paperlist.ai

AI conference papers

AI conference paper library

Search papers from 30+ top conferences, including NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML, CVPR, ACL and AAAI. Filter by keyword, then open any paper for its abstract, authors and links.

arXiv

CENTILE: A Telemetry Foundation Model Evaluated by the Decisions It Drives

Zifan Zhang, Zhichao Hou, Tingxiang Ji, Yuchen Liu

Modern computing and networking infrastructure emits telemetry continuously, yet operators convert it into decisions with a separate predictor per task, entity, and horizon. One generative model, pretrained once over an operator's own event streams, could replace this fleet, an approach that already scales to high-cardinality streams in recommendation systems. However, point-forecast error on operational telemetry saturates near simple last-value baselines, so lower error alone need not improve the decisions it feeds. To close this gap, we present \sys, a generative foundation model for network and systems telemetry, evaluated by replaying the decisions its calibrated conditional quantiles drive. \sys treats heterogeneous telemetry as event-driven, irregularly timed entity streams and serves flexible forecast horizons in a single pass, requiring no future timestamps. To our knowledge, \sys is the first pretrained telemetry model to improve both HPC scheduling and network provisioning decisions under replay, its runtime estimator transferring zero-shot across months and its pretrained weights across domains from hours of target data. Extensive experiments on HPC job logs and network traffic confirm that \sys lowers the mean bounded slowdown of backfilling by up to approximately $77\%$ over deployed user estimates and roughly halves the deployed rule's violation rate. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZzZTripleZzZ/all-in-one.

arXiv

Beyond On-Policy Exploration: Integrating External Policy Rollouts for Reinforcement Learning in Diffusion Language Models

Wonseok Lee, Jimyeong Kim, Jungmin Ko, Wonjong Rhee

Recent reinforcement learning methods for diffusion large language models (dLLMs) commonly rely on on-policy rollouts generated by the target dLLM itself. When successful on-policy rollouts are scarce, however, on-policy training may receive little positive reward and make only limited progress. To mitigate this problem, we explore incorporating higher-reward rollouts generated by a stronger external policy alongside on-policy rollouts from the target dLLM. However, directly incorporating these external rollouts introduces two practical challenges: differences in rollout length and instability when jointly processing rewards from on-policy and external rollouts. To address these challenges, we propose External Rollout Integration with Length Control and Source-Specific Processing (ERILS), which controls external-rollout length and processes the rewards of on-policy and external rollouts separately. Experiments on Sudoku, Countdown, and MATH500 under zero-shot evaluation show that ERILS improves multi-sample performance across all three tasks, with the largest gains on Sudoku. On Sudoku, ERILS achieves 98.4% best-of-4 completion accuracy, compared with 40.3% for the strongest baseline. ERILS also maintains approximately 90% deterministic single-completion accuracy on Sudoku across generation lengths of 128, 256, and 512 tokens. Our component analysis further shows that length-controlled external rollouts are more effective than uncontrolled external rollouts, and that source-specific reward processing avoids the training collapse observed with joint reward processing. These results show that rollout construction and reward processing are important design dimensions when integrating external rollouts into dLLM reinforcement learning.

arXiv

Sharp Root Anti-Concentration via Projective Incidence and Ordered Root Laws

Zijun Wang, Yuchen Miao, Yifan Hu, Huanmin Liu

This paper answers the one-dimensional local root anti-concentration questions posed by Balcan, Pegden, and Sharma in the context of online optimization of piecewise-Lipschitz functions. For a homogeneous feature curve and coefficients whose density relative to the uniform law on a symmetric convex body $K$ is bounded by $A$, we show that the worst-case interval-hitting constant equals $A$ times a section-averaged projective incidence speed. For cube-supported coefficients, this speed is equivalent, up to universal constants, to the projective Lipschitz constant. This yields a sharp, dimension-free characterization and removes the previous $\sqrt N$ loss. For monic degree-$d$ polynomials under arbitrary coefficient laws, we prove that the interval-hitting constant is finite if and only if the ordered real-root laws have bounded densities, with a factor-$d$ comparison that is sharp. Conditional and joint coefficient-space area formulas, together with a two-chart certificate, make this criterion verifiable for dependent and singular coefficient laws. We also give two graph-learning applications that complete the transition-to-regret chain. A cost-sensitive Gaussian-RBF harmonic classifier uses the projective incidence theorem and achieves expected regret $\widetilde O((An^2D e^{BD}/\ell+1)\sqrt T)$. A common-offset polynomial-kernel model uses rigid translation of the ordered roots and achieves $\widetilde O((qn^2κ+1)\sqrt T)$ regret, even when the induced coefficient law is singular in the ambient coefficient space.

arXiv

Evaluating Forecasting Techniques for Hardware Errors on a Large-scale HPC System

Kaiyuan Liao, Xiwei Xuan, Tanwi Mallick, Kevin Brown, Christopher D. Carothers, Kwan-Liu Ma

Hardware error logs in high-performance computing (HPC) systems provide early signals of abnormal behavior, yet there remain challenges in effectively forecasting these errors using modern predictive methods. This work investigates the boundaries of applying time series forecasting to HPC hardware error dynamics. We use seven years of production logs from the Theta supercomputer to evaluate the predictive efficacy of classical statistical and deep learning models. Our results show that forecasting effectiveness depends strongly on the temporal structure of the error series: regularly occurring and structurally stable errors can be modeled accurately, particularly by LSTM and Transformer architectures with temporal features, while sparse and burst-dominated errors remain difficult to predict. Rather than proposing a deployment-ready failure prediction framework, this study provides empirical guidance on when forecasting is effective and highlights potential directions for improving forecasting accuracy in HPC hardware error analysis.

arXiv

GraphIR: Architecture-Level Search States for LLM-Guided Neural Architecture Evolution

Zhen Liu, Wanqi Zhou, Shuanghao Bai, Yuhan Liu, Jinjun Wang, Jingwen Fu

Large language models (LLMs) enable neural architecture search (NAS) directly over executable neural network programs. However, code-level flexibility does not provide the architecture state needed for effective mutation: LLMs must infer tensor dependencies, editable components, and compatibility constraints from implementation details. To address this representation mismatch, we propose GraphIR, an architecture-aware intermediate representation that supplements executable programs with a mutation-aligned candidate state. GraphIR organizes each candidate through three complementary views: a computation skeleton describing tensor flow, a mutation surface exposing editable modules and operations, and a validity envelope capturing interface contracts, propagated shapes, and downstream dependencies. To evaluate our method, we construct NAS-Dependency, a 120-question benchmark covering six complementary dependency-reasoning dimensions. The diagnostic shows that GraphIR is particularly effective at identifying exact producer occurrences, tracing dependency propagation, and diagnosing interface and failure risks. Across six downstream benchmarks including CLRS, GraphIR achieves the best overall search performance while maintaining comparable model size and favorable end-to-end NAS efficiency when integrated into OpenEvolve. These results show that a mutation-oriented architecture state provides an effective interface between executable neural programs and LLM-guided architecture evolution.

arXiv

QWRF-Net: A Quantum-Wavelet Framework with Rectified Flow for Short-Term Precipitation Nowcasting

Zhuo Wang, chaorong li, Wenjie Luo, Chuanhu Deng

Short-term precipitation nowcasting is important for hydrometeorological early warning, especially when intense convective rainfall may trigger urban flooding, flash floods, and other high-impact hazards. A key challenge in warning-oriented nowcasting is that radar precipitation fields contain strongly coupled multi-scale structures, while forecast quality often degrades at later lead times, making it difficult to preserve intense precipitation cores and their spatial organization over the full warning-relevant horizon. To address this problem, we propose QWRF-Net, a quantum-wavelet framework with rectified flow for short-term precipitation nowcasting. The core idea is to improve the conditional representation of precipitation by explicitly decomposing latent features into wavelet sub-bands and then performing differentiated quantum-inspired modulation in the decomposed latent space, before generating future sequences through a rectified-flow-based non-autoregressive decoder. Experiments on the KNMI radar and SEVIR benchmarks under a unified evaluation protocol show that QWRF-Net achieves favorable overall performance, with relatively consistent gains at medium-to-high precipitation thresholds, on an extreme-event subset, and in preserving intense precipitation cores and fine-scale structures. Ablation results further indicate that wavelet-based scale disentanglement, differentiated sub-band modulation, and flow-based generation provide complementary benefits within the proposed framework. Overall, these results suggest that jointly enhancing multi-scale precipitation representation and stable multi-step generation is a promising direction for warning-oriented short-term precipitation nowcasting. The observed improvements may also provide a more useful precipitation basis for downstream hydrological and warning-related applications.

arXiv

Online Algorithms via Minimax and Posterior Matching

Thomas Kesselheim, Marco Molinaro, Kalen Patton, Sahil Singla

Competitive analysis is central to the study of online algorithms, but upper bounds are often highly problem-specific. We develop a more unifying methodology via the minimax viewpoint. Guided by Yao's principle, we reduce worst-case competitive analysis to Bayesian online design under an arbitrary correlated prior over arrival sequences. For such a prior, let $X^*$ be the hindsight-optimal fractional solution for the realized instance, and let $X^{(t)}=\mathbb E[X^*\mid \mathcal F_t]$ be its posterior process. Our guiding rule is posterior matching: at each time $t$, choose the feasible online action that tracks the current posterior $X^{(t)}$ as closely as the online constraints permit. We show that this single principle yields optimal or near-optimal guarantees for several classical online fractional problems, including set cover, load balancing, matching and more general resource-allocation problems, recovering or improving state-of-the-art bounds in these settings with norm/concave objectives. Via known rounding reductions, it also yields randomized integral guarantees for weighted paging, MTS on star metrics, and ski-rental. At a technical level, our analysis reduces competitive guarantees to key probabilistic inequalities for the vector martingales generated by the posterior of the offline optimum. The resulting framework gives a reusable route from Bayesian online design under arbitrary correlated priors to information-theoretic worst-case competitive guarantees.

arXiv

Latent-Regime Bias Auditing for Volatility Forecasting

Arthur Chagas, Pedro Bento, Yan Aquino, Arthur Buzelin, Wagner Meira Jr., Cristiano Arbex Valle

Volatility forecasts are commonly evaluated with aggregate accuracy metrics such as RMSE and MAE, but these metrics can hide conditional failures that matter for risk management. This paper proposes a model-agnostic audit framework for evaluating whether volatility forecasts remain reliable across latent market regimes. We learn time-series representations of market-state windows, cluster them into regimes using only training information, assign regimes out of sample, and compare aggregate forecast behavior with regime-conditional bias, tail-underprediction, and underprediction-sensitive economic losses. Applied to daily volatility forecasting across cryptocurrency and ETF assets, the audit shows that models with competitive aggregate accuracy can still exhibit substantial regime-specific bias and severe tail underprediction. The results suggest that volatility forecasting should be evaluated not only by average error, but also by where and how forecasts become unreliable. Our framework shifts forecast evaluation from asking which model is most accurate on average to identifying the market regimes in which apparently accurate forecasts fail conditionally. Reproducibility: https://github.com/arthurchagas1/Latent-Regime-Bias-Auditing-for-Volatility-Forecasting

arXiv

HindSearch: Trajectory-Level Hindsight Critique for Search-Augmented Reinforcement Learning

Haowei Liu, Jiamian Wang, Hsin-Tai Wu, Zhiqiang Tao, Yi Fang

Search-augmented LM agents are typically trained with a binary exact-match reward, which throws away most of what a failed trajectory tells us about why it failed. We introduce HindSearch, a hindsight self-distillation procedure for GRPO: after each rollout, a frozen judge writes a short critique of every failed trajectory using the gold answer, and the critique supplies an auxiliary on-policy distillation signal on the student's search actions. On the standard seven-benchmark suite with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct, HindSearch reaches 39.4% average EM, outperforming prior search-RL baselines. Removing the judge's access to the gold answer erases most of the gain, isolating hindsight as the source of the improvement.

arXiv

The Label Defines the Timescale: Trait-State Limits of Temporal-Aggregate Learning

Xizhe Zhang

Machine-learning benchmarks often pair a label that aggregates a long temporal horizon with input observed through one or a few short windows. Their apparent performance ceiling may therefore be an acquisition-protocol ceiling rather than a model-capacity ceiling. We study labels of the form $Θ_{g,T}=T^{-1}\int_0^T g\{Z(t)\}\,\mathrm{d}t$ when the latent Gaussian process contains both a stable individual trait and a correlated within-individual state. An exact protocol-conditioned Bayes-risk identity provides a common tool. First, we decompose label variance into an $O(1)$ trait component and an $O(T^{-1})$ state component, explaining why a snapshot can retain cross-sectional predictability while poorly tracking within-person change. Second, we derive task-dependent effective temporal spans: mean labels depend on the ordinary correlation time, whereas occupation-time labels depend on an entire spectrum of higher-order correlation times. Third, state-driven occupation-label variance is maximal when the stable trait lies at the threshold; window efficiency decays much more slowly away from that boundary. Under an equal segment budget, exact risks and Monte Carlo experiments show that repeated segments at one time rapidly saturate, whereas temporally dispersed observations continue to increase state explainability. The trait ceiling uses quantities available from ordinary test-retest data; only the state ceiling requires short-lag temporal calibration. The results distinguish architectural limits from protocol limits and show that the label, rather than duration or segment count alone, defines the relevant timescale.

arXiv

Statistical comparisons of time-series feature sets on classification tasks

Trent Henderson, Ben D. Fulcher

In recent years, numerous open-source software libraries have been developed for computing sets of features from univariate time series. The type and number of features vary across these feature sets, which have been constructed with varying disciplinary perspectives on quantifying structure in time-series data. To date, the relative strengths and weaknesses of these feature sets on time-series classification problems remains largely unexplored. Here we aimed to understand the relative performance of six open-source feature sets and three baseline feature sets (based on distributional and/or basic spectral structure) across 124 univariate time-series classification problems using a normalization-based approach to problem-level benchmarking that better indexes the relative strengths and weaknesses of different algorithms compared to prior rank-based approaches. Despite their dramatic differences in size, composition, and computation time, we found that feature sets performed relatively similarly overall (85.3% of pairwise comparisons resulted in ties), with the largest feature set, tsfresh, exhibiting the strongest overall performance (29.03% wins across all pairwise comparisons against other feature sets). We also highlighted specific problems on which the specific composition of a given feature set gave it a substantial performance advantage or disadvantage, and problems where simple baselines comprised of Fourier coefficients and quantiles were sufficient to achieve strong performance. Our results demonstrate the need to consider problem-level performance when benchmarking time-series feature sets, and highlight the importance of feature make-up in driving relative classification performance.

arXiv

Measuring in-context algorithmic reasoning in language models against an exact Bayes-optimal standard

Hector Zenil, Luan Ozelim

Whether large language models perform genuine algorithmic reasoning or mere pattern completion is hard to test, because most benchmarks lack a ground truth for correct inductive inference. We introduce F-ICL, an in-context-learning benchmark that supplies one exactly. Using the Turing-complete machine F, complement-symmetrised into sF to remove output-polarity bias, we exhaustively enumerate all 1.5 billion programs of length $L\le13$ and compute the Bayes-optimal posterior in closed form under a bounded universal (Levin--Solomonoff) prior; models are scored by how closely their served distributions approach it at matched evidence. Each task is paired with its bitwise complement, on which the optimum scores identically, so an original-twin gap isolates the model's inductive bias. Across 105 serving configurations spanning 37 open models (0.8B--675B) and frontier systems from four laboratories, models answer up to 92\% of queries correctly, yet 45 of 46 models yield distributions farther from the optimum than a keystroke reference, and their behaviour is bracketed by low-order prefix statistics fitted only on visible evidence. That reference is itself an algorithmic mixture, induced by a print-only machine with no loops, so the panel's implied measure sits closer to a loop-free mixture than to the loop-bearing optimum, independently of the reference machine. Updating is also non-monotone, which no prior explains: a Bayes-rational solved set can only grow in this realisable, noiseless setting, yet added examples produce $6{,}545$ solved-to-unsolved transitions against $13{,}702$ gains. The gap is not predicted by accuracy (Spearman $ρ=-0.19$, $p=0.21$), does not close with scale or across frontier generations in the serving modes that expose distributions, and is widened by instruction and reasoning post-training. F-ICL is released as an open, reproducible benchmark and toolkit.

arXiv

Meganeura: Portable GPU Training and Inference through Vulkan and Metal

Dzmitry Malyshau

Training and deployed inference often cross export, conversion, and platform-specific runtime boundaries. Meganeura asks whether one compact native compiler can span both phases on consumer GPUs. Its typed static graph, automatic differentiation, optimizer, checkpoint, memory planner, and runtime lower specialized programs through Vulkan and Metal. We compare five matched workloads with PyTorch on NVIDIA and AMD discrete GPUs, an AMD APU, Apple silicon, and an Intel iGPU. The protocol separates strict f32 from validated fast paths and gates forward and backward independently. Forty-eight of 50 device-workload-mode cells pass both gates; the other two share one unresolved backward-reference disagreement on a newly supported APU. In strict f32, Meganeura wins 12 of 20 GPU-referenced minimal-latency cells and has a median valid training gap of 1.8x. On the discrete AMD GPU, four of five inference workloads are within 1.10x of compiled ROCm PyTorch and three training workloads are faster. Under accelerated contracts, the worst training gap is 4.6x. Compilation takes 0.1-2.4 seconds versus 6-96 seconds for torch.compile on supported GPU paths; the stripped binary is 13 MiB. Dispatch profiles localize the largest gaps to convolution derivatives and attention backward. A physical Android XR case study transfers a Meganeura-trained decoder into an Adreno/OpenXR application sharing the graphics queue. The results show that general consumer graphics APIs can support a compact shared train-to-deploy stack at useful, sometimes vendor-competitive performance. The measured gaps point to kernel coverage, scheduling, and arithmetic policy rather than an identified API limitation.

arXiv

Rethinking Personalized Reward Modeling for LLMs under Preference Heterogeneity via Group-Debiased Federated Learning

Seongyoon Kim, Boryeong Cho, Jihwan Oh, Seokhyun Chung, Se-Young Yun

Large language models are increasingly aligned to human preferences via reward modeling, but user preference data are sensitive and often cannot be centralized. Federated learning keeps such data local while learning a shared initial reward model, which is later personalized for each client through local fine-tuning. Because users often assign opposite labels to the same pair of responses, existing federated methods address preference heterogeneity by clustering similar clients and training one reward model per group, assuming that each group requires its own initialization. We show that this assumption is unnecessary. Under balanced preference groups, a single FedAvg model, despite starting at nearly random accuracy, surpasses reward models trained separately for each ground-truth group after only a few local optimization steps. We attribute this phenomenon to the flatness of the shared initialization: averaging across all clients learns richer shared representations that distinguish responses while canceling conflicting preference directions, leaving the model near a decision boundary that can be rapidly adapted. Group imbalance breaks this effect as the cancellation becomes asymmetric and leaves minority clients too far from the boundary to recover. Motivated by this observation, we propose FedGD (Federated Learning with Group Debiasing), which discovers latent preference groups during federated training and learns a single reward model using group-debiased client sampling. By counteracting the effect of group imbalance, FedGD learns an initialization that remains highly adaptable, enabling effective personalization without prior knowledge of the underlying groups.

arXiv

Generalized Quadratic Gradient: A New Direction in Optimization via the Fusion of Positive-Definite Curvature Matrices and Gradients into A Unified Framework

John Chiang

Quadratic Gradient (QG) is a Newton-type optimization framework that bridges first-order gradient descent and second-order optimization by incorporating curvature information into gradient updates. Simplified Quadratic Gradient (SQG) reduces the complexity of QG construction while preserving its optimization capability, whereas Quasi-Quadratic Gradient (QQG) extends the quadratic gradient principle to quasi-Newton methods such as BFGS. In this paper, we propose **Generalized Quadratic Gradient (GQG)**, a unified framework that extends the quadratic gradient principle to a broader class of Newton-type optimization algorithms. By abstracting the common structure of existing quadratic gradient methods, we show that the fundamental requirement of quadratic gradient construction is not limited to specific Hessian approximations, such as constant Hessian matrices, diagonal Hessian approximations, or BFGS-based Hessian surrogates. Instead, it can be generalized to any positive-definite curvature matrix satisfying the stationary condition of a local quadratic model. Based on this perspective, we investigate the construction of generalized quadratic gradients using various positive-definite Hessian surrogates beyond BFGS, providing a broader foundation for developing curvature-aware optimization algorithms.

arXiv

Finite-Probe Total-Variation Certificates for Finite-Basis Drifting Models

Sam Andersson, Ricky Molén

Drifting objectives compare a target and model distribution through a vector field observed noisily at finitely many locations. We ask what distributional conclusion such a frozen measurement system warrants. For integrable antisymmetric interactions and absolutely continuous laws in a declared finite density basis, the unnormalized sampled numerator satisfies $\operatorname{vec}(V_X)=Mc$, where $c$ is an antisymmetric mismatch and $M$ is probe-dependent. This identity yields an a posteriori total-variation (TV) upper confidence bound accounting for held-out field noise, estimated-operator error, and externally validated $L^1$ residual radii around normalized density approximants in the span; a nonpositive observability margin returns the trivial TV bound and abstains. The audit recomputes this numerator from held-out samples; a normalized drift statistic requires a separate joint numerator--denominator analysis. For Gaussian-RBF interactions, a global envelope supports distribution-free and empirical-Bernstein radii without truncation, with companion bounds for the Laplace similarity in the original drifting objective. We characterize random-probe observability by a population Gram matrix, identify rank and symmetry degeneracies, and prove large-bandwidth collapse toward mean matching. Synthetic studies exercise Gaussian and Laplace numerators, separately prespecified bounded-vector and variance-adaptive radii, Monte Carlo-calibrated operators, nonzero residual radii around normalized finite-basis approximants, outward-rounded observability bounds, and designed abstention. A joint basis-size/dimension stress path extends evaluation through $m=8$. The result is a conditional diagnostic for a finite density class, or for normalized finite-basis density approximants with external residual radii, not a universal guarantee from small training drift.

arXiv

The persuasive power of large language models does not depend on their perceived national origin

Ningzhi Liu, Yannic Hinrichs, Jonas R. Kunst

Conversational AI developed by geopolitical rivals reaches citizens worldwide, raising concerns that it could sway public opinion or be rejected as foreign propaganda, with consequences for democratic discourse and information sovereignty. Yet, whether an AI's perceived national origin shapes its persuasive power is unknown. In a preregistered randomized experiment, 403 adults from a nationally representative United States sample held a three-round debate with a chatbot introduced as either American ("DiscoveryAI") or Chinese ("ZhengheAI"), discussing a political or non-political topic. In all conditions, participants actually conversed with the same model (GPT-4o), instructed to argue against their initial position. We combined pre- and post-conversation self-reports of attitudes, trust, and collective narcissism with computational analyses of 1,209 participant turns, including LLM-coded stance and argumentative conduct, stance-sensitive embeddings, and keyword-masked emotion and toxicity classifiers. The conversations produced substantial attitude changes in every condition. Critically, the nationality label affected neither self-reported attitude change nor expressed stance, concessions, counterarguing, or affect, and equivalence tests and Bayes factors largely supported these null effects. The label's only reliable footprint was lower pre-conversation human-like trust in the Chinese model, whereas functionality trust was unaffected. Political topics slowed stance movement toward the AI's position, and collective narcissism predicted less attitude change regardless of origin, acting as a general barrier rather than an out-group filter. Users thus initially withhold social trust from a rival's AI yet still assimilate its arguments; origin labeling and transparency requirements alone may offer weak protection against foreign influence operations conducted through conversational AI.

arXiv

Identifying Informative Environments for Cognition Parameter Inference via Bayesian Experimental Design

Manisha Dubey, Rimvydas Rubavicius, N Siddharth, Subramanian Ramamoorthy

Computational cognitive modeling seeks to infer latent cognitive mechanisms underlying observed behavior. Bayesian inverse planning provides a principled framework for such inference, but its success depends critically on the experimental environment. Existing approaches typically treat environments as fixed, leaving open the question of which cognitive experiments are most informative for cognition parameter inference. We formulate the design of cognitive planning experiments as a Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) problem, treating the experimental environment as the design variable. We establish an exact Monte Carlo BED benchmark and introduce an amortized Bayesian experimental design framework for efficient posterior inference and design evaluation. Experiments on the Mouselab-MDP process-tracing paradigm show that amortized BED closely matches the environment rankings of exact Monte Carlo BED while substantially reducing computational cost. We further show that no single environment is uniformly optimal across cognitive inference objectives, revealing trade-offs between expected information gain, posterior recoverability, and information efficiency. These results provide a principled framework for designing informative cognitive experiments for Bayesian parameter inference.

arXiv

Specula: Scaling formal specifications for autonomous model checking of system code

QIan Cheng, Saad Mohammad Rafid Pial, Ruize Tang, Yiming Su, Emilie Ma, Finn Hackett, Ivan Beschastnikh, Yu Huang, Tianyin Xu

Specula is a push-button agentic system that generates high-quality formal specifications for large, complex system code and uses the specifications for highly effective model checking and bug finding. Specula employs large language model (LLM) based coding agents to autonomously develop TLA+ specifications, including invariants that describe correctness properties of the target system and formal models that describe the system implementation with the right level of abstractions. Specula is fully autonomous and thus eliminates the barrier of applying formal methods to real-world system code (as in traditional human-centric approaches). Meanwhile, Specula addresses limitations of LLM-driven techniques like reward hacking and hallucinations through self-evolving loops that iteratively improve specification quality by enabling the agents to deepen their understanding of system code and its behaviors. We have used Specula to check 48 open-source system projects; Specula found 249 bugs including many deep bugs that are hard to find by existing approaches. Specula has been used by several companies and is maintained at https://github.com/specula-org/Specula.

arXiv

Simulating Tenant Responses to Energy Policy Interventions with Transaction-Cost-Aware LLM Agent

Weijie Xia, Stefanie Horian, Hanyue Huang, Queena K. Qian, Jie Yang, Pedro P. Vergara

Recent studies use Large language models (LLMs) to simulate human opinions and decisions by prompting models with demographic, attitudinal, or persona-based descriptions. Yet such simulations rarely model the practical, cognitive, or social frictions that shape how people respond to policy interventions. Perceived transaction cost (PTC) provides a useful lens for modeling the practical frictions that shape policy responses, such as information burden, administrative effort, coordination demands, and perceived uncertainty. We use this lens to develop a friction-aware persona modeling approach for LLM-based simulation. In the context of energy-efficient renovation (EER), tenants are represented not only by who they are demographically, but by how they perceive the costs, benefits, barriers, and uncertainties associated with proposed renovation plans. Using survey data collected from 1,068 citizens in the Netherlands, comprising approximately 40,548 survey question and answer pairs, we compare prompt-only and fine-tuned settings across GPT-3.5-turbo, Ministral-8B-Instruct, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, and evaluate supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for local open-weight models. Results show that incorporating PTC-based personas and reasoning consistently improves model performance across both prompt-only and fine-tuned settings, suggesting that PTC-based persona design provides a useful bridge between institutional policy theory and interpretable LLM-based policy simulation. Code is available at https://github.com/xiaweijie1996/socialagent.

Keep browsing

More papers from top AI conferences

30+ top conferences, by conference, year, and topic.