Variational Inference

Accurate estimation of background error (i.e., forecast error) distribution is critical for effective data assimilation (DA) in numerical weather prediction (NWP). In state-of-the-art operational DA systems, it is common to account for the temporal evolution of background errors by employing hybrid methods, which blend a static climatological covariance with a flow-dependent ensemble-derived component. While effective to some extent, these methods typically assume Gaussian-distributed errors and rely heavily on hand-crafted covariance structures and domain expertise, limiting their ability to capture the complex, non-Gaussian nature of atmospheric dynamics. In this work, we propose LoRA-EnVar, a novel hybrid ensemble variational DA algorithm that integrates low-rank adaptation (LoRA) into a deep generative modeling framework. We first learn a climatological background error distribution using a variational autoencoder (VAE) trained on historical data. To incorporate flow-dependent uncertainty, we introduce LoRA modules that efficiently adapt the learned distribution in response to flow-dependent ensemble perturbations. Our approach supports online finetuning, enabling dynamic updates of the background error distribution without catastrophic forgetting. We validate LoRA-EnVar in high-resolution assimilation settings using the FengWu forecast model and simulated observations from ERA5 reanalysis. Experimental results show that LoRA-EnVar significantly improves assimilation accuracy over models assuming static background error distribution and achieves comparable or better performance than full finetuning while reducing the number of trainable parameters by three orders of magnitude. This demonstrates the potential of parameter-efficient adaptation for scalable, non-Gaussian DA in operational meteorology.

Task vectors capture how a model changes during fine-tuning by recording the difference between pre-trained and task-specific weights. The composition of task vectors, a key operator in task arithmetic, enables models to integrate knowledge from multiple tasks without incurring significant additional inference costs. In this paper, we propose variational task vector composition (VTVC), where composition coefficients are taken as latent variables and estimated in a Bayesian inference framework. Unlike previous methods that operate at the task level, our framework focuses on sample-specific composition. Motivated by the observation of structural redundancy in task vectors, we introduce a Spike-and-Slab prior that promotes sparsity and aims to preserve the most informative components. To further address the high variance and sampling inefficiency in sparse, high-dimensional spaces, we develop a gated sampling mechanism that constructs a controllable posterior by filtering the composition coefficients based on both uncertainty and importance. This yields a more stable and interpretable variational framework by deterministically selecting reliable task components, reducing sampling variance while improving transparency and generalization. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art average performance across a diverse range of benchmarks, including image classification and natural language understanding. These findings highlight the practical value of our approach, offering a new, efficient, and effective framework for task vector composition.

We introduce a highly expressive yet distinctly tractable family for black-box variational inference (BBVI). Each member of this family is a weighted product of experts (PoE), and each weighted expert in the product is proportional to a multivariate $t$-distribution. These products of experts can model distributions with skew, heavy tails, and multiple modes, but to use them for BBVI, we must be able to sample from their densities. We show how to do this by reformulating these products of experts as latent variable models with auxiliary Dirichlet random variables. These Dirichlet variables emerge from a Feynman identity, originally developed for loop integrals in quantum field theory, that expresses the product of multiple fractions (or in our case, $t$-distributions) as an integral over the simplex. We leverage this simplicial latent space to draw weighted samples from these products of experts---samples which BBVI then uses to find the PoE that best approximates a target density. Given a collection of experts, we derive an iterative procedure to optimize the exponents that determine their geometric weighting in the PoE. At each iteration, this procedure minimizes a regularized Fisher divergence to match the scores of the variational and target densities at a batch of samples drawn from the current approximation. This minimization reduces to a convex quadratic program, and we prove under general conditions that these updates converge exponentially fast to a near-optimal weighting of experts. We conclude by evaluating this approach on a variety of synthetic and real-world target distributions.

Mean-field variational inference (VI), despite its scalability, is limited by the independence assumption, making it unsuitable for scenarios with correlated data instances. Existing structured VI methods either focus on correlations among latent dimensions which lack scalability for modeling instance-level correlations, or are restricted to simple first-order dependencies, limiting their expressiveness. In this paper, we propose High-order Tree-structured Variational Inference (HoT-VI), that explicitly models $k$-order instance-level correlations among latent variables. By expressing the global posterior through overlapping $k$-dimensional local marginals, our method enables efficient parameterized sampling via a sequential procedure. To ensure the validity of these marginals, we introduce a conditional correlation parameterization method that guarantees positive definiteness of their correlation matrices. We further extend our method with a tree-structured backbone to capture more flexible dependency patterns. Extensive experiments on time-series and graph-structured datasets demonstrate that modeling higher-order correlations leads to significantly improved posterior approximations and better performance across various downstream tasks.

Flow-based latent generative models such as Stable Diffusion 3 are able to generate images with remarkable quality, even enabling photorealistic text-to-image generation. Their impressive performance suggests that these models should also constitute powerful priors for inverse imaging problems, but that approach has not yet led to comparable fidelity. There are several key obstacles: (i) the data likelihood term is usually intractable; (ii) learned generative models cannot be directly conditioned on the distorted observations, leading to conflicting objectives between data likelihood and prior; and (iii) the reconstructions can deviate from the observed data. We present FLAIR, a novel, training-free variational framework that leverages flow-based generative models as prior for inverse problems. To that end, we introduce a variational objective for flow matching that is agnostic to the type of degradation, and combine it with deterministic trajectory adjustments to guide the prior towards regions which are more likely under the posterior. To enforce exact consistency with the observed data, we decouple the optimization of the data fidelity and regularization terms. Moreover, we introduce a time-dependent calibration scheme in which the strength of the regularization is modulated according to off-line accuracy estimates. Results on standard imaging benchmarks demonstrate that FLAIR consistently outperforms existing diffusion- and flow-based methods in terms of reconstruction quality and sample diversity. Source code is available at https://inverseflair.github.io/.

Contrastive learning has proven to be highly efficient and adaptable in shaping representation spaces across diverse modalities by pulling similar samples together and pushing dissimilar ones apart. However, two key limitations persist: (1) Without explicit regulation of the embedding distribution, semantically related instances can inadvertently be pushed apart unless complementary signals guide pair selection, and (2) excessive reliance on large in-batch negatives and tailored augmentations hinders generalization. To address these limitations, we propose Variational Supervised Contrastive Learning (VarCon), which reformulates supervised contrastive learning as variational inference over latent class variables and maximizes a posterior-weighted evidence lower bound (ELBO) that replaces exhaustive pair-wise comparisons for efficient class-aware matching and grants fine-grained control over intra-class dispersion in the embedding space. Trained exclusively on image data, our experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet-100, and ImageNet-1K show that VarCon (1) achieves state-of-the-art performance for contrastive learning frameworks, reaching 79.36% Top-1 accuracy on ImageNet-1K and 78.29% on CIFAR-100 with a ResNet-50 encoder while converging in just 200 epochs; (2) yields substantially clearer decision boundaries and semantic organization in the embedding space, as evidenced by KNN classification, hierarchical clustering results, and transfer-learning assessments; and (3) demonstrates superior performance in few-shot learning than supervised baseline and superior robustness across various augmentation strategies.

In Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), maintaining and updating belief distributions over possible underlying states provides a principled way to summarize action-observation history for effective decision-making under uncertainty. As environments grow more realistic, belief distributions develop complexity that standard mathematical models cannot accurately capture, creating a fundamental challenge in maintaining representational accuracy. Despite advances in deep learning and probabilistic modeling, existing POMDP belief approximation methods fail to accurately represent complex uncertainty structures such as high-dimensional, multi-modal belief distributions, resulting in estimation errors that lead to suboptimal agent behaviors. To address this challenge, we present ESCORT (Efficient Stein-variational and sliced Consistency-Optimized Representation for Temporal beliefs), a particle-based framework for capturing complex, multi-modal distributions in high-dimensional belief spaces. ESCORT extends SVGD with two key innovations: correlation-aware projections that model dependencies between state dimensions, and temporal consistency constraints that stabilize updates while preserving correlation structures. This approach retains SVGD's attractive-repulsive particle dynamics while enabling accurate modeling of intricate correlation patterns. Unlike particle filters prone to degeneracy or parametric methods with fixed representational capacity, ESCORT dynamically adapts to belief landscape complexity without resampling or restrictive distributional assumptions. We demonstrate ESCORT's effectiveness through extensive evaluations on both POMDP domains and synthetic multi-modal distributions of varying dimensionality, where it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of belief approximation accuracy and downstream decision quality.

Variational mean field approximations tend to struggle with contemporary overparametrized deep neural networks. Where a Bayesian treatment is usually associated with high-quality predictions and uncertainties, the practical reality has been the opposite, with unstable training, poor predictive power, and subpar calibration. Building upon recent work on reparametrizations of neural networks, we propose a simple variational family that considers two independent linear subspaces of the parameter space. These represent functional changes inside and outside the support of training data. This allows us to build a fully-correlated approximate posterior reflecting the overparametrization that tunes easy-to-interpret hyperparameters. We develop scalable numerical routines that maximize the associated evidence lower bound (ELBO) and sample from the approximate posterior. Empirically, we observe state-of-the-art performance across tasks, models, and datasets compared to a wide array of baseline methods. Our results show that approximate Bayesian inference applied to deep neural networks is far from a lost cause when constructing inference mechanisms that reflect the geometry of reparametrizations.

Variational Learning (VL) has recently gained popularity for training deep neural networks. Part of its empirical success can be explained by theories such as PAC-Bayes bounds, minimum description length and marginal likelihood, but little has been done to unravel the implicit regularization in play. Here, we analyze the implicit regularization of VL through the Edge of Stability (EoS) framework. EoS has previously been used to show that gradient descent can find flat solutions and we extend this result to show that VL can find even flatter solutions. This result is obtained by controlling the shape of the variational posterior as well as the number of posterior samples used during training. The derivation follows in a similar fashion as in the standard EoS literature for deep learning, by first deriving a result for a quadratic problem and then extending it to deep neural networks. We empirically validate these findings on a wide variety of large networks, such as ResNet and ViT, to find that the theoretical results closely match the empirical ones. Ours is the first work to analyze the EoS dynamics of~VL.

Developing effective multimodal fusion approaches has become increasingly essential in many real-world scenarios, such as health care and finance. The key challenge is how to preserve the feature expressiveness in each modality while learning cross-modal interactions. Previous approaches primarily focus on the cross-modal alignment, while over-emphasis on the alignment of marginal distributions of modalities may impose excess regularization and obstruct meaningful representations within each modality. The Dirichlet process (DP) mixture model is a powerful Bayesian non-parametric method that can amplify the most prominent features by its richer-gets-richer property, which allocates increasing weights to them. Inspired by this unique characteristic of DP, we propose a new DP-driven multimodal learning framework that automatically achieves an optimal balance between prominent intra-modal representation learning and cross-modal alignment. Specifically, we assume that each modality follows a mixture of multivariate Gaussian distributions and further adopt DP to calculate the mixture weights for all the components. This paradigm allows DP to dynamically allocate the contributions of features and select the most prominent ones, leveraging its richer-gets-richer property, thus facilitating multimodal feature fusion. Extensive experiments on several multimodal datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our model over other competitors. Ablation analysis further validates the effectiveness of DP in aligning modality distributions and its robustness to changes in key hyperparameters. Code is anonymously available at https://github.com/HKU-MedAI/DPMM.git

We introduce *NeuralSurv*, the first deep survival model to incorporate Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our non‑parametric, architecture‑agnostic framework flexibly captures time‑varying covariate–risk relationships in continuous time via a novel two‑stage data‑augmentation scheme, for which we establish theoretical guarantees. For efficient posterior inference, we introduce a mean‑field variational algorithm with coordinate‑ascent updates that scale linearly in model size. By locally linearizing the Bayesian neural network, we obtain full conjugacy and derive all coordinate updates in closed form. In experiments, *NeuralSurv* delivers superior calibration compared to state-of-the-art deep survival models, while matching or exceeding their discriminative performance across both synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets. Our results demonstrate the value of Bayesian principles in data‑scarce regimes by enhancing model calibration and providing robust, well‑calibrated uncertainty estimates for the survival function.

Many domain experts do not have the time or expertise to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to define a joint distribution over formal models, latent variables, and data. A posterior over latent variables follows by conditioning on observed data and integrating over formal models. This presents a challenging inference problem. We suggest an inference recipe that amounts to generating many formal models from the large language model, performing approximate inference on each, and then doing a weighted aver- age. This is justified and analyzed as a combination of self-normalized importance sampling, MCMC, and importance-weighted variational inference. Experimentally, this produces sensible predictions from only data and an informal problem description, without the need to specify a formal model.

The rise of API-only access to state-of-the-art LLMs highlights the need for effective black-box jailbreak methods to identify model vulnerabilities in real-world settings. Without a principled objective for gradient-based optimization, most existing approaches rely on genetic algorithms, which are limited by their initialization and dependence on manually curated prompt pools. Furthermore, these methods require individual optimization for each prompt, failing to provide a comprehensive characterization of model vulnerabilities. To address this gap, we introduce VERA: Variational infErence fRamework for jAilbreaking. VERA casts black-box jailbreak prompting as a variational inference problem, training a small attacker LLM to approximate the target LLM’s posterior over adversarial prompts. Once trained, the attacker can generate diverse, fluent jailbreak prompts for a target query without re-optimization. Experimental results show that VERA achieves strong performance across a range of target LLMs, highlighting the value of probabilistic inference for adversarial prompt generation.

Density estimation is essential for generative modeling, particularly with the rise of modern neural networks. While existing methods capture complex data distributions, they often lack interpretability and uncertainty quantification. Bayesian nonparametric methods, especially the \polya tree, offer a robust framework that addresses these issues by accurately capturing function behavior over small intervals. Traditional techniques like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) face high computational complexity and scalability limitations, hindering the use of Bayesian nonparametric methods in deep learning. To tackle this, we introduce the variational \polya tree (VPT) model, which employs stochastic variational inference to compute posterior distributions. This model provides a flexible, nonparametric Bayesian prior that captures latent densities and works well with stochastic gradient optimization. We also leverage the joint distribution likelihood for a more precise variational posterior approximation than traditional mean-field methods. We evaluate the model performance on both real data and images, and demonstrate its competitiveness with other state-of-the-art deep density estimation methods. We also explore its ability in enhancing interpretability and uncertainty quantification. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/howardchanth/var-polya-tree}.

Directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning is a central task in structure discovery and causal inference. Although the field has witnessed remarkable advances over the past few years, it remains statistically and computationally challenging to learn a single (point estimate) DAG from data, let alone provide uncertainty quantification. We address the difficult task of quantifying graph uncertainty by developing a Bayesian variational inference framework based on novel, provably valid distributions that have support directly on the space of sparse DAGs. These distributions, which we use to define our prior and variational posterior, are induced by a projection operation that maps an arbitrary continuous distribution onto the space of sparse weighted acyclic adjacency matrices. While this projection is combinatorial, it can be solved efficiently using recent continuous reformulations of acyclicity constraints. We empirically demonstrate that our method, \texttt{ProDAG}, can outperform state-of-the-art alternatives in both accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

Matrix factorization is a fundamental method in statistics and machine learning for inferring and summarizing structure in multivariate data. Modern data sets often come with "side information" of various forms (images, text, graphs) that can be leveraged to improve estimation of the underlying structure. However, existing methods that leverage side information are limited in the types of data they can incorporate, and they assume specific parametric models. Here, we introduce a novel method for this problem, *covariate-moderated empirical Bayes matrix factorization* (cEBMF). cEBMF is a modular framework that accepts any type of side information that is processable by a probabilistic model or a neural network. The cEBMF framework can accommodate different assumptions and constraints on the factors through the use of different priors, and it adapts these priors to the data. We demonstrate the benefits of cEBMF in simulations and in analyses of spatial transcriptomics and collaborative filtering data. A PyTorch-based implementation of cEBMF with flexible priors is available at https://github.com/william-denault/cebmf_torch.

The physical sciences are replete with dynamical systems that require the resolution of a wide range of length and time scales. This presents significant computational challenges since direct numerical simulation requires discretization at the finest relevant scales, leading to a high-dimensional state space. In this work, we propose an approach to learn stochastic multiscale models in the form of stochastic differential equations directly from observational data. Drawing inspiration from physics-based multiscale modeling approaches, we resolve the macroscale state on a coarse mesh while introducing a microscale latent state to explicitly model unresolved dynamics. We learn the parameters of the multiscale model using a simulator-free amortized variational inference method with a Product of Experts likelihood that enforces scale separation. We present detailed numerical studies to demonstrate that our learned multiscale models achieve superior predictive accuracy compared to under-resolved direct numerical simulation and closure-type models at equivalent resolution, as well as reduced-order modeling approaches.

Depth-from-Focus (DFF) enables precise depth estimation by analyzing focus cues across a stack of images captured at varying focal lengths. While recent learning-based approaches have advanced this field, they often struggle in complex scenes with fine textures or abrupt depth changes, where focus cues may become ambiguous or misleading. We present DualFocus, a novel DFF framework that leverages the focal stack’s unique gradient patterns induced by focus variation, jointly modeling focus changes over spatial and focal dimensions. Our approach introduces a variational formulation with dual constraints tailored to DFF: spatial constraints exploit gradient pattern changes across focus levels to distinguish true depth edges from texture artifacts, while focal constraints enforce unimodal, monotonic focus probabilities aligned with physical focus behavior. These inductive biases improve robustness and accuracy in challenging regions. Comprehensive experiments on four public datasets demonstrate that DualFocus consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both depth accuracy and perceptual quality.

Most expressive variational families---such as normalizing flows---lack practical convergence guarantees, as their theoretical assurances typically hold only at the intractable global optimum. In this work, we present a general recipe for constructing tuning-free, asymptotically exact variational flows on *arbitrary* state spaces from involutive MCMC kernels. The core methodological component is a novel representation of general involutive MCMC kernels as invertible, measure- preserving iterated random function systems, which act as the flow maps of our variational flows. This leads to three new variational families with provable total variation convergence. Our framework resolves key practical limitations of existing variational families with similar guarantees (e.g., MixFlows), while requiring substantially weaker theoretical assumptions. Finally, we demonstrate the competitive performance of our flows across tasks including posterior approximation, Monte Carlo estimates, and normalization constant estimation, outperforming or matching No-U-Turn sampler (NUTS) and black-box normalizing flows.

As large language models (LLMs) gain popularity in conducting prediction tasks in-context, understanding the sources of uncertainty in in-context learning becomes essential to ensuring reliability. The recent hypothesis of in-context learning performing predictive Bayesian inference opens the avenue for Bayesian uncertainty estimation, particularly for decomposing uncertainty into epistemic uncertainty due to lack of in-context data and aleatoric uncertainty inherent in the in-context prediction task. However, the decomposition idea remains under-explored due to the intractability of the latent parameter posterior from the underlying Bayesian model. In this work, we introduce a variational uncertainty decomposition framework for in-context learning without explicitly sampling from the latent parameter posterior, by optimising auxiliary inputs as probes to obtain an upper bound to the aleatoric uncertainty of an LLM's in-context learning procedure. Through experiments on synthetic and real-world tasks, we show quantitatively and qualitatively that the decomposed uncertainties obtained from our method exhibit desirable properties of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty.