NeurIPS 2026 Papers

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision breakdown

6,437papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    991.5%
  • Spotlight
    2403.7%
  • Poster
    6,09894.7%

Browse all papers

World Models as Adversaries: Multi-Agent Self-Play Fine-Tuning for Robust Motion Planning

Tong Nie, Yuewen Mei, Junlin He, Yihong Tang, Jian Sun, Wei Ma

Expand abstract

Robust motion planning in dense traffic requires autonomous vehicles to interact in rare and safety-critical scenarios that are underrepresented in naturalistic driving data. Although adversarial training offers a feasible solution, existing methods often rely on external scenario generators, heuristic perturbations, or simulator-heavy rollouts, which makes them difficult to integrate with modern autoregressive planners. Here, we cast adversarially robust planner learning as a constrained min-max game and propose Adversarial World Modeling (AWM), a theoretically grounded multi-agent self-play fine-tuning framework. Since solving the exact game is intractable, AWM introduces a principled decoupled solver. In the inner minimization, the planner's predictive world model is converted into a role-conditioned adversary that learns sparse, scene-adaptive attack coalitions via counterfactual credit assignment. In the outer maximization, the ego planner optimizes a regret-aware robust best response against the frozen AWM, utilizing tail-risk weighting and reference-anchored trust regions to improve hard-case recovery while preserving nominal driving behavior. Experiments on the nuPlan and InterPlan benchmarks demonstrate that our method generates transferable adversarial interactions and yields a robust planner that achieves competitive closed-loop performance in both nominal and highly interactive long-tail scenarios. Theoretical analysis justifies the decoupled solver and the main optimization components.

Poster
World Action Verifier: Self-Improving World Models via Forward-Inverse Asymmetry

Yuejiang Liu, Fan Feng, Lingjing Kong, Weifeng Lu, Jinzhou Tang, Kun Zhang, Kevin Murphy, Chelsea Finn, Yilun Du

Expand abstract

General-purpose world models promise scalable policy evaluation, optimization, and planning, yet achieving the required level of robustness remains challenging. Unlike policy learning which primarily focuses on optimal actions, a world model needs to be reliable over a vast space of suboptimal actions, which are often underrepresented in action-labeled robot interactions. To address this challenge, we propose World Action Verifier (WAV), a framework that enables world models to identify their own prediction errors and self-improve. The key idea is to decompose action-conditioned state prediction into two independently verifiable factors: state plausibility and action reachability. We show that verifying these factors is significantly more tractable than direct forward prediction due to two underlying asymmetries: the broader availability of action-free data and the lower dimensionality of action-relevant features. Leveraging these asymmetries, we augment a world model with (i) a diverse subgoal generator obtained from video corpora and (ii) a sparse inverse model that infers actions from a subset of state features. By enforcing cycle consistency among proposed subgoals, inferred actions, and forward rollouts, WAV provides an effective verification mechanism in under-explored regimes, where existing methods often fail. Across nine tasks spanning MiniGrid, RoboMimic, and ManiSkill, our method achieves 2$\times$ higher sample efficiency while improving downstream policy performance by over 22\%.

Poster
Workspace-Bench 1.0: Benchmarking AI Agents on Workspace Tasks with Large-Scale File Dependencies

Tang Zirui, Xuanhe Zhou, Yumou Liu, Linchun Li, Wang Weizheng, Hongzhang Huang, JUN ZHOU, Jiachen Song, Shaoli Yu, Wang Jinqi, Zihang Zhou, Hongyi Zhou, YutingLv, Jinyang Li, Jiashuo Liu, Ruoyu Chen, Chunwei Liu, Guoliang Li, Jihua Kang, Fan Wu

Expand abstract

Workspace learning requires AI agents to identify, reason over, exploit, and update explicit and implicit dependencies among heterogeneous files in a worker's workspace, enabling them to complete both routine and advanced tasks effectively. Despite its importance, existing relevant benchmarks largely evaluate agents on pre-specified or synthesized files with limited real-world dependencies, leaving workspace-level evaluation underexplored. To this end, we introduce Workspace-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating AI agents on Workspace-Learning involving Large-Scale File Dependencies. We construct realistic workspaces with 5 worker profiles, 74 file types, 20,476 files (up to 20GB) and curate 388 tasks, each with its own file dependency graph, evaluated across 7,399 total rubrics that require cross-file retrieval, contextual reasoning, and adaptive decision-making. We further provide Workspace-Bench-Lite, a 100-task subset that preserves the benchmark distribution while reducing evaluation costs by about 70%. We evaluate 4 popular agent harnesses and 7 foundation models. Experimental results show that current agents remain far from reliable workspace learning, where the best reaches only 68.7%, substantially below the human+tool result of 80.7%, and the average performance across agents is only 47.4%. More details please refer to https://workspace-bench.github.io.

Poster
Words That Make Language Models Perceive

Sophie L. Wang, Phillip Isola, Brian Cheung

Expand abstract

Large language models (LLMs) trained purely on text ostensibly lack any direct perceptual experience, yet their internal representations are implicitly shaped by multimodal regularities encoded in language. We test the hypothesis that explicit sensory prompting can surface this latent structure, bringing a text‑only LLM into closer representational alignment with specialist vision and audio encoders. When a _sensory prompt_ tells the model to 'see' or 'hear', it cues the model to resolve its next‑token predictions as if they were conditioned on latent visual or auditory evidence that is never actually supplied. Our findings reveal that lightweight prompt engineering can reliably activate modality‑appropriate representations in purely text‑trained LLMs.

Poster
Words Before Pixels: Selective Modality Routing for Vision-Language Model Unlearning

Laura Yao, Haochen Zhang, Jinhao Duan, Sijia Liu, Tianlong Chen

Expand abstract

Vision-language model (VLM) unlearning is often treated as an objective-design problem: given multimodal forget data, the goal is to optimize a loss that removes undesirable behavior while preserving retained capabilities. We argue that this view overlooks an equally important data-centric question: how should each forget example be represented before optimization? Existing methods typically keep image-conditioned failures in their original image-text form, implicitly assuming that pixels are the right route for unlearning whenever pixels appear in the input. We challenge this assumption by constructing modality-decomposed versions of VLM benchmarks, enabling controlled comparisons among image-only, text-only, and multimodal representations of the same examples. Our modality-mixing experiments show that, for many examples, textual renderings carry the actionable forget signal more directly than the image alone, while purely text-only unlearning can still weaken visual grounding when the target behavior depends on visual evidence. Motivated by this trade-off, we introduce ModRoute, a gradient-guided per-sample modality routing strategy that selectively converts high visual-pressure examples to text-only form while keeping the remaining examples multimodal. Notably, on VLGuard with LLaVA-1.5-7B, ModRoute has the strongest composite unlearning--utility score of $0.847$ at $\gamma=0.5$, a $2.5$% improvement over the best random-switching score and $\geq46$% better than pure multimodal or text unlearning. Overall, our results show that effective VLM unlearning depends not only on the objective, but also on the composition and per-sample modality routing of the unlearning data.

Poster
WordEval: Evaluating Word-Native Operation Fidelity in Document Editing

Jinyoung Park, Yupan Huang, Shimin Zhang, Jiayu Ding, Yilin Jia, Yuzhong Zhao, Tengchao Lv, Wenshan Wu, Shaohan Huang, Nan Yang, Xiangyang Zhou, Dongdong Zhang, Li Dong, Lei Cui, Sun Mao, Xun Wang, Tao Ge, Huitian Jiao, Si-Qing Chen, Changick Kim, Furu Wei

Expand abstract

Microsoft Word is a central environment for office automation, yet evaluating whether an agent has correctly edited a Word document remains difficult. Unlike plain text generation, Word editing changes a structured document object, where formatting, lists, fields, layout, and object properties may all be part of the requested effect. Existing evaluation protocols based on whole-document text similarity, rendered visual similarity, or LLM-as-a-judge scores cannot reliably determine whether the requested Word-native effect is realized as editable document state or whether relevant surrounding state is preserved. We introduce WordEval, a benchmark for evaluating Word-native document editing from natural-language instructions. Each case consists of an input .docx file and an editing instruction; the evaluator compares the agent’s output with a reference document using deterministic checks over Word-readable object properties. WordEval is constructed by design from planned editing units, rather than sampled from arbitrary documents: each unit specifies an input precondition, target object, operation, parameters, reference-generation procedure, and oracle specification. The current release contains 642 cases, including 546 atomic cases over 231 Word commands and 96 compositional cases instantiated from 27 composition templates. Its analysis layer covers 140 unique object-property pairs across 65 Word COM objects and 15 document subsystems. The compositional cases are linked to corresponding atomic cases for their component operations, allowing analyses of whether failures arise from individual operations or from combining multiple operations in one document. By combining controlled document construction, reference-based evaluation, and command-grounded deterministic oracles, WordEval provides a fine-grained testbed for measuring Word-native document automation.

Poster
Witness Overlap: Directional Provenance Inside Open-Weight Model Families

Siyuan Li, Haoxuan Zeng, Xin Luo, Fernando Jia, Florence Li, Zhengyang Geng, Zico Kolter, Tai Sing Lee, Tianqin Li

Expand abstract

Open-weight models are often released, fine-tuned, aligned, merged, and re-released, making provenance audits ask not only whether checkpoints are related, but also which checkpoint came first. Many existing model-provenance methods are designed for a base-known audit setting: given a victim or source model, they test whether a suspect model is related to it. Although these audits are framed as source-to-suspect tests, their underlying evidence is often symmetric, relying on representation similarity, weight similarity, behavioral fingerprints, or correlation statistics. Symmetric pairwise comparisons can detect relatedness, but they cannot by themselves orient A versus B. We therefore introduce a local geometric comparison: instead of comparing two checkpoints directly, we add a third same-family checkpoint as a witness and compare the geometry around A with the geometry around B. Direction is inferred by asking which candidate behaves more like a branching parent. Motivated by this idea, and by the empirically observed asymmetry between parent-anchored and child-anchored witness-overlap distributions, we propose Witness Overlap, a prompt-free, training-free white-box test for directional provenance. On 176 LLM checkpoints from 16 families, our one-witness test orients 95.3\% of parent–child decisions using Frobenius cosine. We further evaluate root identification, sibling discrimination, generalizations to VLM and diffusion families, and chain-structured ordering. The signal is robust to weight noise and sparse pruning, with a proposed SVD weight reduction variant showing greater robustness than Frobenius cosine.

Poster
Winning the Symmetry Lottery: Learning Invariance from Data Augmentations with Transformers

Eduardo Santos-Escriche, Valerie Engelmayer, Ya-Wei Eileen Lin, Stefanie Jegelka

Expand abstract

Training transformer-based architectures with data augmentation has become an increasingly popular approach for equivariant machine learning. Despite its empirical success, the interplay between the transformer architecture, invariance to different symmetries, and augmentation budgets remains underexplored. In this paper, we investigate the ability of a vanilla transformer to learn a wide range of symmetries through limited data augmentation. We identify that it performs strongly for common angle-preserving symmetries, while it struggles with non-angle-preserving ones. Within the angle-preserving family, we further find that base subgroups such as translation, rotation, and scale are learned more easily and accurately than compositional groups that combine them. Motivated by this observation, we perform a structural analysis of the trained models and identify interpretable mechanisms that induce invariance to each base angle-preserving symmetry. These findings support what we coin winning the *Symmetry Lottery*: the transformer architecture is aligned with learning mechanisms invariant to symmetries that happen to be prevalent in scientific domains.

Poster
Winning Lottery Tickets in Neural Networks via a Quantum-Inspired Classical Algorithm

Natsuto Isogai, Hayata Yamasaki, Sho Sonoda, Mio Murao

Expand abstract

Quantum machine learning (QML) aims to accelerate machine learning tasks by exploiting quantum computation. Previous work studied a QML algorithm for selecting sparse subnetworks from large shallow neural networks. Instead of directly solving an optimization problem over a large-scale network, this algorithm constructs a sparse subnetwork by sampling hidden nodes from an optimized probability distribution defined using the ridgelet transform. The quantum algorithm performs this sampling in time $O(D)$ in the data dimension $D$, whereas a naive classical implementation relies on handling exponentially many candidate nodes and hence takes $\exp[O(D)]$ time. In this work, we construct and analyze a quantum-inspired fully classical algorithm for the same sampling task. We show that our algorithm runs in time $O(\operatorname{poly}(D))$, thereby removing the exponential dependence on $D$ from the previous classical approach. Numerical simulations show that the proposed sampler achieves empirical risk comparable to exact sampling from the optimized distribution and substantially lower than sampling from the non-optimized uniform distribution, while also exhibiting exponentially improved runtime scaling compared with the conventional classical implementation. These successful dequantization results show that sparse subnetwork selection via optimized sampling can be achieved classically with polynomial data-dimension scaling on conventional computers without quantum hardware, providing an alternative to the existing quantum algorithm.

Poster
Winfree Oscillatory Neural Network

Jiawen Dai, Yue Song

Expand abstract

Oscillations and synchronization are widely believed to play a fundamental role in representation and computation. However, existing machine learning approaches based on synchronization dynamics have largely been confined to specialized settings such as object discovery, with limited evidence of scalability to standard vision benchmarks or logic reasoning tasks. We propose the \emph{Winfree Oscillatory Neural Network} (\emph{WONN}), a dynamical neural architecture based on generalized Winfree dynamics. \emph{WONN} evolves representations on the torus $(S^1)^d$ through structured oscillatory interactions, combining phase-based inductive biases with flexible and hierarchical interaction mechanisms instantiated as either fixed trigonometric mappings or learnable neural networks. We evaluate \emph{WONN} on image recognition and complex reasoning tasks, including CIFAR, ImageNet, Maze-hard, and Sudoku. Across these domains, \emph{WONN} achieves competitive or superior performance with strong parameter efficiency. \textbf{In particular, \emph{WONN} is, to our knowledge, the first synchronization-based oscillatory architecture to scale competitively to ImageNet-1K.} Furthermore, on Maze-hard, \emph{WONN} achieves \textbf{80.1\% accuracy using only 1\% of the parameters of prior state-of-the-art models}. These results suggest that structured oscillatory dynamics provide a scalable and parameter-efficient alternative to conventional neural architectures.

Spotlight
WildBox: A Dataset and Benchmark for Aerial Monocular 3D Detection of African Savanna Wildlife

Vandita Shukla, Kilian Meier, Lucie Laporte-Devylder, Camille R Saint-Jean, Jenna M Kline, Blair R Costelloe, Devis Tuia, Fabio Remondino, Benjamin Risse

Expand abstract

We introduce WildBox, a dataset and benchmark for monocular 3D detection of wildlife from drone video, comprising 237,505 3D bounding box annotations across seven African savanna species grouped into six benchmark classes. Annotations follow a KITTI/Omni3D-compatible format in a per-segment scale-normalised camera frame, with instance identities maintained across each segment. We evaluate two open-vocabulary monocular 3D architectures, OVMono3D-LIFT and DetAny3D, under zero-shot, ground-truth 2D box prompt, and supervised fine-tuning protocols. Open-vocabulary 2D foundation models provide usable zero-shot wildlife localisation (50.55 AP@50), but zero-shot 3D detection collapses to 0.00 AP across both architectures and every 2D-input condition tested, including ground-truth 2D box prompts—isolating the failure to the 3D stage. Fine-tuning on WildBox recovers performance to 8.68$\pm$0.47 AP-BEV@0.50 and 13.17$\pm$0.69 AP3D macro. Depth contributes 84\% of normalised Hausdorff distance after fine-tuning and over 99\% in zero-shot, identifying monocular aerial depth as the dominant open problem in this regime. A coarse-to-fine curriculum—pretraining on a merged zebra class before fine-tuning on the Grévy's/plains split—improves macro 3D performance with less total compute, with the largest gains on the two zebra subclasses. WildBox is released with video-level splits, evaluation code, and baseline checkpoints to enable progress in 3D wildlife perception from drone video.

Poster
WiREBench: Evaluating AI Agents' Capabilities in Reverse-Engineering Black-Box Applications in the Real World

Robin Rheem, Alexandra Maxwell, Mona Wang, Benjamin Mixon-Baca, Tianneng Shi, Jeffrey Knockel, Ali Aldakheel, Basel Alomair, Prateek Mittal, Dawn Song

Expand abstract

As frontier AI technologies dramatically improve their abilities to perform cybersecurity and reverse-engineering tasks, it is critical to rigorously and realistically track their capabilities in these domains. Increased agent capabilities in reverse-engineering will scale black-box vulnerability discovery, which will have dramatic implications on software security at large. In this work, we present WiREBench, a unique benchmark derived from popular real-world mobile applications, to measure agents' end-to-end vulnerability discovery and reverse-engineering capabilities. This benchmark, containing 22 protocols and 62 subtasks, evaluates agents abilities to identify and exploit historical vulnerabilities in binaries' proprietary network cryptography, via black-box reverse-engineering. To resolve these tasks, agents must chain together static binary analysis, understanding of applied cryptography, and complex tool use via dynamic instrumentation of mobile applications. Beyond benchmarking, we ran WiREBench against real-world applications, identifying and confirming 65 protocol vulnerabilities in applications used by hundreds of millions of users. These results demonstrate WiREBench's utility not just as a benchmark to assess current agent capabilities, but also as a pipeline for auditing cryptographic protocols and reverse-engineering in the real world.

Poster
Why Transformers Struggle with Distribution-Independent In-Context Learning

Omar Naim, Jerome Bolte, Nicholas Asher

Expand abstract

Transformer models can adapt to new tasks from input--output examples at inference time, a capability known as in-context learning (ICL). A common interpretation is that transformers implement implicit learning algorithms in their forward pass, using the context to infer the task and predict the query. We test this interpretation beyond the training distribution in controlled regression settings where classical estimators can generalize exactly. Transformers achieve near-perfect in-distribution ICL, but fail sharply under scale and support shifts, exhibiting a cliff-shaped collapse that is absent from least-squares and kernel baselines. This failure is robust across polynomial degrees and a range of training interventions. We identify two architectural mechanisms that help explain this behavior. First, final normalization imposes a readout-side scale constraint, causing predictions to saturate at fixed boundary values. Removing this constraint eliminates hard saturation, but does not restore reliable ICL under coefficient or label scaling. Second, attention can become a context bottleneck: under distribution shift, softmax attention may concentrate on a small part of the prompt, limiting the context-dependent adaptation required for ICL. These results show that strong in-distribution ICL does not imply distribution-independent ICL, and suggest caution when using ICL instead of explicit retraining or adaptation under distribution shift.

Poster
Why Transformer-Based Language Models Need Explicit Mechanisms of Cognitive Control

Suketu Patel, Hongbin Wang, Jin Fan

Expand abstract

We argue that cognitive control, the capacity to hold multiple divergent candidate responses and reconcile them through categorical inhibition rather than soft blending, should be a first-class computational object in transformer-based language models. We develop this claim at two levels. At the \emph{signal level}, interference paradigms reveal a characteristic failure signature: rather than adjudicating between competing responses, current transformer-based language models blend them, and accuracy collapses as interference scales. At the \emph{goal level}, sustained agency requires maintaining concurrent goals, enforcing priority during signal level adjudication, and revising the goal set as evidence accumulates about whether those goals are being successfully pursued; current systems approximate this only through external scaffolding. The architectural gap revealed at the signal level is the same gap that will block transformers from scaling to the kind of goal modulated and self regulating cognition that long-horizon autonomous agents require. We define concrete criteria for what counts as architecturally explicit cognitive control, show that neither the dominant training pipeline nor reasoning-token training implements it, and commit to predictions that distinguish our position from scale-based optimism.

Poster
Why Struggle with Continuous Latents? Interpretable Discrete Latent Reasoning via Rendered Compression

Shuochen Chang, Qingyang Liu, Shaobo Wang, Bingjie Gao, Qianli Ma, Haonan Zhao, Yibo Miao, Yulin Sun, Zelin Peng, Jiangtong Li, Li Niu

Expand abstract

Large language models achieve high reasoning performance via explicit chain-of-thought and reinforcement learning, but require long output sequences and extended inference time. Latent reasoning reduces this cost by shifting computation into a latent space; however, continuous latent methods are hard to train, suffering from unstable and uninterpretable reasoning trajectories. We argue these issues stem from a misalignment between continuous-space reasoning and discrete symbolic supervision, as continuous states lack explicit anchors for step-by-step alignment. To resolve this, we propose **Discrete Latent Reasoning (DLR)**, the first method that converts continuous latent states into explicit discrete tokens. Inspired by render-based compression, we render textual chains of thought into images, extract visual features, and construct a discrete latent vocabulary via clustering-based fine-tuning. Expanding the vocabulary and output head enables standard autoregressive modeling over both natural language and latent tokens, supporting pretraining alignment, SFT, and RL. Experiments on five reasoning benchmarks and two model series (Qwen3-VL and LLaMA-3) confirm that **DLR** outperforms prior latent reasoning baselines with up to **20$\times$ compression**. Furthermore, the learned latent trajectories retain an interpretable semantic structure. Overall, discrete latent tokens provide a controllable and interpretable basis for efficient latent reasoning.

Poster
Why Routers Freeze: Infinite Width Learning Dynamics for Mixture of Experts

Anish Dhir, Volkan Cevher, Leena Chennuru Vankadara

Expand abstract

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures are central to large-scale deep learning, relying on sparse execution and expert specialisation. Despite their success, their large-scale training dynamics remain poorly understood, and training is often unstable. While scaling limits such as infinite-width theory have clarified the behavior of dense models, the scaling behavior of MoEs remains largely unexplored. To this end, we derive the infinite-width limits of MoE architectures under fixed number of experts with both soft and Top-$K$ routing, trained with SGD and Adam, using Tensor Programs. Our results show that under the Standard Parameterisation (SP), router updates freeze after one step of training in both soft and Top-$K$ routing MoEs. This provides, at least in part, a principled explanation for the widespread use of auxiliary losses such as load-balancing or $z$-losses in MoE training. In dense networks, Maximal Update heuristics allow for stable and non-vanishing feature updates. However, in MoEs the Maximal Update heuristic with soft-routing and softmax gating causes the experts to collapse to the same distribution and router gradients to vanish. While sigmoid allows non-trivial router evolution, they still fail to prevent expert collapse. Thus fixed expert soft-routing MoEs do not admit a parameterisation that simultaneously ensures stability, feature learning, and expert specialisation in the infinite-width limit. We then show that, beyond computational efficiency, Top-\(K\) also acts as a symmetry breaking mechanism allowing for both feature learning and specialisation. We empirically validate these predictions, observing close agreement between finite-width training dynamics and the predicted scaling behaviour.

Poster
Why Pass@k Optimization Can Degrade Pass@1: Prompt Interference in LLM Post-Training

Anas Barakat, Souradip Chakraborty, Khushbu Pahwa, Amrit Singh Bedi

Expand abstract

Pass@$k$ is a widely used performance metric for verifiable large language model tasks, including mathematical reasoning, code generation, and short-answer reasoning. It defines success if any of $k$ independently sampled solutions passes a verifier. This multi-sample inference metric has motivated inference-aware fine-tuning methods that directly optimize pass@$k$. However, prior work reports a recurring trade-off: pass@$k$ improves while pass@1 degrades under such methods. This trade-off is practically important because pass@1 often remains a hard operational constraint due to latency and cost budgets, imperfect verifier coverage, and the need for a reliable single-shot fallback. We study the origin of this trade-off and provide a theoretical characterization of when pass@$k$ policy optimization can reduce pass@1 through gradient conflict induced by prompt interference. We show that pass@$k$ policy gradients can conflict with pass@1 gradients because pass@$k$ optimization implicitly reweights prompts toward low-success prompts; when these prompts are what we term \emph{negatively interfering}, their upweighting can rotate the pass@k update direction away from the pass@1 direction. We illustrate our theoretical findings with large language model experiments on verifiable mathematical reasoning and coding tasks.

Poster
Why Invariance is Not Enough for Biomedical Domain Generalization and How to Fix It

Sebastian Diaz, Polina Golland, Elfar Adalsteinsson, Neel Dey

Expand abstract

We present MaskGen, a theoretically grounded and deliberately simple approach for domain generalization in 3D biomedical image segmentation. Modern segmentation models degrade sharply under shifts in modality, disease severity, clinical sites, and more, limiting their reliable adoption. Existing generalization methods address this using extreme augmentations, hand-engineered domain statistics mixing, or architectural redesigns that add significant implementation overhead while yielding inconsistent performance across biomedical settings. MaskGen instead presents a principled learning strategy with marginal overhead that utilizes both source-domain image intensities and domain-stable foundation model representations to train robust segmentation models. As a result, MaskGen achieves strong gains in both fully supervised and few-shot segmentation across broad clinical shifts in biomedical studies. Unlike prior approaches, MaskGen is architecture- and loss-agnostic, compatible with standard augmentation pipelines, easy to implement, and tackles arbitrary anatomical regions.

Poster
Why Heavy-Tailed Weights Predict Model Quality

Joseph Wilson, Chris van der Heide, Liam Hodgkinson, Zhichao Wang, Fred Roosta, Michael Mahoney

Expand abstract

A solid understanding of the predictive success of deep neural networks (DNNs) remains elusive. For example, while many data-dependent metrics exist that seek to predict model quality of DNNs, these metrics may be expensive to compute for large datasets and/or may be impossible to compute when training datasets are not released. A practical and effective predictor of model quality involves analyzing DNN weight matrices, as it is known that a heavy-tailed spectral distribution often correlates with strong model quality. As such metrics lack a rigorous statistical derivation, in this work we aim to understand why they perform well, by employing a probabilistic framework to derive the marginal likelihood for the trained weights of a DNN. Across large-scale convolutional DNNs and LLMs, we find that this marginal likelihood predicts model quality. To understand the role heavy-tailed spectra play in predictive performance, we derive the limiting log-marginal likelihood for spectra that follow the heavy-tailed High-Temperature Marchenko-Pastur (HTMP) distribution. We show that this limiting quantity is convex in a *heaviness* parameter, and we derive an optimal *heaviness* that empirically predicts over-fitting for large-scale DNNs during training.

Poster
Why Do Time Series Models Need Long Context Windows?

Luca Butera, Giovanni De Felice, Andrea Cini, Cesare Alippi

Expand abstract

The effectiveness of modern deep learning models in forecasting *groups of time series* is often attributed to their ability to capture (long-range) dependencies across long observation windows. In this paper, we show that this forecasting task involves two objectives: (i) *generative process identification* (GPI), i.e., inferring the specific process generating the input sequence, and (ii) *conditional forecasting* (CF), i.e., predicting future values given input observations. From this perspective, optimal predictions can be interpreted as an average over plausible data-generating processes, weighted by their likelihood given the input window. This suggests a different explanation for the benefits of long context windows: they reduce the uncertainty about which specific process is generating the input time series during operation. We prove that even for processes with memory length $P$, an input window size strictly larger than $P$ is *necessary* to achieve the minimum attainable error. Finally, we show how decoupling GPI and CF can improve computational scalability without compromising accuracy. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data validate our insights and their relevance for designing forecasting architectures.

Poster