Symbolic Regression

We study *gradient descent* (GD) with a constant stepsize for $\ell_2$-regularized logistic regression with linearly separable data. Classical theory suggests small stepsizes to ensure monotonic reduction of the optimization objective, achieving exponential convergence in $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\kappa)$ steps with $\kappa$ being the condition number. Surprisingly, we show that this can be *accelerated* to $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{\kappa})$ by simply using a large stepsize---for which the objective evolves *nonmonotonically*. The acceleration brought by large stepsizes extends to minimizing the population risk for separable distributions, improving on the best-known upper bounds on the number of steps to reach a near-optimum. Finally, we characterize the largest stepsize for the local convergence of GD, which also determines the global convergence in special scenarios. Our results extend the analysis of Wu et al. (2024) from convex settings with minimizers at infinity to strongly convex cases with finite minimizers.

A phenomenon known as ``Neural Collapse (NC)'' in deep classification tasks, in which the penultimate-layer features and the final classifiers exhibit an extremely simple geometric structure, has recently attracted considerable attention, with the expectation that it can deepen our understanding of how deep neural networks behave. The Unconstrained Feature Model (UFM) has been proposed to explain NC theoretically, and there emerges a growing body of work that extends NC to tasks other than classification and leverages it for practical applications. In this study, we investigate whether a similar phenomenon arises in deep Ordinal Regression (OR) tasks, via combining the cumulative link model for OR and UFM. We show that a phenomenon we call Ordinal Neural Collapse (ONC) indeed emerges and is characterized by the following three properties: (ONC1) all optimal features in the same class collapse to their within-class mean when regularization is applied; (ONC2) these class means align with the classifier, meaning that they collapse onto a one-dimensional subspace; (ONC3) the optimal latent variables (corresponding to logits or preactivations in classification tasks) are aligned according to the class order, and in particular, in the zero-regularization limit, a highly local and simple geometric relationship emerges between the latent variables and the threshold values. We prove these properties analytically within the UFM framework with fixed threshold values and corroborate them empirically across a variety of datasets. We also discuss how these insights can be leveraged in OR, highlighting the use of fixed thresholds.

We study realizable continual linear regression under random task orderings, a common setting for developing continual learning theory. In this setup, the worst-case expected loss after $k$ learning iterations admits a lower bound of $\Omega(1/k)$. However, prior work using an unregularized scheme has only established an upper bound of $O(1/k^{1/4})$, leaving a significant gap. Our paper proves that this gap can be narrowed, or even closed, using two frequently used regularization schemes: (1) explicit isotropic $\ell_2$ regularization, and (2) implicit regularization via finite step budgets. We show that these approaches, which are used in practice to mitigate forgetting, reduce to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on carefully defined surrogate losses. Through this lens, we identify a fixed regularization strength that yields a near-optimal rate of $O(\log k / k)$. Formalizing and analyzing a generalized variant of SGD for time-varying functions, we derive an increasing regularization strength schedule that provably achieves an optimal rate of $O(1/k)$. This suggests that schedules that increase the regularization coefficient or decrease the number of steps per task are beneficial, at least in the worst case.

Machine learning models are often brittle under distribution shift, i.e., when data distributions at test time differ from those during training. Understanding this failure mode is central to identifying and mitigating safety risks of mass adoption of machine learning. Here we analyze ridge regression under concept shift—a form of distribution shift in which the input-label relationship changes at test time. We derive an exact expression for prediction risk in the thermodynamic limit. Our results reveal nontrivial effects of concept shift on generalization performance, including a phase transition between weak and strong concept shift regimes and nonmonotonic data dependence of test performance even when double descent is absent. Our theoretical results are in good agreement with experiments based on transformers pretrained to solve linear regression; under concept shift, too long context length can be detrimental to generalization performance of next token prediction. Finally, experiments on MNIST and FashionMNIST further validate our theoretical predictions, suggesting these phenomena represent a fundamental aspect of learning under distribution shift.

Discovering symbolic Partial Differential Equation (PDE) from data is one of the most promising directions of modern scientific discovery. Effectively constructing an expressive yet concise hypothesis space and accurately evaluating expression values, however, remain challenging due to the exponential explosion with the spatial dimension and the noise in the measurements. To address these challenges, we propose the ABL-PDE approach that employs the Abductive Learning (ABL) framework to discover symbolic PDEs. By introducing a First-Order Logic (FOL) knowledge base, ABL-PDE can represent various PDEs, significantly constraining the hypothesis space without sacrificing expressive power, while also facilitating the incorporation of problem-specific knowledge. The proposed consistency optimization process establishes a synergistic interaction between the knowledge base and the neural network learning module, achieving robust structure identification, accurate coefficient estimation, and enhanced stability against hyperparameter variation. Experimental results on three benchmarks across different noise levels demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in PDE discovery.

Active learning (AL) reduces annotation costs by selecting the most informative samples based on both model sensitivity and predictive uncertainty. While sensitivity can be measured through parameter gradients in an unsupervised manner, predictive uncertainty can hardly be estimated without true labels especially for regression tasks, reducing the informativeness of actively selected samples. This paper proposes the concept of \textit{auxiliary data} to aid the uncertainty estimation for regression tasks. With detailed theoretical analysis, we reveal that auxiliary data, despite potential distribution shifts, can provide a promising uncertainty surrogate when properly weighted. Such finding inspires our design of AGBAL, a novel AL framework that recalibrates auxiliary data losses through density ratio weighting to obtain reliable uncertainty estimates for sample selection. Extensive experiments show that AGBAL consistently outperforms existing approaches without auxiliary data across diverse synthetic and real-world datasets.

Flexible docking, which predicts the binding conformations of both proteins and small molecules by modeling their structural flexibility, plays a vital role in structure-based drug design. Although recent generative approaches, particularly diffusion-based models, have shown promising results, they require iterative sampling to generate candidate structures and depend on separate scoring functions for pose selection. This leads to an inefficient pipeline that is difficult to scale in real-world drug discovery workflows. To overcome these challenges, we introduce FIGRDock, a fast and accurate flexible docking framework that understands complicated interactions between molecules and proteins with a regression-based approach. FIGRDock leverages initial docking poses from conventional tools to distill interaction-aware distance patterns, which serve as explicit structural conditions to directly guide the prediction of the final protein-ligand complex via a regression model. This one-shot inference paradigm enables rapid and precise pose prediction without reliance on multi-step sampling or external scoring stages. Experimental results show that FIGRDock achieves up to 100× faster inference than diffusion-based docking methods, while consistently surpassing them in accuracy across standard benchmarks. These results suggest that FIGRDock has the potential to offer a scalable and efficient solution for flexible docking, advancing the pace of structure-based drug discovery.

Gradient boosting is widely popular due to its flexibility and predictive accuracy. However, statistical inference and uncertainty quantification for gradient boosting remain challenging and under-explored. We propose a unified framework for statistical inference in gradient boosting regression. Our framework integrates dropout or parallel training with a recently proposed regularization procedure called Boulevard that allows for a central limit theorem (CLT) for boosting. With these enhancements, we surprisingly find that \textit{increasing} the dropout rate and the number of trees grown in parallel at each iteration substantially enhances signal recovery and overall performance. Our resulting algorithms enjoy similar CLTs, which we use to construct built-in confidence intervals, prediction intervals, and rigorous hypothesis tests for assessing variable importance in only $O(nd^2)$ time with the Nyström method. Numerical experiments verify the asymptotic normality and demonstrate that our algorithms perform well, do not require early stopping, interpolate between regularized boosting and random forests, and confirm the validity of their built-in statistical inference procedures.

Functional data play a pivotal role across science and engineering, yet their infinite-dimensional nature makes representation learning challenging. Conventional statistical models depend on pre-chosen basis expansions or kernels, limiting the flexibility of data-driven discovery, while many deep-learning pipelines treat functions as fixed-grid vectors, ignoring inherent continuity. In this paper, we introduce Functional Attention with a Mixture-of-Experts (FAME), an end-to-end, fully data-driven framework for function-on-function regression. FAME forms continuous attention by coupling a bidirectional neural controlled differential equation with MoE-driven vector fields to capture intra-functional continuity, and further fuses change to inter-functional dependencies via multi-head cross attention. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world functional regression benchmarks show that FAME achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and strong robustness to arbitrarily sampled discrete observations of functions.

Transfer learning is a key component of modern machine learning, enhancing the performance of target tasks by leveraging diverse data sources. Simultaneously, overparameterized models such as the minimum-$\ell_2$-norm interpolator (MNI) in high-dimensional linear regression have garnered significant attention for their remarkable generalization capabilities, a property known as *benign overfitting*. Despite their individual importance, the intersection of transfer learning and MNI remains largely unexplored. Our research bridges this gap by proposing a novel two-step Transfer MNI approach and analyzing its trade-offs. We characterize its non-asymptotic excess risk and identify conditions under which it outperforms the target-only MNI. Our analysis reveals *free-lunch* covariate shift regimes, where leveraging heterogeneous data yields the benefit of knowledge transfer at limited cost. To operationalize our findings, we develop a data-driven procedure to detect *informative* sources and introduce an ensemble method incorporating multiple informative Transfer MNIs. Finite-sample experiments demonstrate the robustness of our methods to model and data heterogeneity, confirming their advantage.

Quantifying uncertainty in deep regression models is important both for understanding the confidence of the model and for safe decision-making in high-risk domains. Existing approaches that yield prediction intervals overlook distributional information, neglecting the effect of multimodal or asymmetric distributions on decision-making. Similarly, full or approximated Bayesian methods, while yielding the predictive posterior density, demand major modifications to the model architecture and retraining. We introduce MCNF, a novel post hoc uncertainty quantification method that produces both prediction intervals and the full conditioned predictive distribution. MCNF operates on top of the underlying trained predictive model; thus, no predictive model retraining is needed. We provide experimental evidence that the MCNF-based uncertainty estimate is well calibrated, is competitive with state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, and provides richer information for downstream decision-making tasks

We study the task of noiseless linear regression under Gaussian covariates in the presence of additive oblivious contamination. Specifically, we are given i.i.d.\ samples from a distribution $(x, y)$ on $\mathbb R^d \times \mathbb R$ with $x \sim \mathcal N(0,I_d)$ and $y = x^\top \beta + z$, where $z$ is drawn from an unknown distribution that is independent of $x$. Moreover, $z$ satisfies $\mathbb P[z = 0] = \alpha>0$. The goal is to accurately recover the regressor $\beta$ to small $\ell_2$-error. Ignoring computational considerations, this problem is known to be solvable using $O(d/\alpha)$ samples. On the other hand, the best known polynomial-time algorithms require $\Omega(d/\alpha^2)$ samples. Here we provide formal evidence that the quadratic dependence in $1/\alpha$ is inherent for efficient algorithms. Specifically, we show that any efficient Statistical Query algorithm for this task requires VSTAT complexity at least $\tilde{\Omega}(d^{1/2}/\alpha^2)$.

Despite recent progress, continual learning still does not match the performance of batch training. To avoid catastrophic forgetting, we need to build compact memory of essential past knowledge, but no clear solution has yet emerged, even for shallow neural networks with just one or two layers. In this paper, we present a new method to build compact memory for logistic regression. Our method is based on a result by Khan and Swaroop [2021] who show the existence of optimal memory for such models. We formulate the search for the optimal memory as Hessian-matching and propose a probabilistic PCA method to estimate them. Our approach can drastically improve accuracy compared to Experience Replay. For instance, on Split-ImageNet, we get 60% accuracy compared to 30% obtained by replay with memory-size equivalent to 0.3% of the data size. Increasing the memory size to 2% further boosts the accuracy to 74%, closing the gap to the batch accuracy of 77.6% on this task. Our work opens a new direction for building compact memory that can also be useful in the future for continual deep learning.

Symbolic regression aims to discover concise, interpretable mathematical expressions that satisfy desired objectives, such as fitting data, posing a highly combinatorial optimization problem. While genetic programming has been the dominant approach, recent efforts have explored reinforcement learning methods for improving search efficiency. Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), with its ability to balance exploration and exploitation through guided search, has emerged as a promising technique for symbolic expression discovery. However, its traditional bandit strategies and sequential symbol construction often limit performance. In this work, we propose an improved MCTS framework for symbolic regression that addresses these limitations through two key innovations: (1) an extreme bandit allocation strategy tailored for identifying globally optimal expressions, with finite-time performance guarantees under polynomial reward decay assumptions; and (2) evolution-inspired state-jumping actions such as mutation and crossover, which enable non-local transitions to promising regions of the search space. These state-jumping actions also reshape the reward landscape during the search process, improving both robustness and efficiency. We conduct a thorough numerical study to the impact of these improvements and benchmark our approach against existing symbolic regression methods on a variety of datasets, including both ground-truth and black-box datasets. Our approach achieves competitive performance with state-of-the-art libraries in terms of recovery rate, attains favorable positions on the Pareto frontier of accuracy versus model complexity.

This work examines risk bounds for nonparametric distributional regression estimators. For convex-constrained distributional regression, general upper bounds are established for the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the worst-case mean squared error (MSE) across the domain. These theoretical results are applied to isotonic and trend filtering distributional regression, yielding convergence rates consistent with those for mean estimation. Furthermore, a general upper bound is derived for distributional regression under non-convex constraints, with a specific application to neural network-based estimators. Comprehensive experiments on both simulated and real data validate the theoretical contributions, demonstrating their practical effectiveness.

This paper examines the performance of ridge regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces in the presence of noise that exhibits a finite number of higher moments. We establish excess risk bounds consisting of subgaussian and polynomial terms based on the well known integral operator framework. The dominant subgaussian component allows to achieve convergence rates that have previously only been derived under subexponential noise—a prevalent assumption in related work from the last two decades. These rates are optimal under standard eigenvalue decay conditions, demonstrating the asymptotic robustness of regularized least squares against heavy- tailed noise. Our derivations are based on a Fuk–Nagaev inequality for Hilbert-space valued random variables.

This paper addresses the covariate shift problem in the context of nonparametric regression within reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs). Covariate shift arises in supervised learning when the input distributions of the training and test data differ, presenting additional challenges for learning. Although kernel methods have optimal statistical properties, their high computational demands in terms of time and, particularly, memory, limit their scalability to large datasets. To address this limitation, the main focus of this paper is to explore the trade-off between computational efficiency and statistical accuracy under covariate shift. We investigate the use of random projections where the hypothesis space consists of a random subspace within a given RKHS. Our results show that, even in the presence of covariate shift, significant computational savings can be achieved without compromising learning performance.

Decision-making models for individuals, particularly in high-stakes scenarios like vaccine uptake, often diverge from population optimal predictions. This gap arises from the uniqueness of the individual decision-making process, shaped by numerical attributes (e.g., cost, time) and linguistic influences (e.g., personal preferences and constraints). Developing upon Utility Theory and leveraging the textual-reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), this paper proposes an Adaptive Textual-symbolic Human-centric Reasoning framework (ATHENA) to address the optimal information integration. ATHENA uniquely integrates two stages: First, it discovers robust, group-level symbolic utility functions via LLM-augmented symbolic discovery; Second, it implements individual-level semantic adaptation, creating personalized semantic templates guided by the optimal utility to model personalized choices. Validated on real-world travel mode and vaccine choice tasks, ATHENA consistently outperforms utility-based, machine learning, and other LLM-based models, lifting F1 score by at least 6.5\% over the strongest cutting-edge models. Further, ablation studies confirm that both stages of ATHENA are critical and complementary, as removing either clearly degrades overall predictive performance. By organically integrating symbolic utility modeling and semantic adaptation, ATHENA provides a new scheme for modeling human-centric decisions. The project page can be found at https://yibozh.github.io/Athena.

This work introduces a novel approach, Pairwise Epistemic Estimators (PairEpEsts), for epistemic uncertainty estimation in ensemble models for regression tasks using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). By utilizing the pairwise distances between model components, PaiDEs establish bounds on entropy. We leverage this capability to enhance the performance of Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD). Notably, unlike sample-based Monte Carlo estimators, PairEpEsts can estimate epistemic uncertainty up to 100 times faster and demonstrate superior performance in higher dimensions. To validate our approach, we conducted a varied series of regression experiments on commonly used benchmarks: 1D sinusoidal data, *Pendulum*, *Hopper*, *Ant*, and *Humanoid*, demonstrating PairEpEsts’ advantage over baselines in high-dimensional regression active learning.

Pseudo-labeling is a commonly used paradigm in semi-supervised learning, yet its application to semi-supervised regression (SSR) remains relatively under-explored. Unlike classification, where pseudo-labels are discrete and confidence-based filtering is effective, SSR involves continuous outputs with heteroscedastic noise, making it challenging to assess pseudo-label reliability. As a result, naive pseudo-labeling can lead to error accumulation and overfitting to incorrect labels. To address this, we propose an uncertainty-aware pseudo-labeling framework that dynamically adjusts pseudo-label influence from a bi-level optimization perspective. By jointly minimizing empirical risk over all data and optimizing uncertainty estimates to enhance generalization on labeled data, our method effectively mitigates the impact of unreliable pseudo-labels. We provide theoretical insights and extensive experiments to validate our approach across various benchmark SSR datasets, and the results demonstrate superior robustness and performance compared to existing methods.