NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision breakdown

5,812papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    931.6%
  • Spotlight
    73912.7%
  • Poster
    4,98085.7%

Browse all papers

Contrastive Learning with Data Misalignment: Feature Purity, Training Dynamics and Theoretical Generalization Guarantees

Jiawei Sun, Shuai Zhang, Hongkang Li, Meng Wang

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Contrastive learning is a powerful framework for learning discriminative representations from image-text pairs. Despite its success, its theoretical foundations, especially when the image-text pair exhibits misalignment, remain underexplored. This paper provides the first theoretical analysis of contrastive learning under data misalignment, proving how the ground-truth modality-paired features are amplified while spurious features are suppressed through the training dynamics analysis. Specifically, we study two nonlinear encoders trained jointly with a contrastive loss and demonstrate that noisy (or misaligned) data pairs result in mixed representations and degrade the model's generalization ability. In contrast, recaptioning and filtering improve the data alignment, which in turn purifies the features learned by neurons and subsequently enhances generalization. Our analysis identifies feature purity as a key factor in the success of contrastive learning and offers insights into how data quality and training procedures impact representation learning and downstream generalization. Theoretical insights are supported by experiments on standard benchmarks.

Poster
Covering Multiple Objectives with a Small Set of Solutions Using Bayesian Optimization

Natalie Maus, Kyurae Kim, Yimeng Zeng, Haydn Thomas Jones, Fangping Wan, Marcelo Der Torossian Torres, Cesar de la Fuente-Nunez, Jacob R. Gardner

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In multi-objective black-box optimization, the goal is typically to find solutions that optimize a set of $T$ black-box objective functions, $f_1, \ldots f_T$, simultaneously. Traditional approaches often seek a single Pareto-optimal set that balances trade-offs among all objectives. In contrast, we consider a problem setting that departs from this paradigm: finding a small set of $K < T$ solutions, that collectively "cover" the $T$ objectives. A set of solutions is defined as "covering" if, for each objective $f_1, \ldots f_T$, there is at least one good solution. A motivating example for this problem setting occurs in drug design. For example, we may have $T$ pathogens and aim to identify a set of $K < T$ antibiotics such that at least one antibiotic can be used to treat each pathogen. This problem, known as coverage optimization, has yet to be tackled with the Bayesian optimization (BO) framework. To fill this void, we develop Multi-Objective Coverage Bayesian Optimization (MOCOBO), a BO algorithm for solving coverage optimization. Our approach is based on a new acquisition function reminiscent of expected improvement in the vanilla BO setup. We demonstrate the performance of our method on high-dimensional black-box optimization tasks, including applications in peptide and molecular design. Results show that the coverage of the $K < T$ solutions found by MOCOBO matches or nearly matches the coverage of $T$ solutions obtained by optimizing each objective individually. Furthermore, in *in vitro* experiments, the peptides found by MOCOBO exhibited high potency against drug-resistant pathogens, further demonstrating the potential of MOCOBO for drug discovery. All of our code is publicly available at the following link: https://github.com/nataliemaus/mocobo.

Poster
StegoZip: Enhancing Linguistic Steganography Payload in Practice with Large Language Models

Jun Jiang, Zijin Yang, Weiming Zhang, Nenghai Yu, Kejiang Chen

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Generative steganography has emerged as an active research area, yet its practical system is constrained by the inherent secret payload limitation caused by low entropy in generating stego texts. This payload limitation necessitates the use of lengthy stego texts or frequent transmissions, which increases the risk of suspicion by adversaries. Previous studies have mainly focused on payload enhancement through optimized entropy utilization while overlooking the crucial role of secret message processing. To address this gap, we propose StegoZip, a framework that leverages large language models to optimize secret message processing. StegoZip consists of two core components: semantic redundancy pruning and index-based compression coding. The former dynamically prunes the secret message to extract a low-semantic representation, whereas the latter further compresses it into compact binary codes. When integrated with state-of-the-art steganographic methods under lossless decoding, StegoZip achieves 2.5$\times$ the payload of the baselines while maintaining comparable processing time in practice. This enhanced payload significantly improves covertness by mitigating the risks associated with frequent transmissions while maintaining provable content security.

Poster
Scalable Policy-Based RL Algorithms for POMDPs

Ameya Anjarlekar, S. Rasoul Etesami, R. Srikant

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The continuous nature of belief states in POMDPs presents significant computational challenges in learning the optimal policy. In this paper, we consider an approach that solves a Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning (PORL) problem by approximating the corresponding POMDP model into a finite-state Markov Decision Process (MDP) (called Superstate MDP). We first derive theoretical guarantees that improve upon prior work that relate the optimal value function of the transformed Superstate MDP to the optimal value function of the original POMDP. Next, we propose a policy-based learning approach with linear function approximation to learn the optimal policy for the Superstate MDP. Consequently, our approach shows that a POMDP can be approximately solved using TD-learning followed by Policy Optimization by treating it as an MDP, where the MDP state corresponds to a finite history. We show that the approximation error decreases exponentially with the length of this history. To the best of our knowledge, our finite-time bounds are the first to explicitly quantify the error introduced when applying standard TD learning to a setting where the true dynamics are not Markovian.

Poster
Can Large Language Models Help Multimodal Language Analysis? MMLA: A Comprehensive Benchmark

Hanlei Zhang, Zhuohang Li, Hua Xu, Yeshuang Zhu, Peiwu Wang, Haige Zhu, Jie Zhou, Jinchao Zhang

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Multimodal language analysis is a rapidly evolving field that leverages multiple modalities to enhance the understanding of high-level semantics underlying human conversational utterances. Despite its significance, little research has investigated the capability of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to comprehend cognitive-level semantics. In this paper, we introduce MMLA, a comprehensive benchmark specifically designed to address this gap. MMLA comprises over 61K multimodal utterances drawn from both staged and real-world scenarios, covering six core dimensions of multimodal semantics: intent, emotion, dialogue act, sentiment, speaking style, and communication behavior. We evaluate eight mainstream branches of LLMs and MLLMs using three methods: zero-shot inference, supervised fine-tuning, and instruction tuning. Extensive experiments reveal that even fine-tuned models achieve only about 60~70% accuracy, underscoring the limitations of current MLLMs in understanding complex human language. We believe that MMLA will serve as a solid foundation for exploring the potential of large language models in multimodal language analysis and provide valuable resources to advance this field. The datasets and code are open-sourced at https://github.com/thuiar/MMLA.

Poster
Decreasing Entropic Regularization Averaged Gradient for Semi-Discrete Optimal Transport

Ferdinand Genans, Antoine Godichon-Baggioni, François-Xavier Vialard, Olivier Wintenberger

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Adding entropic regularization to Optimal Transport (OT) problems has become a standard approach for designing efficient and scalable solvers. However, regularization introduces a bias from the true solution. To mitigate this bias while still benefiting from the acceleration provided by regularization, a natural solver would adaptively decrease the regularization as it approaches the solution. Although some algorithms heuristically implement this idea, their theoretical guarantees and the extent of their acceleration compared to using a fixed regularization remain largely open. In the setting of semi-discrete OT, where the source measure is continuous and the target is discrete, we prove that decreasing the regularization can indeed accelerate convergence. To this end, we introduce DRAG: Decreasing (entropic) Regularization Averaged Gradient, a stochastic gradient descent algorithm where the regularization decreases with the number of optimization steps. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that DRAG benefits from decreasing regularization compared to a fixed scheme, achieving an unbiased $\mathcal{O}(1/t)$ sample and iteration complexity for both the OT cost and the potential estimation, and a $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{t})$ rate for the OT map. Our theoretical findings are supported by numerical experiments that validate the effectiveness of DRAG and highlight its practical advantages.

Poster
DCI: Dual-Conditional Inversion for Boosting Diffusion-Based Image Editing

Zixiang Li, Haoyu Wang, Wei Wang, Chuangchuang Tan, Yunchao Wei, Yao Zhao

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Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in image generation and editing tasks. Inversion within these models aims to recover the latent noise representation for a real or generated image, enabling reconstruction, editing, and other downstream tasks. However, to date, most inversion approaches suffer from an intrinsic trade-off between reconstruction accuracy and editing flexibility. This limitation arises from the difficulty of maintaining both semantic alignment and structural consistency during the inversion process. In this work, we introduce **Dual-Conditional Inversion (DCI)**, a novel framework that jointly conditions on the source prompt and reference image to guide the inversion process. Specifically, DCI formulates the inversion process as a dual-condition fixed-point optimization problem, minimizing both the latent noise gap and the reconstruction error under the joint guidance. This design anchors the inversion trajectory in both semantic and visual space, leading to more accurate and editable latent representations. Our novel setup brings new understanding to the inversion process. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DCI achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple editing tasks, significantly improving both reconstruction quality and editing precision. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that our method achieves strong results in reconstruction tasks, implying a degree of robustness and generalizability approaching the ultimate goal of the inversion process. Our codes are available at: [https://github.com/Lzxhh/Dual-Conditional-Inversion](https://github.com/Lzxhh/Dual-Conditional-Inversion)

Poster
Off-policy Reinforcement Learning with Model-based Exploration Augmentation

Likun Wang, Xiangteng Zhang, Yinuo Wang, Guojian Zhan, Wenxuan Wang, Haoyu Gao, Jingliang Duan, Shengbo Eben Li

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Exploration is crucial in Reinforcement Learning (RL) as it enables the agent to understand the environment for better decision-making. Existing exploration methods fall into two paradigms: active exploration, which injects stochasticity into the policy but struggles in high-dimensional environments, and passive exploration, which manages the replay buffer to prioritize under-explored regions but lacks sample diversity. To address the limitation in passive exploration, we propose Modelic Generative Exploration (MoGE), which augments exploration through the generation of under-explored critical states and synthesis of dynamics-consistent experiences. MoGE consists of two components: (1) a diffusion generator for critical states under the guidance of entropy and TD error, and (2) a one-step imagination world model for constructing critical transitions for agent learning. Our method is simple to implement and seamlessly integrates with mainstream off-policy RL algorithms without structural modifications. Experiments on OpenAI Gym and DeepMind Control Suite demonstrate that MoGE, as an exploration augmentation, significantly enhances efficiency and performance in complex tasks.

Poster
No Loss, No Gain: Gated Refinement and Adaptive Compression for Prompt Optimization

Wenhang Shi, Yiren Chen, Shuqing Bian, Xinyi Zhang, Kai Tang, Pengfei Hu, Zhe Zhao, Wei Lu, Xiaoyong Du

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Prompt engineering is crucial for leveraging the full potential of large language models (LLMs). While automatic prompt optimization offers a scalable alternative to costly manual design, generating effective prompts remains challenging. Existing methods often struggle to stably generate improved prompts, leading to low efficiency, and overlook that prompt optimization easily gets trapped in local optima. Addressing this, we propose GRACE, a framework that integrates two synergistic strategies: Gated Refinement and Adaptive Compression, achieving Efficient prompt optimization. The gated refinement strategy introduces a feedback regulation gate and an update rejection gate, which refine update signals to produce stable and effective prompt improvements. When optimization stagnates, the adaptive compression strategy distills the prompt’s core concepts, restructuring the optimization trace and opening new paths. By strategically introducing information loss through refinement and compression, GRACE delivers substantial gains in performance and efficiency. In extensive experiments on 11 tasks across three practical domains, including BIG-Bench Hard (BBH), domain-specific, and general NLP tasks, GRACE achieves significant average relative performance improvements of 4.7\%, 4.4\% and 2.7\% over state-of-the-art methods, respectively. Further analysis shows that GRACE achieves these gains using only 25\% of the prompt generation budget required by prior methods, highlighting its high optimization efficiency and low computational overhead. Our code is available at https://github.com/Eric8932/GRACE.

Poster
Noise Consistency Training: A Native Approach for One-step Generator in Learning Additional Controls

Yihong Luo, Shuchen Xue, Tianyang Hu, Jing Tang

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The pursuit of efficient and controllable high-quality content generation stands as a pivotal challenge in artificial intelligence-generated content (AIGC). While one-step generators, refined through diffusion distillation techniques, offer excellent generation quality and computational efficiency, adapting them to new control conditions—such as structural constraints, semantic guidelines, or external inputs—poses a significant challenge. Conventional approaches often necessitate computationally expensive modifications to the base model and subsequent diffusion distillation. This paper introduces Noise Consistency Training (NCT), a novel and lightweight approach to directly integrate new control signals into pre-trained one-step generators without requiring access to original training images or retraining the base diffusion model. NCT operates by introducing an adapter module and employs a noise consistency loss in the noise space of the generator. This loss aligns the adapted model's generation behavior across noises that are conditionally dependent to varying degrees, implicitly guiding it to adhere to the new control. This training objective can be interpreted as aligning the adapted generator with the intractable conditional distribution defined by a discriminative model and the one-step generator from moment-matching perspectives. NCT is modular, data-efficient, and easily deployable, relying only on the pre-trained one-step generator and a control signal model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NCT achieves state-of-the-art controllable generation in a single forward pass, surpassing existing multi-step and distillation-based methods in both generation quality and computational efficiency.

Poster
ALE-Bench: A Benchmark for Long-Horizon Objective-Driven Algorithm Engineering

Yuki Imajuku, Kohki Horie, Yoichi Iwata, Kensho Aoki, Naohiro Takahashi, Takuya Akiba

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How well do AI systems perform in algorithm engineering for hard optimization problems in domains such as package-delivery routing, crew scheduling, factory production planning, and power-grid balancing? We introduce $\textit{ALE-Bench}$, a new benchmark for evaluating AI systems on score-based algorithmic programming contests. Drawing on real tasks from the AtCoder Heuristic Contests, ALE-Bench presents optimization problems that are computationally hard and admit no known exact solution. Unlike short-duration, pass/fail coding benchmarks, ALE-Bench encourages iterative solution refinement over long time horizons. Our software framework supports interactive agent architectures that leverage test-run feedback and visualizations. Our evaluation of frontier LLMs revealed that while they demonstrate high performance on specific problems, a notable gap remains compared to humans in terms of consistency across problems and long-horizon problem-solving capabilities. This highlights the need for this benchmark to foster future AI advancements.

Poster
PolarQuant: Leveraging Polar Transformation for Key Cache Quantization and Decoding Acceleration

Songhao Wu, Ang Lv, Xiao Feng, Yufei Zhang, Xun Zhang, Guojun Yin, Wei Lin, Rui Yan

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The increasing demand for long-context generation has made the KV cache in large language models a bottleneck in memory consumption. Quantizing the cache to lower bit widths is an effective way to reduce memory costs; however, previous methods struggle with key cache quantization due to outliers, resulting in suboptimal performance. We propose a novel quantization approach PolarQuant, which provides a new perspective for key cache quantization and efficiently addresses the outlier dilemma. We observe that the distribution of the key states reveals well-structured patterns under polar transformation. Outliers generally appear in only one of the two dimensions, which are rotated together by a specific angle when rotary position embeddings are applied. When represented as two-dimensional vectors, these dimensions exhibit well-organized patterns, with radii and angles smoothly distributed in polar space. This alleviates the channel-wise outliers, making them well-suited for key cache quantization. PolarQuant divides key vectors into groups of two-dimensional sub-vectors, encoding them as the quantized radius and the polar angle, rather than quantizing original key vectors directly. PolarQuant achieves the superior efficiency in KV cache quantization and accelerates the decoding process by turning the query-key inner product into a table lookup, all while maintaining the downstream performance of full-precision models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ericshwu/PolarQuant.

Poster
Unveiling the Compositional Ability Gap in Vision-Language Reasoning Model

Tianle Li, Jihai Zhang, Yongming Rao, Yu Cheng

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While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong reasoning capabilities utilizing reinforcement learning (RL) with verifiable reward, whether large vision-language models (VLMs) can directly inherit such capabilities through similar post-training strategies remains underexplored. In this work, we conduct a systematic compositional probing study to evaluate whether current VLMs trained with RL or other post-training strategies can compose capabilities across modalities or tasks under out-of-distribution conditions. We design a suite of diagnostic tasks that train models on unimodal tasks or isolated reasoning skills, and evaluate them on multimodal, compositional variants requiring skill integration. Through comparisons between supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and RL-trained models, we identify three key findings: (1) RL-trained models consistently outperform SFT on compositional generalization, demonstrating better integration of learned skills; (2) although VLMs achieve strong performance on individual tasks, they struggle to generalize compositionally under cross-modal and cross-task scenarios, revealing a significant gap in current training strategies; (3) enforcing models to explicitly describe visual content before reasoning (e.g., caption-before-thinking), along with rewarding progressive vision-to-text grounding, yields notable gains. It highlights two essential ingredients for improving compositionality in VLMs: visual-to-text alignment and accurate visual grounding. Our findings shed light on the current limitations of RL-based reasoning VLM training and provide actionable insights toward building models that reason compositionally across modalities and tasks.

Poster
MindGYM: What Matters in Question Synthesis for Thinking-Centric Fine-Tuning?

Zhe Xu, Daoyuan Chen, Zhenqing Ling, Yaliang Li, Ying Shen

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Large foundation models face challenges in acquiring transferable, structured thinking abilities, especially when supervised with rigid templates or crowd-annotated instruction datasets. Unlike prior approaches, we focus on a thinking-centric data synthesis paradigm that enables models to evolve through self-generated, cognitively guided data. We propose MindGYM, a structured and scalable framework for question synthesis, composed of: (1) Cognitive Thinking Process Injection, which infuses high-level reasoning objectives to shape the model’s synthesis behavior; (2) Seed Single-Hop Question Synthesis, generating atomic questions from diverse semantic types to encourage broader thinking; and (3) Challenging Multi-Hop QA Synthesis, composing more complex multi-hop questions based on QA seeds for deeper reasoning. Detailed analysis shows that synthetic data generated by our method achieves 16.7% higher average quality and 67.91% lower quality variance compared to baseline sources, highlighting that both high-quality and self-contained data are essential for effective, thinking-oriented fine-tuning. MindGYM improves performance on six reasoning benchmarks, achieving gains of up to 16% on MathVision using only 400 data samples, and generalizable improvements across different model sizes and architectures. MindGYM underscores the viability of self-challenging mechanisms in refining large model capabilities while minimizing human intervention and resource demands. Code and data are released to promote data-centric research into self-evolving foundation models driven by their internal reasoning capabilities.

Poster
Rethinking Gradient Step Denoiser: Towards Truly Pseudo-Contractive Operator

Shuchang Zhang, Yaoyun Zeng, Kangkang Deng, Hongxia Wang

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Learning pseudo-contractive denoisers is a fundamental challenge in the theoretical analysis of Plug-and-Play (PnP) methods and the Regularization by Denoising (RED) framework. While spectral methods attempt to address this challenge using the power iteration method, they fail to guarantee the truly pseudo-contractive property and suffer from high computational complexity. In this work, we rethink gradient step (GS) denoisers and establish a theoretical connection between GS denoisers and pseudo-contractive operators. We show that GS denoisers, with the gradients of convex potential functions parameterized by input convex neural networks (ICNNs), can achieve truly pseudo-contractive properties. Furthermore, we integrate the learned truly pseudo-contractive denoiser into the RED-PRO (RED via fixed-point projection) model, definitely ensuring convergence in terms of both iterative sequences and objective functions. Extensive numerical experiments confirm that the learned GS denoiser satisfies the truly pseudo-contractive property and, when integrated into RED-PRO, provides a favorable trade-off between interpretability and empirical performance on inverse problems.

Poster
Graph-KV: Breaking Sequence via Injecting Structural Biases into Large Language Models

Haoyu Peter Wang, Peihao Wang, Mufei Li, Shikun Liu, Siqi Miao, Zhangyang Wang, Pan Li

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Modern large language models (LLMs) are inherently auto-regressive, requiring input to be serialized into flat sequences regardless of their structural dependencies. This serialization hinders the model’s ability to leverage structural inductive biases, especially in tasks such as retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and reasoning on data with native graph structures, where inter-segment dependencies are crucial. We introduce Graph-KV with the potential to overcome this limitation. Graph-KV leverages the KV-cache of text segments as condensed representations and governs their interaction through structural inductive biases. In this framework, ''target'' segments selectively attend only to the KV-caches of their designated ''source'' segments, rather than all preceding segments in a serialized sequence. This approach induces a graph-structured block mask, sparsifying attention and enabling a message-passing-like step within the LLM. Furthermore, strategically allocated positional encodings for source and target segments reduce positional bias and context window consumption. We evaluate Graph-KV across three scenarios: (1) seven RAG benchmarks spanning direct inference, multi-hop reasoning, and long-document understanding; (2) Arxiv-QA, a novel academic paper QA task with full-text scientific papers structured as citation ego-graphs; and (3) paper topic classification within a citation network. By effectively reducing positional bias and harnessing structural inductive biases, Graph-KV substantially outperforms baselines, including standard costly sequential encoding, across various settings.

Poster
Slow Transition to Low-Dimensional Chaos in Heavy-Tailed Recurrent Neural Networks

Yi Xie, Stefan Mihalas, Łukasz Kuśmierz

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Growing evidence suggests that synaptic weights in the brain follow heavy-tailed distributions, yet most theoretical analyses of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) assume Gaussian connectivity. We systematically study the activity of RNNs with random weights drawn from biologically plausible Lévy alpha-stable distributions. While mean-field theory for the infinite system predicts that the quiescent state is always unstable---implying ubiquitous chaos---our finite-size analysis reveals a sharp transition between quiescent and chaotic dynamics. We theoretically predict the gain at which the finite system transitions from quiescent to chaotic dynamics, and validate it through simulations. Compared to Gaussian networks, finite heavy-tailed RNNs exhibit a broader gain regime near the edge of chaos, namely, a slow transition to chaos. However, this robustness comes with a tradeoff: heavier tails reduce the Lyapunov dimension of the attractor, indicating lower effective dimensionality. Our results reveal a biologically aligned tradeoff between the robustness of dynamics near the edge of chaos and the richness of high-dimensional neural activity. By analytically characterizing the transition point in finite-size networks---where mean-field theory breaks down---we provide a tractable framework for understanding dynamics in realistically sized, heavy-tailed neural circuits.

Poster
PartNeXt: A Next-Generation Dataset for Fine-Grained and Hierarchical 3D Part Understanding

Penghao Wang, Yiyang He, Xin Lv, Yukai Zhou, Lan Xu, Jingyi Yu, Jiayuan Gu

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Understanding objects at the level of their constituent parts is fundamental to advancing computer vision, graphics, and robotics. While datasets like PartNet have driven progress in 3D part understanding, their reliance on untextured geometries and expert-dependent annotation limits scalability and usability. We introduce PartNeXt, a next-generation dataset addressing these gaps with over 23000 high-quality, textured 3D models annotated with fine-grained, hierarchical part labels across 50 categories. We benchmark PartNeXt on two tasks: (1) class-agnostic part segmentation, where state-of-the-art methods (e.g., PartField, SAMPart3D) struggle with fine-grained and leaf-level parts, and (2) 3D part-centric question answering, a new benchmark for 3D-LLMs that reveals significant gaps in open-vocabulary part grounding. Additionally, training Point-SAM on PartNeXt yields substantial gains over PartNet, underscoring the dataset’s superior quality and diversity. By combining scalable annotation, texture-aware labels, and multi-task evaluation, PartNeXt opens new avenues for research in structured 3D understanding.

Poster
How Does Label Noise Gradient Descent Improve Generalization in the Low SNR Regime?

Wei Huang, Andi Han, Yujin Song, Yilan Chen, Denny Wu, Difan Zou, Taiji Suzuki

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The capacity of deep learning models is often large enough to both learn the underlying statistical signal and overfit to noise in the training set. This noise memorization can be harmful especially for data with a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), leading to poor generalization. Inspired by prior observations that label noise provides implicit regularization that improves generalization, in this work, we investigate whether introducing label noise to the gradient updates can enhance the test performance of neural network (NN) in the low SNR regime. Specifically, we consider training a two-layer NN with a simple label noise gradient descent (GD) algorithm, in an idealized signal-noise data setting. We prove that adding label noise during training suppresses noise memorization, preventing it from dominating the learning process; consequently, label noise GD enjoys rapid signal growth while the overfitting remains controlled, thereby achieving good generalization despite the low SNR. In contrast, we also show that NN trained with standard GD tends to overfit to noise in the same low SNR setting and establish a non-vanishing lower bound on its test error, thus demonstrating the benefit of introducing label noise in gradient-based training.

Poster
SeasonBench-EA: A Multi-Source Benchmark for Seasonal Prediction and Numerical Model Post-Processing in East Asia

Mengxuan Chen, Guowen Li, Zou Ziheng, Fang Wang, Jinxiao Zhang, Runmin Dong, Juepeng Zheng, Haohuan Fu

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Seasonal-scale climate prediction plays a critical role in supporting agricultural planning, disaster prevention, and long-term decision making. In particular, reliable forecasts issued 1-6 months in advance are essential for early warning of flood and drought risks associated with precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon season. However, while the use of machine learning techniques has advanced rapidly in weather and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, partly driven by the availability of benchmark datasets, their application to seasonal-scale prediction remains limited. Existing seasonal prediction primarily relies on ensemble forecasts from numerical models, which, while physically grounded, are subject to biases and uncertainties at long lead times. Motivated by these challenges, we propose SeasonBench-EA, a benchmark dataset for seasonal prediction in East Asia region. It features multi-resolution, multi-source data with both regional and global coverage, integrating ERA5 reanalysis data and ensemble forecasts from multiple leading forecast centers. Beyond key atmospheric fields, the dataset also includes boundary-related variables, such as ocean state, soil and solar radiation, that are essential for capturing seasonal-scale atmospheric variability. Two tasks are defined and evaluated: 1) machine learning-based seasonal prediction using ERA5 reanalysis, and 2) post-processing of seasonal forecasts from numerical model ensembles. A suite of deterministic and probabilistic metrics is provided for tasks evaluation, along with a hindcast assessment focused on precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon, aligned with model evaluation protocols used in operations. By offering a unified data and evaluation framework, SeasonBench-EA aims to promote the development and application of data-driven methods for seasonal prediction, a challenging yet highly impactful task with board implications for society and public well-being. Our benchmark is available at https://github.com/SauryChen/SeasonBench-EA.

Poster