UAI 2024 Papers

Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence

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201papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

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Generalized Expected Utility as a Universal Decision Rule – A Step Forward

Hélène Fargier, Pierre Pomeret-Coquot

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In order to capture a larger range of decision rules, this paper extends the seminal work of [Friedman and Halpern, 1995, Chu and Halpern, 2003, 2004] about Generalized Expected Utility. We introduce the notion of algebraic mass function (and of algebraic Möbius transform) and provide a new algebraic expression for expected utility based on such functions. This utility, that we call "XEU", generalizes Chu and Halpern’s GEU to non-decomposable measures and allows for the representation of several rules that could not be captured up to this point, and noticeably, of the Choquet integral. A representation theorem is provided that shows that only a very weak condition is needed for a rule in order to be representable as a XEU.

Poster
Generalization and Learnability in Multiple Instance Regression

Kushal Chauhan, Rishi Saket, Lorne Applebaum, Ashwinkumar Badanidiyuru, Chandan Giri, Aravindan Raghuveer

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Multiple instance regression (MIR) was introduced by Ray and Page (2001) as an analogue of multiple instance learning (MIL) in which we are given bags of feature-vectors (instances) and for each bag there is a bag-label which matches the label of one (unknown) primary instance from that bag. The goal is to compute a hypothesis regressor consistent with the underlying instance-labels. A natural approach is to find the best primary instance assignment and regressor optimizing the mse loss on the bags though no formal generalization guarantees were known. Our work is the first to prove generalization error bounds for MIR when the bags are drawn i.i.d. at random. Essentially, with high probability any MIR regressor with low error on sampled bags also has low error on the underlying instance-label distribution. We next study the complexity of linear regression on MIR bags, shown to be NP-hard in general by Ray and Page (2001), who however left open the possibility of arbitrarily good approximations. Significantly strengthening previous work, we prove a strong inapproximability bound: even if there exists zero bag-loss MIR linear regressor on a collection of $2$-sized bags with labels in $[-1,1]$, it is NP-hard to find an MIR linear regressor with bag-loss $< C$ for some absolute constant $C > 0$. Our work also proposes a model training method for MIR based on a novel weighted assignment loss, geared towards handling overlapping bags which have not received much attention previously. We conduct empirical evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets showing that our method outperforms the baseline MIR methods.

Poster
General Markov Model for Solving Patrolling Games

Andrzej Nagorko, Marcin Waniek, Małgorzata Róg, Michał Godziszewski, Barbara Rosiak, Tomasz Paweł Michalak

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Safeguarding critical infrastructure has recently emerged as a global challenge. To address complex security concerns raised by broadening array of threats, effective mobile security forces are essential. A key aspect involves designing optimal patrolling strategies for mobile units. Two bodies of research dealt with this: stochastic patrolling and partially observable stochastic games. Alas, the first approach makes too-far-reaching simplifying assumption and the second one is more expressive but computationally challenging. The model proposed in this paper is inspired by partially observable stochastic games so that it is general enough to enable comprehensive modeling of attacker-defender interactions but a the same time remains computationally friendly. With our proposed robust SHIELD algorithm, we are able to find a defense strategy where the probability of apprehending the attacker can be nearly doubled compared to the state of the art.

Poster
GeONet: a neural operator for learning the Wasserstein geodesic

Andrew Gracyk, Xiaohui Chen

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Optimal transport (OT) offers a versatile framework to compare complex data distributions in a geometrically meaningful way. Traditional methods for computing the Wasserstein distance and geodesic between probability measures require mesh-specific domain discretization and suffer from the curse-of-dimensionality. We present GeONet, a mesh-invariant deep neural operator network that learns the non-linear mapping from the input pair of initial and terminal distributions to the Wasserstein geodesic connecting the two endpoint distributions. In the offline training stage, GeONet learns the saddle point optimality conditions for the dynamic formulation of the OT problem in the primal and dual spaces that are characterized by a coupled PDE system. The subsequent inference stage is instantaneous and can be deployed for real-time predictions in the online learning setting. We demonstrate that GeONet achieves comparable testing accuracy to the standard OT solvers on simulation examples and the MNIST dataset with considerably reduced inference-stage computational cost by orders of magnitude.

Poster
GCVR: Reconstruction from Cross-View Enable Sufficient and Robust Graph Contrastive Learning

Qianlong Wen, Zhongyu Ouyang, Chunhui Zhang, Yiyue Qian, Chuxu Zhang, Yanfang Ye

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Among the existing self-supervised learning (SSL) methods for graphs, graph contrastive learning (GCL) frameworks usually automatically generate supervision by transforming the same graph into different views through graph augmentation operations. The computation-efficient augmentation techniques enable the prevalent usage of GCL to alleviate the supervision shortage issue. Despite the remarkable performance of those GCL methods, the InfoMax principle used to guide the optimization of GCL has been proven to be insufficient to avoid redundant information without losing important features. In light of this, we introduce the Graph Contrastive Learning with Cross-View Reconstruction (GCVR), aiming to learn robust and sufficient representation from graph data. Specifically, GCVR introduces a cross-view reconstruction mechanism based on conventional graph contrastive learning to elicit those essential features from raw graphs. Besides, we introduce an extra adversarial view perturbed from the original view in the contrastive loss to pursue the intactness of the graph semantics and strengthen the representation robustness. We empirically demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines on graph classification tasks over multiple benchmark datasets.

Poster
Functional Wasserstein Variational Policy Optimization

Junyu Xuan, Mengjing Wu, Zihe Liu, Jie Lu

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Variational policy optimization has become increasingly attractive to the reinforcement learning community because of its strong capability in uncertainty modeling and environment generalization. However, almost all existing studies in this area rely on Kullback{–}Leibler (KL) divergence which is unfortunately ill-defined in several situations. In addition, the policy is parameterized and optimized in weight space, which may not only bring additional unnecessary bias but also make the policy learning harder due to the complicatedly dependent weight posterior. In the paper, we design a novel functional Wasserstein variational policy optimization (FWVPO) based on the Wasserstein distance between function distributions. Specifically, we firstly parameterize policy as a Bayesian neural network but from a function-space view rather than a weight-space view and then propose FWVPO to optimize and explore the functional policy posterior. We prove that our FWVPO is a valid variational Bayesian objective and also guarantees the monotonic expected reward improvement under certain conditions. Experimental results on multiple reinforcement learning tasks demonstrate the efficiency of our new algorithm in terms of both cumulative rewards and uncertainty modeling capability.

Poster
Functional Wasserstein Bridge Inference for Bayesian Deep Learning

Mengjing Wu, Junyu Xuan, Jie Lu

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Bayesian deep learning (BDL) is an emerging field that combines the strong function approximation power of deep learning with the uncertainty modeling capabilities of Bayesian methods. In addition to those virtues, however, there are accompanying issues brought by such a combination to the classical parameter-space variational inference, such as the nonmeaningful priors, intricate posteriors, and possible pathologies. In this paper, we propose a new function-space variational inference solution called Functional Wasserstein Bridge Inference (FWBI), which can assign meaningful functional priors and obtain well-behaved posterior. Specifically, we develop a Wasserstein distance-based bridge to avoid the potential pathological behaviors of Kullback{–}Leibler (KL) divergence between stochastic processes that arise in most existing functional variational inference approaches. The derived functional variational objective is well-defined and proved to be a lower bound of the model evidence. We demonstrate the improved predictive performance and better uncertainty quantification of our FWBI on several tasks compared with various parameter-space and function-space variational methods.

Poster
Finite-Time Analysis of Three-Timescale Constrained Actor-Critic and Constrained Natural Actor-Critic Algorithms.

Prashansa Panda, Shalabh Bhatnagar

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Actor Critic methods have found immense applications on a wide range of Reinforcement Learning tasks especially when the state-action space is large. In this paper, we consider actor critic and natural actor critic algorithms with function approximation for constrained Markov decision processes (C-MDP) involving inequality constraints and carry out a non-asymptotic analysis for both of these algorithms in a non-i.i.d (Markovian) setting. We consider the long-run average cost criterion where both the objective and the constraint functions are suitable policy-dependent long-run averages of certain prescribed cost functions. We handle the inequality constraints using the Lagrange multiplier method. We prove that these algorithms are guaranteed to find a first-order stationary point (i.e., $\Vert \nabla L(\theta,\gamma)\Vert_2^2 \leq \epsilon$) of the performance (Lagrange) function $L(\theta,\gamma)$, with a sample complexity of $\mathcal{\tilde{O}}(\epsilon^{-2.5})$ in the case of both Constrained Actor Critic (C-AC) and Constrained Natural Actor Critic (C-NAC) algorithms. We also show the results of experiments on three different Safety-Gym environments.

Poster
FedAST: Federated Asynchronous Simultaneous Training

Baris Askin, Pranay Sharma, Carlee Joe-Wong, Gauri Joshi

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Federated Learning (FL) enables edge devices or clients to collaboratively train machine learning (ML) models without sharing their private data. Much of the existing work in FL focuses on efficiently learning a model for a single task. In this paper, we study simultaneous training of multiple FL models using a common set of clients. The few existing simultaneous training methods employ synchronous aggregation of client updates, which can cause significant delays because large models and/or slow clients can bottleneck the aggregation. On the other hand, a naive asynchronous aggregation is adversely affected by stale client updates. We propose FedAST, a buffered asynchronous federated simultaneous training algorithm that overcomes bottlenecks from slow models and adaptively allocates client resources across heterogeneous tasks. We provide theoretical convergence guarantees for FedAST for smooth non-convex objective functions. Extensive experiments over multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms existing simultaneous FL approaches, achieving up to 46.0% reduction in time to train multiple tasks to completion.

Poster
Faster Perfect Sampling of Bayesian Network Structures

Juha Harviainen, Mikko Koivisto

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Bayesian inference of a Bayesian network structure amounts to averaging over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) on a given set of $n$ variables, each DAG weighted by its posterior probability. In practice, save some special inference tasks, one averages over a sample of DAGs generated perfectly or approximately from the posterior. For the hard problem of perfect sampling, we give an algorithm that runs in $O(2.829^n)$ expected time, getting below $O(3^n)$ for the first time. Our algorithm reduces the problem into two smaller sampling problems whose outputs are combined; followed by a simple rejection step, perfect samples are obtained. Subsequent samples can be generated considerably faster. Empirically, we observe speedups of several orders of magnitude over the state of the art.

Poster
Fast Reliability Estimation for Neural Networks with Adversarial Attack-Driven Importance Sampling

Karim TIT, Teddy Furon

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This paper introduces a novel approach to evaluate the reliability of Neural Networks (NNs) by integrating adversarial attacks with Importance Sampling (IS), enhancing the assessment’s precision and efficiency. Leveraging adversarial attacks to guide IS, our method efficiently identifies vulnerable input regions, offering a more directed alternative to traditional Monte Carlo methods. While comparing our approach with classical reliability techniques like FORM and SORM, and with classical rare event simulation methods such as Cross-Entropy IS, we acknowledge its reliance on the effectiveness of adversarial attacks and its inability to handle very high-dimensional data such as ImageNet. Despite these challenges, our comprehensive empirical validations on the datasets the MNIST and CIFAR10 demonstrate the method’s capability to accurately estimate NN reliability for a variety of models. Our research not only presents an innovative strategy for reliability assessment in NNs but also sets the stage for further work exploiting the connection between adversarial robustness and the field of statistical reliability engineering.

Poster
Fast Interactive Search under a Scale-Free Comparison Oracle

Daniyar Chumbalov, Lars Klein, Lucas Maystre, Matthias Grossglauser

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A comparison-based search algorithm lets a user find a target item $t$ in a database by answering queries of the form, “Which of items $i$ and $j$ is closer to $t$?” Instead of formulating an explicit query (such as one or several keywords), the user navigates towards the target via a sequence of such (typically noisy) queries. We propose a scale-free probabilistic oracle model called $\gamma$-CKL for such similarity triplets $(i,j;t)$, which generalizes the CKL triplet model proposed in the literature. The generalization affords independent control over the discriminating power of the oracle and the dimension of the feature space containing the items. We develop a search algorithm with provably exponential rate of convergence under the $\gamma$-CKL oracle, thanks to a backtracking strategy that deals with the unavoidable errors in updating the belief region around the target. We evaluate the performance of the algorithm both over the posited oracle and over several real-world triplet datasets. We also report on a comprehensive user study, where human subjects navigate a database of face portraits.

Poster
Fair Active Learning in Low-Data Regimes

Romain Camilleri, Andrew Wagenmaker, Jamie Morgenstern, Lalit Jain, Kevin Jamieson

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In critical machine learning applications, ensuring fairness is essential to avoid perpetuating social inequities. In this work, we address the challenges of reducing bias and improving accuracy in data-scarce environments, where the cost of collecting labeled data prohibits the use of large, labeled datasets. In such settings, active learning promises to maximize marginal accuracy gains of small amounts of labeled data. However, existing applications of active learning for fairness fail to deliver on this, typically requiring large labeled datasets, or failing to ensure the desired fairness tolerance is met on the population distribution. To address such limitations, we introduce an innovative active learning framework that combines an exploration procedure inspired by posterior sampling with a fair classification subroutine. We demonstrate that this framework performs effectively in very data-scarce regimes, maximizing accuracy while satisfying fairness constraints with high probability. We evaluate our proposed approach using well-established real-world benchmark datasets and compare it against state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating its effectiveness in producing fair models, and improvement over existing methods.

Poster
Extremely Greedy Equivalence Search

Achille Nazaret, David Blei

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The goal of causal discovery is to learn a directed acyclic graph from data. One of the most well-known methods for this problem is Greedy Equivalence Search (GES). GES searches for the graph by incrementally and greedily adding or removing edges to maximize a model selection criterion. It has strong theoretical guarantees on infinite data but can fail in practice on finite data. In this paper, we first identify some of the causes of GES’s failure, finding that it can get blocked in local optima, especially in denser graphs. We then propose eXtremely Greedy Equivalent Search (XGES), which involves a new heuristic to improve the search strategy of GES while retaining its theoretical guarantees. In particular, XGES favors deleting edges early in the search over inserting edges, which reduces the possibility of the search ending in local optima. A further contribution of this work is an efficient algorithmic formulation of XGES (and GES). We benchmark XGES on simulated datasets with known ground truth. We find that XGES consistently outperforms GES in recovering the correct graphs, and it is 10 times faster.

Poster
Exploring High-dimensional Search Space via Voronoi Graph Traversing

Aidong Zhao, Xuyang Zhao, Tianchen Gu, Zhaori Bi, Xinwei Sun, Changhao Yan, Fan Yang, Dian Zhou, Xuan Zeng

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Bayesian optimization (BO) is a well-established methodology for optimizing costly black-box functions. However, the sparse observations in the high-dimensional search space pose challenges in constructing reliable Gaussian Process (GP) models, which leads to blind exploration of the search space. We propose a novel Voronoi Graph Traversing (VGT) algorithm to extend BO to ultra high-dimensional problems. VGT employs a Voronoi diagram to mesh the design space and transform it into an undirected Voronoi graph. VGT explores the search space by iteratively performing path selection, promising cell sampling, and graph expansion operations. We introduce a UCB-based global traversal strategy to select the path towards promising Voronoi cells. Then we perform local BO within the promising cell and train local GP with a neighboring subset. The intrinsic geometric boundaries and adjacency of the Voronoi graph assist in fine-tuning the trajectory of local BO sampling. We also present a subspace enhancement approach for the intrinsic low-dimensional problems. Experimental results, including both synthetic benchmarks and real-world applications, demonstrate the proposed approach’s state-of-the-art performance for tackling ultra high-dimensional problems ranging from hundreds to one thousand dimensions.

Poster
Evaluating Bayesian deep learning for radio galaxy classification

Devina Mohan, Anna M. M. Scaife

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The radio astronomy community is rapidly adopting deep learning techniques to deal with the huge data volumes expected from the next generation of radio observatories. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a principled way to model uncertainty in the predictions made by such deep learning models and will play an important role in extracting well-calibrated uncertainty estimates on their outputs. In this work, we evaluate the performance of different BNNs against the following criteria: predictive performance, uncertainty calibration and distribution-shift detection for the radio galaxy classification problem.

Poster
Equilibrium Computation in Multidimensional Congestion Games: CSP and Learning Dynamics Approaches

Mohammad T. Irfan, Hau Chan, Jared Soundy

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We present algorithms of two flavors{—}one rooted in constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs) and the other in learning dynamics{—}to compute pure-strategy Nash equilibrium (PSNE) in k-dimensional congestion games (k-DCGs) and their variants. The two algorithmic approaches are driven by whether or not a PSNE is guaranteed to exist. We first show that deciding the existence of a PSNE in a k-DCG is NP-complete even when players have binary and unit demand vectors. For general cost functions (potentially non-monotonic), we devise a new CSP-inspired algorithmic framework for PSNE computation, leading to algorithms that run in polynomial time under certain assumptions while offering exponential savings over standard CSP algorithms. We further refine these algorithms for variants of k-DCGs. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of this new CSP framework for hard, non-monotonic k-DCGs. We then provide learning dynamics-based PSNE computation algorithms for linear and exponential cost functions. These algorithms run in polynomial time under certain assumptions. For general cost, we give a learning dynamics algorithm for an (\ensuremath{(\alpha, \beta)})-approximate PSNE (for certain \ensuremath{\alpha} and \ensuremath{\beta}). Lastly, we also devise polynomial-time algorithms for structured demands and cost functions.

Poster
EntProp: High Entropy Propagation for Improving Accuracy and Robustness

Shohei Enomoto

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Deep neural networks (DNNs) struggle to generalize to out-of-distribution domains that are different from those in training despite their impressive performance. In practical applications, it is important for DNNs to have both high standard accuracy and robustness against out-of-distribution domains. One technique that achieves both of these improvements is disentangled learning with mixture distribution via auxiliary batch normalization layers (ABNs). This technique treats clean and transformed samples as different domains, allowing a DNN to learn better features from mixed domains. However, if we distinguish the domains of the samples based on entropy, we find that some transformed samples are drawn from the same domain as clean samples, and these samples are not completely different domains. To generate samples drawn from a completely different domain than clean samples, we hypothesize that transforming clean high-entropy samples to further increase the entropy generates out-of-distribution samples that are much further away from the in-distribution domain. On the basis of the hypothesis, we propose high entropy propagation (EntProp), which feeds high-entropy samples to the network that uses ABNs. We introduce two techniques, data augmentation and free adversarial training, that increase entropy and bring the sample further away from the in-distribution domain. These techniques do not require additional training costs. Our experimental results show that EntProp achieves higher standard accuracy and robustness with a lower training cost than the baseline methods. In particular, EntProp is highly effective at training on small datasets.

Poster
Enhancing Patient Recruitment Response in Clinical Trials: an Adaptive Learning Framework

Xinying Fang, Shouhao Zhou

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Patient recruitment remains a key challenge in contemporary clinical trials, often leading to trial failures due to insufficient recruitment rates. To address this issue, we introduce a novel adaptive learning framework that integrates machine learning methods to facilitate evidence-informed recruitment. Through dynamic testing, predictive learning, and adaptive pruning of recruitment plans, the proposed framework ensures superiority over the conventional random assignment approach. We discuss the practical considerations for implementing this framework and conduct a simulation study to assess the overall response rates and chances of improvement. The findings suggest that the proposed approach can substantially enhance patient recruitment efficiency. By systematically optimizing recruitment plan allocation, this adaptive learning framework shows promise in addressing recruitment challenges across broad clinical research settings, potentially transforming how patient recruitment is managed in clinical trials.

Poster
End-to-end Conditional Robust Optimization

Abhilash Reddy Chenreddy, Erick Delage

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The field of Contextual Optimization (CO) integrates machine learning and optimization to solve decision making problems under uncertainty. Recently, a risk sensitive variant of CO, known as Conditional Robust Optimization (CRO), combines uncertainty quantification with robust optimization in order to promote safety and reliability in high stake applications. Exploiting modern differentiable optimization methods, we propose a novel end-to-end approach to train a CRO model in a way that accounts for both the empirical risk of the prescribed decisions and the quality of conditional coverage of the contextual uncertainty set that supports them. While guarantees of success for the latter objective are impossible to obtain from the point of view of conformal prediction theory, high quality conditional coverage is achieved empirically by ingeniously employing a logistic regression differentiable layer within the calculation of coverage quality in our training loss.We show that the proposed training algorithms produce decisions that outperform the traditional estimate then optimize approaches.

Poster