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arXiv

From Approachability Residuals to Anytime-Valid Evidence: The Online Convex Geometry of Testing by Betting

Jinze Zhao

Betting-based sequential tests and Blackwell approachability are linked by a rate-explicit reduction through support-function residuals. For a compact convex target $S$ and vector observations $r_t$, an OCO learner selects a predictable normal $w_t$ and produces $q_t=\langle w_t,r_t\rangle-h_S(w_t)$. We prove the exact pathwise identity $$ \dist(\bar r_T,S) =\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^Tq_t+\frac{\Reg_T}{T}. $$ When $|q_t|\leq B$, composing this identity with one-sided betting yields a finite-time transfer: if the OCO and log-wealth regrets are at most $a_T$ and $\ell_T$, respectively, then a target gap exceeding \[ \frac{a_T}{T} +2B\sqrt{\frac{\log(1/α)+\ell_T}{T}} \] forces rejection by time $T$, while non-rejection certifies the converse radius. We then formulate a controlled stochastic experiment in which an action selected after $w_t$ satisfies Blackwell's supporting-halfspace condition for every null mean payoff. The resulting wealth is an e-process under adaptive nulls; sublinear OCO regret gives stochastic approachability, whereas persistent mean separation under an alternative gives exponential wealth at rate at least $δ^2/(4B^2)$. Deterministic Blackwell games and passive tests are, respectively, the noise-free and singleton-action cases of this protocol. Bounded two-sample means, kernel MMD, and active heterogeneous data sources instantiate the reduction. The resulting connection is exact algebraically, quantitative at finite time, and operational when experiments are controlled.

arXiv

WDL-OPD: Weak-Driven On-Policy Distillation via Mixture-Constrained Co-Training

Zehao Chen, Gongxun Li, Tianxiang Ai, Yifei Li, Zixuan Huang, Wang Zhou, Tao Huang, Fuzhen Zhuang, Xianglong Liu, Jianxin Li, Deqing Wang, Yikun Ban

On-policy distillation (OPD) aligns a student with a teacher on trajectories sampled from the student itself, reducing the train-test state mismatch of offline distillation. The same feedback loop can nevertheless be unstable: each update changes both the policy and the states on which the next update is computed. We introduce WDL-OPD, a mixture-constrained co-training method with two trainable policies. An anchor policy generates every rollout, an auxiliary policy evaluates the same visited states, and a geometric mixture of their token distributions is matched to a frozen teacher by reverse KL. Both policies receive gradient. We show that freezing the auxiliary recovers an anchor-plus-contrast proxy target closely related to OPD$^2$ and W2S-OPD, whereas joint training creates branch-level degrees of freedom that a static delta cannot express. In recorded Qwen3 experiments at 1.7B and 4B scale, WDL-OPD produces the strongest student checkpoint in each of four scale-domain settings. It raises MATH500 accuracy from 0.630 to 0.685 at 4B and from 0.521 to 0.585 at 1.7B. In code generation, seven single-policy OPD configurations exhibit entropy growth or trajectory degradation, while co-training reaches independently re-evaluated development scores of 0.637 and 0.375. Because several comparisons differ in curriculum or initialization, these results support a stabilization hypothesis rather than a universal causal claim. We provide the exact training algorithm, failure evidence, and the controlled comparison matrix needed to test that hypothesis.

arXiv

How Simple Can It Get? From Interpretable Equations to Readable Rules for Financial Decision Making

Adia Lumadjeng, Ilker Birbil, Erman Acar

In regulated domains such as finance, a model that cannot be explained cannot be deployed, yet many interpretable classifiers defeat their own purpose by producing formulas with dozens of features that no regulator could read. We take the reverse direction. Starting from an interpretable classifier expressed as a single equation over the input features, we progressively simplify it into more readable forms, including a pruned monomial, a directional if--then rule, and the integer scorecards and tallies that finance already deploys. Because the equation is itself the predictive model rather than a post-hoc explanation we can directly quantify what is lost under each simplification. Across four financial datasets, we find that pruning is nearly free and that fidelity can erode faster than predictive performance, allowing simpler rules to remain effective classifiers without faithfully reproducing the original model. A human assessment shows that simplification improves perceived readability, while preferences for different representations vary by professional background. Beyond measuring these losses empirically, we show that some can be anticipated from the original model: we derive a bound on the change caused by pruning and predict how faithfully a rule retaining only the direction of each feature's effect preserves the original ranking.

arXiv

LITEWAY: LIghtweight HAR via Temporal Efficient highWAY

Dominique Nshimyimana, Vitor Fortes Rey, Mengxi Liu, Bo Zhou, Paul Lukowicz

Wearable human activity recognition (HAR) remains challenging due to the computational and energy constraints of deep learning models on resource-limited devices. Existing lightweight approaches often rely on recurrent architectures (e.g., GRU and LSTM), limiting parallelism and increasing inference latency. We propose LITEWAY, a modality-agnostic, fully convolutional framework for multichannel sensor time series that replaces recurrent temporal modeling with structured convolutional decomposition. LITEWAY combines lightweight convolutional blocks, strided temporal processing, and convolution-attention pooling to efficiently capture temporal dependencies while reducing computational complexity. We evaluate LITEWAY on 16 HAR datasets against TinyHAR, TinierHAR, and MLP-HAR. LITEWAY achieves competitive macro F1 while reducing model size by 4.06x-9.52x (Light) and 3.87x-9.07x (Full) compared with TinyHAR and TinierHAR. Deployment experiments further show energy reductions of 2.29x-3.14x (Light) and 1.46x-2.01x (Full) compared with TinierHAR and MLP-HAR, highlighting efficient fully convolutional temporal modeling for wearable HAR. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/dominique-nshimyimana/liteway.

arXiv

From Objectives to What Models Learn: A Landau Theory of Invariant Learning

Pinli Wang, Yue He, Peng Cui

Invariant learning seeks representations that remain predictive across environments, yet the behavior of its objectives along the regularization path is often opaque. We address this objective-behavior gap by viewing representation learning as multimode magnetization and deriving, from concrete invariant-learning objectives, a Landau-type effective free energy whose low-order coefficients form objective signatures and induce distinct regularization phenotypes. Effective quadratic corrections move the phase boundary and enable finite-strength mode elimination; quartic corrections regulate post-onset amplitude and typically leave residual loading at finite strength; higher-order structure governs non-monotone tails, instability, and collapse at large regularization. In a canonical bilinear model, the theory yields closed-form phase boundaries and steady-state loadings, as well as distinct critical strengths for shortcut and stable modes that define a selective-retention window. Controlled experiments confirm the predicted phase boundaries, loadings, and regularization phenotypes. In one- and two-hidden-layer ReLU networks, the same signatures remain predictive of qualitative regularization-path behavior despite depth-dependent shifts in scale. A matrix extension generalizes the framework to coupled collective modes and yields a spectral phase-boundary criterion. Together, the framework turns low-order objective signatures into predictions of regularization phenotypes and, ultimately, of what models learn as regularization varies.

arXiv

Regret, equilibrium, and learning in games: A guided tour

Panayotis Mertikopoulos

This note aims to serve as an entry point to the literature on learning in games, a topic with significant theoretical appeal and a wide range of applications -- from machine learning and data science to economics and beyond. Our presentation is structured around two complementary viewpoints: We first consider a single agent -- the learner -- engaged in a sequential decision process in an unknown, non-stationary, and possibly adversarial environment. We then examine what happens when the environment is shaped by the decisions of several interacting agents, not necessarily aware of each other's actions or goals, and all seeking to improve their individual rewards. In this general context, we examine a family of regularized learning policies based on best-responding to the past history of play, up to a regularization penalty intended to encourage exploration and prevent over-commitment to suboptimal choices. In the single-agent setting, we present some basic regret bounds for regularized learning in adversarial multi-armed bandits; in the multi-agent setting, we describe an ergodic equilibrium convergence result for zero-sum games in the spirit of classical results on fictitious play, as well as a "folk theorem" linking strategic and dynamic notions of stability -- Nash equilibria and attracting points of regularized learning, respectively. We pay special attention to the information available to the players and, through a unified analysis framework, we study both oracle- and payoff-based (bandit) methods. Our goal is to provide a coherent and comprehensible -- albeit, by necessity, not comprehensive -- account of some recent ideas in the field, and to discuss their implications for the study of rationality.

arXiv

Coordinate-Residual Physics-Driven Neural Network for Electromagnetic Inverse Scattering

Yutong Du, Zicheng Liu, Bo Qi, Yali Zong, Peixian Han

Electromagnetic inverse scattering is a nonlinear and ill-posed problem, where accurate reconstruction is challenging due to measurement limitations, noise, and high computational costs, especially for 3-D imaging. Although physics-driven neural networks (PDNNs) reduce the dependence on labeled training data, existing accelerated PDNN frameworks often rely on preliminary reconstruction-based region selection, which may introduce instability when the selected region is inaccurate. In this paper, a coordinate-residual physics-driven neural network (CRPDNN) is proposed for 3-D electromagnetic inverse scattering. The proposed solver directly reconstructs the unknown contrast distribution using normalized spatial coordinates and a residual convolutional network, without requiring a preliminary reconstruction. For the reported noise-free 3-D synthetic cases, CRPDNN achieves an average relative error of 2.10\%, compared with 7.97\% for CSI and 3.99\% for $L_{2/3}$-FBE-WCIE, while providing approximately 5.5- and 12.1-fold speedups over the two baselines, respectively. Supplementary 2-D comparisons further confirm its stability and computational efficiency relative to existing PDNN frameworks. CRPDNN also maintains reliable reconstruction performance under noisy measurements, and the 3-D Fresnel experiments further indicate its potential for practical imaging applications. The related code is available at https://github.com/Physics-driven-methods.

arXiv

Test-Time Augmentation for LLMs: When Input Diversity Beats Output Diversity at Matched Compute

Nikita Kozodoi, Zainab Afolabi, Jack Butler

Test-time scaling improves LLM accuracy but multiplies inference cost, making the accuracy gained per unit of compute the metric that matters in deployment. Self-consistency is one of the established approaches, which spends this budget entirely on the output side by sampling repeated reasoning paths. We study Test-Time Augmentation (TTA), which extends self-consistency by also perturbing the input, aggregating predictions across transformed versions of the input, and ask whether input-side diversity converts compute into accuracy more efficiently than output-side diversity. We perform a systematic, matched-compute comparison: we evaluate three simple input-side strategies (semantic rephrasing, lexical perturbations, and visual transformations) across six datasets covering general and multilingual knowledge, mathematical reasoning, multi-modal question answering, and sentiment classification, against chain-of-thought prompting and self-consistency. Semantic rephrasing delivers consistent and statistically significant accuracy gains while Pareto-dominating self-consistency on cost-effectiveness, delivering roughly 1.8X more accuracy per dollar and outperforming it on five of six tasks. We further analyze the number of augmentations, multi-modal strategies, and base model scaling, finding that TTA is most cost-effective for mid-tier models where a stronger model is unavailable or too expensive. Our findings indicate that for current mid-tier LLMs, varying the input converts inference compute into accuracy more efficiently than varying the reasoning path alone. The TTA implementation is available at https://github.com/aws-samples/sample-genai-reflection-for-bedrock.

arXiv

A Machine Learning Based Search for Lunar Anomalies

Cameron Kelahan, Daniel Angerhausen, Adam Lesnikowski, Valentin T. Bickel

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has been collecting high-resolution images (at around 0.5-2 meters per pixel linearly with its Narrow Angle Camera) of the Moon since 2009, amassing a large dataset of images and offering researchers the opportunity to study the surface of the Moon at unprecedented scale. Here, we aim to test the abilities of the Beta-Variational Autoencoder (VAE) created by Lesnikowski et al. (2024), an unsupervised learning model which identifies anomalous features across the Moon's surface, locating not only scientifically useful geologic formations such as rockfall deposits, fresh impact craters, irregular mare patches, or volcanic pits/collapsed lava tubes, but also artificial objects such as landed spacecraft. This investigation further gauged the model's ability to locate anomalous surface features, successfully recovering two places of interest (Plaskett Crater and Paracelsus C Crater) and numerous landed technological assets at a statistically significant rate.

arXiv

In-Context Density Estimation for Tabular Data

Patryk Marszałek, Jacek Tabor, Marek Śmieja

Density estimation underlies many unsupervised tasks on tabular data such as anomaly detection, out-of-distribution detection, and data augmentation. Although all these problems reduce to questions about where probability mass lies, they are typically solved individually by fitting a separate model to each dataset, with its own hyperparameters and tuning budget. We introduce ICED, an in-context, energy-based density estimator that removes this per-dataset cost. ICED is a transformer-based model pretrained once on a synthetic prior built specifically for density estimation under an objective that fits log-density where it is informative and preserves its ordering elsewhere. In the inference, it reads a dataset as context and returns an unnormalized log-density for any query point in a single forward pass, with no fitting, sampling, or hyperparameter selection. A single frozen ICED model then drives four tasks usually handled by four specialized pipelines: density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, unsupervised anomaly detection, and generative augmentation. Across all four, it is competitive with the strongest task-specific method, while being the only approach that needs no retraining, no tuning, and no labels to move between them. The code is available at https://github.com/gmum/iced.

arXiv

TEPA: Revoking Stale Memories for Conflict-Robust Language Agents

Yan Zhou, Yue Ouyang, Kaiyang Zheng, Suncheng Xiang

Long-term memory enables language agents to reuse past facts, preferences, and task experience. Persistence also creates a central falsifiability problem: when the world changes, stale memories can remain retrievable and pollute the prompt. We characterize this failure mode as memory pollution: degradation caused by active memories that newer conflicting evidence has superseded. We introduce TEPA, a revocable evidence-memory mechanism that makes validity an explicit state of memory. TEPA represents observations as keyed precedents and revokes active precedents when fresh evidence contradicts them under the same key, allowing retrieval to draw from current evidence while preserving revoked history for audit. Across controlled hidden-regime drift, real file-backed executable drift, and preference-update streams, revocation prevents stale active memory from remaining in the retrieval set after reversal. In controlled drift over 50 seeds, append-only and last-write-wins memory fell below no memory during full reversal (append-only and last-write-wins both 0.210, no memory 0.309, TEPA 0.950), and the same pattern reproduced under real file execution (append-only 0.203, no memory 0.298, TEPA 0.950). On clean MemoryAgentBench SH-6k, TEPA matches a strong last-write-wins cache, confirming that current-key replacement is the decisive operation for single-hop fact consolidation. Boundary tests on multi-hop and very long-context MemoryAgentBench settings expose retrieval-chain and context-selection bottlenecks beyond fact-level validity tracking. Together, these results establish lifecycle revocation as a core memory operation for agents that must falsify, audit, and later re-promote evolving knowledge.

arXiv

CoBa: Cost-Effective Test-Time Scaling via Compute-Balanced Routing

Yan Zhou, Yue Ouyang, Kaiyang Zheng, Suncheng Xiang

Test-time scaling is often implemented by spending more compute along one axis: sampling more solutions, extending a chain of thought, or applying a stronger evaluator. Under a fixed inference budget, these choices compete. This paper formulates test-time reasoning as a compute-allocation problem in which a system must decide whether the next unit of compute should be spent on generation, verification, or stopping. We introduce CoBa, a compute-balanced routing policy that first obtains a small set of candidates, applies cheap verification broadly, and routes uncertain or high-value candidates to stronger verification. On 3,129 example-generator evaluations spanning MATH-500, AIME 2024/2025, AMC 2023, and procedural symbolic reasoning, CoBa-Routed-Strong reaches 85.13% macro accuracy, statistically matching a self-evaluation weighted-voting proxy at 85.20% while using 49.1% fewer parameter-weighted tokens. It also matches best-of-16 majority voting within 0.01 macro-accuracy points while using 58.9% fewer parameter-weighted tokens; paired tests retain a small best-of-16 edge at substantially higher cost. Paired bootstrap tests show significant gains over single-sample decoding, while the remaining gap to the pool oracle exposes headroom for sharper routing. For local reasoning systems, test-time scaling becomes a question of where the next computation is most valuable.

arXiv

Control-Oriented Scenario Tree Construction through Reinforcement Learning

Fabio Pavirani, Bert Claessens, Pierre Pinson, Chris Develder

Multistage stochastic model predictive control (MPC) handles uncertainty by optimizing over a scenario tree, a finite branching approximation of future outcomes constructed from sampled forecasts. To build such a tree, conventional methods focus on matching the underlying probability distribution---e.g., via Wasserstein-based scenario reduction---but improved distributional accuracy does not necessarily yield better control performance. We propose a control-oriented approach that learns scenario tree construction directly from its impact on downstream decisions. Fixing the tree topology, we formulate tree construction as a sequential assignment of sampled scenarios to leaves. This assignment is parameterized by an attention-based policy over the scenario set and trained using reinforcement learning, with closed-loop control profit as the objective. Training is stabilized by an asymmetric critic that leverages realized future trajectories. We evaluate the method on a risk-averse battery arbitrage problem. Across a range of forecast set sizes, the learned construction consistently achieves the highest profit, outperforming classical forward and backward reduction methods and certainty-equivalent (single-trajectory forecast) control. The learned policy also exhibits greater robustness on challenging instances, consistently demonstrating better tail-risk characteristics. Analysis of the resulting trees indicates that our method constructs compact, selectively branching structures that capture high-impact events while keeping most trajectories nearly deterministic. These findings highlight that the value of a scenario tree depends critically on the decisions it supports, and provide an effective framework to train scenario tree constructors merely based on the closed-loop control optimization signal.

arXiv

Hallucinations and Constraints : Regulating surgical workflow recognition beyond accuracy

John S. H. Baxter, Pierre Jannin

Hallucinations are a major concern for the integration of artificial intelligence into medicine, although less explored in the realm of medical image processing. Unlike problems in natural text understanding and reasoning therewith, determining whether or not predictions derived from biomedical images and signals is less intuitively clear. This article suggests that topological errors could constitute hallucinations in a way that can be more readily measured and thus regulated. Certain of these properties for certain types of problems, such as biomedical signal segmentation, can be rephrased as linear temporal logic predicates, a number of which can be explicitly enforced using probabilistic graphical models. Our simulations show the potential of these explicitly constrained predicates for the case of automatic surgical phase recognition in robot-assisted hysterectomy, improving accuracy by approximately 10% while removing the vast majority of topological errors, suggesting that mathematical guarantees of correctness can supplement other empirical forms of regulating machine learning in medical image computing and computer-assisted interventions.

arXiv

MaxModShift: Model Privacy via Designed Shifts

Nomaan A. Kherani, Urbashi Mitra

Model learning by an eavesdropper is treated as an estimation problem in a federated environment. The Fisher Information Matrix for the eavesdropper's estimation problem is driven to singularity through a signaling design; this ensures that the eavesdropper cannot learn the model. Herein, the innovation of prior designs is that model shifts are designed to maximize the difference in the model learned by Eve and the central server while satisfying a transmission power constraint for the agents. Two shift schemes are provided. MaxModShift outperforms a prior ModShift design while requiring lesser transmission power. Compared to a noise injection scheme, MaxModShift performs better while requiring a lower bandwidth secret channel and a reduced average power consumption.

arXiv

Targeted Label-Flipping and Oversampling Attacks on Federated Conditional GANs

Panav Shah, Avishek Ghosh

In a federated learning setup for GANs, several adversarial attacks are possible. One such attack is label flipping, in which malicious clients deliberately alter label information during local training in order to manipulate the global generator. The objective of this attack is to skew the learned generation distribution so that samples conditioned on a target label are instead mapped to a source class. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of label flipping attacks in federated GANs through both theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation. We further consider an oversampling based variant, in which malicious clients upweight poisoned samples during local training to amplify their influence on the aggregated global model. We quantify the resulting distributional shift by computing the Kullback Leibler divergence between the clean and poisoned class conditional distributions, and show both analytically and on FEMNIST, MNIST, and CIFAR10 that the semantic damage of the attack grows linearly in the effective poisoning strength while deviation from the true target distribution grows only quadratically, making the attack effective yet difficult to detect from label agnostic metrics.

arXiv

$A^2E$ : An End-to-End Agent Auditing Engine

Haoning Wang, Mingxun Zhang, Chenyue Yu, Yingjun Shang, Xia Hu, Guanchu Wang, Na Zou

With the rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs), harnesses have become essential infrastructure for deploying agents across a wide range of domains. The fast-evolving harness ecosystem has also made rigorous capability evaluation increasingly important. However, efficiently building an end-to-end, systematic, and comprehensive evaluation pipeline remains a significant challenge. To address this challenge, we introduce $A^2E$ (Agent Auditing Engine), an end-to-end evaluation engine designed for agent harnesses. $A^2E$ leverages our newly proposed Agent Task Protocol (ATP) to enable the rapid integration of evaluation tasks with different harnesses. Through an automatically instrumented Monitor, it captures and generates standardized execution traces during experiments. In the Evaluation stage, $A^2E$ systematically assesses harness capabilities using a suite of multidimensional metrics. Compared with correctness alone, these metrics provide a more fine-grained characterization of differences among harnesses in execution efficiency, tool use, task planning, and error recovery. Experiments conducted with $A^2E$ further reveal that model-harness combinations exhibit substantial performance variation across different types of tasks, and that no single combination consistently outperforms all others across every task. These findings not only demonstrate the necessity of systematic evaluation but also provide useful guidance for the co-evolving of models and harnesses. Our code is available at https://github.com/datamllab/A2E.

arXiv

SCALE: Scientific Concept Aggregation via LLMs and Embeddings for Fine-Grained Taxonomy Extension

Daniele Raimondi, Feichi Lu, Oliver Grun, Mariia Eremina, Andrea Perlato

The increasing specialization of scientific research challenges existing classification systems, which provide effective representations of broad disciplines and research topics but often fail to capture the fine-grained conceptual structure of contemporary science. Author keywords offer greater specificity, but their fragmentation, redundancy, and terminological variability limit their use as stable units of knowledge organization. We introduce SCALE (Scientific Concept Aggregation via LLMs and Embeddings), a framework that extends the OpenAlex taxonomy with a new level of scientific Concepts below Topics. Rather than treating keywords as isolated descriptors, SCALE organizes semantically related terms into coherent and interpretable conceptual units and integrates them within the existing disciplinary hierarchy. The framework combines scientific text embeddings, large language models, and graph-based community detection to construct this additional layer at scale. The resulting taxonomy enables scientific literature to be read through an intermediate conceptual level between broad research topics and individual documents. This perspective provides a more detailed representation of how scientific knowledge is structured, specialized, and connected across disciplines. By transforming heterogeneous author terminology into reusable hierarchical units, SCALE offers a foundation for fine-grained scholarly classification, scientometric analysis, research monitoring, and future ontology development.

arXiv

Automated item evaluation: Predicting item acceptance and rejection using LLM-generated critiques

Hotaka Maeda, Yikai Lu

Automated item evaluation (AIE) refers to the use of computational methods to assess item quality without requiring manual expert review or field testing of the items under evaluation. We aimed to build a near-comprehensive AIE model by predicting item acceptance and rejection from item text using historical rejection data from a large-scale standardized testing program. The dataset contained 52,759 English language arts (ELA) and mathematics items with 34% permanently rejected from future operational use. Rejection reasons included poor psychometric properties, content issues, bias and sensitivity concerns, and non-content issues. We fine-tuned a DeBERTaV3-large classifier on raw item text, a second DeBERTa classifier on Qwen3-generated item critiques, and a fusion model combining representations from both. The fusion model achieved the strongest overall performance (Accuracy = .75, F1 = .64, AUC = .80, Sensitivity = .64, Specificity = .81). Prediction for math (F1 = .73, AUC = .86) was considerably more accurate than ELA (F1 = .51, AUC = .72). Lowering the decision threshold from .5 to .25 raised average sensitivity for ELA and math to .88 and .91, while reducing specificity to .31 and .56, respectively, which may be preferable in automated item generation contexts where generating items is cheaper than evaluating them. Incorporating item critiques alongside raw item text improved performance across most rejection reasons. The model assigned higher rejection probabilities to more difficult items. However, the fusion model struggled to identify items flagged for bias, sensitivity, fairness, or accessibility, especially for ELA. These findings suggest that text-based AIE is feasible in some areas and may offer a practical tool for reducing the burden of manual review and field testing, while also underscoring the importance of human review for items with fairness concerns.

arXiv

SAFE-CHEM: Uncertainty-Aware Policy Switching for Robust Robotic Chemistry

Laura Jones, Shazil Shahzad, Ayesha Sana, Gabriella Pizzuto

The deployment of autonomous robotic systems in chemistry laboratories is accelerating experimental workflows and providing the foundational data for AI-driven scientific discovery. However, despite the success of data-driven methods in acquiring dexterous skills, safety remains a primary barrier to their deployment in high-risk domains, such as early-stage materials chemistry experiments. Specifically, learning-based policies frequently struggle to distinguish between safe and unsafe actions, leading to overconfident extrapolation and potentially catastrophic failures. To mitigate these safety risks, we propose SAFE-CHEM, an uncertainty-aware framework designed for robust, learning-based robotic chemists. Our approach leverages an ensemble of recurrent neural network-based imitation learning policies to quantify epistemic uncertainty online through the variance of action predictions. By characterising the success-conditioned density of this variance using kernel density estimation, we introduce a hybrid control architecture that autonomously switches from the learned policy to a deterministic, rule-based backup controller when uncertainty exceeds a calibrated safety threshold. We evaluate SAFE-CHEM across three fundamental laboratory manipulation tasks, where our empirical results demonstrate that this hybrid strategy improves overall task success rates and reduces critical safety violations compared to traditional single-policy baselines. Finally, we demonstrate the practical viability of the framework through zero-shot sim-to-real transfer onto a physical Franka Production 3 robot manipulator.

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