Healthcare Policy Modeling

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful framework for modeling exchangeable sequences---i.i.d. observations when conditioned on some latent factor---enabling direct modeling of uncertainty from missing data (rather than a latent). Motivated by the critical role posterior inference plays as a subroutine in decision-making (e.g., active learning, bandits), we study the inferential and architectural inductive biases that are most effective for exchangeable sequence modeling. For the inference stage, we highlight a fundamental limitation of the prevalent single-step generation approach: its inability to distinguish between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. Instead, a long line of works in Bayesian statistics advocates for multi-step autoregressive generation; we demonstrate this "correct approach" enables superior uncertainty quantification that translates into better performance on downstream decision-making tasks. This naturally leads to the next question: which architectures are best suited for multi-step inference? We identify a subtle yet important gap between recently proposed Transformer architectures for exchangeable sequences (Müller et al., 2022; Nguyen & Grover, 2022; Ye & Namkoong, 2024), and prove that they in fact cannot guarantee exchangeability despite introducing significant computational overhead. Through empirical evaluation, we find that these custom architectures can significantly underperform compared to standard causal masking, highlighting the need for new architectural innovations in Transformer-based modeling of exchangeable sequences.

Online planning has proven effective in reinforcement learning (RL) for improving sample efficiency and final performance. However, using planning for environment interaction inevitably introduces a divergence between the collected data and the policy's actual behaviors, degrading both model learning and policy improvement. To address this, we propose BOOM (Bootstrap Off-policy with WOrld Model), a framework that tightly integrates planning and off-policy learning through a bootstrap loop: the policy initializes the planner, and the planner refines actions to bootstrap the policy through behavior alignment. This loop is supported by a jointly learned world model, which enables the planner to simulate future trajectories and provides value targets to facilitate policy improvement. The core of BOOM is a likelihood-free alignment loss that bootstraps the policy using the planner’s non-parametric action distribution, combined with a soft value-weighted mechanism that prioritizes high-return behaviors and mitigates variability in the planner’s action quality within the replay buffer. Experiments on the high-dimensional DeepMind Control Suite and Humanoid-Bench show that BOOM achieves state-of-the-art results in both training stability and final performance. The code is accessible at \url{https://github.com/molumitu/BOOM_MBRL}.

The explosive growth in sequence length has intensified the demand for effective and efficient long sequence modeling. Benefiting from intrinsic oscillatory membrane dynamics, Resonate-and-Fire (RF) neurons can efficiently extract frequency components from input signals and encode them into spatiotemporal spike trains, making them well-suited for long sequence modeling. However, RF neurons exhibit limited effective memory capacity and a trade-off between energy efficiency and training speed on complex temporal tasks. Inspired by the dendritic structure of biological neurons, we propose a Dendritic Resonate-and-Fire (D-RF) model, which explicitly incorporates a multi-dendritic and soma architecture. Each dendritic branch encodes specific frequency bands by utilizing the intrinsic oscillatory dynamics of RF neurons, thereby collectively achieving comprehensive frequency representation. Furthermore, we introduce an adaptive threshold mechanism into the soma structure. his mechanism adjusts the firing threshold according to historical spiking activity, thereby reducing redundant spikes while maintaining training efficiency in long-sequence tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method maintains competitive accuracy while substantially ensuring sparse spikes without compromising computational efficiency during training. These results underscore its potential as an effective and efficient solution for long sequence modeling on edge platforms.

Functional brain network (FBN) modeling often relies on local pairwise interactions, whose limitation in capturing high-order dependencies is theoretically analyzed in this paper. Meanwhile, the computational burden and heuristic nature of current hypergraph modeling approaches hinder end-to-end learning of FBN structures directly from data distributions. To address this, we propose to extract high-order FBN structures under global constraints, and implement this as a Global Constraints oriented Multi-resolution (GCM) FBN structure learning framework. It incorporates 4 types of global constraint (signal synchronization, subject identity, expected edge numbers, and data labels) to enable learning FBN structures for 4 distinct levels (sample/subject/group/project) of modeling resolution. Experimental results demonstrate that GCM achieves up to a 30.6% improvement in relative accuracy and a 96.3% reduction in computational time across 5 datasets and 2 task settings, compared to 9 baselines and 10 state-of-the-art methods. Extensive experiments validate the contributions of individual components and highlight the interpretability of GCM. This work offers a novel perspective on FBN structure learning and provides a foundation for interdisciplinary applications in cognitive neuroscience. Code is publicly available on https://github.com/lzhan94swu/GCM.

Recent advancements in offline reinforcement learning (RL) have underscored the capabilities of conditional sequence modeling (CSM), a paradigm that models the action distribution conditioned on both historical trajectories and target returns associated with each state. However, due to the imbalanced return distribution caused by suboptimal datasets, CSM is grappling with a serious distributional shift problem when conditioning on high returns. While recent approaches attempt to empirically tackle this challenge through return rebalancing techniques such as weighted sampling and value-regularized supervision, the relationship between return rebalancing and the performance of CSM methods is not well understood. In this paper, we reveal that both expert-level and full-spectrum return-coverage critically influence the performance and sample efficiency of CSM policies. Building on this finding, we devise a simple yet effective return-coverage rebalancing mechanism that can be seamlessly integrated into common CSM frameworks, including the most widely used one, Decision Transformer (DT). The resulting CSM algorithm, referred to as Return-rebalanced Value-regularized Decision Transformer (RVDT), integrates both implicit and explicit return-coverage rebalancing mechanisms, and achieves state-of-the-art performance in the D4RL experiments.

Skill Incremental Learning (SIL) is the process by which an embodied agent expands and refines its skill set over time by leveraging experience gained through interaction with its environment or by the integration of additional data. SIL facilitates efficient acquisition of hierarchical policies grounded in reusable skills for downstream tasks. However, as the skill repertoire evolves, it can disrupt compatibility with existing skill-based policies, limiting their reusability and generalization. In this work, we propose SIL-C, a novel framework that ensures skill-policy compatibility, allowing improvements in incrementally learned skills to enhance the performance of downstream policies without requiring policy re-training or structural adaptation. SIL-C employs a bilateral lazy learning-based mapping technique to dynamically align the subtask space referenced by policies with the skill space decoded into agent behaviors. This enables each subtask, derived from the policy's decomposition of a complex task, to be executed by selecting an appropriate skill based on trajectory distribution similarity. We evaluate SIL-C across diverse SIL scenarios and demonstrate that it maintains compatibility between evolving skills and downstream policies while ensuring efficiency throughout the learning process.

Recent advances in large reasoning models (LRMs) demonstrate that sophisticated behaviors such as multi-step reasoning and self-reflection can emerge via reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards~(RLVR). However, existing RLVR approaches are inherently ``on-policy'', limiting learning to a model's own outputs and failing to acquire reasoning abilities beyond its initial capabilities. To address this issue, we introduce LUFFY (Learning to reason Under oFF-policY guidance), a framework that augments RLVR with off-policy reasoning traces. LUFFY dynamically balances imitation and exploration by combining off-policy demonstrations with on-policy rollouts during training. Specifically, LUFFY combines the Mixed-Policy GRPO framework, which has a theoretically guaranteed convergence rate, alongside policy shaping via regularized importance sampling to avoid superficial and rigid imitation during mixed-policy training. Compared with previous RLVR methods, LUFFY achieves an over +6.4 average gain across six math benchmarks and an advantage of over +6.2 points in out-of-distribution tasks. Most significantly, we show that LUFFY successfully trains weak models in scenarios where on-policy RLVR completely fails. These results provide compelling evidence that LUFFY transcends the fundamental limitations of on-policy RLVR and demonstrates the great potential of utilizing off-policy guidance in RLVR.

Pre-trained language models represented by the Transformer have been proven to possess strong base capabilities, and the representative self-attention mechanism in the Transformer has become a classic in sequence modeling architectures. Different from the work of proposing sequence modeling architecture to improve the efficiency of attention mechanism, this work focuses on the impact of sequence modeling architectures on base capabilities. Specifically, our concern is: How exactly do sequence modeling architectures affect the base capabilities of pre-trained language models? In this work, we first point out that the mixed domain pre-training setting commonly adopted in existing architecture design works fails to adequately reveal the differences in base capabilities among various architectures. To address this, we propose a limited domain pre-training setting with out-of-distribution testing, which successfully uncovers significant differences in base capabilities among architectures at an early stage. Next, we analyze the base capabilities of stateful sequence modeling architectures, and find that they exhibit significant degradation in base capabilities compared to the Transformer. Then, through a series of architecture component analysis, we summarize a key architecture design principle: A sequence modeling architecture need possess full-sequence arbitrary selection capability to avoid degradation in base capabilities. Finally, we empirically validate this principle using an extremely simple Top-1 element selection architecture and further generalize it to a more practical Top-1 chunk selection architecture. Experimental results demonstrate our proposed sequence modeling architecture design principle and suggest that our work can serve as a valuable reference for future architecture improvements and novel designs.

We consider off-policy evaluation (OPE) in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with unobserved confounding. Recent advances have introduced bridge-function to circumvent unmeasured confounding and develop estimators for the policy value, yet the statistical error bounds of them related to the length of horizon $T$ and the size of the state-action space $|\mathcal{O}||\mathcal{A}|$ remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we systematically investigate the finite-sample error bounds of OPE estimators in finite-horizon tabular confounded POMDPs. Specifically, we show that under certain rank conditions, the estimation error for policy value can achieve a rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{1.5}/\sqrt{n})$, excluding the cardinality of the observation space $|\mathcal{O}|$ and the action space $|\mathcal{A}|$. With an additional mild condition on the concentrability coefficients in confounded POMDPs, the rate of estimation error can be improved to $\mathcal{O}(T/\sqrt{n})$. We also show that for a fully history-dependent policy, the estimation error scales as $\mathcal{O}\big(T/\sqrt{n}(|\mathcal{O}| |\mathcal{A}|)^{\frac{T}{2}}\big)$, highlighting the exponential error dependence introduced by history-based proxies to infer hidden states. Furthermore, when the target policy is memoryless policy, the error bound improves to $\mathcal{O}\big(T/\sqrt{n}\sqrt{|\mathcal{O}| |\mathcal{A}|}\big)$, which matches the optimal rate known for tabular MDPs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to provide a comprehensive finite-sample analysis of OPE in confounded POMDPs.

Autoregressive language models accumulate errors due to their fixed, irrevocable left-to-right token generation. To address this, we propose a new sampling method called Resample-Previous-Tokens (RPT). RPT mitigates error accumulation by iteratively revisiting and potentially replacing tokens in a window of previously generated text. Fine-tuning a pretrained 8B parameter model with RPT for only 100B resulted in ~10% relative improvements on reasoning and coding benchmarks compared to the standard sampling.

To learn approximately optimal acting policies for decision problems, modern Actor Critic algorithms rely on deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to parameterize the acting policy and greedification operators to iteratively improve it. The reliance on DNNs suggests an improvement that is gradient based, which is per step much less greedy than the improvement possible by greedier operators such as the greedy update used by Q-learning algorithms. On the other hand, slow and steady changes to the policy can also be beneficial for the stability of the learning process, resulting in a tradeoff between greedification and stability. To address this tradeoff, we propose to extend the standard framework of actor critic algorithms with value-improvement: a second greedification operator applied only when updating the policy's value estimate. In this framework the agent can evaluate non-parameterized policies and perform much greedier updates while maintaining the steady gradient-based improvement to the parameterized acting policy. We prove that this approach converges in the popular analysis scheme of generalized Policy Iteration in the finite-horizon domain. Empirically, incorporating value-improvement into the popular off-policy actor-critic algorithms TD3 and SAC significantly improves or matches performance over their respective baselines, across different environments from the DeepMind continuous control domain, with negligible compute and implementation cost.

Actor-Critic methods are widely used for their scalability, yet existing theoretical guarantees for infinite-horizon average-reward Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) often rely on restrictive ergodicity assumptions. We propose NAC-B, a Natural Actor-Critic with Batching, that achieves order-optimal regret of \$\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})\$ in infinite-horizon average-reward MDPs under the unichain assumption, which permits both transient states and periodicity. This assumption is among the weakest under which the classic policy gradient theorem remains valid for average-reward settings. NAC-B employs function approximation for both the actor and the critic, enabling scalability to problems with large state and action spaces. The use of batching in our algorithm helps mitigate potential periodicity in the MDP and reduces stochasticity in gradient estimates, and our analysis formalizes these benefits through the introduction of the constants $C_{\text{hit}}$ and $C_{\text{tar}}$, which characterize the rate at which empirical averages over Markovian samples converge to the stationary distribution.

In off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) tasks within reinforcement learning, Temporal Difference Learning(TD) and Fitted Q-Iteration (FQI) have traditionally been viewed as differing in the number of updates toward the target value function: TD makes one update, FQI makes an infinite number, and Partial Fitted Q-Iteration (PFQI) performs a finite number. We show that this view is not accurate, and provide a new mathematical perspective under linear value function approximation that unifies these methods as a single iterative method solving same linear system, but using different matrix splitting schemes and preconditioners. We show that increasing the number of updates under the same target value function, i.e., the target network technique, is a transition from using a constant preconditioner to using a data-feature adaptive preconditioner. This elucidates, for the first time, why TD convergence does not necessarily imply FQI convergence, and establishes tight convergence connections among TD, PFQI, and FQI. Our framework enables sharper theoretical results than previous work and characterization of the convergence conditions for each algorithm, without relying on assumptions about the features (e.g., linear independence). We also provide an encoder-decoder perspective to better understand TD’s convergence conditions, and prove, for the first time, that when a large learning rate doesn’t work, trying a smaller one may help(for batch TD). Our framework also leads to the discovery of new crucial conditions on features for convergence, and shows how common assumptions about features influence convergence, e.g., the assumption of linearly independent features can be dropped without compromising the convergence guarantees of stochastic TD in the on-policy setting. This paper is also the first to introduce matrix splitting into the convergence analysis of these algorithms.

DeepSeek-R1 has successfully enhanced Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning capabilities through its rule-based reward system. While it's a ''perfect'' reward system that effectively mitigates reward hacking, such reward functions are often discrete. Our experimental observations suggest that discrete rewards can lead to gradient anomaly, unstable optimization, and slow convergence. To address this issue, we propose ReDit (Reward Dithering), a method that dithers the discrete reward signal by adding simple random noise. With this perturbed reward, exploratory gradients are continuously provided throughout the learning process, enabling smoother gradient updates and accelerating convergence. The injected noise also introduces stochasticity into flat reward regions, encouraging the model to explore novel policies and escape local optima. Experiments across diverse tasks demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of ReDit. On average, ReDit achieves performance comparable to vanilla GRPO with only approximately 10% the training steps, and furthermore, still exhibits a 4% performance improvement over vanilla GRPO when trained for a similar duration. Visualizations confirm significant mitigation of gradient issues with ReDit. Moreover, theoretical analyses are provided to further validate these advantages.

Existing molecular machine learning force fields (MLFFs) generally focus on the learning of atoms, molecules, and simple quantum chemical properties (such as energy and force), but ignore the importance of electron density (ED) $\rho(r)$ in accurately understanding molecular force fields (MFFs). ED describes the probability of finding electrons at specific locations around atoms or molecules, which uniquely determines all ground state properties (such as energy, molecular structure, etc.) of interactive multi-particle systems according to the Hohenberg-Kohn theorem. However, the calculation of ED relies on the time-consuming first-principles density functional theory (DFT), which leads to the lack of large-scale ED data and limits its application in MLFFs. In this paper, we introduce EDBench, a large-scale, high-quality dataset of ED designed to advance learning-based research at the electronic scale. Built upon the PCQM4Mv2, EDBench provides accurate ED data, covering 3.3 million molecules. To comprehensively evaluate the ability of models to understand and utilize electronic information, we design a suite of ED-centric benchmark tasks spanning prediction, retrieval, and generation. Our evaluation of several state-of-the-art methods demonstrates that learning from EDBench is not only feasible but also achieves high accuracy. Moreover, we show that learning-based methods can efficiently calculate ED with comparable precision while significantly reducing the computational cost relative to traditional DFT calculations. All data and benchmarks from EDBench will be freely available, laying a robust foundation for ED-driven drug discovery and materials science.

Predicting disease risk from DNA presents an unprecedented emerging challenge as biobanks approach population scale sizes ($N>10^6$ individuals) with ultra-high-dimensional features ($L>10^5$ genotypes). Current methods, often linear and reliant on summary statistics, fail to capture complex genetic interactions and discard valuable individual-level information. We introduce **PRSformer**, a scalable deep learning architecture designed for end-to-end, multitask disease prediction directly from million-scale individual genotypes. PRSformer employs neighborhood attention, achieving linear $O(L)$ complexity per layer, making Transformers tractable for genome-scale inputs. Crucially, PRSformer utilizes a stacking of these efficient attention layers, progressively increasing the effective receptive field to model local dependencies (e.g., within linkage disequilibrium blocks) before integrating information across wider genomic regions. This design, tailored for genomics, allows PRSformer to learn complex, potentially non-linear and long-range interactions directly from raw genotypes. We demonstrate PRSformer's effectiveness using a unique large private cohort ($N \approx 5$M) for predicting 18 autoimmune and inflammatory conditions using $L \approx 140$k variants. PRSformer significantly outperforms highly optimized linear models trained on the *same individual-level data* and state-of-the-art summary-statistic-based methods (LDPred2) derived from the *same cohort*, quantifying the benefits of non-linear modeling and multitask learning at scale. Furthermore, experiments reveal that the advantage of non-linearity emerges primarily at large sample sizes ($N > 1$M), and that a multi-ancestry trained model improves generalization, establishing PRSformer as a new framework for deep learning in population-scale genomics.

"Machine unlearning" is a popular proposed solution for mitigating the existence of content in an AI model that is problematic for legal or moral reasons, including privacy, copyright, safety, and more. For example, unlearning is often invoked as a solution for removing the effects of specific information from a generative-AI model's parameters, e.g., a particular individual's personal data or the inclusion of copyrighted content in the model's training data. Unlearning is also proposed as a way to prevent a model from generating targeted types of information in its outputs, e.g., generations that closely resemble a particular individual's data or reflect the concept of "Spiderman." Both of these goals--the targeted removal of information from a model and the targeted suppression of information from a model's outputs--present various technical and substantive challenges. We provide a framework for ML researchers and policymakers to think rigorously about these challenges, identifying several mismatches between the goals of unlearning and feasible implementations. These mismatches explain why unlearning is not a general-purpose solution for circumscribing generative-AI model behavior in service of broader positive impact.

Retrosynthesis planning aims to decompose target molecules into available building blocks, forming a synthetic tree where each internal node represents an intermediate compound and each leaf ideally corresponds to a purchasable reactant. However, this tree becomes invalid if any leaf node is not a valid building block, making the planning process vulnerable to the "weakest link" in the synthetic route. Existing methods often optimise for average performance across branches, failing to account for this worst-case sensitivity. In this paper, we reframe retrosynthesis as a worst-path optimisation problem within tree-structured Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We prove that this formulation admits a unique optimal solution and provides monotonic improvement guarantees. Building on this insight, we introduce Interactive Retrosynthesis Planning (InterRetro), a method that interacts with the tree MDP, learns a value function for worst-path outcomes, and improves its policy through self-imitation, preferentially reinforcing past decisions with high estimated advantage. Empirically, InterRetro achieves state-of-the-art results — solving 100\% of targets on the Retro*-190 benchmark, shortening synthetic routes by 4.9\%, and achieving promising performance using only 10\% of the training data.

Equivariant models have recently been shown to improve the data efficiency of diffusion policy by a significant margin. However, prior work that explored this direction focused primarily on point cloud inputs generated by multiple cameras fixed in the workspace. This type of point cloud input is not compatible with the now-common setting where the primary input modality is an eye-in-hand RGB camera like a GoPro. This paper closes this gap by incorporating into the diffusion policy model a process that projects features from the 2D RGB camera image onto a sphere. This enables us to reason about symmetries in $\mathrm{SO}(3)$ without explicitly reconstructing a point cloud. We perform extensive experiments in both simulation and the real world that demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines in terms of both performance and sample efficiency. Our work, $\textbf{Image-to-Sphere Policy}$ ($\textbf{ISP}$), is the first $\mathrm{SO}(3)$-equivariant policy learning framework for robotic manipulation that works using only monocular RGB inputs.

The distribution of data changes over time; models operating in dynamic environments need retraining. But knowing when to retrain, without access to labels, is an open challenge since some, but not all shifts degrade model performance. This paper formalizes and addresses the problem of post-deployment deterioration (PDD) monitoring. We propose D3M, a practical and efficient monitoring algorithm based on the disagreement of predictive models, achieving low false positive rates under non-deteriorating shifts and provides sample complexity bounds for high true positive rates under deteriorating shifts. Empirical results on both standard benchmark and a real-world large-scale internal medicine dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework and highlight its viability as an alert mechanism for high-stakes machine learning pipelines.