UAI 2021 Papers

Causal discovery from data affected by unobserved variables is an important but difficult problem to solve. The effects that unobserved variables have on the relationships between observed variables are more complex in nonlinear cases than in linear cases. In this study, we focus on causal additive models in the presence of unobserved variables. Causal additive models exhibit structural equations that are additive in the variables and error terms. We take into account the presence of not only unobserved common causes but also unobserved intermediate variables. Our theoretical results show that, when the causal relationships are nonlinear and there are unobserved variables, it is not possible to identify all the causal relationships between observed variables through regression and independence tests. However, our theoretical results also show that it is possible to avoid incorrect inferences. We propose a method to identify all the causal relationships that are theoretically possible to identify without being biased by unobserved variables. The empirical results using artificial data and simulated functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data show that our method effectively infers causal structures in the presence of unobserved variables.

We propose a bandit algorithm that explores purely by randomizing its past observations. In particular, the sufficient optimism in the mean reward estimates is achieved by exploiting the variance in the past observed rewards. We name the algorithm Capitalizing On Rewards (CORe). The algorithm is general and can be easily applied to different bandit settings. The main benefit of CORe is that its exploration is fully data-dependent. It does not rely on any external noise and adapts to different problems without parameter tuning. We derive a $\tilde O(d\sqrt{n\log K})$ gap-free bound on the n-round regret of CORe in a stochastic linear bandit, where d is the number of features and K is the number of arms. Extensive empirical evaluation on multiple synthetic and real-world problems demonstrates the effectiveness of CORe.

Influence maximization is the problem of finding a small subset of nodes in a network that can maximize the diffusion of information. Recently, it has also found application in HIV prevention, substance abuse prevention, micro-finance adoption, etc., where the goal is to identify the set of peer leaders in a real-world physical social network who can disseminate information to a large group of people. Unlike online social networks, real-world networks are not completely known, and collecting information about the network is costly as it involves surveying multiple people. In this paper, we focus on this problem of network discovery for influence maximization. The existing work in this direction proposes a reinforcement learning framework. As the environment interactions in real-world settings are costly, so it is important for the reinforcement learning algorithms to have minimum possible environment interactions, i.e, to be sample efficient. In this work, we propose CLAIM - Curriculum LeArning Policy for Influence Maximization to improve the sample efficiency of RL methods. We conduct experiments on real-world datasets and show that our approach can outperform the current best approach.

The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a useful risk measure in fields such as machine learning, finance, insurance, energy, etc. When measuring very extreme risk, the commonly used CVaR estimation method of sample averaging does not work well due to limited data above the value-at-risk (VaR), the quantile corresponding to the CVaR level. To mitigate this problem, the CVaR can be estimated by extrapolating above a lower threshold than the VaR using a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), which is often referred to as the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach. This method often requires a very high threshold to fit well, leading to high variance in estimation, and can induce significant bias if the threshold is chosen too low. In this paper, we address this bias-variance tradeoff by deriving a new expression for the GPD approximation error of the CVaR, a bias term induced by the choice of threshold, as well as a bias correction method for the estimated GPD parameters. This leads to the derivation of a new CVaR estimator that is asymptotically unbiased and less sensitive to lower thresholds being used. An asymptotic confidence interval for the estimator is also constructed. In a practical setting, we show through experiments that our estimator provides a significant performance improvement compared with competing CVaR estimators in finite samples from heavy-tailed distributions.

Tucker decomposition is a classical tensor factorization model. Compared with the most widely used CP decomposition, the Tucker model is much more flexible and interpretable in that it accounts for every possible (multiplicative) interaction between the factors in different modes. However, this also brings in the risk of overfitting and computational challenges, especially in the case of fast streaming data. To address these issues, we develop BASS-Tucker, a BAyesian Streaming Sparse Tucker decomposition method. We place a spike-and-slab prior over the core tensor elements to automatically select meaningful factor interactions so as to prevent overfitting and to further enhance the interpretability. To enable efficient streaming factorization, we use conditional moment matching and Delta’s method to develop one-shot incremental update of the latent factors and core tensor upon receiving each streaming batch. Thereby, we avoid processing the data points one by one as in the standard assumed density filtering, which needs to update the core tensor for each point and is quite inefficient. We explicitly introduce and update a sparse prior approximation in the running posterior to fulfill effective sparse estimation in the streaming inference. We show the advantage of BASS-Tucker in several real-world applications.

Most existing black-box optimization methods assume that all variables in the system being optimized have equal cost and can change freely at each iteration. However, in many real-world systems, inputs are passed through a sequence of different operations or modules, making variables in earlier stages of processing more costly to update. Such structure induces a dynamic cost from switching variables in the early parts of a data processing pipeline. In this work, we propose a new algorithm for switch-cost-aware optimization called Lazy Modular Bayesian Optimization (LaMBO). This method efficiently identifies the global optimum while minimizing cost through a passive change of variables in early modules. The method is theoretically grounded which achieves a vanishing regret regularized with switching cost. We apply LaMBO to multiple synthetic functions and a three-stage image segmentation pipeline used in a neuroimaging task, where we obtain promising improvements over existing cost-aware Bayesian optimization algorithms. Our results demonstrate that LaMBO is an effective strategy for black-box optimization capable of minimizing switching costs.

Given the pressing need for assuring algorithmic transparency, Explainable AI (XAI) has emerged as one of the key areas of AI research. In this paper, we develop a novel Bayesian extension to the LIME framework, one of the most widely used approaches in XAI – which we call BayLIME. Compared to LIME, BayLIME exploits prior knowledge and Bayesian reasoning to improve both the consistency in repeated explanations of a single prediction and the robustness to kernel settings. BayLIME also exhibits better explanation fidelity than the state-of-the-art (LIME, SHAP and GradCAM) by its ability to integrate prior knowledge from, e.g., a variety of other XAI techniques, as well as verification and validation (V&V) methods. We demonstrate the desirable properties of BayLIME through both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments.

We study linear contextual bandits with access to a large, confounded, offline dataset that was sampled from some fixed policy. We show that this problem is closely related to a variant of the bandit problem with side information. We construct a linear bandit algorithm that takes advantage of the projected information, and prove regret bounds. Our results demonstrate the ability to take advantage of confounded offline data. Particularly, we prove regret bounds that improve current bounds by a factor related to the visible dimensionality of the contexts in the data. Our results indicate that confounded offline data can significantly improve online learning algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate various characteristics of our approach through synthetic simulations.

Batch Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a successful technique for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. Asynchronous BO can reduce wallclock time by starting a new evaluation as soon as another finishes, thus maximising resource utilisation. To maximise resource allocation, we develop a novel asynchronous BO method, AEGiS (Asynchronous $\epsilon$-Greedy Global Search) that combines greedy search, exploiting the surrogate’s mean prediction, with Thompson sampling and random selection from the approximate Pareto set describing the trade-off between exploitation (surrogate mean prediction) and exploration (surrogate posterior variance). We demonstrate empirically the efficacy of AEGiS on synthetic benchmark problems, meta-surrogate hyperparameter tuning problems and real-world problems, showing that AEGiS generally outperforms existing methods for asynchronous BO. When a single worker is available performance is no worse than BO using expected improvement.

We study a new optimization problem called

The graphical structure of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) encodes the conditional independence (CI) relations that hold in the modeled distribution. Graph algorithms, such as d-separation, use this structure to infer additional conditional independencies, and to query whether a specific CI holds in the distribution. The premise of all current systems-of-inference for deriving CIs in PGMs, is that the set of CIs used for the construction of the PGM hold exactly. In practice, algorithms for extracting the structure of PGMs from data, discover approximate CIs that do not hold exactly in the distribution. In this paper, we ask how the error in this set propagates to the inferred CIs read off the graphical structure. More precisely, what guarantee can we provide on the inferred CI when the set of CIs that entailed it hold only approximately? It has recently been shown that in the general case, no such guarantee can be provided. We prove that such a guarantee exists for the set of CIs inferred in directed graphical models, making the d-separation algorithm a sound and complete system for inferring approximate CIs. We also prove an approximation guarantee for independence relations derived from marginal CIs.

We present a general framework for kernel hypothesis testing on distributions of sets of individual examples. Sets may represent many common data sources such as groups of observations in time series, collections of words in text or a batch of images of a given phenomenon. This observation pattern, however, differs from the common assumptions required for hypothesis testing: each set differs in size, may have differing levels of noise, and also may incorporate nuisance variability, irrelevant for the analysis of the phenomenon of interest; all features that bias test decisions if not accounted for. In this paper, we propose to interpret sets as independent samples from a collection of latent probability distributions, and introduce kernel two-sample and independence tests in this latent space of distributions. We prove the consistency of these tests and observe them to outperform in a wide range of synthetic and real data experiments, where previously heuristics were needed for feature extraction and testing.

On playing video games, different players usually have their own playstyles. Recently, there have been great improvements for the video game AIs on the playing strength. However, past researches for analyzing the behaviors of players still used heuristic rules or the behavior features with the game-environment support, thus being exhausted for the developers to define the features of discriminating various playstyles. In this paper, we propose the first metric for video game playstyles directly from the game observations and actions, without any prior specification on the playstyle in the target game. Our proposed method is built upon a novel scheme of learning discrete representations that can map game observations into latent discrete states, such that playstyles can be exhibited from these discrete states. Namely, we measure the playstyle distance based on game observations aligned to the same states. We demonstrate high playstyle accuracy of our metric in experiments on some video game platforms, including TORCS, RGSK, and seven Atari games, and for different agents including rule-based AI bots, learning-based AI bots, and human players.

Max-Pooling operations are a core component of deep learning architectures. In particular, they are part of most convolutional architectures used in machine vision, since pooling is a natural approach to pattern detection problems. However, these architectures are not well understood from a theoretical perspective. For example, we do not understand when they can be globally optimized, and what is the effect of over-parameterization on generalization. Here we perform a theoretical analysis of a convolutional max-pooling architecture, proving that it can be globally optimized, and can generalize well even for highly over-parameterized models. Our analysis focuses on a data generating distribution inspired by pattern detection problem, where a “discriminative” pattern needs to be detected among “spurious” patterns. We empirically validate that CNNs significantly outperform fully connected networks in our setting, as predicted by our theoretical results.

The goal of fairness in classification is to learn a classifier that does not discriminate against groups of individuals based on sensitive attributes, such as race and gender. One approach to designing fair algorithms is to use relaxations of fairness notions as regularization terms or in a constrained optimization problem. We observe that the hyperbolic tangent function can approximate the indicator function. We leverage this property to define a differentiable relaxation that approximates fairness notions provably better than existing relaxations. In addition, we propose a model-agnostic multi-objective architecture that can simultaneously optimize for multiple fairness notions and multiple sensitive attributes and supports all statistical parity-based notions of fairness. We use our relaxation with the multi-objective architecture to learn fair classifiers. Experiments on public datasets show that our method suffers a significantly lower loss of accuracy than current debiasing algorithms relative to the unconstrained model.

Online algorithms for detecting changepoints, or abrupt shifts in the behavior of a time series, are often deployed with limited resources, e.g., to edge computing settings such as mobile phones or industrial sensors. In these scenarios it may be beneficial to trade the cost of collecting an environmental measurement against the quality or “fidelity” of this measurement and how the measurement affects changepoint estimation. For instance, one might decide between inertial measurements or GPS to determine changepoints for motion. A Bayesian approach to changepoint detection is particularly appealing because we can represent our posterior uncertainty about changepoints and make active, cost-sensitive decisions about data fidelity to reduce this posterior uncertainty. Moreover, the total cost could be dramatically lowered through active fidelity switching, while remaining robust to changes in data distribution. We propose a multi-fidelity approach that makes cost-sensitive decisions about which data fidelity to collect based on maximizing information gain with respect to changepoints. We evaluate this framework on synthetic, video, and audio data and show that this information-based approach results in accurate predictions while reducing total cost.

Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) reinforcement learning is a powerful learning paradigm which seeks to maximize return under entropy regularization. However, action entropy does not necessarily coincide with state entropy, e.g., when multiple actions produce the same transition. Instead, we propose to maximize the transition entropy, i.e., the entropy of next states. We show that transition entropy can be described by two terms; namely, model-dependent transition entropy and

One of the core assumptions in causal discovery is the faithfulness assumption—i.e. assuming that independencies found in the data are due to separations in the true causal graph. This assumption can, however, be violated in many ways, including xor connections, deterministic functions or cancelling paths. In this work, we propose a weaker assumption that we call 2-adjacency faithfulness. In contrast to adjacency faithfulness, which assumes that there is no conditional independence between each pair of variables that are connected in the causal graph, we only require no conditional independence between a node and a subset of its Markov blanket that can contain up to two nodes. Equivalently, we adapt orientation faithfulness to this setting. We further propose a sound orientation rule for causal discovery that applies under weaker assumptions. As a proof of concept, we derive a modified Grow and Shrink algorithm that recovers the Markov blanket of a target node and prove its correctness under strictly weaker assumptions than the standard faithfulness assumption.

Panel data involving longitudinal measurements of the same set of participants or entities taken over multiple time points is common in studies to understand early childhood development and disease modeling. Deep hybrid models that marry the predictive power of neural networks with physical simulators such as differential equations, are starting to drive advances in such applications. The task of modeling not just the observations/data but the hidden dynamics that are captured by the measurements poses interesting statistical/computational questions. We propose a probabilistic model called ME-NODE to incorporate (fixed + random) mixed effects for analyzing such panel data. We show that our model can be derived using smooth approximations of SDEs provided by the Wong-Zakai theorem. We then derive Evidence Based Lower Bounds for ME-NODE, and develop (efficient) training algorithms using MC based sampling methods and numerical ODE solvers. We demonstrate ME-NODE’s utility on tasks spanning the spectrum from simulations and toy datasets to real longitudinal 3D imaging data from an Alzheimer’s disease (AD) study, and study the performance for accuracy of reconstruction for interpolation, uncertainty estimates and personalized prediction.