NeurIPS 2025 Papers

Forecasting real-world time series requires modeling both short-term fluctuations and long-term evolutions, as these signals typically exhibit multiscale temporal structures. A core challenge lies in reconciling such dynamics: high-frequency seasonality demands local precision, while low-frequency trends require global robustness. However, most existing methods adopt a unified loss function across all temporal components, overlooking their structural differences. This misalignment often causes overfitting to seasonal noise or underfitting of long-term trends, leading to suboptimal forecasting performance. To address this issue, we propose a Physics-guided Multiscale Loss Framework (PMLF) that decomposes time series into seasonal and trend components and assigns component-specific objectives grounded in the distinct energy responses of oscillatory and drift dynamics. Specifically, we assign a quadratic loss to seasonal components, reflecting the quadratic potential energy profile of molecular vibration, while a logarithmic loss is used for trend components to capture the sublinear energy profile of molecular drift under sustained external forces. Furthermore, we introduce a softmax-based strategy that adaptively balances the unequal energetic responses of these two physical processes. Experiments on different public benchmarks show that PMLF improves the performance of diverse baselines, demonstrating the effectiveness of physics-guided loss design in modeling structural heterogeneity in time series forecasting.

In Bayesian persuasion, an informed sender strategically discloses information to a receiver so as to persuade them to undertake desirable actions. Recently, Markov persuasion processes (MPPs) have been introduced to capture sequential scenarios where a sender faces a stream of myopic receivers in a Markovian environment. The MPPs studied so far in the literature suffer from issues that prevent them from being fully operational in practice, e.g., they assume that the sender knows receivers' rewards. We fix such issues by addressing MPPs where the sender has no knowledge about the environment. We design a learning algorithm for the sender, working with partial feedback. We prove that its regret with respect to an optimal information-disclosure policy grows sublinearly in the number of episodes, as it is the case for the loss in persuasiveness cumulated while learning. Moreover, we provide lower bounds for our setting matching the guarantees of our algorithm.

Accelerating inverse design of crystalline materials with generative models has significant implications for a range of technologies. Unlike other atomic systems, 3D crystals are invariant to discrete groups of isometries called the space groups. Crucially, these space group symmetries are known to heavily influence materials properties. We propose SGEquiDiff, a crystal generative model which naturally handles space group constraints with space group invariant likelihoods. SGEquiDiff consists of an SE(3)-invariant, telescoping discrete sampler of crystal lattices; permutation-invariant, transformer-based autoregressive sampling of Wyckoff positions, elements, and numbers of symmetrically unique atoms; and space group equivariant diffusion of atomic coordinates. We show that space group equivariant vector fields automatically live in the tangent spaces of the Wyckoff positions. SGEquiDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmark datasets as assessed by quantitative proxy metrics and quantum mechanical calculations. Our code is available at https://github.com/rees-c/sgequidiff.

We formalize and analyze the trade-off between backdoor-based watermarks and adversarial defenses, framing it as an interactive protocol between a verifier and a prover. While previous works have primarily focused on this trade-off, our analysis extends it by identifying transferable attacks as a third, counterintuitive but necessary option. Our main result shows that for all learning tasks, at least one of the three exists: a _watermark_, an _adversarial defense_, or a _transferable attack_. By transferable attack, we refer to an efficient algorithm that generates queries indistinguishable from the data distribution and capable of fooling _all_ efficient defenders. Using cryptographic techniques, specifically fully homomorphic encryption, we construct a transferable attack and prove its necessity in this trade-off. Finally, we show that tasks of bounded VC-dimension allow adversarial defenses against all attackers, while a subclass allows watermarks secure against fast adversaries.

The integration of differential equations with neural networks has created powerful tools for modeling complex dynamics effectively across diverse machine learning applications. While standard integer-order neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have shown considerable success, they are limited in their capacity to model systems with memory effects and historical dependencies. Fractional calculus offers a mathematical framework capable of addressing this limitation, yet most current fractional neural networks use static memory weightings that cannot adapt to input-specific contextual requirements. This paper proposes a generalized neural Fractional Attention Differential Equation (FADE), which combines the memory-retention capabilities of fractional calculus with contextual learnable attention mechanisms. Our approach replaces fixed kernel functions in fractional operators with neural attention kernels that adaptively weight historical states based on their contextual relevance to current predictions. This allows our framework to selectively emphasize important temporal dependencies while filtering less relevant historical information. Our theoretical analysis establishes solution boundedness, problem well-posedness, and numerical equation solver convergence properties of the proposed model. Furthermore, through extensive evaluation on tasks such as fluid flow, graph learning problems and spatio-temporal traffic flow forecasting, we demonstrate that our adaptive attention-based fractional framework outperforms both integer-order neural ODE models and existing fractional approaches. The results confirm that our framework provides superior modeling capacity for complex dynamics with varying temporal dependencies. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/cuiwjTech/NeurIPS2025_FADE}.

Small language models (SLMs) struggle to learn complex reasoning behaviors, especially when high-quality traces are scarce or difficult to learn from. A typical approach for training such models combines a supervised fine-tuning (SFT) stage, often to distill reasoning capabilities from a larger model, followed by a reinforcement learning (RL) stage such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). In this paper, we investigate the fundamental limitations of this SFT + RL paradigm and propose methods to overcome them. Using a toy student-expert model over Markov chains, we demonstrate that the SFT + RL strategy can fail completely when (1) the expert's traces are too difficult for the small model to express, or (2) the small model's initialization achieves exponentially sparse rewards as task complexity grows. To address these, we introduce BREAD, a GRPO variant that bridges SFT and RL via partial expert guidance and branch rollouts. When self-generated traces fail, BREAD adaptively inserts short expert prefixes/hints, allowing the small model to complete the rest of the reasoning path, and ensuring that each update includes at least one successful trace. This mechanism both densifies the reward signal and induces a natural learning curriculum. BREAD requires fewer than 40\% of ground-truth traces, consistently outperforming standard GRPO while speeding up the training by about 3$\times$. Importantly, we find that BREAD helps the model solve problems that are otherwise unsolvable by the SFT + RL strategy, highlighting how branch rollouts and expert guidance can aid SLM reasoning.

We establish the universal approximation capability of single-layer, single-head self- and cross-attention mechanisms with minimal attached structures. Our key insight is to interpret single-head attention as an input domain-partition mechanism that assigns distinct values to subregions. This allows us to engineer the attention weights such that this assignment imitates the target function. Building on this, we prove that a single self-attention layer, preceded by sum-of-linear transformations, is capable of approximating any continuous function on a compact domain under the $L_\infty$-norm. Furthermore, we extend this construction to approximate any Lebesgue integrable function under $L_p$-norm for $1\leq p <\infty$. Lastly, we also extend our techniques and show that, for the first time, single-head cross-attention achieves the same universal approximation guarantees.

Model editing offers a promising paradigm for efficiently and precisely updating knowledge in pre-trained transformers without costly retraining. While extensively studied in language models (LMs), model editing for vision transformers (ViTs) remains underexplored. Existing methods typically adapt LM-based techniques by modifying the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) modules, overlooking the unique characteristics of ViTs. In this work, we show that ViT predictions are more strongly influenced by the multi-head self-attention (MSA) modules than by the MLPs. Building on this observation, we propose a two-stage framework for editing ViTs. First, we identify which attention heads are most responsible for incorrect predictions. Next, we selectively remove the corresponding features to correct the model’s prediction. To further balance error correction with predictive stability on unrelated data, we learn a projection matrix that refines the image representations. Extensive experiments across multiple real-world datasets and model editing benchmarks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing model editing methods for ViTs, achieving superior generalization and locality. Our code is available at https://github.com/shanghxy/Model-editing-for-vision-transformers.

Transformers have emerged as a powerful neural network architecture capable of tackling a wide range of learning tasks. In this work, we provide a theoretical analysis of their ability to automatically extract structure from data in an unsupervised setting. In particular, we demonstrate their suitability for clustering when the input data is generated from a Gaussian mixture model. To this end, we study a simplified two-head attention layer and define a population risk whose minimization with unlabeled data drives the head parameters to align with the true mixture centroids.

Brain-inspired spiking neural networks (SNNs) provide energy-efficient computation through event-driven processing. However, the shared weights across multiple timesteps lead to serious temporal feature redundancy, limiting both efficiency and performance. This issue is further aggravated when processing static images due to the duplicated input. To mitigate this problem, we propose a parameter-free and plug-and-play module named Mutual Information-based Temporal Redundancy Quantification and Reduction (MI-TRQR), constructing energy-efficient SNNs. Specifically, Mutual Information (MI) is properly introduced to quantify redundancy between discrete spike features at different timesteps on two spatial scales: pixel (local) and the entire spatial features (global). Based on the multi-scale redundancy quantification, we apply a probabilistic masking strategy to remove redundant spikes. The final representation is subsequently recalibrated to account for the spike removal. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our MI-TRQR achieves sparser spiking firing, higher energy efficiency, and better performance concurrently with different SNN architectures in tasks of neuromorphic data classification, static data classification, and time-series forecasting. Notably, MI-TRQR increases accuracy by \textbf{1.7\%} on CIFAR10-DVS with 4 timesteps while reducing energy cost by \textbf{37.5\%}. Our codes are available at https://github.com/dfxue/MI-TRQR.

Motivated by real-life supply chain management, we study a repeated newsvendor problem in which the learner is a mediator that facilitates trades between suppliers and retailers in a sequence of supplier/retailer interactions. At each time step, a new supplier and retailer join the mediator's platform with a private production cost and utility function, respectively, and the platform proposes a unitary trading price. The supplier accepts the proposed price if it meets or exceeds their unitary production cost and communicates their decision to the platform; simultaneously, the retailer decides the quantity to purchase at the proposed trading price based on their private utility function and sends their decision to the platform. If the supplier accepts the trading price, the transaction proceeds, and the retailer purchases their chosen quantity of units, paying the product of this quantity and the trading price to the supplier. The mediator's objective is to maximize social welfare. We design an online mediator's pricing strategy that features sharp regret rates under some natural assumptions, and we investigate the necessity of these assumptions, proving that relaxing any of them leads to unlearnability.

Stellarators are magnetic confinement devices under active development to deliver steady-state carbon-free fusion energy. Their design involves a high-dimensional, constrained optimization problem that requires expensive physics simulations and significant domain expertise. Recent advances in plasma physics and open-source tools have made stellarator optimization more accessible. However, broader community progress is currently bottlenecked by the lack of standardized optimization problems with strong baselines and datasets that enable data-driven approaches, particularly for quasi-isodynamic (QI) stellarator configurations, considered as a promising path to commercial fusion due to their inherent resilience to current-driven disruptions. Here, we release an open dataset of diverse QI-like stellarator plasma boundary shapes, paired with their ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibria and performance metrics. We generated this dataset by sampling a variety of QI fields and optimizing corresponding stellarator plasma boundaries. We introduce three optimization benchmarks of increasing complexity: (1) a single-objective geometric optimization problem, (2) a "simple-to-build" QI stellarator, and (3) a multi-objective ideal-MHD stable QI stellarator that investigates trade-offs between compactness and coil simplicity. For every benchmark, we provide reference code, evaluation scripts, and strong baselines based on classical optimization techniques. Finally, we show how learned models trained on our dataset can efficiently generate novel, feasible configurations without querying expensive physics oracles. By openly releasing the dataset (https://huggingface.co/datasets/proxima-fusion/constellaration) along with benchmark problems and baselines (https://github.com/proximafusion/constellaration), we aim to lower the entry barrier for optimization and machine learning researchers to engage in stellarator design and to accelerate cross-disciplinary progress toward bringing fusion energy to the grid.

We propose L2T, an advancement of visual instruction tuning (VIT). While VIT equips Multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) with promising multimodal capabilities, the current design choices for VIT often result in overfitting and shortcut learning, potentially degrading performance. This gap arises from an overemphasis on instruction-following abilities, while neglecting the proactive understanding of visual information. Inspired by this, L2T adopts a simple yet effective approach by incorporating the loss function into both the instruction and response sequences. It seamlessly expands the training data, and regularizes the MLLMs from overly relying on language priors. Based on this merit, L2T achieves a significant relative improvement of up to 9% on comprehensive multimodal benchmarks, requiring no additional training data and incurring negligible computational overhead. Surprisingly, L2T attains exceptional fundamental visual capabilities, yielding up to an 18% improvement in captioning performance, while simultaneously alleviating hallucination in MLLMs. Github code: https://github.com/Feng-Hong/L2T.

Data valuation techniques quantify each training example's contribution to model performance, providing a principled basis for data cleaning, acquisition, and selection. Existing valuation methods remain inadequate: \emph{model-based} techniques depend on a single fitted model and inherit its biases, while \emph{algorithm-based} approaches like Data Shapley scale poorly due to their need to train multiple models. Recent work has proposed model-agnostic alternatives based on Wasserstein distance between the training set and a clean reference set, but exact computation is expensive and approximations often misrank examples. We introduce KAIROS, a model-agnostic framework that values examples by their contribution to the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) between the training set and a clean reference distribution. Unlike Wasserstein methods, MMD admits a closed-form solution that requires no approximations and is scalable to large datasets. Additionally, KAIROS enables efficient online valuation: adding a new batch of $m$ examples requires only $O(mN)$ computation to update all scores, compared to $O(N^2)$ in prior work where $N$ is the training set size. Empirical evaluations on noise, mislabeling, and poisoning benchmarks show that KAIROS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both accuracy and runtime. On ImageNet, KAIROS achieves up to 15 $\times$ speedup over the fastest baseline while maintaining superior data valuation quality. Our results demonstrate that model-agnostic methods can match or exceed model-based approaches in performance while scaling to large datasets.

An established measure of the expressive power of a given ReLU neural network is the number of linear regions into which it partitions the input space. There exist many different, non-equivalent definitions of what a linear region actually is. We systematically assess which papers use which definitions and discuss how they relate to each other. We then analyze the computational complexity of counting the number of such regions for the various definitions. Generally, this turns out to be an intractable problem. We prove NP- and \#P-hardness results already for networks with one hidden layer and strong hardness of approximation results for two or more hidden layers. Finally, on the algorithmic side, we demonstrate that counting linear regions can at least be achieved in polynomial space for some common definitions.

Understanding molecules is key to understanding organisms and driving advances in drug discovery, requiring interdisciplinary knowledge across chemistry and biology. Although large molecular language models have achieved notable success in task transfer, they often struggle to accurately analyze molecular features due to limited knowledge and reasoning capabilities. To address this issue, we present Mol-LLaMA, a large molecular language model that grasps the general knowledge centered on molecules and exhibits explainability and reasoning ability. To this end, we design key data types that encompass the fundamental molecular features, taking into account the essential abilities for molecular reasoning. Further, to improve molecular understanding, we propose a module that integrates complementary information from different molecular encoders, leveraging the distinct advantages of molecular representations. Our experimental results demonstrate that Mol-LLaMA is capable of comprehending the general features of molecules and providing informative responses, implying its potential as a general-purpose assistant for molecular analysis. Our project page is at https://mol-llama.github.io/.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have exhibited impressive capabilities across diverse image understanding tasks, but still struggle in settings that require reasoning over extended sequences of camera frames from a video. This limits their utility in embodied settings, which require reasoning over long frame sequences from a continuous stream of visual input at each moment of a task attempt. To address this limitation, we propose ROVER (Reasoning Over VidEo Recursively), a framework that enables the model to recursively decompose long-horizon video trajectories into segments corresponding to shorter subtasks within the trajectory. In doing so, ROVER facilitates more focused and accurate reasoning over temporally localized frame sequences without losing global context. We evaluate ROVER, implemented using an in-context learning approach, on diverse OpenX Embodiment videos and on a new dataset derived from RoboCasa that consists of 543 videos showing both expert and perturbed non-expert trajectories across 27 manipulation tasks. ROVER outperforms strong baselines across three video reasoning tasks: task progress estimation, frame-level natural language reasoning, and video question answering. We observe that, by reducing the number of frames the model reasons over at each timestep, ROVER mitigates model hallucinations, especially during unexpected or non-optimal moments of a trajectory. In addition, by enabling the implementation of a subtask-specific sliding context window, ROVER's time complexity scales linearly with video length, an asymptotic improvement over baselines.

Given a single in-the-wild human photo, it remains a challenging task to reconstruct a high-fidelity 3D human model. Existing methods face difficulties including a) the varying body proportions captured by in-the-wild human images; b) diverse personal belongings within the shot; and c) ambiguities in human postures and inconsistency in human textures. In addition, the scarcity of high-quality human data intensifies the challenge. To address these problems, we propose a Generalizable image-to-3D huMAN reconstruction framework, dubbed GeneMAN, building upon a comprehensive multi-source collection of high-quality human data, including 3D scans, multi-view videos, single photos, and our generated synthetic human data. GeneMAN encompasses three key modules. 1) Without relying on parametric human models (e.g., SMPL), GeneMAN first trains a human-specific text-to-image diffusion model and a view-conditioned diffusion model, serving as GeneMAN 2D human prior and 3D human prior for reconstruction, respectively. 2) With the help of the pretrained human prior models, the Geometry Initialization-&-Sculpting pipeline is leveraged to recover high-quality 3D human geometry given a single image. 3) To achieve high-fidelity 3D human textures, GeneMAN employs the Multi-Space Texture Refinement pipeline, consecutively refining textures in the latent and the pixel spaces. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that GeneMAN could generate high-quality 3D human models from a single image input, outperforming prior state-of-the-art methods. Notably, GeneMAN could reveal much better generalizability in dealing with in-the-wild images, often yielding high-quality 3D human models in natural poses with common items, regardless of the body proportions in the input images.

Foundation models trained on large-scale de-identified electronic health records (EHRs) hold promise for clinical applications. However, their capacity to memorize patient information raises important privacy concerns. In this work, we introduce a suite of black-box evaluation tests to assess privacy-related memorization risks in foundation models trained on structured EHR data. Our framework includes methods for probing memorization at both the embedding and generative levels, and aims to distinguish between model generalization and harmful memorization in clinically relevant settings. We contextualize memorization in terms of its potential to compromise patient privacy, particularly for vulnerable subgroups. We validate our approach on a publicly available EHR foundation model and release an open-source toolkit to facilitate reproducible and collaborative privacy assessments in healthcare AI.