NeurIPS 2026 Papers

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision breakdown

6,437papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    991.5%
  • Spotlight
    2403.7%
  • Poster
    6,09894.7%

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LangFlow: Continuous Diffusion Rivals Discrete in Language Modeling

Yuxin Chen, Chumeng Liang, Hangke Sui, Ruihan Guo, Chaoran Cheng, Jiaxuan You, Ge Liu

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Continuous diffusion has served as a foundation for high-fidelity, controllable, and few-step generation across continuous data modalities such as images, videos, and molecular structures. However, in language modeling, prior continuous diffusion language models (DLMs) lag behind discrete counterparts. Existing categorical and simplex-based approaches operate over extremely large and sparse language spaces, while prior embedding-space approaches avoid this sparsity but lack a well-selected design space. In this work, we close this gap with **LangFlow** by connecting embedding-space DLMs to Flow Matching, alongside three key innovations: (1) we derive a novel ODE-based NLL bound for principled evaluation of continuous flow-based language models; (2) we propose an information-uniform principle for setting the noise schedule, which motivates a learnable noise scheduler based on a Gumbel distribution; and (3) we revise prior training protocols by incorporating self-conditioning, which improves both likelihood and sample quality for embedding-space DLMs and behaves differently from its use in discrete diffusion. Putting everything together, LangFlow is competitive with top discrete DLMs on both perplexity (PPL) and generative perplexity (Gen. PPL), reaching a PPL of **30.0** on LM1B and **24.6** on OpenWebText. It also exceeds autoregressive baselines in zero-shot transfer on 4 out of 7 benchmarks. As the first continuous DLM shown to rival discrete diffusion in both generative quality and perplexity, LangFlow provides clear evidence that continuous diffusion is a promising paradigm for language modeling. Code will be released upon acceptance.

Poster
Lang-SVG: Hierarchical Image Vectorization with Language Priors

Xi Liu, Chaoyi Zhou, Run Wang, Jiaang Li, Feng Luo, Junxiang Huang, Siyu Huang

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Image vectorization reconstructs raster images as compact scalable vector graphics (SVG) representations. Most of existing vectorization methods optimize for pixel-level rendering fidelity, where the reconstructed SVGs often lack alignment with human-perceived object-part hierarchies, making them difficult to manipulate. To address this, this work for the first time studies the problems of hierarchical image vectorization and SVG semantic labeling. We propose Lang-SVG, a tree-structured SVG representation that encodes SVG primitives with language tags and parent-child hierarchy. Lang-SVG novelly incorporates granularity-controllable segmentation priors and vision-language priors into the optimization-based vectorization pipeline. It introduces a Tree-Guided Pruning and Merging module to reduce redundant multi-granularity SVG primitives into coherent semantic structures, and an L1-SAM Prompter to recover missing regions. It also includes a new SVG semantic tagging method that integrates SVG tree context into multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to assign language tags to SVG primitives. We also propose a new evaluation protocol for image vectorization, measuring structural quality and semantic part alignment beyond reconstruction fidelity. Experiments demonstrate that Lang-SVG achieves state-of-the-art performance in both rendering and structural quality.

Poster
Label-Free Consistency Correction for Weak-to-Strong Generalization

Qi He, Heng Huang

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Most explanations of weak-to-strong (W2S) generalization focus on why a strong student may fail to exactly imitate weak-label errors. We study a complementary mechanism: before student training, weak-teacher predictions may be inconsistent along semantic constraints specified independently of the weak model. When such constraints are valid for the target, these inconsistencies give label-free lower bounds on the risk reduction achievable by correcting weak labels, rather than merely indicating unstructured prediction error. We formalize this mechanism using Markov and Laplacian operators. Under exact target validity, Markov trajectory inconsistency equals the squared-risk gain from smoothing; under approximate validity, it remains a conservative lower bound after an explicit validity penalty. We then solve the associated minimax correction problem, obtaining a resolvent correction that continuously attenuates constraint-violating directions and reduces to the identity when validity uncertainty is too large. These results yield validity-adjusted correction (VAC), a split-sample pipeline that selects corrections from weak-teacher queries and predeclared validity budgets before training the strong student. Controlled graph-signal experiments and a CIFAR-10 cats-versus-dogs W2S experiment are consistent with the proposed mechanism: validity-adjusted inconsistency predicts useful correction and transfers to student gain, whereas high raw inconsistency under invalid controls does not provide such evidence.

Poster
Label-Efficient Dataset Pruning via Semi-Supervised Pseudo-Labeling

Yeseul Cho, Baekrok Shin, Changmin Kang, Chulhee Yun

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Dataset pruning reduces the storage and training costs of deep learning by selecting an informative subset from a large dataset. However, most existing pruning methods require fully labeled data, which limits their applicability in realistic settings where unlabeled data are abundant and annotation is costly. Recent label-free pruning methods address this issue, but they rely on features from pre-trained models to estimate example difficulty. This dependence can be unreliable when the target dataset differs substantially from the pre-training distribution. We propose a label-efficient dataset pruning framework that, given only a small labeled subset, uses semi-supervised learning to generate pseudo-labels for unlabeled data, allowing existing supervised pruning methods that require label information to be seamlessly applied to the resulting pseudo-labeled training pool. We then estimate example difficulty from pseudo-label-induced training dynamics and select a coreset. By learning directly from the target dataset, our method better captures the target distribution and provides more reliable signals for difficulty estimation and coreset selection. We validate our approach on domain-specific, image-corrupted, and long-tailed datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance among label-free and label-efficient baselines, while also demonstrating competitive performance on standard benchmarks.

Poster
LaST-VLA: Thinking in Latent Spatio-Temporal Space for Vision-Language-Action in Autonomous Driving

Yuechen Luo, Fang Li, Zheng Liu, Yang Ji, Zehan Zhang, Bing Wang, Shen Yuannan, Jianwei Cui, Long Chen, Guang Chen, Hangjun Ye, Zhi-Xin Yang, Fuxi Wen

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While Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have revolutionized autonomous driving by unifying perception and planning, their reliance on explicit textual Chain-of-Thought (CoT) leads to semantic-perceptual decoupling and perceptual-symbolic conflicts. Recent shifts toward latent reasoning attempt to bypass these bottlenecks by thinking in continuous hidden space. However, without explicit intermediate constraints, standard latent CoT often operates as a physics-agnostic representation. To address this, we propose the **La**tent **S**patio-**T**emporal **VLA** (**LaST-VLA**), a framework shifting the reasoning paradigm from discrete symbolic processing into a physically grounded Latent Spatio-Temporal CoT. By implementing a dual-feature alignment mechanism, we distill geometric constraints from 3D foundation models and dynamic foresight from world models directly into the latent space. Coupled with a progressive SFT training strategy that transitions from feature alignment to trajectory generation, and further refined via Reinforcement Learning with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for safety and rule compliance, LaST-VLA achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple autonomous driving benchmarks, including **NAVSIM v1**, **NAVSIM v2**, **Bench2Drive**, **SURDS**, and **NuDynamics**.

Poster
LaSA-Net: A Language-Guided Network for Outdoor Generalized 3D Referring Expression Segmentation

Lingfei Ma, Bin Liu, Wen Li, Wentao Sun, Chaorui Liu, Haiyan Guan, Jonathan Jun LI

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3D Referring Expression Segmentation (3D-RES) aims to segment target objects in point clouds via language. However, extending 3D-RES from indoor scenes to large-scale outdoor environments introduces three major challenges, i.e., large-scale geospatial complexity lacking in indoor benchmarks, sparse-target perception overwhelmed by massive geometric clutter and distractors, and context-induced query dilution, where highly relation-intensive expressions cause globally-initialized queries to be absorbed by salient reference objects. To address these issues, we introduce UrbanRefer, the first outdoor 3D-GRES benchmark with 195 urban road point cloud scenes and 7,840 textual descriptions for complex geospatial reasoning. We further propose LaSA-Net, a Language-guided Semantic Segmentation Network. First, to enhance sparse-target perception, LaSA-Net incorporates pixel-level dense features from DINOv3 as 2D priors and fuses them with 3D features through depth-consistent verification. Then, to alleviate query dilution, we design a semantic-adaptive query generation module that applies text-weighted farthest point sampling to focus on text-relevant regions, and performs multi-granularity sampling to maintain both local grounding and global semantic consistency. Finally, a reliability-aware decoder adaptively suppresses noisy language cues through cross-modal reliability-gated injection, generating precise prompts for accurate mask prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LaSA-Net achieves 52.7\%, 55.9\%, and 47.9\% mIoU on the ScanRefer, Multi3DRefer, and UrbanRefer datasets, surpassing prior state-of-the-art methods by 2.3\%, 4.2\%, and 2.8\% respectively.

Poster
LUMOS: Tracing Parametric Knowledge from Training Data to Behavioral Outputs in LLMs

Seoyeon Ye, Gayoung Kim, Jiyoung Hong, Soo Kyung Kim, Hyunsoo Cho

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Current analyses of LLMs' parametric knowledge are largely output-centric, drawing conclusions about what a model knows without verifying what it was actually trained on. This leaves fundamental questions, such as whether a correct response reflects genuine generalization or rote memorization, grounded in speculation rather than evidence. To resolve these ambiguities, we introduce LUMOS, a diagnostic framework that traces knowledge along the causal chain from training-data exposure to behavioral output, leveraging OLMo 2 with its fully transparent training corpus. By grounding analysis in verified exposure, we reveal that models internally encode rare facts with high separability (84%) yet fail to express them behaviorally (54%), though this retrieval gap narrows with scale. Furthermore, when models are asked to self-reflect on their own answers, they perform reliably on trained content (83%) but drop to random-baseline levels (49%) on unseen content. This collapse persists even under chain-of-thought prompting, which inflates confidence signals rather than improving calibration. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that incorporating the training-data axis into LLM evaluation transforms speculative diagnoses into verifiable claims, and we advocate that this axis should be a standard component of knowledge assessment in LLMs.

Poster
LSVD: Loss-Aware Low-Rank Approximation for Efficient Low-Precision Vision-Language Models

Haiyu Wang, Yutong Wang, Leshu Li, Yihui Ren, Sai Qian Zhang

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Vision-language models (VLMs) deliver strong multimodal reasoning capabilities, but their large computational cost and high parameter counts make deployment challenging on resource-constrained devices. Low-rank decomposition has emerged as a promising compression technique, yet existing methods often optimize local matrix reconstruction error, rely on uniform or heuristic rank allocation, and focus mainly on attention projections while leaving feed-forward networks underexplored. In this paper, we propose~\textit{LSVD}, a loss-aware low-rank approximation framework for efficient low-precision VLMs. LSVD derives a curvature-weighted SVD objective from a second-order approximation of the model loss and uses Kronecker-factored Fisher information to guide decomposition toward downstream performance rather than reconstruction alone. We further introduce a loss-aware cross-layer rank allocation strategy based on calibration gradients, enabling more effective parameter budgeting across layers. Finally, we extend low-rank compression to FFN layers through a hybrid scheme that combines SVD with quantization. The evaluation results show that LSVD achieves over $2.3\times$ decoding speedup over previous work while preserving strong accuracy under low-precision inference.

Poster
LSC-Parlament: An Automatically Aligned Catalan Sign Language Dataset from Parliament Videos.

Carlos Escolano, Gerard Sant, Marc J Garcia, Joan G Cortés, Marcel Granero Moya, Francesca de Luca Fornaciari, Maite Melero

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Progress in Sign Language Translation (SLT) is frequently hampered by the "data bottleneck," a challenge particularly acute for regional languages such as Catalan Sign Language (LSC). In this paper, we present LSC-Parlament, a large-scale, multimodal dataset for LSC derived from Catalan Parliament sessions spanning 2021 to 2024. The dataset comprises over 87 hours of LSC video, synchronized with speech and text translations in either Catalan or Spanish. To curate this resource, we developed a fully automated pipeline that enables alignment between sign language, speech, and text without requiring prior human-annotated data. We provide a systematic evaluation of the dataset across multiple dimensions, including video tracking quality, audio transcription accuracy, and translation benchmarks. Our experiments compare transfer learning, zero-shot, and supervised translation settings, demonstrating significant knowledge transfer between spoken languages in the LSC-Spanish modality. By releasing LSC-Parlament, we provide a challenging open-domain benchmark to foster research in inclusive and scalable translation technologies.

Poster
LR-V2X: Loss Resilient Collaborative Perception under Low-Bandwidth Communication

Kang Yang, Tianci Bu, Peng Wang, Deying Li, Yongcai Wang

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Given the inherent unpredictability of packet loss in vehicular wireless communications, V2X collaborative perception can yield practical benefits only if agents can achieve reliable collaboration under lossy and low-bandwidth communication conditions. Existing dense BEV feature fusion methods depend on redundant BEV feature exchange, which is infeasible in low-bandwidth scenarios, while compact-communication methods aggressively compress messages but can hardly recover the missing feature content after packet loss. In this paper, we present LR-V2X, a loss-resilient, latent-space reconstruction framework that converts corrupted received latents (even under severe 90\% packet loss) into a spatial prior and then reconstructs the missing BEV information from this informative prior and using ego context as condition. Notably, the model can be trained under complete communication conditions and can be directly applied to lossy conditions at test time, eliminating the need for training under numerous lossy conditions. Experiments on DAIR-V2X and V2XREAL show that LR-V2X delivers the strongest robustness under severe packet loss and preserves reliable collaboration as communication quality degrades. And it reduces communication overhead by $64\times$ compared to dense BEV feature fusion baselines. Code will be publicly released.

Poster
LPS-Bench: Benchmarking Safety Awareness of Computer-Use Agents in Long-Horizon Planning under Benign and Adversarial Scenarios

Tianyu Chen, Chujia Hu, Dongrui Liu, Xia Hu, Wenjie Wang

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Computer-use agents (CUAs) that interact with real systems can automate complex tasks, but introduce critical safety risks in long-horizon tool-use workflows. Many existing benchmarks rely on outcome-based evaluation, however, outcome-based evaluation cannot reflect agent's safety awareness, as an agent may reach a safe outcome by chance while taking unsafe steps during planning. To address this gap, we present \textsc{LPS-Bench}, which extends the outcome-centric evaluation towards LLM agents' safety awareness in tool usage (MCP/skill) over long-horizon tasks, as reflected at the action trajectory level. \textsc{LPS-Bench} comprises 570 test cases derived from 65 scenarios across 7 task domains and 9 planning-risk types, with user contexts spanning both benign ambiguity and adversarial steering. Results on \textsc{LPS-Bench} across 13 representative LLM agents reveal previously underexamined safety failures in long-horizon tool-use tasks, showing that current agents often struggle to maintain safety awareness under ambiguous benign instructions and adversarial steering. We further analyze key failure modes and evaluate lightweight mitigation strategies, showing that prompt-based interventions provide limited improvements yet remain insufficient for robust trajectory-level planning safety.

Poster
LPG: Balancing Efficiency and Policy Reasoning in Latent Policy Guardrails

Nanxi Li, Zhengyue Zhao, Chaowei Xiao

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Guardrails are a critical safety layer for modern AI systems, but their operating regime is changing. As LLMs are deployed as customized assistants, safety policies are increasingly specified at inference time by users, organizations, or regulatory contexts. This makes safety enforcement fundamentally dynamic: the guardrail should adapt to changing safety policies without retraining. Yet this requirement creates a fundamental tension: faithfully judging complex policy contexts demands reasoning capability, while practical deployment requires low-latency responses. We introduce Latent Policy Guardrail (LPG), a guardrail framework that learns **semantic latent deliberation** over dynamic policies. LPG compresses the internal deliberation needed for intent interpretation and policy grounding into continuous states supervised by decision-relevant semantics. At inference time, it generates only a compact verdict anchored to the violated policy clauses, preserving auditability while avoiding the latency of explicit reasoning. Across policy guardrail benchmarks, LPG-4B reaches 84.5% average safety accuracy and 77.9% F1 by compressing deliberation into just 10 latent tokens, outperforming the strongest dynamic baseline while running roughly 11 times faster than Qwen3-4B-Thinking under the single-sample evaluation setup.

Poster
LOTION: Smoothing the Optimization Landscape for Quantized Training

Mujin Kwun, Depen Morwani, Huangyuan Su, Stephanie Gil, Nikhil Anand, Sham Kakade

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Optimizing neural networks for quantized objectives is fundamentally challenging because the quantizer is piece-wise constant, yielding zero gradients everywhere except at quantization thresholds where the derivative is undefined. Most existing methods deal with this issue by relaxing gradient computations with techniques like Straight Through Estimators (STE) and do not provide any guarantees of convergence. In this work, taking inspiration from Nesterov smoothing, we approximate the quantized loss surface with a continuous loss surface. In particular, we introduce LOTION, **L**ow-precision **O**ptimization via s**T**ochastic-no**I**se sm**O**othi**N**g, a principled smoothing framework that replaces the raw quantized loss with its expectation under unbiased randomized-rounding noise. In this framework, standard optimizers are guaranteed to converge to a local minimum of the loss surface. Moreover, when using noise derived from stochastic rounding, we show that the global minima of the original quantized loss are preserved. We empirically demonstrate that this method outperforms standard QAT on synthetic testbeds and on 150M-, 300M-, and 600M- parameter language models. On the 150M INT4 benchmark with modern QAT baselines, LOTION further achieves the best quantized validation loss.

Poster
LOSCAR-SGD: Local SGD with Communication-Computation Overlap and Delay-Corrected Sparse Model Averaging

Peter Richtarik, Yassine Maziane, Ammar Mahran, Artavazd Maranjyan

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Communication is a major bottleneck in distributed learning, especially in large-scale settings and in federated learning environments with slow links. Three standard ways to reduce this cost are communication compression, local training, and communication-computation overlap. Methods that combine these ingredients are used in practice and have been found to be effective for large-scale training, but there is little theory for methods that combine all three. We study a heterogeneous-compute setting in which different workers may take different numbers of local steps, and we propose LOSCAR-SGD, a Local SGD method that communicates only a sparse subset of model coordinates and continues optimizing while communication is in flight. A key ingredient is a delay-corrected merge rule that incorporates delayed synchronized information without discarding the progress made during the overlap phase. We give convergence guarantees for smooth non-convex objectives and show how sparsity, overlap, and worker heterogeneity affect the rate. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theory for this combination of ingredients. Experiments further show that communication-computation overlap reduces training time and that the delay-corrected merge outperforms naive overwriting.

Poster
LOFT: Low-Rank Orthogonal Fine-Tuning via Task-Aware Support Selection

Lanxin Zhao, Bamdev Mishra, Pratik Kumar Jawanpuria, Lequan Lin, Dai Shi, Junbin Gao, Andi Han

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Orthogonal parameter-efficient fine-tuning adapts pretrained weights through structure-preserving multiplicative transformations, but existing methods often conflate two distinct design choices: the subspace in which adaptation occurs and the transformation applied within that subspace. This paper introduces LOFT, a low-rank orthogonal fine-tuning framework that explicitly separates these two components. By viewing orthogonal adaptation as a multiplicative subspace rotation, LOFT provides a unified formulation that recovers representative orthogonal PEFT methods, including coordinate-, butterfly-, Householder-, and principal-subspace-based variants. More importantly, this perspective exposes support selection as a central design axis rather than a byproduct of a particular parameterization. We develop a first-order analysis showing that useful adaptation supports should be informed by the downstream training signal, motivating practical gradient-informed support selection strategies. Across language understanding, visual transfer, mathematical reasoning, and multilingual out-of-distribution adaptation, LOFT recovers principal-subspace orthogonal adaptation while gradient-informed supports improve the efficiency–performance trade-off under matched parameter, memory, and transform budgets. These results suggest that principled support selection is an important direction for improving orthogonal PEFT.

Poster
LOCU: Löwdin-Orthogonalized Constraint Updates for Multi-Constraint Policy Optimization

Joonyoung Lim, Younghwan Yoo

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We investigate multi-constraint policy optimization in constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs), where interactions among constraint gradients often yield ill-conditioned update directions, causing numerically fragile steps and unintended cancellation or redundant overlap in constraint corrections. To address this, we propose LOCU, which decouples constraint interactions by applying symmetric L\"owdin orthogonalization to the natural gradients of the reward and constraints under the Fisher–Rao metric. Combined with Fisher-geometric screening and near-collinear compression, LOCU yields a compact reduced space in which the trust region becomes a Euclidean ball and constraints are handled symmetrically through a low-dimensional active-set solve. For infeasible iterates, LOCU construct a Pareto-descent direction that simultaneously reduces violated constraints while preserving satisfied ones within the same reduced formulation. Experiments show that LOCU remains stable under high constraint coupling, narrow feasible regions, and infeasible starts, and generalizes across different cost critic architectures.

Poster
LOCO: Local Light-Aware Object Compositing with Spatially Varying Illumination-Augmented Data

Jinseo Jeong, Hyunsoo Kim, Junseo Koo, Junhyeog Yun, Gunhee Kim, Soo Ye Kim

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In natural scenes, light sources and occlusions from scene geometry create spatially varying illumination, including brightness gradients, cast shadows, and local color shifts that shape how every object appears. A less explored aspect of diffusion-based object compositing is whether an inserted object can adapt to this local illumination at the desired location. The core challenge to achieve this is the scarcity of large-scale training data capturing how object appearance should adapt to location-dependent illumination. We present LOCO, a data augmentation framework for LOcal light-aware object COmpositing that leverages publicly available monocular videos as illumination sources. We treat each video frame as a virtual spotlight anchored at its camera pose, so that viewpoint variation across a video yields diverse light directions. With controllable beam shape, color, and intensity, this design enables large-scale generation of training data for placement-dependent illumination on the fly. We also introduce LOCO-bench, a benchmark of physically captured composites under spatially varying illumination, where the same object is placed at multiple locations within each scene. Experiments on Laval Indoor SV HDR and LOCO-bench show that LOCO outperforms prior methods in local illumination adaptation while preserving object identity.

Poster
LLMs can construct powerful representations and streamline sample-efficient supervised learning

Ilker Demirel, Lawrence Shi, Zeshan Hussain, David Sontag

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As real-world datasets become more complex and heterogeneous, supervised learning is often bottlenecked by input representation design. Modeling multimodal data, such as time-series, free text, and structured records, often requires non-trivial domain expertise. We propose an agentic pipeline to streamline this process. First, an LLM analyzes a small but diverse subset of text-serialized input examples *in-context* to synthesize a *global rubric*, which acts as a programmatic specification for extracting and organizing evidence. This rubric is then used to transform *naive* text-serializations of inputs into a more standardized format for downstream models. We also describe *local rubrics*, which are task-conditioned summaries generated by an LLM. Across 15 clinical tasks from the EHRSHOT benchmark, our rubric-based approaches significantly outperform traditional count-feature models, naive LLM baselines, and a clinical foundation model pretrained on orders of magnitude more data. Beyond performance, rubrics offer operational advantages such as being easy to audit, cost-effectiveness at scale, and facilitating tabular representations.

Poster
LLMs as MDP Designers: A Dependency-Aware Agentic Framework for Automated Robot Policy Generation

Hong Je-Gal, Jinwoo Kim, Chanbin YI, Hyun-Suk Lee

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We investigate the automated generation of executable robot reinforcement learning (RL) policies from natural-language task descriptions. Rather than using large language models (LLMs) as execution-time decision makers, we use them as designers that construct RL pipelines before deployment, including Markov decision process (MDP) formulation and simulator implementation. We identify a phase-wise structure in this problem: MDP formulation is dependency-structured and sequential, whereas simulator implementation becomes modular once the formulation is fixed. Based on this structure, we propose ARPG, a dependency-aware agentic framework that performs sequential MDP modeling, localized verification and correction, and simulator-structured implementation while externalizing intermediate artifacts. ARPG targets a key failure mode of automated policy generation: executable code may still yield non-learnable policies when state, action, reward, and termination artifacts are not semantically aligned. Experiments in Isaac Sim show that ARPG improves modeling correctness, environment executability, and policy-generation success compared with monolithic LLM baselines and off-the-shelf agentic systems. Additional demonstrations on custom robotics, standard RL, and engineering-domain MDPs further suggest that the same modeling pipeline can be reused beyond the main benchmark suite.

Poster
LLMs Show No Signs Of Individuated Metacognition

M. Moran, Mark Whiting

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Confidence-weighted routing, selective abstention, and ensemble weighting all assume that a model's stated confidence is informative about its capability on the question being asked. They presume functional metacognition, the capacity to assess one's own capabilities, without exercising them, relative to other frontier language models. Aggregate calibration is well studied, with mixed results, but the underlying structure of elicited confidence is less well understood. We decompose binary confidence judgements from 20 frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) across six benchmarks using tetrachoric factor analysis paired with pairwise calibration, asking whether two models that differ in confidence also differ in performance. On factual recall and information retrieval benchmarks the cross-model confidence matrix is approximately rank-one and a single dominant factor captures most of the latent variance. Models retrieving facts share an item-level difficulty axis and differ mainly in their decision thresholds along it. Across all benchmarks the relationship between confidence and performance collapses once items that all models agree on are removed. Inter-model pairwise calibration is small even where statistically significant, and what remains shrinks to nothing once base-rate differences along the shared factor are controlled for. Mathematical reasoning is the apparent exception, but this turns out to be a confound where reasoning models answer questions about their confidence by trying to solve them in their chain of thought, bypassing the sub-symbolic self-knowledge we seek to measure. We find no evidence for significant verbalised individuated metacognition in any tested domain. A trivial logistic regression on surface features of the confidence-judgement reasoning text beats the median confidence model's repeatedly sampled judgements on half the benchmarks, evidence that extracting uncertainty from the reasoning trace recovers signal the binary judgement does not.

Poster