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arXiv

Compute-Optimal Is Not Cluster-Optimal: Systems-Aware Scaling for Sparse Mixture-of-Experts

Soumajyoti Sarkar, Yuxin Tang, Sheng Zha

In large-scale pretraining, the algorithm, architecture, and systems decisions are conventionally made in disconnected stages. A scaling law stage selects an architecture and training recipe, optimizing loss under compute constraints, and a separate systems stage then optimizes the implementation for hardware efficiency. In this work, we develop MOSAIC, which formulates model architecture and systems co-design as an optimization problem. MOSAIC couples a predictive scaling law with a calibrated performance model that estimates Model FLOPs Utilization (MFU), communication cost, memory footprint, and the best parallel layout. We instantiate the framework for sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models, where expert count, routing sparsity, and other MoE layer dimensions affect both the loss and systems efficiency. We fit a scaling law on sparse MoE models trained on text data, whose scaling dimensions include the sparsity factor, which is the fraction of model parameters inactive per token in a forward pass. The scaling law sweeps in our work span active parameters from $104$ million to $2.7$ billion and total model sizes reaching $79$ billion parameters. We show that, within the calibrated sparsity range, an efficiency-agnostic model-FLOPs budget admits no interior optimal sparsity. The fitted loss decreases monotonically with sparser models and the compute optimum lies at the upper boundary of the data support. An optimal sparsity in MoE models instead emerges under the cluster's systems constraints, as captured by MOSAIC. Our results argue for a shift towards unified architecture and systems co-design for frontier language model training.

arXiv

$β$-VAEs as Effective Theories: Tolerance-Dependent Dimension

Johannes Hirn

In a $β$-VAE, increasing the regularization strength acts as a spectral cutoff by collapsing low-utility latent coordinates. In the linear Gaussian VAE, the collapse order matches the ranking of reconstruction utilities exactly, because both are set by the PCA spectrum. We ask which parts of this picture survive in fully connected nonlinear VAEs trained on WorldClim. We find that nonlinear interactions shift and broaden collapse onsets, so thresholds no longer coincide exactly with utilities. However, the common ordering is preserved over the resolved ranks, so the spectral cutoff still acts as a utility cutoff and the effective-description logic carries through. The resulting effective-dimension curves reveal a head--tail tradeoff: increasing depth concentrates utility into the first few coordinates but worsens tail fidelity.

arXiv

BREAD: Baseline-Referenced Explanations for Anomaly Diagnosis

Jiaqi Qiu, Rob Goedhart, Jannis Kurtz, Inez M. Zwetsloot

Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based prospective anomaly detection methods are increasingly deployed in high-dimensional and nonlinear settings. Among these approaches, AI-based statistical process monitoring (SPM) is widely used, providing a structured framework for prospective monitoring. Once an anomaly is detected, a diagnosis method is needed to identify the features driving the flagged observation away from normal behaviour. Traditional SPM diagnosis methods are typically designed for specific detection models and cannot be directly applied to AI-based methods. Model-agnostic explainable AI (XAI) offers a general framework for feature relevance explanation. However, existing methods suffer from scalability limitations or assign relevance to noise features, reducing diagnosis accuracy. We propose a scalable, baseline-referenced diagnosis method that uses both the anomalous observation and normal baseline information. We provide mathematical guarantees that under a mean-shift anomaly setting, the proposed method achieves higher faithfulness in detecting the features causing the anomaly compared to LIME. Simulation studies and a real-world case study validate the effectiveness of the proposed method and show that it generates more faithful and accurate diagnosis results for AI-based prospective anomaly detection methods.

arXiv

MARCO: Click-Intent Decomposition for Calibrated Ads Conversion Prediction

Shiwen Shen, Xiru Huang, Liang Luo, Jianbo Sun, He Lyu, Zihang Fu, Ivonne Xu, Zhizhuo Li, Zhengyu Zhang, Pei-Ju Sung, Yunmiao Wang, Zixuan Wang, Zhengli Zhao, Qiang Jin, Mike Jermann, Mingda Li, Yang Xiao, Bhavana Challa, Brooke Bian, Yang Li, Ashish Chamoli, Bibek Bhusal, Danning Di, Yuan Jin, Meet Raval, Zhiwen Chen, Boyao Sun, Shuguang Wang, Yunlong He, Yantao Yao, Sagar Chordia, Wenlin Chen, Santanu Kolay, Qin Huang, Ellie Wen

Not all clicks are equal. Industrial ads ranking decouples conversion probability into click-through rate (CTR) and post-click conversion rate (CVR), yet treats every click as the same event. In reality, users provide a free, self-generated signal of intent through their physical UI interactions. Different click types on the same ad exhibit a 4-fold difference in actual conversion rates. By conflating these signals, the standard CVR model under-predicts high-intent clicks and over-predicts low-intent ones, which is a bias masked by near-perfect aggregate calibration. We propose MARCO (Multi-intent Ads Ranking Composition Optimization), a framework that resolves this bias by decomposing each click by intent. Using the logged click type as a free behavioral label, MARCO trains per-intent CVR heads on homogeneous populations, and at serving time composes their per-intent CVR estimates under a predicted distribution over intents. Theoretically, we prove that decomposition never raises population risk, give the exact headroom under squared loss and non-negativity under the deployed loss, and show through a routing-efficiency dial how much of it reaches serving. Because the population-optimal score is unchanged, any gain is a finite-capacity estimation and calibration effect that we validated both offline and online. For deployment at scale, we further cast multi-impression, multi-click attribution as credit assignment with a bias-variance tradeoff analogous to RL return estimation, showing last-impression, first-click attribution is the low-bias, low-variance, deterministic choice under production constraints, and derive three consistency conditions enforced end-to-end at scale. Deployed at binary intent granularity, MARCO corrects per-intent calibration to approximately 100%, lifts conversions per click by +2.80%, and drives +0.98% cumulative improvement in topline metrics.

arXiv

Retrieval-Corrected Conformal Prediction for Time Series

Sangjin Jin, Kangmin Kim, Junhyeong Lee, Yongjae Lee

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

arXiv

Measuring Semantic Abstractness of SAE Features via Nonlocality

Chuqiao Lin, Shivaji Sondhi, Xiao-Liang Qi

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have helped uncover mechanistic explanations for LLM behaviours such as reasoning, jailbreaking etc., via understanding the corresponding task-relevant and causally effective features. To evaluate such mechanistic explanations, downstream studies must distinguish surface lexical features from genuinely high-level ones. However, neither an autointerp-based semantic description nor causal steering utility fully resolves the abstraction level of a feature. To this end, we introduce \emph{Feature Nonlocality} (FNL), defined as the entropy of the normalized per-position influence on an SAE feature's activation. We report that FNL correlates with existing LLM-based proxy metrics of feature semantic abstractness, and successfully distinguishes context-dependent reasoning features from token-driven ones, correctly assigning the higher FNL to the contextual feature in $73$--$84\%$ of randomly drawn pairs that consist of one contextual and one token-level feature. We demonstrate two downstream applications. We audit SAE-based features used for jailbreak mitigation and find surprisingly that most effective features are positional features with low FNL rather than genuinely recognizing harmful intents. We report that steering high-FNL features in DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B improves MATH-500 accuracy by $4.6$ points over the unsteered model and outperforms steering low-FNL features, though the gains are model-specific. We conclude that FNL provides an LLM-independent, label-free, correlational witness of the abstraction level of an SAE feature, with applications in evaluating mechanistic explanations as well as selecting features for downstream interventions.

arXiv

Benchmarking LLM-Guided Control-Plane Policies for Backend Fault Isolation in HAProxy

Aman Chauhan, Vishnu Pendyala

Static load balancers cannot mitigate a backend that is degraded rather than down: round-robin and least-connections keep routing traffic to a server returning HTTP 500s until an operator intervenes. We ask whether a Large Language Model can replace the static routing policy itself, reading HAProxy and Prometheus telemetry every 10 seconds and isolating faulty servers through guardrailed calls to the HAProxy Data Plane API. On a reproducible benchmark with a persistent structural fault built into roughly one-third of a heterogeneous fleet, we sweep 15 open-weight models across five families (0.35B to 35B total parameters; dense, mixture-of-experts, and efficient-sparse architectures), reasoning modes, fleet scales of 3 to 9 backends, and two routing algorithms, totaling 240 runs. We find a capability threshold near 3B active parameters. Below it, LLM policies are typically unreliable and sometimes worse than no policy; above it, every model, regardless of architecture, saturates near an 88% reduction in client-perceived 5xx errors over the static baseline. The threshold is approximate: Gemma 4 E2B clears it with 2B active parameters, while the dense 3B Granite 4.0 Micro does not. The availability gain has costs. Draining concentrates load onto surviving servers, inflating tail latency 2.6 to 2.8 times, and enabling reasoning multiplies token spend roughly tenfold, overrunning the control interval and degrading effectiveness. The efficient operating point is a supra-threshold model in its cheapest non-reasoning mode, wrapped inside deterministic guardrails.

arXiv

Robust Multi-Agent Bandits with Heavy-Tailed Rewards and Information Asymmetry

Daphne Feng, Ricardo Parada, Lily Jiang, Sophia Yi, William Chang

The multi-armed bandit problem is a central framework in sequential decision-making, extensively studied under sub-Gaussian reward assumptions. However, real-world applications often involve heavy-tailed reward distributions and decentralized, information-asymmetric interactions. We study multi-agent multi-armed bandits with heavy-tailed rewards under three information-asymmetry regimes: unobserved actions with common rewards, observed actions with independent rewards, and unobserved actions with independent rewards. We develop robust decentralized algorithms for each setting and derive regret guarantees that nearly match centralized heavy-tailed rates. Experiments on a Pareto-distributed reward environment validate our theoretical findings and illustrate the trade-offs between synchronization, coordination, and exploration across the three regimes.

arXiv

Coordinating the Unknown Lipschitz Constant in Multiplayer Bandits

Ricardo Parada, Chenzhang Zhao, William Chang

Motivated by decentralized applications, we study cooperative multi-agent bandits in continuous (Lipschitz) action spaces when the Lipschitz constant is unknown. We consider three information structures: (A)~unobserved actions with common rewards, (B)~observed actions with independent rewards, and (C)~unobserved actions with independent rewards. In each case we design and analyze an algorithm that estimates the Lipschitz constant, chooses a discretization of the joint action space, and applies a cooperative bandit method to the induced discrete problem. Players never communicate once learning starts, so the central difficulty is that they must reach the \emph{same} discretization from their own data. We prove regret guarantees showing that common rewards and observable actions each supply this agreement for free, and that in their absence agreement can still be bought, through a dithered quantization of the estimate, at no cost in the leading order of the regret.

arXiv

Link-adaptive digital twin for robust physical-layer modeling in hybrid-amplified ultra-wideband optical networks

Xiaoxuan Gao, Rentao Gu, Yingchun Wang, Xinyi Liu, Junshi Gao, Yuefeng Ji

Accurate physical-layer modeling is increasingly essential for reliable ultra-wideband operation and capacity optimization, especially under the intensified inter-channel stimulated Raman scattering (ISRS) effect. This paper proposes the link-adaptive digital twin (LA-DT) for hybrid-amplified ultra-wideband links to overcome the generalization and speed limitations of existing methods, achieving accurate modeling and robust generalized signal-to-noise ratio (GSNR) estimation across diverse links. First, to address EDFA heterogeneity, the GSNR modeling task is decomposed into three key power predictions: ASE, NLI, and signal powers before EDFA entry. Second, to enhance cross-scenario generalization, three dedicated DT models are developed using a novel neural architecture with linear modulation layers (LMLs). Third, for rapid adaptation to unseen scenarios with limited data, three domain discriminators guide few-shot fine-tuning of the LMLs. Fourth, the LA-DT explicitly accounts for Raman amplifier (RA) insertion loss, improving practical deployment reliability. Results across 35 scenarios show that LA-DT reduces RMSE for NLI, ASE, and signal power predictions to 0.151, 0.111, and 0.113 dBm with improvements of 56.0%, 58.4%, and 52.7% over the baseline,and achieves an average GSNR estimation RMSE of 0.114 dBm (55.8% improvement). For 12 unseen scenarios, the LA-DT maintains high accuracy through few-shot fine-tuning with only 20 samples per scenario, achieving an average GSNR RMSE of 0.159 dB and demonstrating strong adaptability and robustness.

arXiv

CARB: A Characterization-Guided Framework for CNN Inference Cost Prediction and Deployment Screening

Linh Nguyen, Zhixin Pan

Accurate pre-deployment estimation of CNN inference cost--energy, latency, and peak memory--is increasingly critical as models are deployed on resource-constrained GPU platforms. Existing approaches rely on FLOPs, latency measurements, or single-device profiling as energy proxies, overlooking the non-linear interactions between architectural design and hardware load. We present a workload characterization study of 13 419 CNN configurations on two GPU platforms (RTX 5090 and RTX 3080) under GPU telemetry, revealing that energy, latency, and memory exhibit fundamentally distinct scaling behaviors: energy and latency diverge by 3x under high computational demand, and cross-GPU transferability differs by target--energy and latency require platform-specific models while memory transfers well across the two tested platforms. Building on these characterization findings, we develop CARB, a cascade-blended ensemble that jointly predicts all three targets with R2 ~0.99, and a two-stage deployment screening workflow that eliminates over 90% of candidates in seconds, reducing large design spaces to a Pareto-prioritized shortlist validated against real hardware.

arXiv

Exploration-Driven Personalized Federated Reinforcement Learning via Intrinsic Motivation

Md Rafid Islam, Rafsan Jany, Zahid Hasan, Ratun Rahman

Personalized Federated Reinforcement Learning (PFRL) takes a decentralized approach to storing and accessing information based on past experiences while keeping each client's data private during the learning of each client's policy. Many current methods for PFRL rely heavily on exploiting existing reinforcement learning reward signals to derive an optimal policy for each client, thereby neglecting exploration in non-stationary or sparse-reward environments. In this work, we introduce a new exploration-driven framework, Exploration-Driven Personalized Federated Reinforcement Learning via Intrinsic Motivation (EDPFRL-IM), that leverages an inherent curiosity-driven exploration at each client to promote local exploration and protect client privacy. Furthermore, to facilitate policy discovery via exploration in previously unexplored state spaces, clients add an intrinsic random network distillation (RND) signal to their extrinsic reward. Additionally, the server does not have access to clients' raw experiences or local gradient estimates; instead, the server sends global exploration priors and collects minimal novelty summaries from each client to enable both diverse and coordinated exploration among clients. Experiments in benchmark environments show that our framework outperforms average PFRL benchmarks in policy personalization and sample efficiency, primarily in delayed and sparse reward systems. Overall, EDPFRL-IM enables the integration of a flexible exploratory learning structure into federated reinforcement learning systems while preserving client privacy.

arXiv

Multi-Granular Rationale-Guided Molecular LLM for Property Prediction

Junwoo Park, Minyoung Shin, Cheol Soon Lee, Sujee Lee

Large language models (LLMs) are widely applied across chemical tasks, such as molecular property prediction, which underpins drug discovery. Molecular LLMs represent a molecule through several modalities, notably a 1D SMILES sequence or a 2D molecular graph. Both encode molecular information implicitly, so the contribution of individual substructures remains opaque. Retrieval and augmentation methods add context, but from external sources. However, the cues chemists reason over are the internal substructures that drive a property up or down. We propose MR-MoL, a multi-granular rationale-guided molecular LLM that supplies this evidence directly. A fine-tuned GNN scores each substructure through masking, and the most influential ones are serialized as a ranked, direction-tagged rationale that the LLM reads alongside the SMILES sequence and molecular graph. The rationale spans three levels of granularity: Murcko scaffolds with their side chains, BRICS fragments, and functional groups. This is, to our knowledge, the first method to expose GNN-derived attributions to an LLM as evidence for property prediction. On eight MoleculeNet tasks, MR-MoL achieves the best overall results among generalist models and narrows the gap to specialist models tuned for each task. Five diagnostics further confirm that the model reads the rationale rather than merely benefiting from its presence. Its direction, rank, and substructure each shape the prediction, and its attributions reproduce known structure-property relationships.

arXiv

Stay or Stray - A Dynamical Systems Viewpoint of Popularity Bias

Sarvesh Shashidhar, Lankireddy Prabhat, Arpit Agarwal, D. Manjunath, Karan Bhukar, Tanmay Khandelwal

Popularity bias in recommendation systems arises when a majority user class generates disproportionate interaction data, causing the system to increasingly favour it while degrading recommendation quality for niche users. While extensive empirical evidence of popularity bias exists, the dynamics leading to its emergence are not well understood. In this work, we study the coupled evolution of recommender model updates and user engagement through the lens of dynamical systems. We formulate a stochastic process and analyse its asymptotic behaviour through an ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework grounded in two-time-scale stochastic approximation. We characterise the equilibrium points of this dynamical system, and derive conditions under which popularity bias is provably emergent, as well as conditions under which symmetric retention of all user classes is possible. We conduct experiments on synthetic data and real-world production logs derived from a large-scale commercial music recommendation platform to validate our theoretical results.

arXiv

A Joint-Distribution Route to Fair Representations with Continuous Sensitive Attributes

Yijin Ni, Xiaoming Huo

Fair representation learning with a continuous sensitive attribute $S$ requires a representation $Z$ that is statistically independent of $S$. Existing criteria, including generalized demographic parity, the expectation of integral probability metrics (EIPM), and mutual information, enforce this independence by averaging a per-value discrepancy between the conditional law $P_{Z \mid S=s}$ and the marginal $P_Z$ over the law of $S$. This approach requires a nonparametric surrogate for the conditional law at each sensitive value. We propose evaluating independence through a single joint discrepancy $d\left(P_{Z, S}, P_Z \otimes P_S\right)$ between the joint law and the product of its marginals. We establish a disintegration identity; on decomposable witness classes it equals the conditional-integral functional that EIPM and generalized demographic parity instantiate. By reaching the same target without the conditional law, this discrepancy can be estimated directly from samples via a dependence statistic rather than conditional smoothing. We take the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC) as an instance of the joint discrepancy $d$ to investigate the statistical efficiency of replacing the conditional formulation. The HSIC estimator is a closed-form $O\left(n^2\right)$ statistic that converges at the $O\left(n^{-1 / 2}\right)$ rate, in contrast to the nonparametric $O\left(n^{-2 / 5}\right)$ rate of the conditional-route estimators. We prove this instance is equivalent to the conditional maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) integral up to an explicit spectral tail. The corresponding algorithmic implementation, i.e., FRHSIC, attains fairness-accuracy tradeoffs comparable to conditional-route basel es while reducing per-epoch training time.

arXiv

Quantum Incremental Learning with Mixed State Prototypes

Yu Wu, Qianli Zhou, Xinyang Deng, Wen Jiang, Kang Hao Cheong, Witold Pedrycz

Incremental learning models are required to learn new classes sequentially without catastrophic forgetting, while operating under parameter and memory constraints. In the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era, although quantum neural networks offer advantages in feature mapping, hardware limitations restrict circuit width. Furthermore, traditional quantum classifiers are constrained by the number of orthogonal basis states, limiting their capacity to accommodate a continually growing number of categories. Thus, we introduce a novel quantum incremental learning framework based on trainable mixed-state prototypes. Its original design incorporates new classes by adding class prototypes rather than increasing the circuit width of the shared quantum backbone. The use of mixed-state prototypes is another key contribution, since they have representation capabilities to represent information than a single pure-state prototype. And the decomposable mixed-state calculation provides lower production costs and a convenient Hilbert-Schmidt (HS) distance metric for classification. Simulation results show that our model achieves high-dimensional feature concentration using a minimal number of qubits, while demonstrating lower computational complexity and robust representation in incremental learning tasks compared with classical baselines.

arXiv

Actionable Hallucination Detection: Translating Latent Uncertainty into Agentic Critique

Sanidhya Vijayvargiya, Rahul Lokesh

Large Language Models (LLMs) deployed as AI agents frequently exhibit user specification-grounding failures, executing hallucinated, undesired actions to force a resolution rather than expressing uncertainty. Existing detection methods fail to provide actionable, real-time correction as they either do not localize the hallucinations, or incur prohibitive inference latency. We introduce the Latent Critic, a lightweight low-rank adapter (LoRA) that operates concurrently with a frozen base LLM's generation to actively restructure the transformer's residual stream---amplifying latent grounding signals and translating them into localized, natural language feedback within a single sequence. By refining the base model's native uncertainty signals, this manipulation of the latent space enables reliable, granular detection without the overhead of secondary inference loops. Mechanistic analysis via activation patching and layer-wise probing shows that this rank-invariant behavior restructures pre-existing uncertainty geometry into a linearly separable representation that transfers more reliably than base model representations alone. Using tool-calling as an instantiation of granular hallucinations, we validate the detection and downstream improvements enabled by the Latent Critic architecture across Qwen and Llama-based models. Demonstrating superior real-time efficacy, our approach significantly outperforms equivalent-scale fine-tuned external detectors, semantic entropy baselines, and passive internal probes in isolating hallucinations, achieving 0.966 AUROC and >80% accuracy in localization (e.g., ungrounded: date). When deployed in a closed-loop ReAct environment, the Critic acts as a negligible latency guardrail, intercepting hallucinations before execution to prevent undesired actions while simultaneously leveraging this specific localized feedback to enable efficient agent self-correction.

arXiv

Recovering Wasted Compute in Autoresearch Agents

Au Kwok Chun, Abhigyan Acherjee, Amrutha Rao, Zaiqian Chen, Kazem Meidani, C. Bayan Bruss, Micah Goldblum

A slew of recent works develop agents for solving research problems end-to-end, a paradigm increasingly referred to as autoresearch. Such agents have inspired large industry investment, motivated by their potential to automate time-consuming human labor and customize machine learning solutions for specialized applications. In this paper, we study the modeling pipeline at the core of these autoresearch systems and identify common failure modes when they are applied to tabular datasets: (1) they waste compute resolving the same bugs over and over again; (2) they often fail to tune hyperparameters even when they have a large remaining compute budget; (3) the tree-search algorithms that power them do not explore; and (4) they perform data analysis, mimicking the humans whose data they are trained on, but do not use that analysis to make downstream decisions. We explore targeted interventions and find that a global debug consultant that shares discovered runtime constraints across all branches of the search tree, prompt- and control-level enhancements, and refined tree-search algorithms successfully recover wasted compute. Our results show that large gains in autoresearch agent performance are achievable through agentic design alone, holding the underlying language model fixed.

arXiv

A lower bound for stepsize-based acceleration of gradient descent

Jianhao Ma, Yuxin Chen

Recent work has shown that, for smooth convex optimization, plain gradient descent can be accelerated from its textbook convergence rate of $O(T^{-1})$ (where $T$ denotes the number of iterations) to $O\big(T^{-\log_2(1+\sqrt{2})}\big)$ using carefully designed stepsize schedules alone, without resorting to momentum or other algorithmic modifications. Despite this progress, however, little was known about lower bounds for such methods beyond the classical $Ω(T^{-2})$ benchmark for general first-order methods. In this work, we present a new lower bound of $Ω(T^{-1.9319})$ for the last-iterate convergence rate of gradient descent with predetermined nonnegative stepsize schedules. This result provides rigorous evidence that stepsize schedules alone cannot accelerate plain GD to the optimal $O(T^{-2})$ convergence rate. The proof was developed by GPT-5.6 Sol Pro under the authors' guidance.

arXiv

Post-Calibration Reliability Reranking of Relevance Decisions via Label-wise Monotone Projection

Inwoo Tae, Yongjae Lee

Web search, product search, and question-answering retrieval systems often assign a relevance label and confidence score to each query-candidate pair. The relevance label describes how well a page, product, or passage matches the query, while the confidence often guides downstream use or fallback decisions. Post-hoc calibration is therefore needed because misaligned confidence can make systems over-trust wrong predictions or unnecessarily defer correct ones. However, calibration mainly aligns confidence with average correctness, and does not remove predicted-label-dependent reliability differences that remain within the same calibrated confidence level. We address this gap with Label-wise Monotone Reliability Projection (MRP), which learns label-wise monotone functions that map calibrated confidence to correctness reliability while preserving the original predicted labels and class probabilities. The resulting reliability score reranks fixed predictions according to residual risk. Across six information access relevance datasets and multiple post-hoc calibrators, MRP improves reliability reranking and average fallback utility while preserving full-coverage accuracy and ECE. Structural ablations show that the main gains come from label-wise residual reliability rather than from global confidence remapping. We further analyze when MRP reliability scores can be embedded back into top-label probability geometry, showing that this projection is useful as a compatibility analysis but is distinct from the main reliability-reranking objective. The implementation will be made publicly available.

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