NeurIPS 2024 Papers

Algorithms that utilize bandit feedback to optimize top-k recommendations are vital for online marketplaces, search engines, and content platforms. However, the combinatorial nature of this problem poses a significant challenge, as the possible number of ordered top-k recommendations from $n$ items grows exponentially with $k$. As a result, previous work often relies on restrictive assumptions about the reward or bandit feedback models, such as assuming that the feedback discloses rewards for each recommended item rather than a single scalar feedback for the entire set of top-k recommendations. We introduce a novel contextual bandit algorithm for top-k recommendations, leveraging a Gaussian process with a Kendall kernel to model the reward function. Our algorithm requires only scalar feedback from the top-k recommendations and does not impose restrictive assumptions on the reward structure. Theoretical analysis confirms that the proposed algorithm achieves sub-linear regret in relation to the number of rounds and arms. Additionally, empirical results using a bandit simulator demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms other baselines across various scenarios.

Discrete distributions, particularly in high-dimensional deep models, are often highly multimodal due to inherent discontinuities. While gradient-based discrete sampling has proven effective, it is susceptible to becoming trapped in local modes due to the gradient information. To tackle this challenge, we propose an automatic cyclical scheduling, designed for efficient and accurate sampling in multimodal discrete distributions. Our method contains three key components: (1) a cyclical step size schedule where large steps discover new modes and small steps exploit each mode; (2) a cyclical balancing schedule, ensuring "balanced" proposals for given step sizes and high efficiency of the Markov chain; and (3) an automatic tuning scheme for adjusting the hyperparameters in the cyclical schedules, allowing adaptability across diverse datasets with minimal tuning. We prove the non-asymptotic convergence and inference guarantee for our method in general discrete distributions. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in sampling complex multimodal discrete distributions.

Probabilistic prediction aims to compute predictive distributions rather than single point predictions. These distributions enable practitioners to quantify uncertainty, compute risk, and detect outliers. However, most probabilistic methods assume parametric responses, such as Gaussian or Poisson distributions. When these assumptions fail, such models lead to bad predictions and poorly calibrated uncertainty. In this paper, we propose Treeffuser, an easy-to-use method for probabilistic prediction on tabular data. The idea is to learn a conditional diffusion model where the score function is estimated using gradient-boosted trees. The conditional diffusion model makes Treeffuser flexible and non-parametric, while the gradient-boosted trees make it robust and easy to train on CPUs. Treeffuser learns well-calibrated predictive distributions and can handle a wide range of regression tasks---including those with multivariate, multimodal, and skewed responses. We study Treeffuser on synthetic and real data and show that it outperforms existing methods, providing better calibrated probabilistic predictions. We further demonstrate its versatility with an application to inventory allocation under uncertainty using sales data from Walmart. We implement Treeffuser in https://github.com/blei-lab/treeffuser.

We present a new approach for Neural Optimal Transport (NOT) training procedure, capable of accurately and efficiently estimating optimal transportation plan via specific regularization on dual Kantorovich potentials. The main bottleneck of existing NOT solvers is associated with the procedure of finding a near-exact approximation of the conjugate operator (i.e., the c-transform), which is done either by optimizing over non-convex max-min objectives or by the computationally intensive fine-tuning of the initial approximated prediction. We resolve both issues by proposing a new theoretically justified loss in the form of expectile regularization which enforces binding conditions on the learning process of the dual potentials. Such a regularization provides the upper bound estimation over the distribution of possible conjugate potentials and makes the learning stable, completely eliminating the need for additional extensive fine-tuning. Proposed method, called Expectile-Regularized Neural Optimal Transport (ENOT), outperforms previous state-of-the-art approaches in the established Wasserstein-2 benchmark tasks by a large margin (up to a 3-fold improvement in quality and up to a 10-fold improvement in runtime). Moreover, we showcase performance of ENOT for various cost functions in different tasks, such as image generation, demonstrating generalizability and robustness of the proposed algorithm.

Expectation propagation (EP) is a family of algorithms for performing approximate inference in probabilistic models. The updates of EP involve the evaluation of moments—expectations of certain functions—which can be estimated from Monte Carlo (MC) samples. However, the updates are not robust to MC noise when performed naively, and various prior works have attempted to address this issue in different ways. In this work, we provide a novel perspective on the moment-matching updates of EP; namely, that they perform natural-gradient-based optimisation of a variational objective. We use this insight to motivate two new EP variants, with updates that are particularly well-suited to MC estimation. They remain stable and are most sample-efficient when estimated with just a single sample. These new variants combine the benefits of their predecessors and address key weaknesses. In particular, they are easier to tune, offer an improved speed-accuracy trade-off, and do not rely on the use of debiasing estimators. We demonstrate their efficacy on a variety of probabilistic inference tasks.

We study the low-degree hardness of broadcasting on trees. Broadcasting on trees has been extensively studied in statistical physics, in computational biology in relation to phylogenetic reconstruction and in statistics and computer science in the context of block model inference, and as a simple data model for algorithms that may require depth for inference. The inference of the root can be carried by celebrated Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm which achieves Bayes-optimal performance. Despite the fact that this algorithm runs in linear time (using real operations), recent works indicated that this algorithm in fact requires high level of complexity. Moitra, Mossel and Sandon constructed a chain for which estimating the root better than random (for a typical input) is $NC1$ complete. Kohler and Mossel constructed chains such that for trees with $N$ leaves, recovering the root better than random requires a polynomial of degree $N^{\Omega(1)}$. Both works above asked if such complexity bounds hold in general below the celebrated {\em Kesten-Stigum} bound. In this work, we prove that this is indeed the case for low degree polynomials. We show that for the broadcast problem using any Markov chain on trees with $N$ leaves, below the Kesten Stigum bound, any $O(\log N)$ degree polynomial has vanishing correlation with the root. Our result is one of the first low-degree lower bound that is proved in a setting that is not based or easily reduced to a product measure.

Offline model-based optimization seeks to optimize against a learned surrogate model without querying the true oracle objective function during optimization. Such tasks are commonly encountered in protein design, robotics, and clinical medicine where evaluating the oracle function is prohibitively expensive. However, inaccurate surrogate model predictions are frequently encountered along offline optimization trajectories. To address this limitation, we propose *generative adversarial model-based optimization* using **adaptive source critic regularization (aSCR)**—a task- and optimizer- agnostic framework for constraining the optimization trajectory to regions of the design space where the surrogate function is reliable. We propose a computationally tractable algorithm to dynamically adjust the strength of this constraint, and show how leveraging aSCR with standard Bayesian optimization outperforms existing methods on a suite of offline generative design tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/michael-s-yao/gabo.

Current approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) exhibit a crucial limitation: they fail to maintain invariance under reparameterization, i.e. BNNs assign different posterior densities to different parametrizations of identical functions. This creates a fundamental flaw in the application of Bayesian principles as it breaks the correspondence between uncertainty over the parameters with uncertainty over the parametrized function. In this paper, we investigate this issue in the context of the increasingly popular linearized Laplace approximation. Specifically, it has been observed that linearized predictives alleviate the common underfitting problems of the Laplace approximation. We develop a new geometric view of reparametrizations from which we explain the success of linearization. Moreover, we demonstrate that these reparameterization invariance properties can be extended to the original neural network predictive using a Riemannian diffusion process giving a straightforward algorithm for approximate posterior sampling, which empirically improves posterior fit.

Current uncertainty quantification is memory and compute expensive, which hinders practical uptake. To counter, we develop Sketched Lanczos Uncertainty (SLU): an architecture-agnostic uncertainty score that can be applied to pre-trained neural networks with minimal overhead. Importantly, the memory use of SLU only grows logarithmically with the number of model parameters. We combine Lanczos' algorithm with dimensionality reduction techniques to compute a sketch of the leading eigenvectors of a matrix. Applying this novel algorithm to the Fisher information matrix yields a cheap and reliable uncertainty score. Empirically, SLU yields well-calibrated uncertainties, reliably detects out-of-distribution examples, and consistently outperforms existing methods in the low-memory regime.

Scientific modeling applications often require estimating a distribution of parameters consistent with a dataset of observations - an inference task also known as source distribution estimation. This problem can be ill-posed, however, since many different source distributions might produce the same distribution of data-consistent simulations. To make a principled choice among many equally valid sources, we propose an approach which targets the maximum entropy distribution, i.e., prioritizes retaining as much uncertainty as possible. Our method is purely sample-based - leveraging the Sliced-Wasserstein distance to measure the discrepancy between the dataset and simulations - and thus suitable for simulators with intractable likelihoods. We benchmark our method on several tasks, and show that it can recover source distributions with substantially higher entropy than recent source estimation methods, without sacrificing the fidelity of the simulations. Finally, to demonstrate the utility of our approach, we infer source distributions for parameters of the Hodgkin-Huxley model from experimental datasets with hundreds of single-neuron measurements. In summary, we propose a principled method for inferring source distributions of scientific simulator parameters while retaining as much uncertainty as possible.