NeurIPS 2026 Papers

Agentic forecasting is important for decision-making in dynamic environments, but it remains challenging because agents must reason from incomplete, time-limited evidence and produce calibrated probabilities before outcomes are resolved. Memory provides a natural mechanism for transferring experience from resolved forecasts to future prediction tasks. However, existing agent-memory methods are not tailored to forecasting, as they typically store past interactions, reflections, or factual associations without explicitly representing reusable predictive factors or calibration knowledge. We propose ForecastCompass(FoCo), an adaptive factor-based memory framework for agentic forecasting. FoCo organizes forecasting experience with a hierarchical forecasting-task taxonomy, enabling retrieval task-relevant forecasting knowledge. It maintains two complementary memory components: factor memory, which captures reusable predictive dimensions, and reasoning memory, which encodes probability updating, uncertainty handling, and calibration principles. Using retrospective analyses as learning signals, FoCo iteratively revises memory through a verbalized memory-revision procedure, enabling the agent to accumulate transferable forecasting knowledge over time. Experiments on Prophet Arena and FutureX with GPT-5-mini and Gemini-2.5-Flash show that FoCo improves both probabilistic accuracy and calibration.

LLM benchmarks are usually consumed as scalar leaderboards, where adjacent ranks are read as adjacent capability differences. We argue that this display should be complemented rather than simply trusted or discarded: benchmark scores are useful summaries, but a sorted score table can overstate which model pairs are actually distinguishable. This limitation is especially clear for accuracy- and success-rate leaderboards, whose averages hide task-level structure, and it also appears in pairwise systems such as Elo-style ratings when pairwise evidence is compressed into a total order. We propose LLM tier ranking as a task-level reporting framework for benchmarks. Given benchmark outputs, we construct pairwise wins, losses, and ties between models on each task and aggregate them into ordered tiers using Selective Preference Aggregation (SPA). Cross-tier comparisons are reported only when supported by sufficient task-level agreement; models in the same tier are left unresolved, not declared equal. Across AIME 2025, $\tau$-bench airline, xbench DeepSearch, GDPVal, SWE-Bench Verified, and Chatbot Arena, tier ranking often preserves useful broad capability classes while abstaining from unsupported fine-grained distinctions among frontier models. In Chatbot Arena perturbation studies, tier outputs are more stable than Elo-style total orders, expressing weaker evidence through later tier separation rather than rank reshuffling. We recommend reporting tiered leaderboards, solution paths, top-tier size, singleton-winner thresholds, and pairwise resolution statistics alongside scalar scores.

While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong visual reasoning abilities, serving a large model for every query is computationally expensive. MLLM cascades mitigate this cost by first querying a weak but cheaper model and deferring to a strong model when the weak model's output is unconfident. However, since the weak model's confidence directly controls compute allocation, these systems expose a new attack surface: an adversary can manipulate confidence so that their queries are consistently deferred to the strong model. Motivated by this vulnerability, we introduce the Forced Deferral Attack (FDA), an adversarial image attack that lowers the weak model's confidence and causes cascades to route queries to the strong model. FDA learns a universal border trigger by optimizing a temperature-flattened objective. This objective pushes the weak model's token distribution on triggered inputs toward less concentrated targets constructed from its clean responses. Across datasets, model families, and deferral metrics, FDA consistently increases strong-model routing while outperforming image-perturbation and prompt-injection baselines. These results show that MLLM cascades are vulnerable to attacks that manipulate compute allocation, forcing unintended strong-model usage without directly targeting answer correctness.

Contact-rich manipulation requires precise control and complex physical interaction with the environment, posing significant challenges for robot policy learning. Vision-only policies struggle with such tasks, as contact states and force feedback are difficult to infer from vision alone. Existing methods mitigate this issue by incorporating force or tactile sensing. However, they often treat these signals as auxiliary observations rather than using them to model future interaction dynamics, leading to inefficient modality utilization and limited generalization. To address this, we propose ForceLDM, a force-aware latent dynamics model that enables the policy to anticipate future contact and motion dynamics in latent space and use them to guide action generation. Rather than predicting future observations in pixel space, which often requires large amounts of data and risk overfitting irrelevant details, ForceLDM learns a compact task-relevant representation through knowledge distillation. Specifically, a teacher network with privileged access to future force/torque and optical flow signals extracts future dynamic features, which are then distilled into a student network trained only on current observations. This enables the student to reason about upcoming contacts and physical dynamics at deployment without relying on future sensory inputs. To improve robustness and generalization, we further introduce a curriculum-based progressive noise injection strategy to mitigate over-reliance on future features. Experiments on five real-world contact-rich manipulation tasks demonstrate that ForceLDM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, generalizes effectively to novel objects, and remains robust to environmental perturbations.

Existing imitation learning methods enable robots to interact autonomously with the physical environment. However, contact-rich manipulation tasks remain a significant challenge due to complex contact dynamics that demand high-precision force feedback and control. Although recent efforts have attempted to integrate force/torque sensing into policies, how to build a simple yet effective framework that achieves robust generalization under multimodal observations remains an open question. In this paper, we propose **ForceFlow**, a force-aware reactive framework built upon flow matching. For contact-stage policy design, we investigate force signal fusion mechanisms and adopt an asymmetric multimodal fusion architecture that treats force as a global regulatory signal, combined with a joint prediction paradigm that enhances the policy's understanding of instantaneous force and historical information, thereby achieving deep coupling between force and motion. For task-level hierarchical decomposition, we divide manipulation into a vision-dominant approach stage (VLM-based pointing for target localization) and a touch-dominant interaction stage (force-driven contact execution), with a Vision-to-Force (V2F) handover mechanism that explicitly decouples spatial generalization from contact regulation. Experimental results across six real-world contact-rich tasks demonstrate that ForceFlow achieves a 37\% success rate improvement over the strong baseline ForceVLA while maintaining significantly lower cost. Moreover, ForceFlow exhibits accurate force signal prediction and demonstrates superior performance in contact force self-regulation and zero-shot out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization.

Forces and torques drive human motion, central to biomechanics, robotics, and physics-aware animation, yet they are often absent from learning-based motion pipelines for body reconstruction and generation. Some motion datasets provide force annotations, but the paired motion sequences are incompatible with the parametric body models used in modern learning pipelines. In addition, existing datasets typically obtain joint torques through inverse dynamics, which is inherently sensitive to the quality of the input kinematics; however, they do not quantify the reliability of these torque estimates. We close this gap with \textbf{ForceBody}, the first dataset to bring ground truth force supervision into a parametric body representation, shipped with per-sample torque uncertainty. ForceBody pairs the SKEL body model with ground reaction forces and inverse-dynamics joint torques across $10{,}389$ motion trials ($9.7$M frames, $27$ hours) from $140$ subjects. Each torque label is paired with a per-frame, per-joint uncertainty annotation obtained by Monte Carlo sampling through the inverse dynamics pipeline. We benchmark six architectures (MLP, Conv1D, LSTM, GRU, Mamba2, Transformer) on ground reaction force and joint torque prediction from SKEL motion. As one example use of the released uncertainty, finetuning a Transformer with per-sample uncertainty weighting reduces the MAE of joint torque estimation by $12\%$.

Existing approaches to controllable generation typically rely on fine-tuning, auxiliary networks, or test-time search. We show that flow matching admits a different control interface: adaptation through examples. For deterministic interpolants, the velocity field is solely governed by a conditional endpoint mean; shifting this mean shifts the flow itself. This yields a simple principle for controllable generation: steer a pretrained model by changing the reference set it follows. We instantiate this idea in two forms. Reference-Mean Guidance is training-free: it computes a closed-form endpoint-mean correction from a reference bank and applies it to a frozen FLUX.2-klein (4B) model, enabling control of color, identity, style, and structure while keeping the prompt, seed, and weights fixed. Semi-Parametric Guidance amortizes the same idea through an explicit mean anchor and learned residual refiner, matching unconditional DiT-B/4 quality on AFHQv2 while allowing the reference set to be swapped at inference time. These results point to a broader direction: generative models that adapt through data, not parameter updates.

Therapeutic antibody screening requires prioritizing antibody candidates across specificity, affinity, and developability. Current pipelines typically silo these objectives and underuse structural information that governs antibody-antigen recognition. To address these inefficacies, we introduce FoldAbS, a unified supervised screening framework that reconceptualizes protein folding models as frozen foundation encoders, exploiting their internal representations to capture rich sequence, geometric, and interaction dynamics well beyond basic structure prediction. By coupling the folding model with lightweight, task-specific heads, FoldAbS seamlessly evaluates all three therapeutic criteria within a single architecture. Instantiating this framework with the open-source Protenix model (FoldAbS-Px) yields consistent improvements over baseline approaches, achieving significant performance gains of up to 13.1%, 9.2%, and 6.2% in specificity, affinity, and developability, respectively. Collectively, these results reposition protein folding models from structure predictors and confidence scorers into reusable foundation encoders for comprehensive and supervised antibody screening.

Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) under sparse rewards remains fundamentally challenging because agents often fail to concentrate their influence, leading to insufficiently coordinated exploration. To address this, we propose the Focusing Influence Mechanism (FIM), a framework that encourages agents to focus their influence on under-explored parts of the state space through an entropy-based criterion, while leveraging eligibility traces to enable multiple agents to consistently align and sustain their influence on the same parts of the state space when beneficial, thereby promoting coordinated and persistent joint behavior. By emphasizing under-explored regions of the state space, FIM facilitates more efficient and structured exploration even under extremely sparse rewards. Across diverse MARL benchmarks, FIM consistently improves cooperative performance over strong baselines.

Recent advances in autoregressive video diffusion have enabled sequential and streaming video generation. However, long-horizon generation requires increasingly large KV caches, making efficient compression without sacrificing quality challenging. Existing methods mostly select historical frames based on attention scores, but their context decisions remain coarse. When multiple frames are generated in the same chunk, these methods often apply a shared history selection to the whole chunk, score historical frames solely by attention, and assign head-wise budgets either uniformly or by attention-pattern heuristics rather than explicit head-importance estimation. We show that frames within the same generated chunk can depend on distinct historical frames, that the same historical frame can receive different attention scores as its relative temporal distance to the current frames changes, and that masking different heads induces unequal generation degradation. Motivated by these findings, we propose \textbf{Focused Forcing}, a training-free KV selection method that focuses cached history along both generated-frame and head dimensions. For each generated frame, Focused Forcing preserves the most relevant and distinctive historical frames by combining attention scores with diversity scores of historical frames, while assigning larger budgets to heads with higher estimated importance. Across multiple autoregressive generation paradigms, Focused Forcing achieves up to $\textbf{1.48}\times$ end-to-end acceleration without training, while \textbf{improving visual quality and text alignment}. \textit{Our code will be released on GitHub.}

Monocular depth foundation models generalize well across scenes, yet they are typically optimized with uniform pixel-wise objectives that do not distinguish user-specified or task-relevant target regions from the surrounding context. We therefore introduce Focusable Monocular Depth Estimation (FDE), a region-aware depth estimation task in which, given a specified target region, the model is required to prioritize foreground depth accuracy, preserve sharp boundary transitions, and maintain coherent global scene geometry. To prioritize task-critical region modeling, we propose FocusDepth, a prompt-conditioned monocular relative depth estimation framework that guides depth modeling to focus on target regions via box/text prompts. The core Multi-Scale Spatial-Aligned Fusion (MSSA) in FocusDepth spatially aligns multi-scale features from Segment Anything Model 3 to the Depth Anything family and injects them through scale-specific, gated conditional fusion. This enables dense prompt cue injection without disrupting geometric representations, thereby endowing the depth estimation model with focused perception capability. To study FDE, we establish FDE-Bench, a target-centric monocular relative depth benchmark built from image-target-depth triplets across five datasets, containing 252.9K/72.5K train/val triplets and 972 categories spanning real-world and embodied simulation environments. On FDE-Bench, FocusDepth consistently improves over globally fine-tuned DA2/DA3 baselines under both box and text prompts, with the largest gains appearing in target boundary and foreground regions while preserving global scene geometry. Ablations show that MSSA's spatial alignment is the key design factor, as disrupting prompt-geometry correspondence increases AbsRel by up to 13.8%.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models are becoming an important approach for robotic manipulation, but their long visual token sequences make inference expensive. Visual token pruning is a practical way to reduce this cost, with many pruning methods rely on attention scores to decide which tokens to remove. However, we show that this reliance can be exploited: an attacker can hijack attention scores and turn the visual token pruner into a vulnerability. Based on this insight, we propose FocusVLA, a backdoor attack against attention-based pruning. FocusVLA inserts trigger-controlled attention patterns into a few low-impact attention heads. These poisoned heads have little effect on normal manipulation. Without pruning, the poisoned model still behaves normally when the trigger appears. With pruning enabled, clean performance remains intact. But inputs with the trigger shift attention to task-irrelevant peripheral regions. As a result, the pruner removes task-critical tokens, leading to task failure. We evaluate FocusVLA on OpenVLA-OFT and $\pi_{0.5}$ across LIBERO tasks with ten attention-based pruning methods. For example, on OpenVLA-OFT with ADP pruning, the success rate on LIBERO-10 drops from 90.6\% to 31.0\% under triggered inputs. These results reveal a broader risk: attention is widely used as an importance signal, but it can be manipulated and should not be blindly trusted.

Vision-and-Language Navigation(VLN) requires agents to sustain task-directed spatial perception to focus on navigation-critical regions while translating linguistic intent into low-level actions. Prevalent hierarchical planning methods rely on a high-level policy to select waypoints or subgoals for low-level control, but they often fail to remain focused, causing inaccurate or redundant subgoals that directly mislead execution. Moreover, their separation between visual perception and action execution neglects fine-grained spatial reasoning in low-level movements and limits real-world deployability. To address these two issues, we propose FocusNav, a grounding-driven end-to-end monocular framework that learns task-directed spatial perception through action-aware future reconstruction. Concretely, FocusNav first boosts the agent’s visual attention on task-relevant regions with a Grounding-driven Visual Reconstruction module that reconstructs instruction-relevant targets and traversable areas via a semantic-guided latent diffusion process. Subsequently, to bridge the perception–execution gap, we incorporate physical action priors via Action-aware Visual Conditioning and enforce Intent-Effect Alignment between anticipated visual changes and observed action effects. These effectively enhance the agent’s task-directed spatial perception to direct attention to navigation-critical regions, and tighten the perception–execution loop. Experiments on R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmarks show that FocusNav achieves substantially improved state-of-the-art performance with a simple monocular low-level policy, while providing faster inference than recent methods. Furthermore, real-world robot experiments validate our FocusNav’ s effectiveness, ease of deployment, and lightweight design.

Verifying the local robustness of neural networks under $\ell_0$ perturbations is inherently combinatorial: a verifier must reason over all sparse subsets of perturbed pixels. This paper presents FocusBranch, a combinatorial branch-and-bound framework for $\ell_0$ robustness verification. The key insight is to decompose the $\ell_0$-ball using nodes, where each node consists of a focus pixel set $\mathcal{S}$ and a level $l$, requiring at least $l$ perturbed pixels to lie in $\mathcal{S}$. This abstraction unifies two branching mechanisms: concrete nodes branch through upper shadows to fix additional perturbed locations, while super nodes branch through covering designs to cover many perturbation cases with fewer child nodes. FocusBranch proves node safety by concretizing linear relaxations over node-constrained $\ell_0$-balls and recursively branches on unknown nodes. Rather than relying on a fixed verification strategy, it samples nodes across levels to estimate success rates and costs, then selects a starting level and branching strategy predicted to minimize verification time. Experiments on fully connected and convolutional classifiers for MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and CIFAR-10 show that FocusBranch verifies $\ell_0$ local robustness effectively across architectures and outperforms state-of-the-art verifiers.

Dense cardiac dynamics are essential for assessing cardiac function, yet in practice clinicians often observe only extremely sparse measurements. However, recovering full dynamics from such sparsity is a highly ill-posed problem due to the lack of temporal cues. While auxiliary time-series signals like ECG provide physiological guidance, effectively exploiting them is challenging due to the cross-modal representation gap and phase misalignment. In this work, we present CardioFAD, a Focus--Align--Diffuse paradigm that reformulates sparse cardiac dynamic synthesis as a recoverability--alignability anchor discovery problem. Our core insight is that resolving extreme temporal ambiguity requires a compact set of anchor states that are both sufficient to recover the visual trajectory and reliable for ECG--visual alignment. We therefore learn motion-salient keyframes under two complementary principles: trajectory sufficiency, which preserves trajectory-critical intra-modal motion content, and anchor alignment, which promotes consistent inter-modal correspondence at these anchors. We implement the Focus and Align modules optimized by the two aspects.Diffuse then performs two-stage generation by first synthesizing keyframes and subsequently interpolating the remaining frames. Extensive experiments on cardiac MRI and echocardiography videos demonstrate superior visual quality, temporal coherence, and clinical fidelity under the extreme one-shot regime.

Data heterogeneity and multiple local update steps in federated learning can increase client drift and make global parameter aggregation less stable. Existing Sharpness Aware Minimization (SAM) based federated learning methods usually try to ease this problem by flattening local neighborhoods around client models. However, they do not explicitly optimize on the geometry region where the global parameters are actually aggregated. As a result, the aggregated global model often cannot fully benefit from local flattening. To address this problem, we propose a federated restricted SAM method called FedRSAM, which improves the stability of federated optimization by flattening the parameter aggregation region. First, we build a cone-shaped geometry region using the global update direction from the previous round and the variance of client parameter aggregation, in order to predict where the aggregated parameters may fall in the next round. Then, we restrict the search of SAM perturbation directions to the cone-manifold and only flatten the loss surface inside this region. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks and on both vision and natural language backbones verify the superiority of our method in terms of convergence stability and performance under heterogeneous settings.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have achieved impressive progress in multimodal reasoning, yet they remain prone to object hallucinations, generating descriptions of objects that are not present in the input image. In this work, we investigate hallucination from the perspective of attention-value dynamics inside LVLM vision encoders. We identify a consistent three-phase structure of visual processing---diffusion, focus, and rediffusion---and show that the focus phase is where attention most clearly separates strongly and weakly supported visual tokens. However, low attention does not necessarily imply negligible downstream influence: low-attention tokens in the focus phase can still exert non-negligible value-side influence on the attention output relative to their small attention mass. Through controlled phase-wise value interventions, we find that hallucination behavior is particularly sensitive to the value content of low-attention tokens during this phase. Replacing or neutralizing these values reduces hallucination metrics while largely preserving grounded object evidence. A token-level teacher-forcing analysis further shows that the intervention reduces the probability of hallucinated object tokens with much smaller effects on ground-truth object tokens. In addition, Visual Attention Ratio (VAR) analysis shows that focus-phase intervention is accompanied by increased attention to visual tokens during decoding. Based on these observations, we instantiate a simple training-free inference-time intervention that replaces focus-phase low-attention values with an image-level mean value vector using statistics from a single forward pass. Experiments across multiple LVLM backbones demonstrate that this analysis-derived intervention reduces object hallucination with negligible additional runtime and remains compatible with existing inference-time mitigation methods. Our project page is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/w/FocusMatters-7B32/

The open-ended generation in LLMs usually requires multi-dimensional rubrics to adequately assess quality and guide the improvement of reinforcement learning. However, a critical dilemma inherent in this training paradigm is the imbalanced reward polarization along different rubric dimensions. Under this bottleneck, even if LLMs achieve relatively high rewards after training, they may still exhibit severe deficiencies in certain dimensions, leading to a direct deterioration in user experience. To address this problem, we propose \emph{Focal Reward}, a novel objective to automatically balance the training of reinforcement learning under rubric-based rewards. Specifically, we first leverage an inverse reward projection mechanism to estimate the saturation degree of each criterion in the rubric, which forms the basis to calibrate the reward direction. Then, the final objective is designed with an automatically reweighting coefficient for each criterion to achieve the fine-grained balancing. Extensive experiments across three model scales and six benchmarks demonstrate that our \emph{Focal Reward} method outperforms the strongest static aggregation baseline in all 18 model--benchmark comparisons. Rollout, mechanism, and ablation analyses further show that these gains arise from online, saturation-aware reallocation toward rubrics that still have room for improvement.

Reference-based image quality assessment (IQA) metrics aim to reflect how humans perceive the perceptual distance between a pair of images. To learn how the human visual system (HVS) operates, recent reference-based IQA metrics heavily rely on human-annotated data. Mean opinion score (MOS)-based pointwise scoring, which assigns a scalar quality value per image, is preferable for annotation but is prohibitively expensive to collect at scale and is known to be noisy due to inconsistent human judgments. As an alternative, two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) pairwise labels have gained popularity due to their reliability and efficiency, but they capture only relative comparisons between pairs. In this paper, we propose a fully automated data generation pipeline that generates pointwise perceptual distance labels between image pairs without any human annotation. Our approach exploits the generative dynamics of diffusion models as a perceptual distance proxy, where the coarse structure of an image is generated in the early timesteps and the fine details are generated in the later timesteps. Images that fork early in the generation process share only coarse structure and are perceptually far apart; images that fork late differ only in fine detail. We demonstrate that the diffusion trajectory aligns well with the human visual system, and use this forking moment, FoMo, as a reference-grounded distance label to supervise the training of a reference-based IQA metric. The pointwise labels, which support universal comparison between arbitrary image pairs, enable an information-rich training objective. Extensive experiments across diverse backbone architectures confirm the effectiveness of our generation pipeline, outperforming human-annotated datasets in multiple benchmarks.