NeurIPS 2024 Papers

Irregularly Sampled Medical Time Series (ISMTS) are commonly found in the healthcare domain, where different variables exhibit unique temporal patterns while interrelated. However, many existing methods fail to efficiently consider the differences and correlations among medical variables together, leading to inadequate capture of fine-grained features at the variable level in ISMTS. We propose Knowledge-Empowered Dynamic Graph Network (KEDGN), a graph neural network empowered by variables' textual medical knowledge, aiming to model variable-specific temporal dependencies and inter-variable dependencies in ISMTS. Specifically, we leverage a pre-trained language model to extract semantic representations for each variable from their textual descriptions of medical properties, forming an overall semantic view among variables from a medical perspective. Based on this, we allocate variable-specific parameter spaces to capture variable-specific temporal patterns and generate a complete variable graph to measure medical correlations among variables. Additionally, we employ a density-aware mechanism to dynamically adjust the variable graph at different timestamps, adapting to the time-varying correlations among variables in ISMTS. The variable-specific parameter spaces and dynamic graphs are injected into the graph convolutional recurrent network to capture intra-variable and inter-variable dependencies in ISMTS together. Experiment results on four healthcare datasets demonstrate that KEDGN significantly outperforms existing methods.

Parallel-in-time (PinT) techniques have been proposed to solve systems of time-dependent differential equations by parallelizing the temporal domain. Among them, Parareal computes the solution sequentially using an inaccurate (fast) solver, and then ``corrects'' it using an accurate (slow) integrator that runs in parallel across temporal subintervals. This work introduces RandNet-Parareal, a novel method to learn the discrepancy between the coarse and fine solutions using random neural networks (RandNets). RandNet-Parareal achieves speed gains up to x125 and x22 compared to the fine solver run serially and Parareal, respectively. Beyond theoretical guarantees of RandNets as universal approximators, these models are quick to train, allowing the PinT solution of partial differential equations on a spatial mesh of up to $10^5$ points with minimal overhead, dramatically increasing the scalability of existing PinT approaches. RandNet-Parareal's numerical performance is illustrated on systems of real-world significance, such as the viscous Burgers' equation, the Diffusion-Reaction equation, the two- and three-dimensional Brusselator, and the shallow water equation.

Recent advancements in anomaly detection have seen the efficacy of CNN- and transformer-based approaches. However, CNNs struggle with long-range dependencies, while transformers are burdened by quadratic computational complexity. Mamba-based models, with their superior long-range modeling and linear efficiency, have garnered substantial attention. This study pioneers the application of Mamba to multi-class unsupervised anomaly detection, presenting MambaAD, which consists of a pre-trained encoder and a Mamba decoder featuring (Locality-Enhanced State Space) LSS modules at multi-scales. The proposed LSS module, integrating parallel cascaded (Hybrid State Space) HSS blocks and multi-kernel convolutions operations, effectively captures both long-range and local information. The HSS block, utilizing (Hybrid Scanning) HS encoders, encodes feature maps into five scanning methods and eight directions, thereby strengthening global connections through the (State Space Model) SSM. The use of Hilbert scanning and eight directions significantly improves feature sequence modeling. Comprehensive experiments on six diverse anomaly detection datasets and seven metrics demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, substantiating the method's effectiveness. The code and models are available at https://lewandofskee.github.io/projects/MambaAD.

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare. Recent studies have highlighted the advantages of channel independence to resist distribution drift but neglect channel correlations, limiting further enhancements. Several methods utilize mechanisms like attention or mixer to address this by capturing channel correlations, but they either introduce excessive complexity or rely too heavily on the correlation to achieve satisfactory results under distribution drifts, particularly with a large number of channels. Addressing this gap, this paper presents an efficient MLP-based model, the Series-cOre Fused Time Series forecaster (SOFTS), which incorporates a novel STar Aggregate-Redistribute (STAR) module. Unlike traditional approaches that manage channel interactions through distributed structures, \textit{e.g.}, attention, STAR employs a centralized strategy to improve efficiency and reduce reliance on the quality of each channel. It aggregates all series to form a global core representation, which is then dispatched and fused with individual series representations to facilitate channel interactions effectively. SOFTS achieves superior performance over existing state-of-the-art methods with only linear complexity. The broad applicability of the STAR module across different forecasting models is also demonstrated empirically. We have made our code publicly available at https://github.com/Secilia-Cxy/SOFTS.

The identifiability analysis of linear Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) systems is a necessary prerequisite for making reliable causal inferences about these systems. While identifiability has been well studied in scenarios where the system is fully observable, the conditions for identifiability remain unexplored when latent variables interact with the system. This paper aims to address this gap by presenting a systematic analysis of identifiability in linear ODE systems incorporating hidden confounders. Specifically, we investigate two cases of such systems. In the first case, latent confounders exhibit no causal relationships, yet their evolution adheres to specific functional forms, such as polynomial functions of time $t$. Subsequently, we extend this analysis to encompass scenarios where hidden confounders exhibit causal dependencies, with the causal structure of latent variables described by a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). The second case represents a more intricate variation of the first case, prompting a more comprehensive identifiability analysis. Accordingly, we conduct detailed identifiability analyses of the second system under various observation conditions, including both continuous and discrete observations from single or multiple trajectories. To validate our theoretical results, we perform a series of simulations, which support and substantiate our findings.

In this work, we propose Asynchronous Perception Machine (APM), a computationally-efficient architecture for test-time-training (TTT). APM can process patches of an image one at a time in any order asymmetrically and still encode semantic-awareness in the net. We demonstrate APM's ability to recognize out-of-distribution images without dataset-specific pre-training, augmentation or any-pretext task. APM offers competitive performance over existing TTT approaches. To perform TTT, APM just distills test sample's representation once. APM possesses a unique property: it can learn using just this single representation and starts predicting semantically-aware features. APM demostrates potential applications beyond test-time-training: APM can scale up to a dataset of 2D images and yield semantic-clusterings in a single forward pass. APM also provides first empirical evidence towards validating GLOM's insight, i.e. input percept is a field. Therefore, APM helps us converge towards an implementation which can do both interpolation and perception on a shared-connectionist hardware. Our code is publicly available at https://rajatmodi62.github.io/apm_project_page/ -------- **It now appears that some of the ideas in GLOM could be made to work.** https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/16/1021871/geoffrey-hinton-glom-godfather-ai-neural-networks/ GLOM = Geoff's Latest Original Model. ``` .-""""""-. .' '. / O O \ | O | \ '------' / '. .' '-....-' Silent men in deep-contemplation. Silent men emerges only sometimes. Silent men love all. Silent men practice slow science. ```

Electronic health record (EHR) data has emerged as a valuable resource for analyzing patient health status. However, the prevalence of missing data in EHR poses significant challenges to existing methods, leading to spurious correlations and suboptimal predictions. While various imputation techniques have been developed to address this issue, they often obsess difficult-to-interpolate details and may introduce additional noise when making clinical predictions. To tackle this problem, we propose SMART, a Self-Supervised Missing-Aware RepresenTation Learning approach for patient health status prediction, which encodes missing information via missing-aware temporal and variable attentions and learns to impute missing values through a novel self-supervised pre-training approach which reconstructs missing data representations in the latent space rather than in input space as usual. By adopting elaborated attentions and focusing on learning higher-order representations, SMART promotes better generalization and robustness to missing data. We validate the effectiveness of SMART through extensive experiments on six EHR tasks, demonstrating its superiority over state-of-the-art methods.

The Column Subset Selection (CSS) problem has been widely studied in dimensionality reduction and feature selection. The goal of the CSS problem is to output a submatrix S, consisting of k columns from an n×d input matrix A that minimizes the residual error ‖A-SS^\dagger A‖_F^2, where S^\dagger is the Moore-Penrose inverse matrix of S. Many previous approximation algorithms have non-linear running times in both n and d, while the existing linear-time algorithms have a relatively larger approximation ratios. Additionally, the local search algorithms in existing results for solving the CSS problem are heuristic. To achieve linear running time while maintaining better approximation using a local search strategy, we propose a local search-based approximation algorithm for the CSS problem with exactly k columns selected. A key challenge in achieving linear running time with the local search strategy is how to avoid exhaustive enumerations of candidate columns for constructing swap pairs in each local search step. To address this issue, we propose a two-step mixed sampling method that reduces the number of enumerations for swap pair construction from O(dk) to k in linear time. Although the two-step mixed sampling method reduces the search space of local search strategy, bounding the residual error after swaps is a non-trivial task. To estimate the changes in residual error after swaps, we propose a matched swap pair construction method to bound the approximation loss, ensuring a constant probability of loss reduction in each local search step. In expectation, these techniques enable us to obtain the local search algorithm for the CSS problem with theoretical guarantees, where a 53(k+1)-approximate solution can be obtained in linear running time O(ndk^4\log k). Empirical experiments show that our proposed algorithm achieves better quality and time compared to previous algorithms on both small and large datasets. Moreover, it is at least 10 times faster than state-of-the-art algorithms across all large-scale datasets.

Node centralities play a pivotal role in network science, social network analysis, and recommender systems. In temporal data, static path-based centralities like closeness or betweenness can give misleading results about the true importance of nodes in a temporal graph. To address this issue, temporal generalizations of betweenness and closeness have been defined that are based on the shortest time-respecting paths between pairs of nodes. However, a major issue of those generalizations is that the calculation of such paths is computationally expensive. Addressing this issue, we study the application of De Bruijn Graph Neural Networks (DBGNN), a time-aware graph neural network architecture, to predict temporal path-based centralities in time series data. We experimentally evaluate our approach in 13 temporal graphs from biological and social systems and show that it considerably improves the prediction of betweenness and closeness centrality compared to (i) a static Graph Convolutional Neural Network, (ii) an efficient sampling-based approximation technique for temporal betweenness, and (iii) two state-of-the-art time-aware graph learning techniques for dynamic graphs.

We present a novel set of rigorous and computationally efficient topology-based complexity notions that exhibit a strong correlation with the generalization gap in modern deep neural networks (DNNs). DNNs show remarkable generalization properties, yet the source of these capabilities remains elusive, defying the established statistical learning theory. Recent studies have revealed that properties of training trajectories can be indicative of generalization. Building on this insight, state-of-the-art methods have leveraged the topology of these trajectories, particularly their fractal dimension, to quantify generalization. Most existing works compute this quantity by assuming continuous- or infinite-time training dynamics, complicating the development of practical estimators capable of accurately predicting generalization without access to test data. In this paper, we respect the discrete-time nature of training trajectories and investigate the underlying topological quantities that can be amenable to topological data analysis tools. This leads to a new family of reliable topological complexity measures that provably bound the generalization error, eliminating the need for restrictive geometric assumptions. These measures are computationally friendly, enabling us to propose simple yet effective algorithms for computing generalization indices. Moreover, our flexible framework can be extended to different domains, tasks, and architectures. Our experimental results demonstrate that our new complexity measures exhibit a strong correlation with generalization error in industry-standard architectures such as transformers and deep graph networks. Our approach consistently outperforms existing topological bounds across a wide range of datasets, models, and optimizers, highlighting the practical relevance and effectiveness of our complexity measures.

Time series analysis finds wide applications in fields such as weather forecasting, anomaly detection, and behavior recognition. Previous methods attempted to model temporal variations directly using 1D time series. However, this has been quite challenging due to the discrete nature of data points in time series and the complexity of periodic variation. In terms of periodicity, taking weather and traffic data as an example, there are multi-periodic variations such as yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily, etc. In order to break through the limitations of the previous methods, we decouple the implied complex periodic variations into inclusion and overlap relationships among different level periodic components based on the observation of the multi-periodicity therein and its inclusion relationships. This explicitly represents the naturally occurring pyramid-like properties in time series, where the top level is the original time series and lower levels consist of periodic components with gradually shorter periods, which we call the periodic pyramid. To further extract complex temporal variations, we introduce self-attention mechanism into the periodic pyramid, capturing complex periodic relationships by computing attention between periodic components based on their inclusion, overlap, and adjacency relationships. Our proposed Peri-midFormer demonstrates outstanding performance in five mainstream time series analysis tasks, including short- and long-term forecasting, imputation, classification, and anomaly detection.

Time series generation is a crucial aspect of data analysis, playing a pivotal role in learning the temporal patterns and their underlying dynamics across diverse fields. Conventional time series generation methods often struggle to capture extreme values adequately, diminishing their value in critical applications such as scenario planning and management for healthcare, finance, climate change adaptation, and beyond. In this paper, we introduce a conditional diffusion model called FIDE to address the challenge of preserving the distribution of extreme values in generative modeling for time series. FIDE employs a novel high-frequency inflation strategy in the frequency domain, preventing premature fade-out of the extreme value. It also extends traditional diffusion-based model, enabling the generation of samples conditioned on the block maxima, thereby enhancing the model's capacity to capture extreme events. Additionally, the FIDE framework incorporates the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution within its generative modeling framework, ensuring fidelity to both block maxima and overall data distribution. Experimental results on real-world and synthetic data showcase the efficacy of FIDE over baseline methods, highlighting its potential in advancing Generative AI for time series analysis, specifically in accurately modeling extreme events.

Conventional notions of generalization often fail to describe the ability of learned models to capture meaningful information from dynamical data. A neural network that learns complex dynamics with a small test error may still fail to reproduce its \emph{physical} behavior, including associated statistical moments and Lyapunov exponents. To address this gap, we propose an ergodic theoretic approach to generalization of complex dynamical models learned from time series data. Our main contribution is to define and analyze generalization of a broad suite of neural representations of classes of ergodic systems, including chaotic systems, in a way that captures emulating underlying invariant, physical measures. Our results provide theoretical justification for why regression methods for generators of dynamical systems (Neural ODEs) fail to generalize, and why their statistical accuracy improves upon adding Jacobian information during training. We verify our results on a number of ergodic chaotic systems and neural network parameterizations, including MLPs, ResNets, Fourier Neural layers, and RNNs.

Motion forecasting for agents in autonomous driving is highly challenging due to the numerous possibilities for each agent's next action and their complex interactions in space and time. In real applications, motion forecasting takes place repeatedly and continuously as the self-driving car moves. However, existing forecasting methods typically process each driving scene within a certain range independently, totally ignoring the situational and contextual relationships between successive driving scenes. This significantly simplifies the forecasting task, making the solutions suboptimal and inefficient to use in practice. To address this fundamental limitation, we propose a novel motion forecasting framework for continuous driving, named RealMotion. It comprises two integral streams both at the scene level: (1) The scene context stream progressively accumulates historical scene information until the present moment, capturing temporal interactive relationships among scene elements. (2) The agent trajectory stream optimizes current forecasting by sequentially relaying past predictions. Besides, a data reorganization strategy is introduced to narrow the gap between existing benchmarks and real-world applications, consistent with our network. These approaches enable exploiting more broadly the situational and progressive insights of dynamic motion across space and time. Extensive experiments on Argoverse series with different settings demonstrate that our RealMotion achieves state-of-the-art performance, along with the advantage of efficient real-world inference.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are used to learn representations in partially observable environments. For agents that learn online and continually interact with the environment, it is desirable to train RNNs with real-time recurrent learning (RTRL); unfortunately, RTRL is prohibitively expensive for standard RNNs. A promising direction is to use linear recurrent architectures (LRUs), where dense recurrent weights are replaced with a complex-valued diagonal, making RTRL efficient. In this work, we build on these insights to provide a lightweight but effective approach for training RNNs in online RL. We introduce Recurrent Trace Units (RTUs), a small modification on LRUs that we nonetheless find to have significant performance benefits over LRUs when trained with RTRL. We find RTUs significantly outperform GRUs and Transformers across several partially observable environments while using significantly less computation.

While Distributed Machine Learning (DML) has been widely used to achieve decent performance, it is still challenging to take full advantage of data and devices distributed at multiple vantage points to adapt and learn, especially it is non-trivial to address dynamic and divergence challenges based on the linear aggregation framework as follows: (1) heterogeneous learning data at different devices (i.e., non-IID data) resulting in model divergence and (2) in the case of time-varying communication links, the limited ability for devices to reconcile model divergence. In this paper, we contribute a non-linear class aggregation framework HyperPrism that leverages distributed mirror descent with averaging done in the mirror descent dual space and adapts the degree of Weighted Power Mean (WPM) used in each round. Moreover, HyperPrism could adaptively choose different mapping for different layers of the local model with a dedicated hypernetwork per device, achieving automatic optimization of DML in high divergence settings. We perform rigorous analysis and experimental evaluations to demonstrate the effectiveness of adaptive, mirror-mapping DML. In particular, we extend the generalizability of existing related works and position them as special cases within HyperPrism. Our experimental results show that HyperPrism can improve the convergence speed up to 98.63% and scale well to more devices compared with the state-of-the-art, all with little additional computation overhead compared to traditional linear aggregation.