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arXiv

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News: When Is News Priced In?

Alireza Kargarzadeh, Nariman Khaledian, Navid Parvini, Sid Ghatak, Arman Khaledian

Two old market sayings hold that news is already priced in by the time it is published, and that the rumor is bought while the news is sold. Both place the price move associated with a piece of news before and at publication rather than after it. Whether the claims hold, for which kinds of news, and by how much are basic questions about how fast markets absorb public information. We test them on 4.57 million financial news articles covering roughly 3,000 US stocks (2023-2026). A large language model teacher, distilled into a compact classifier through active learning, assigns each article one of 17 event tags and five attributes; articles are clustered into stories to separate first reports from follow-up coverage; and beta-adjusted abnormal returns are measured around the resulting 1.68 million stock-day events, with 364,405 neutral-sentiment events as a placebo group. Three results follow. First, the price move associated with news concentrates before and at publication: pooled across all signed events, the cumulative move in the news direction by the close of publication day is 2.8 times its value 20 days later, and for rumor-flagged events the rumor day captures the entire move while the subsequent confirmation contributes nothing. Second, measured against the placebo of comparable stocks, markets underreact to numbers and overreact to stories: quantified fundamental news (earnings, dividends, guidance, analyst actions) keeps drifting in the direction of the news for weeks, while soft story-driven news (launches, macro commentary, leadership) gives back its move. Third, news carries width as well as direction: publicity raises volatility before the publication day, and volatility declines once the news is out, because publication resolves uncertainty. The study also produces a table of measured drift for each event tag, usable as a prior in news-conditioned forecasting models.

arXiv

Identifiability and Order-Dimension Limits of In-Context Learning on Partial Orders

Faizanuddin Ansari, Debanjan Dutta, Swagatam Das

In-context learning is commonly formalized as inference from examples of a function. Partial orders instead combine transitivity, antisymmetry, and incomparability, so a finite prompt may not determine a queried comparison. We develop a theory of in-context learning on partial orders that separates logical identifiability, prompt teaching cost, structural complexity, and the exact capacity of a formal coordinate-decoder class. A version-space semantics makes background knowledge and open- versus closed-world assumptions explicit. For finite open-world prompts with positive and negative comparisons, we prove an exact completion trichotomy: after taking the reflexive transitive closure of the positive demonstrations, a query is forced true, forced false because every true completion creates a cycle or violates a negative demonstration, or remains genuinely ambiguous. For a known $n$-element universe, we characterize the open-world teaching number as the number of covers plus a blocker-set hitting number, prove that its maximum over all $n$-element posets is $n(n-1)$ and is uniquely attained by the antichain, and identify the blocker term as the exact cost of open-world rather than complete-Hasse semantics. We formalize prompt-dependent $s$-coordinate decoders and use the classical coordinate-order equivalence to obtain an exact representation boundary: dimension at most $s$ is necessary and sufficient, while width at most $s$ is a convenient sufficient condition.

arXiv

Nanbeige4.2-3B on Apple Silicon: Fixing Deployment Bugs and Decreasing Looped Transformer Memory Overhead

John T Halloran

Nanbeige4.2-3B is a 3B-parameter agentic model built around a Looped Transformer (LT) that reuses one stack of layers for a second forward pass, adding effective depth without additional parameters. Evaluated on Apple Silicon (MPS), we identify five independent bugs which prevent the released checkpoint from running via Hugging Face transformers out of the box (including a silently-zeroed RoPE buffer and calls to removed transformers cache APIs). Furthermore, we show that fixing these bugs is still not sufficient for agentic tasks, due to the LT's layer-reuse strategy (which effectively doubles peak attention memory) used to achieve parameter efficiency. We thus introduce a chunked-prefill strategy which alleviates the incurred memory-capacity penalty, extending allowable context width by $2.7 \times$ on 32~GiB shared memory. However, even with the reduced memory overhead, we show that patches are required to render Nanbeige4.2-3B usable; resolving both system prompt and MPS-native memory bugs finally allows reliable evaluation on standard MCP and tool-calling benchmarks. On a subset of MCPMark, the debugged model completes up to 30\% of real agentic tasks (up from the original's 0\%), while, on BFCL, it is near-perfect at single tool calls (yet fails the majority of multi-tool tests). We release the patched checkpoint, system prompt optimizer, and evaluation harnesses at https://github.com/johnhalloran321/Nanbeige4.2-3B-mps-fix.

arXiv

Polar Code Based Federated Learning: Convergence Analysis and Resource Allocation

Han Xiao, Wei Kang, Nan Liu

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training across distributed devices without sharing raw data; however, it faces significant communication bottlenecks and channel impairments in practice. Conventional network layer treatments either idealize the channel as error free or apply equal error protection (EEP) to transmitted model updates, failing to account for the inherently unequal importance of quantization bits within a single local model. To address this limitation, we propose a cross layer polar code based FL scheme that leverages the unequal error protection (UEP) property of polar codes under finite block lengths. Specifically, the proposed design selectively protects more significant quantization bits, thereby mitigating the detrimental effects of channel noise. We further provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the proposed scheme, deriving an upper bound on the convergence gap, which we then jointly optimize over the number of quantization bits and the polar code block length across all training iterations. Experimental results demonstrate that both constant and variable block length configurations of our polar code based scheme consistently achieve substantial performance gains over uncoded and LDPC-based EEP benchmarks, with the advantage becoming increasingly pronounced as the channel quality deteriorating. These findings confirm the efficacy of our cross-layer design in enhancing FL robustness and efficiency under realistic channel conditions.

arXiv

Deep Vision in Smart Manufacturing: MODERN Framework for Intelligent Quality Monitoring and Diagnosis

Yicheng Kang, Yuling Jiao, Xin Geng, Mahesh Nagarajan

Smart manufacturing processes are often installed with a large number of sensors, imaging devices and computers, which not only enable instant communication across various modules of a production system but also aid in intelligent manufacturing management. In this paper, we introduce MODERN, a deep learning framework for quality monitoring and fault isolation, which integrates these enhanced capabilities into the practice of industrial quality control. Using the architecture of an inception residual neural network, we develop a control chart that monitors the likelihood of a product containing defects. We also propose a faulty region estimator that identifies the defective area using transfer learning. To extend our framework to cases where there are not sufficient training data, we suggest a transfer monitoring technique that requires only a small sample size and a hypothesis testing approach for quantitatively assessing the applicability of our method. Theoretically, we establish the minimax optimal convergence rate for both our defect likelihood estimation and fault diagnosis. Our results lead to a seemingly counter-intuitive managerial implication - it may not always be in a manufacturer's best interests to keep upgrading its monitoring equipment regardless of the cost. Empirically, we demonstrate the superior performance of our method in comparison with a state-of-the-art approach using both simulated experiments and real data.

arXiv

Probabilistic indirect models for undrained shear strength: addressing significant data missing and variability with advanced imputation and machine learning techniques

Haibin Xiong, Shaoheng Dai, Peng Lan, Xuzhen He, Chenxi Tong, Sheng Zhang, Daichao Sheng

Accurate prediction of undrained shear strength (su) is crucial for geotechnical design, but is often hampered by substantial uncertainty in traditional empirical methods. This study uses the CLAY/10/7490 global database to develop probabilistic indirect models to predict su based on Atterberg limits and piezocone cone penetration (CPTU) measurements. Firstly, the dataset has a high missing data rate and variability. We test three imputation methods - multivariate normal (MN), multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE), and miss forest (MF) - to fill the missing values. To validate their effectiveness, a Probabilistic Extreme Gradient Boosting (PXGB) model is developed, and the imputation methods are evaluated by comparing the PXGB's performance when trained on the imputed datasets against that on the original incomplete data. Secondly, the indirect model is built by integrating a multi-head attention (MHA) mechanism into an artificial neural network (ANN) to enhance information extraction from limited data, which leads to the MHA-based probabilistic neural networks (MHA-PNN) model. The models' performance, alongside a conventional MN-based prediction model, was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), conditional interval width (wCI), and coverage rate (CR). Results demonstrate that the proposed MN-enhanced MHA-PNN model substantially outperforms other models in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification. These findings highlight the potential of this integrated strategy for building robust probabilistic indirect models in geotechnical applications, particularly when confronted with sparse and incomplete datasets.

arXiv

Post-training Quantization for Hybrid Iterative Generative Models

Jing Gao, Junyi Wu, Wei Wang, Yan Yan, Yao Zhao

Iterative Generative Models (IGMs) span autoregressive and diffusion paradigms, and hybrid variants that couple them can achieve remarkable image-generation fidelity. However, their iterative inference incurs substantial computational overhead, making Post-training Quantization (PTQ) appealing for acceleration, while directly applying vanilla PTQ to hybrid IGMs can trigger model collapse. By analyzing these failures, we identify two critical challenges: Excessive Outliers (EOs) in the activations create an irreconcilable trade-off between preserving normal precision and covering EOs, resulting in severe degradation in generation quality; Amplified Anomalies (AAs) arising unpredictably from minor quantization errors, create a mismatch between calibration and inference, thus iteratively triggering model collapse. To address these challenges, we introduce HyGenQ, a PTQ framework for hybrid IGMs. HyGenQ comprises Hierarchical Cluster Decoupling (HCD) and Scaling Recalibration (SR). HCD identifies and decouples outlier channels via a multi-stage clustering process, effectively isolating EOs while maintaining normal value precision, thereby alleviating performance degradation. SR scales AAs beyond Gaussian Bound, thereby avoiding model collapse caused by aggressive truncation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HyGenQ successfully quantizes representative hybrid IGMs to 8-bit precision (W8A8), significantly outperforming existing baselines and validating its robustness across different model families.

arXiv

High-dimensional nonparametric changepoint detection via low-rank degree-two density projection

Guoqing zhang, Zhaixin Chen

Detecting distributional changes in high dimension is difficult when neither the pre-change nor post-change density is parametrically specified. We introduce a representation-based approach that retains all degree-at-most-two density information while replacing density estimation by matrix mean estimation. For observations in $[-1,1]^d$, a symmetric feature matrix $H_2(X)\in\R^{(d+1)\times(d+1)}$ is constructed so that $M(f)=\E_f H_2(X)$ is an isometric encoding of the degree-two orthogonal projection of the density. We scan matrix CUSUMs after rank-$r$ truncation, exploiting the low rank of the projected jump rather than sparsity of individual coordinates. The resulting \LRD{} estimator has a tent-shaped population objective and a nonasymptotic operator-norm analysis whose leading stochastic term scales as $\sqrt{rd\log(nd)}$. For multiple changes, we give a seeded narrowest-over-threshold procedure and prove exact recovery by an induction that preserves an isolating interval for every undetected change. A cross-fitted scalar refinement learns the changing low-rank direction on one fold and localizes on the other, attaining $\widetilde O_{\Pp}(κ^{-2})$ error; a matching Le Cam lower bound shows optimality up to logarithms. A geometrically $β$-mixing extension follows from a dependent matrix Bernstein inequality. Experiments with ambient dimension up to $200$, a three-change $d=100$ sequence, and a $128$-feature human-activity benchmark show that the method remains computationally practical and accurately detects pure dependence changes that are invisible to mean CUSUMs.

arXiv

Hybrid Quantum-inspired Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for Privacy-Aware Federated Biosignal Learning

Chun-Hua Lin, Samuel Yen-Chi Chen, Yu-Chao Hsu, Kuo-Chung Peng, Jiun-Cheng Jiang, Chi-Sheng Chen, Tai-Yue Li, Nan-Yow Chen, En-Jui Kuo, Hsi-Sheng Goan

Electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings are sensitive biomedical data, limiting the ability of hospitals and wearable devices to share raw signals for centralized model training. Federated learning addresses this practical privacy constraint by enabling collaborative model training while keeping raw biosignal data at their respective sources. However, federated ECG classification remains challenging due to limited client-side samples, imbalanced arrhythmia labels, and non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) data across clients. These constraints require classifiers that are both communication-efficient and robust to cross-client distribution shifts. In this work, we evaluate a hybrid quantum-inspired Kolmogorov-Arnold network (HQKAN) against a multilayer perceptron (MLP) for five-class arrhythmia classification on the MIT-BIH dataset and three-class classification on the INCART dataset under federated averaging (FedAvg). Across multiple client configurations, HQKAN improves most aggregate and minority-class metrics while using 37.35% fewer trainable parameters and reducing communication cost by 24.89% on MIT-BIH; on INCART, it achieves corresponding reductions of 44.81% and 36.41%. These results indicate that HQKAN offers a compact, communication-efficient and robust alternative to the MLP baseline for privacy-aware federated learning on biosignal data.

arXiv

MedMix: Specialization-Consistent Federated Sparse MoEs under Modality Heterogeneity

Adiba Orzikulova, Dong Min Kim, Jaehong Yoon, Sung-Ju Lee

Federated multimodal medical AI faces modality heterogeneity at both the client and sample levels: clients may systematically lack access to specific modality types, while individual records within the same client may contain different partial modality subsets. Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures are a promising remedy for modality-adaptive computation, but their use in federated learning is fragile under cross-client modality heterogeneity, where locally learned routing policies can diverge across clients and drive experts toward incompatible specializations. Different clients may assign the same observed modality configuration to different experts, or train similarly indexed experts on different missing-modality configurations, causing standard aggregation to misalign or overwrite the expert specialization that sparse MoEs are intended to learn. To address this challenge, we propose MedMix, a semantic-alignment framework for federated multimodal sparse MoEs that coordinates cross-client routing and expert specialization using modality context. At the client side, MedMix uses modality-context-aware routing to guide expert selection using each token's modality identity, position, and incompleteness context. Across clients, it uses consensus-guided routing alignment to construct server-side consensus anchors for shared modality patterns and align local routing distributions across clients. Complementing these routing mechanisms, client-adaptive expert aggregation leverages client-specific modality-pattern prototypes to match and aggregate functionally similar experts across clients. Experiments on real-world multimodal medical datasets show that MedMix achieves the best average F1 across diverse modality heterogeneity and modality incompleteness settings, with especially clear gains under severe heterogeneity.

arXiv

Fashion Outfit Generation via Unified Sequential Composition Models

Kaicheng Pang, Xingxing Zou, Ruohan Xu, Waikeung Wong

The task of synthesizing stylistically coherent fashion outfits from massive item libraries, known as fashion outfit generation, remains a non-trivial challenge, primarily due to the non-monotonic and implicit nature of aesthetic compatibility, coupled with the exponentially large combinatorial search space. In this paper, we formalize this task as Constrained Ensemble Generation (CEG) and model it as a finite-horizon deterministic Markov Decision Process. To address CEG in fashion, we propose the Unified Sequential Composition Model (USCM), which jointly models set-level compatibility and latent composition intents. Guided by USCM's learned priors, a Latent Expansion Monte Carlo Tree Search (LE-MCTS) mechanism is proposed to handle item retrieval during composition, balancing local aesthetic synergy with global structural balance. Extensive experiments on the Polyvore Outfits dataset, along with zero-shot evaluations on the iFashion and PolyvoreU datasets, demonstrate that our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance across independent human preference evaluations, automated aesthetic proxies, and structural validity metrics for constrained fashion outfit generation.

arXiv

Engineering Signals of Human-AI Collaboration in the Agentic Coding Era: A Longitudinal Analysis of 33,228 Pull Requests from vLLM and SGLang with Implications for Biomedical AI Agents and Bioinformatics Pipeline Developmen

Jiada Li, Xuesong Ye, Olamide Olowoniyi

The rapid adoption of AI coding assistants and autonomous agentic development systems has coincided with major changes in the pace and structure of open-source software engineering. Yet empirical longitudinal evidence of these changes at the team level remains limited. We present a descriptive longitudinal analysis of seven engineering metrics: pull request (PR) throughput, cycle time, contributor diversity, PR comment density, merge rate, new-author participation, and PR size. Metrics were computed from all merged PRs in two high-velocity AI infrastructure repositories, vLLM (February 2023-June 2026; 18,290 PRs) and SGLang (January 2024-June 2026; 14,938 PRs). We segment development into four eras aligned with major changes in AI-assisted software development and examine human- and bot-authored activities. Both projects show substantial increases in development velocity and AI-developer collaboration signals. PR throughput increased 21x in vLLM and 17.9x in SGLang, while bot-authored PRs accounted for less than 0.2% of this growth, indicating that the increase was overwhelmingly human-driven. In the latest era, median cycle time was 1.04 days for vLLM and 0.62 days for SGLang, while P90 cycle times reached 16.8 and 14.3 days, respectively. Monthly unique authors increased steadily in both projects, suggesting broader contributor participation. PR comment density increased 4.2x in vLLM and 3.8x in SGLang, with bot comments contributing an estimated 15-20% of the increase. In contrast, PR size remained relatively stable across eras. Overall, AI-assisted development is associated with higher throughput, broader contributor participation, and increased AI-developer collaboration signals in high-velocity open-source software development.

arXiv

Variation Brownian Kernel Ladders

Mahdi Mohammadigohari

Claims about the benefit of depth depend on the complexity assigned to a representation. We introduce the \emph{Variation Brownian Kernel Ladder} (VBKL), a path-atomic function-space framework that separates nonlinear recursive dictionary construction from linear variation superposition. Starting from linear projections, each atom recursively composes unit-ball profiles from the Brownian reproducing kernel Hilbert space; the full VBKL space is then the signed-measure variation hull of the completed dictionary. We identify each recursive dictionary as a union of Brownian pullback RKHS balls and establish variation-controlled Hölder regularity, compactness and attainment, and strict growth with depth under a local non-degeneracy condition whose trace lies in the support of the input measure. For associated finite lower-support architectures, we derive Rademacher and generalization bounds through Brownian quadratic chaos, signed threshold traces, and VC entropy. We also construct two-stage approximants by discretizing the outer measure and the selected outer Brownian profiles, obtaining an $M^{-1/2}+m^{-1/2}$ error bound, a sharp interpolation constant $\sqrt{A/2}$, and at most $2M$ active outer-profile basis contributions per evaluation. Controlled experiments illustrate the approximation mechanisms and indicate a favorable limited-data accuracy--complexity trade-off.

arXiv

Federated Prompt Learning: A Unified Framework, Empirical Analysis, and Future Directions

Qinglin Yang, Chen Qiu, Hongyuan Zhang, Pengdeng Li, Yuan Liu, Zhihong Tian

Large language models (LLMs) have become core components of cloud-based intelligent services in academia and industry, yet their training and deployment are hindered by high computational costs, data centralization, and privacy concerns. Federated learning (FL) offers a decentralized training paradigm that enables clients to collaboratively train a learning model without sharing raw data, making it a promising solution for privacy-preserving LLM training and reasoning. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of federated prompt learning (FPL) to review recent advances in integrating the federated learning paradigm and large language models, answering the following research questions: RQ1: The fundamental motivations, characteristics, and enabling technologies of FPL, and how it differs from conventional FL and full-model federated fine-tuning; RQ2: The trade-offs FPL approaches exhibit in performance, communication efficiency, computational overhead, scalability, personalization, and heterogeneity handling; RQ3: The remaining security, privacy, robustness, and system challenges, along with key future research directions. To this end, we systematically examine existing FPL methods across the full model lifecycle: pre-training, fine-tuning, and practical applications, while discussing security, privacy, and robustness issues and summarizing existing defense mechanisms. Finally, we highlight open challenges and future directions, aiming to help readers understand how the insights drive research in FPL.

arXiv

Simulation-to-real transfer learning for infrared spectroscopic chemical sensing and analysis from molecules to complex samples

Yusen Tan, Yixuan Chen, Zheng Fang, Pan Liu, Yifan Li, Qinyu Guo, Zhedong Lin, Yuqiang Li, xiangxiang Zeng, Tong Wang, Jun Xia

Infrared (IR) spectroscopy is widely used for chemical sensing, but extracting reliable chemical information from spectra remains challenging. Conventional interpretation is labor-intensive, relies on prior knowledge and reference spectra, and is difficult to scale, whereas most machine-learning methods are tailored to individual tasks or datasets, require large labeled training sets, and transfer poorly across analytical objectives and experimental datasets. Here we introduce UltraIR, a foundation model for IR spectroscopy with more than 100 million parameters that enables simulation-to-real transfer learning for chemical sensing and analysis from molecules to complex samples. UltraIR is pretrained on approximately 60 million simulated IR spectra using spectral reconstruction, molecular fingerprint similarity alignment, and functional-group prediction, then adapted to downstream objectives with task-specific labels or targets. Across functional-group prediction, molecular structure elucidation, physicochemical property prediction, mixture-component identification and quantification, bacterial classification, medicinal-herb geographic origin traceability and constituent quantification, microplastics classification, and soil property prediction, UltraIR outperforms conventional machine-learning and task-specific deep-learning baselines. It performs strongly with limited labeled experimental spectra and in zero-shot inference for the same analytical task across Fourier-transform infrared spectrometers and laboratories, providing a route to adaptable, data-efficient chemical sensing from complex real-world samples.

arXiv

Learning Discrete Decisions for MIPs with Constraint-Aware Diffusion

Vincenzo Di Vito, Mehdi Taghizadeh, Deepjyoti Deka, Kaarthik Sundar, Ferdinando Fioretto

This paper proposes a novel learning-based approach to approximately solve instances of mixed-integer optimization problems. These problems are computationally challenging, as they require jointly determining discrete and continuous decisions while satisfying complex combinatorial constraints. The proposed method relies on a graph-based generative diffusion model that learns the discrete component of mixed-integer optimization problems while integrating a training-free feasibility projection operator directly into the reverse diffusion process to steer intermediate samples toward the feasible set throughout generation. Once the discrete decisions are generated, the remaining optimization reduces to a continuous problem that can be solved efficiently (relative to the original problem) using existing numerical methods. The resulting framework named Constrained Graph Diffusion (CGD), is problem-agnostic and can accommodate a broad class of mixed-integer optimization problems through suitable projection operators. We evaluate CGD on optimal transmission switching for ACOPF and discrete portfolio optimization, demonstrating substantial improvements in feasibility and solution quality over learning-based baselines while achieving speedups of up to $425\times$ over state-of-the-art numerical solvers for MINLPs.

arXiv

Online Inference for Quantile Temporal Difference Learning in Distributional Reinforcement Learning

Zijie Cheng, Yang Peng, Zhihua Zhang

In this paper, we study how to perform statistical inference for quantile temporal difference learning (QTD) in distributional reinforcement learning. Assuming access to a generative model, we first establish functional central limit theorems for both synchronous and asynchronous QTD, which show that the averaged iterates of QTD converge weakly to a rescaled Brownian motion. We next provide online inference methods. Based on random scaling, the inference procedure constructs an asymptotically pivotal statistic for inference by using the information along the whole QTD path. Meanwhile, the proposed statistic can be computed online without storing the entire trajectory of QTD iterates. This substantially reduces the memory requirement and enables efficient statistical inference in distributional reinforcement learning.

arXiv

Fast A/B/n Testing: Exact Multi-Policy Comparison via Tree-Coupled Feedback Sharing

Yuxiao Wen

Online platforms increasingly compare many adaptive decision policies---ranking systems, recommendation algorithms, pricing rules, and language-model agents---while each reward-bearing interaction can be costly or risky. A direct A/B/n design gives each of $J\ge 2$ policies its own horizon-$T$ trajectory and therefore uses $JT$ outcomes. We introduce Tree-Coupled A/B Testing (\TCAB), an exact feedback-sharing design for arbitrary history-dependent contextual-bandit policies. At each round, a predictable tree connects the current policy histories; every parent--child context--action law is maximally coupled, and one reward is shared within each component of matched tree edges. Every policy retains exactly its standalone finite-horizon trajectory law, even though the policies are deliberately dependent. If $D_{e,t}$ records a mismatch on tree edge $e$ at round $t$, the number of reward queries satisfies the pathwise identity $N(T)=T+\sum_{t,e}D_{e,t}$ and hence equals $T$ plus cumulative tree-edge total variation in expectation. This cost is conditionally optimal among exact edge-local designs on the selected tree, and a current-round minimum-spanning tree is myopically optimal among tree designs. For fixed $J$, sublinear pseudo-regret of every policy and almost-sure uniqueness of the oracle action imply $\mathbb{E}[N(T)]=T+o(T)$, versus $JT$ for independent runs. We also obtain finite-sample variance bounds for pairwise policy contrasts. Experiments on reward-model evaluation, multiple-choice language-model evaluation, and adaptive search policies demonstrate substantial improvements in the cost--precision frontier.

arXiv

AI-Driven Multiscenario Interest Rate Forecasting: A Proof of Concept for Banking Asset Management

Ekkehardt Bauer, Dirk Holländer, David Scholz, Linus Wolff, Christoph Ostermair, Kyrillus Aiad, Joachim Hasebrook

This study focuses on developing an AI-supported prototype for multiperspective interest rate forecasting that combines classical econometric models with modern artificial intel-ligence methods. Tested in a major European bank, the system enables more precise and flexible prediction of interest rate developments, supporting strategic decision-making in Asset-Liability Management (ALM). It integrates topic modeling, sentiment analysis, econometric forecasting, and market-based analyses within an interactive platform. Leveraging AI to analyze large volumes of financial documents and market data enables the identification of monetary policy trends and sentiment signals at an early stage. The core econometric model is a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) that enables simulation-based scenario analyses to evaluate economic developments from multiple perspectives. The system's innovation lies in its integration of several forecasting approaches that consolidate previously separate information sources and present them transparently and interpretably. Financial analysts and risk managers thus gain a better basis for making decisions, allowing them to assess interest rate risks more accurately and manage market movements more proactively. While the prototype demonstrates how AI can transform interest rate management in banking, further development is required to optimize real-time data integration and regulatory compliance. Even at this stage, the study shows that multi-perspective, AI-driven forecasting provides substantial added value for banks by increasing transparency, strengthening evidence-based decision-making, and improving risk management.

arXiv

Test-Time Scaling for CAD Generation via Verifier-Free Consensus Selection

Aaron Haag, Altay Kacan, Bertram Fuchs, Oliver Lohse

Large language models can write parametric CAD programs from a natural-language description (text-to-CAD generation), but a single sample is often wrong. Increasing test-time compute by sampling multiple candidates only helps if a good candidate can be identified, yet no ground-truth model is available at generation time. Existing systems often require a separate verifier, such as a vision-language judge, to select among candidates. We investigate whether the candidate pool itself provides enough signal for effective selection and a verifier-free alternative. We introduce 3D CAD consensus selection, hereafter consensus selection: sample $N$ parametric CAD programs, compile them to 3D models, and return the candidate that agrees most with the rest of the pool. The method is training-free and compatible with existing CAD agents. We investigate geometric and topological notions of agreement, each of which improves its corresponding evaluation metric. On the exact candidate pools of a state-of-the-art CAD generation method, geometric consensus improves all three geometric metrics over the method's verifier, while topological consensus matches it on topology. Across every tested LLM and prompt variant, geometric consensus also improves geometric accuracy over random selection from the same pool, reducing Chamfer distance by $1-10\%$.

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