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Search papers from 30+ top conferences, including NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML, CVPR, ACL and AAAI. Filter by keyword, then open any paper for its abstract, authors and links.

arXiv

Exponential quantum advantage for learning signals with a single qubit

Ishaan Kannan, Sridhar Prabhu, Saeed A. Khan, Mandar M. Sohoni, Xingrui Song, Saswata Roy, Alen Senanian, Valla Fatemi, Peter L. McMahon, Jordan Cotler

Quantum technology has the potential to transform scientific discovery, but quantum advantages often require processing capabilities well beyond the reach of experimental platforms. We show that coupling a single controllable qubit to an otherwise conventional sensor can exponentially reduce the number of measurements required to learn classical signals. These rigorous quantum advantages apply to fundamental sensing tasks, including learning Fourier coefficients, extracting temporal correlations from time-varying signals, and estimating transformations of physical observables. Using a superconducting cavity--qubit architecture, we experimentally demonstrate $10^7$-fold reductions in the number of measurements required for Fourier-amplitude and time-varying signal learning. Our $\textit{quantum feature sensing}$ algorithms further enable orders-of-magnitude improvements in simulations of weak-signal dark matter detection and wireless communication applications. These quantum advantages are derived from Quantum Phase-Space Inference (Q$Ψ$), a unifying theory of quantum-enhanced experiments that simultaneously converts a set of experimental objectives and constraints into tight lower bounds and optimal quantum-enhanced learning algorithms while producing a certificate of quantum advantage. Q$Ψ$ extends beyond the regimes captured by quantum Fisher information and provides a framework for systematically identifying rigorous quantum advantages in practical experimental tasks. Together, our results establish that near-term quantum technology can exponentially enhance our ability to learn from classical signals.

arXiv

The data geometry of masking diffusion: Certified-optimal schedules via unmasking growth complexity

Martin J Wainwright

We study masking diffusion for discrete sampling and introduce a path-resolved measure of data geometry called the \emph{unmasking growth complexity} ({\textsf{UGC}\xspace}). Its local increments directly control Kullback--Leibler (KL) discretization error, yielding a unified analysis of Bernoulli-subset and fixed-cardinality unmasking schemes. In log-reveal-odds coordinates, this structure yields optimized single-block and multi-block schedules, and quantifies the gains from adapting computational effort to data geometry. Crucially, we show how {\textsf{UGC}\xspace} increments can be estimated from samples via KL increments along coupled reveal trajectories. This leads to \emph{certified-optimal} samplers that achieve a prescribed KL error with high probability and iteration complexity within a constant factor of the corresponding oracle procedure. Collapsing the \ugc path yields the aggregate {\textsf{UGC}\xspace} mass, which connects to classical multivariate dependence measures and complexity measures from previous analyses of discrete diffusion. In the fine-partition limit, the squared integral of the square-root {\textsf{UGC}\xspace} density determines the sharp leading-order optimal Euler discretization error. Examples exhibit substantial dimension-dependent gains over coarse schedules, including $\widetildeΩ(\sqrt{d})$ improvements achievable with a constant number of adaptively placed blocks.

arXiv

Bagging Robustly Learns VC Classes with Linear Sample Complexity

Omar Montasser

We revisit the problem of learning predictors robust to adversarial examples at test-time. We prove that VC classes are adversarially robustly learnable with sample complexity linear in the VC dimension $d$, providing an exponential improvement over the previous upper bound of Montasser, Hanneke, and Srebro (2019). Remarkably, this result is achieved with a simple improper algorithm that combines the classic heuristic bagging (bootstrap aggregation) of Breiman (1996) with robust empirical risk minimization (RERM). Our algorithm computes RERMs on $O(d^\star)$ independent bootstrap samples and outputs their majority vote, where $d^\star$ denotes the dual VC dimension. We complement this result with a lower bound showing that this is unavoidable: in general, any learner in this oracle model requires $Ω(d^\star)$ calls to an RERM oracle, even when given arbitrarily many training examples.

arXiv

On the Structural Limits of Machine Learning Decision Systems: An Information-Theoretic, Interaction-Based, and Stochastic-Dynamical Perspective

Nestor R. Barraza, Gabriel Pena

Machine learning procedures are commonly evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. However, their achievable performance is fundamentally constrained by structural properties of the underlying data-generating process, which are formalized in terms of informational bounds. In this work we examine intrinsic limits of data-driven decision systems from an information-theoretic and interaction-based perspective. We analyze minimal achievable error in classification through Fano-type bounds and precision limits in parametric estimation via the Cramér-Rao inequality, emphasizing that such limits depend on the underlying model rather than on algorithmic sophistication alone. We further discuss how implicit assumptions, such as independence, ergodicity, and distributional stability, affect the validity of inferential procedures. Building on interaction-based modeling principles, we review typical frameworks such as Markov Random Fields and potential based representations for encoding dependence mechanisms. We also describe decision systems, including LLM-integrated agent architectures, as feedback-driven stochastic processes where state-dependent dynamics may induce emergent macroscopic behavior. This perspective highlights the importance of having adequate models for the data as a prerequi- site for expanding predictive capability, and situates algorithmic learning within the informational limits imposed by the models.

arXiv

Equivariant learning of a transferable three-dimensional classical density functional

Bingqing Cheng

Liquids exhibit collective behavior that depends sensitively on thermodynamic conditions, interfaces and confinement, yet predicting each new state commonly requires a separate atomistic simulation. Classical density functional theory offers a reusable variational description, but its central excess free-energy functional is generally unknown, and learned approximations have largely remained restricted to planar or lower-dimensional settings. Here we show that this functional can be learned directly from fully three-dimensional equilibrium density fields while preserving spatial symmetry and variational consistency, without free-energy or chemical-potential labels. A single learned functional transfers across temperatures, system sizes and statistical ensembles, and recovers structure factors, the equation of state, liquid--vapor coexistence and interfacial broadening, none of which are used as training targets. Applied to complex three-dimensional geometries, it predicts the non-monotonic force associated with formation and rupture of a solvent-depleted bridge between colloids and adsorption in an interconnected gyroid pore. These results demonstrate that equilibrium density data can be converted into a transferable thermodynamic generator connecting microscopic liquid structure to response, phase behavior and collective phenomena.

arXiv

Sparse Orthogonal Regression Technique: A Spectral Framework for Equation Discovery, Approximation, and Integration

Sabin Roman, Ljupco Todorovski, Saso Dzeroski

We develop the Sparse Orthogonal Regression Technique (SORT), a sparse spectral framework for learning orthonormal-basis expansions from noisy and irregularly sampled data. SORT estimates expansion coefficients directly from observations using L1-regularized regression, avoiding explicit quadrature or analytic inner-product evaluation. The central application is data-driven discovery of ordinary differential equations: vector fields are represented in chosen orthogonal bases and learned as sparse coefficient expansions. This provides a complementary route to symbolic regression, grammar-based discovery, and SINDy-style sparse identification by first recovering a compact spectral representation, which can later guide searches for simpler analytic forms. Across the dynamical-system experiments, SORT matches or improves upon library-based sparse-regression baselines when the basis is well adapted to the problem, and shows more stable degradation under sparse sampling, noisy derivative estimates, and representation mismatch. Specific examples illustrate why this representation is useful: if a finite library misses the problem-specific nonlinearity, the resulting model can fail. SORT is not immune to mismatch, but it shifts the problem away from brittle selection among generic terms to basis design adapted to the problem domain. The experiments also show that dominant low-order coefficients persist as model order increases, supporting order-consistent model growth. Beyond equation discovery, the same learned expansion supports nonlinear approximation and estimation of complex, high-dimensional integrals by coefficient readout. Overall, SORT provides a reusable intermediate representation for system identification, approximation, and integration, while making basis design an explicit part of the scientific modeling problem.

arXiv

Active-Trace Complexity Bounds for Moreau--Yosida Unadjusted Langevin Sampling

Yuchen Xin, Zhihua Zhang

We study the Moreau--Yosida unadjusted Langevin algorithm (MYULA) for the nonsmooth composite target \[ π(dx)\propto \exp\{-f(x)-g(x)\}\,dx, \qquad x\in\mathbb R^d, \] where \(f\) is \(m\)-strongly convex with \(L_f\)-Lipschitz gradient and \(g\) is convex and \(G\)-Lipschitz. Let \(g_λ\) be the Moreau envelope of \(g\), \(π_λ\) the corresponding smoothed target, and \(a_λ=\operatorname{tr}H_λ\), where \(H_λ\) is the a.e./weak Hessian of \(g_λ\). We show that the leading MYULA discretization error is controlled by the reference active trace \(B_{\mathrm{ref}}\), the average of \(a_λ\) along the heat substep of one MYULA update started from \(π_λ\), rather than by the global curvature bound \(d/λ\). If \(M_λ\) is an a.e. upper bound for \(a_λ\), then, up to logarithmic factors, \[ N \lesssim \frac{1}{m} \left[ L_f + \frac{ τ_f+G^2+B_{\mathrm{ref}} }{ \varepsilon_{\mathrm{alg}}^2 } + \frac{M_λ}{\varepsilon_{\mathrm{alg}}} \right], \qquad τ_f:= \sup_x\operatorname{tr}\nabla^2 f(x), \] iterations suffice to ensure \(\sqrt m\,W_2(μ_N,π_λ)\leq\varepsilon_{\mathrm{alg}}\), where \(μ_N\) is the law of the \(N\)-th iterate and \(W_2\) is the quadratic Wasserstein distance. We also prove the Moreau-bias bound \[ \sqrt m\,W_2(π_λ,π) \leq \frac{G^2λ}{4}. \] Thus, choosing \(λ\asymp\varepsilon/G^2\) gives an end-to-end guarantee for \(π\). The universal estimate \(B_{\mathrm{ref}}\leq d/λ\) yields \(\widetilde O(\varepsilon^{-3})\) accuracy dependence. For the structured piecewise-linear, lasso-type, group, and total-variation penalties considered here, curvature--tube estimates make \(B_{\mathrm{ref}}\) independent of \(λ\), yielding \(\widetilde O(\varepsilon^{-2})\) for the same classical MYULA kernel.

arXiv

Concept Drift Detection and Adaptive Retraining of Malware Classification Models

Christofer Washington Berruz Chungata, Martin Jurecek, Katerina Potika, William B. Andreopoulos, Mark Stamp

Concept drift refers to changes over time in the statistical properties of data, as compared to the data that was used to train a learning model. Machine learning models for malware detection or classification are particularly susceptible to performance degradation caused by concept drift, as attackers constantly modify existing malware. In this chapter, we analyze two machine learning-based approaches to automated concept drift detection-a novel approach based on One-Class Support Vector Machines (OCSVM) and a previously-studied technique based on Minibatch K-Means (MK-Means). For comparison we also consider Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), a statistical technique for detecting changes in multidimensional data. We conduct an extensive series of experiments comparing the effectiveness of four learning models, namely, Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting. For each of these models, we consider three distinct scenarios: A static scenario where no model retraining occurs, a periodic scenario where models are constantly retrained irrespective of concept drift, and a drift-aware scenario where models are only retrained when concept drift is detected. Under the drift-aware scenario, we analyze the tradeoff between accuracy and training efficiency using Pareto Front analysis. We find that all three concept drift detection techniques achieve classification accuracy comparable to periodic retraining, while offering substantially greater efficiency in terms of the number of models that must be retrained. In addition, drift-aware retraining based on our OCSVM technique generally outperforms the MK-Means and MMD approaches. Overall, these results provide strong evidence that we can accurately detect concept drift in malware classification models.

arXiv

Doubly Robust Estimation of Causal Effect on CVR with Targeted Regularization

Jiayi Dan, Bo Li, Lu Deng, Yong Wang

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) is a key metric in various scenarios including e-commerce and advertising, reflecting the efficiency and user experience in the second stage of the conversion process. Estimating the causal effect on CVR is therefore of great practical importance. However, directly applying existing causal inference methods to clicked samples introduces sample selection bias and increased variance due to the exclusion of non-click data. Recent studies on CVR prediction introduce "ideal loss", which optimizes model parameters using an unbiased estimate of the loss over the full sample. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that unbiasedness of the loss implies unbiasedness of the final estimator. We revisit this challenge from the perspective of semiparametric theory. Specifically, we develop a new doubly robust causal effect estimator for chain-structured outcomes such as CVR, and derive its theoretical properties in detail. It achieves a faster convergence rate compared to nuisance parameters estimation and is therefore more robust when using flexible nonparametric estimators, including neural networks. Based on these theoretical findings, we further design a framework based on targeted regularization to improve numerical stability and practical applicability. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method. In addition, we find that naively combining loss debiasing with standard causal estimators underperforms our method, highlighting the necessity of developing the new estimator tailored to this CVR-style objective with solid theoretical guarantees.

arXiv

Symmetry-Breaking De Novo Crystal Generation via Markovian Jump Diffusion

Van Khoa Nguyen, Alexandros Kalousis

Generating crystals has recently attracted significant interest due to their broad applications in materials science. However, existing generative models struggle to produce complete crystallographic specifications, limiting their ability to capture global symmetry and structural dependencies. In particular, current state-of-the-art approaches generate crystals only up to site symmetries and rely on sampling space groups from empirical distributions during generation. Inspired by \emph{spontaneous symmetry breaking} in physics, where crystals break symmetries under external conditions, we propose a novel diffusion-based framework that generates full structure specifications by reversing from the lowest-symmetry priors. Our method leverages a Markovian jump-diffusion process to model these symmetry-breaking dynamics, enabling it to traverse different space groups in a physically motivated manner. Our model, dubbed \emph{Symmetry-breaking Crystal Diffusion} (SbCD), introduces a principled approach to explicitly incorporate inter-space-group transitions into the generative process. In de novo generation experiments on MP20 and MPTS-52, SbCD outperforms its symmetry-preserving counterpart by a substantial margin, offering a promising perspective for generative modeling of crystalline materials.

arXiv

LLM-Assisted Dynamic Threat Analysis for Attacker-Reachable Software Weaknesses in Autonomous Vehicles

Md Wasiul Haque, Sagar Dasgupta, Mizanur Rahman, Md Rayhanur Rahman

Autonomous vehicles depend on large safety-critical software stacks, where weaknesses reachable from adversarial inputs may affect steering, braking, or other control decisions. Static analysis can identify candidate sites, but dynamically confirming exploitability requires executable test artifacts that are difficult to construct manually. We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can automate this process for Autoware, an open-source autonomous-driving stack. We perform compiler-precise static analysis across 185 packages, identifying 1,375 decision rules, 2,274 validation checks, and 482 input-to-safety-output flows, from which we derive a weakness taxonomy and sample 740 reachable sites. Two local open-weight LLMs, a no-static-context ablation, and a naive-template baseline generate 3,700 artifact sets, which are compiled against the real build under sanitizers, repaired through compiler-in-the-loop feedback, and fuzzed when executable. The main result is a build-integration failure taxonomy showing that 80% of first-shot compilation failures arise from dependency wiring rather than program logic. The reasoning model compiled 64% of harnesses on the first attempt, compared with 6% for the code-specialized model. Repair achieved full object-compileability for the reasoning model only through extensive stubbing; fewer than half of its harnesses reached the fuzzer, and all 37 observed crashes originated in stubbed code rather than Autoware. No candidate weakness was dynamically confirmed within budget. These results show that build integration, not candidate generation or fuzzing, is the primary barrier to reliable LLM-assisted dynamic analysis of full autonomous-vehicle software stacks.

arXiv

Wasserstein Filtering: A Sample Selection Method for Robust Distribution Learning

Yikai Xu, Zhao Chen, Jian Huang

Given a dataset where a portion of the samples are contaminated, our goal is to recover the underlying clean population distribution. To this end, we propose Wasserstein Filtering (WF), a novel sample selection framework that discards a fraction of suspicious samples and estimates the target distribution using the empirical measure of the remaining data. The core insight is to select a subset of samples whose empirical distribution maximizes its Wasserstein distance to the fully contaminated empirical distribution, thereby preferentially isolating and removing geometrically influential outliers. To render this optimization computationally tractable, we introduce three algorithms: a marginal screening scheme, SinkMarg, and two joint optimization algorithms, SinkWF and SlicedWF, leveraging entropic optimal transport and sliced Wasserstein approximations, respectively. On the theoretical front, we introduce the Far Exclusion and Local Projection (FELP) contamination model, which characterizes corruptions consisting of well-separated outliers and locally indistinguishable perturbations. Under this model, we prove that the WF estimator achieves minimax optimality over distribution families with bounded covariance. Extensive numerical experiments on synthetic datasets, benchmark anomaly detection suites, and robust generative learning with diffusion models demonstrate that WF serves as a highly practical, model-agnostic preprocessing tool. It delivers competitive outlier detection performance and provides substantial downstream benefits for generative modeling under heavy contamination.

arXiv

When Local Variance Optimality Is Not Enough: RoPE-Aligned Q/K Rotations for Dynamic 4-Bit Quantisation

Shuhan Wang, Yilin Luo, Nan Xu, Chi Wang Cheung

Rotation-based post-training quantisation commonly applies an orthogonal transform across an entire attention head to reduce outlier-induced error. RoPE instead partitions each head into two-dimensional frequency pairs, raising the question of whether a transform respecting this decomposition can improve on full-head mixing. Prior work has established the per-pair rotations that commute with RoPE. We state the converse result that, for distinct frequencies, no other single-head orthogonal map commutes with RoPE. For the head-shared parameterisation used in our experiments, we then derive the rotation angle that minimises the larger channel variance under a pooled-covariance, position-averaged surrogate and verify that the implementation attains its analytic minimum. The evaluated head-shared pairwise configuration does not improve accuracy in the tested dynamic W4A4KV4 setting. Across four checkpoints, replacing the full-head Hadamard with this configuration increases perplexity at both short and long context lengths. Composing the pairwise rotation with the Hadamard satisfies the selected $\pm0.05$-PPL interval criterion under the default estimator. Estimating the shared angle from K alone improves pairwise-only on every checkpoint but does not close its gap to full-head mixing. The analytic objective controls a position-averaged second moment of a pooled calibration covariance, whereas the dynamic quantiser sets its step from a tokenwise group range. The pairwise transform also has only two-channel mixing support. Along a controlled interpolation from two-channel to full-head mixing, K range, relative quantisation error, and perplexity degradation decrease as support increases. These results show that optimality for a structured surrogate need not reduce quantisation error when the surrogate and mixing support are misaligned with the quantiser's scale-setting statistic.

arXiv

Where You Measure Decides What You Measure: Position Selection in Ablation-Based SAE Evaluation

Valentin NOËL

Sparse autoencoders are meant to name the things a language model computes, and the usual way to check that a latent matters is to switch it off and see what changes. But a latent fires at many tokens, and the effect has to be measured at one of them. The convention is to measure where the latent fires hardest. That choice is almost never reported, and it is not made by the experimenter: it is made by the dictionary under evaluation. Change the dictionary and the measurement moves to a different token. We show this is not a detail. Take two sparse autoencoders released by Google for the same model and match their latents by decoder similarity: even among the pairs the two dictionaries encode almost identically, they pick different tokens for a large share of them. Two dictionaries compared under the usual protocol are therefore very often compared at different places. To separate the convention from the dictionaries we train six autoencoders from one initialisation, differing only in fitting choices, so that a latent means the same thing in each. Most of the variance such a comparison reads as "these dictionaries disagree about this latent" turns out to be the position instead: it falls from 7.6% and 11.9% of variance to near zero once every dictionary is measured at the same token. More evaluation data does not rescue it. Across a sixteenfold range of corpus sizes the dictionaries agree less about where to measure, not more, so the problem grows with scale. The correction is one line of evaluation code. We give the protocol an ablation-based causal number must report to be comparable across papers, and an audit of five published papers against it. In short: a causal number reported without its position describes the token it was taken at as much as the latent it was taken from.

arXiv

Neural Quadratic Forms: A Unified Minimal Model for Sudden Learning and Scaling Laws

Liu Ziyin, Yizhou Xu, Tomaso Poggio, Isaac Chuang

Neural networks trained by gradient descent on a smooth cost function can nevertheless learn in steps: the cost holds on long plateaus and then drops abruptly. Meanwhile, training losses instead follow smooth power laws. Variants of both behaviors occur in architectures with very different microscopic structures, which is the signature of a few relevant collective variables. We show that a symmetry fixes what those variables are: a network layer is a sum over interchangeable units, so relabeling the units leaves it unchanged; given smoothness and the condition that a unit's gradient vanish at the origin, symmetry then enforces a universal leading form for the expansion about the near-zero weights present at the start of training, the quadratic $\Tr[WW^{\top}A(x)]$, in which every architectural detail is confined to a single ``structure matrix" $A(x)$ that we compute for each architecture. Perceptrons, attention layers, mixtures of experts, and convolutions become one model at different $A$. Its training dynamics then close on the ``order parameter" $M=WW^{\top}$ and, whenever the data matrices share an eigenbasis, reduce to a Lotka--Volterra equation whose modes switch on one after another. The smaller the initial weights, the further apart the switch-on times, and the plateaus appear as a singular limit of a smooth flow; when many modes are unresolved the same events merge into a power law in training time whose exponent the theory predicts. We confirm both numerically across training methods and architectures.

arXiv

Training AI Scientists to Replicate Research

Damon Falck, Samer Sabri, Anja Surina, Thom Foster, Anya Sims, Sam Devlin, Dylan Rogers, Tantum Collins, Kaloyan Aleksiev, Louis Kirsch, Edward Hughes

The replicability of papers is a cornerstone of scientific knowledge, ensuring the reliability of existing results and providing a base for further experiments. The act of replication typically illuminates details that were previously underspecified, and thus requires similar hypothesis-driven exploration to open-ended research. In this work, we develop Replica, a scalable task space for paper replication. To provide reward signal, we introduce an auto-generated rubric-based judge that has low noise and agrees with human assessment of replication quality. We post-train Faraday, a 27B-parameter "AI Scientist" agent that leverages coding agents as tools, surpassing the performance of Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 on held-out replication tasks. Qualitative analysis of individual rollouts reveals that Faraday adopts a more scientifically-principled approach. We believe that our results provide a stepping stone towards AI agents capable of long-horizon scientific innovation without requiring complex harnesses.

arXiv

A Probe Direction Is a Property of Its Prompt

Valentin NOËL

A model that behaves differently when it senses it is being tested would undermine the evaluations we rely on, so recent work has sought to read that sense directly from a model's activations. The standard instrument contrasts activations on prompts that announce an evaluation against prompts that do not, and reports how well the resulting direction separates held-out cases. That number is then compared across models and correlated with scale. We observe that the instrument has a free parameter its readings do not disclose: "a prompt that announces an evaluation" is not a prompt but a choice among many, and nothing in the method fixes which. Holding the task text fixed and varying only that choice, we find that the reported score, and even the direction in which it trends with model size, follows the prompt rather than the model; two published studies that disagree about the sign of that trend are both reproducible from a single design, by choice of prompt alone. Treating the prompt as a facet of a measurement design rather than an implementation detail, we find the model under study accounts for a small share of the variance in the number reported about it, and most of the rest lies in how each model responds to each prompt: collecting more evaluation items cannot repair the measurement, while varying prompts can. A further check finds that the split these probes are scored on is largely separable from surface form alone, so a direction carrying no information about evaluation at all still reproduces a substantial fraction of each published score. We conclude that a single-prompt design cannot support comparison between models, and we give the number of prompts a defensible comparison requires.

arXiv

Foundation models for movement data: Are they ready for prime-time?

Alexander Bräuer, Benjamin Cauchi, Nils Strodthoff

Foundation models (FMs) trained on large-scale accelerometer data have been proposed as general-purpose feature extractors for health monitoring, but systematic evidence of their advantages is lacking. We present the first comprehensive evaluation of four open-source accelerometer FMs against supervised baselines covering 19 tasks across the domains of activity recognition including activities of daily living, clinical monitoring, and physiological inference. We find task-dependent performance results: supervised models remain competitive with FMs on human action recognition (HAR), with no consistent advantage for either, while selected FMs lead on fall and stress detection and are the most robust to sensor-placement variation. As frozen feature extractors, FMs are strongest for demographic inference, whereas sleep staging performance remains near chance level for all models. The internal FM representations show strong similarity across layers, highlighting potential for future FM improvements. Linear and frozen probing reveals that UniMTS provides the strongest representations and is the only FM that surpasses the supervised baselines without finetuning. Concept discovery analysis shows all models capture high-intensity activities clearly but struggle with sedentary, complex or ambiguous activities. We provide scenario-based deployment recommendations. Furthermore, we identify FM-derived activity profile inference-moving beyond fixed category classification-as a promising research direction.

arXiv

Keep, Customize, or Exit: Default Design and Token Pricing in LLM Reasoning Services

Ahmet Bugra Gundogan, Yigit Turkmen, Melih Bastopcu

We study a large language model (LLM) service in which a provider chooses a per-token price and a default reasoning-token allocation, while a user may accept the default, customize the allocation, or exit. Larger allocations can improve accuracy but increase token cost and latency. We model this interaction as a Stackelberg game and derive the user's unique optimal customized allocation in closed form. For any price, the acceptable defaults form either an empty set or a compact interval. We characterize the provider's optimal default through a three-regime rule, reduce equilibrium computation to a one-dimensional price optimization, and prove the existence of the equilibrium. We further show that defaults affect the implemented reasoning allocation only when users value the convenience of avoiding customization; otherwise, every service-providing outcome implements the user's optimal customized allocation. Experiments with two compact open-weight reasoning models on five mathematics and science benchmarks support the accuracy-token model and show how model and task characteristics determine equilibrium prices, defaults, and reasoning allocations.

arXiv

The Time Value of Evolution

Matthew Siper, Ahmed Khalifa, Julian Togelius

In evolutionary search, a weak child can be a valuable ancestor that makes high-fitness regions reachable. Immediate-return control is blind to this delayed utility, penalizing mutations through their immediate offspring even when they open productive future lineages. We formalize this hidden dynamic as the time value of evolution within a finite-horizon Markov decision process. To exploit it, we introduce Lineage-Value Policy Gradients (LVPG), a long-horizon actor-critic framework for automated trading policy discovery. Our architecture decouples search control into specialized policy heads over a shared generative backbone: a bootstrapped critic head estimates the value of finite-horizon lineage potential from multi-step mutation trees, while an actor head dynamically modulates mutation intensity over the remaining search budget. We isolate the impact of long-horizon credit assignment against immediate-return optimization across 90 paired runs under matched operators, lineage supervision, folds, seeds, and budgets. Path-based credit assignment substantially accelerates finite-budget search, increasing validation best-so-far AUC by 0.394 Sharpe units. LVPG also produces fewer temporary regressions than immediate-return optimization and recovers from them more often. Finite-horizon lineage value yields more selective non-monotonic search and stronger policies within identical resource constraints.

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