NeurIPS 2024 Papers

The superior generation capabilities of Denoised Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) have been effectively showcased across a multitude of domains. Recently, the application of DDPMs has extended to time series generation tasks, where they have significantly outperformed other deep generative models, often by a substantial margin. However, we have discovered two main challenges with these methods: 1) the inference time is excessively long; 2) there is potential for improvement in the quality of the generated time series. In this paper, we propose a method based on discrete token modeling technique called Similarity-driven Discrete Transformer (SDformer). Specifically, SDformer utilizes a similarity-driven vector quantization method for learning high-quality discrete token representations of time series, followed by a discrete Transformer for data distribution modeling at the token level. Comprehensive experiments show that our method significantly outperforms competing approaches in terms of the generated time series quality while also ensuring a short inference time. Furthermore, without requiring retraining, SDformer can be directly applied to predictive tasks and still achieve commendable results.

In this paper, we propose test-time Collaborative Lifelong Adaptation (CoLA), which is a general paradigm that can be incorporated with existing advanced TTA methods to boost the adaptation performance and efficiency in a multi-device collaborative manner. Specifically, we maintain and store a set of device-shared _domain knowledge vectors_, which accumulates the knowledge learned from all devices during their lifelong adaptation process. Based on this, CoLA conducts two collaboration strategies for devices with different computational resources and latency demands. 1) Knowledge reprogramming learning strategy jointly learns new domain-specific model parameters and a reweighting term to reprogram existing shared domain knowledge vectors, termed adaptation on _principal agents_. 2) Similarity-based knowledge aggregation strategy solely aggregates the knowledge stored in shared domain vectors according to domain similarities in an optimization-free manner, termed adaptation on _follower agents_. Experiments verify that CoLA is simple but effective, which boosts the efficiency of TTA and demonstrates remarkable superiority in collaborative, lifelong, and single-domain TTA scenarios, e.g., on follower agents, we enhance accuracy by over 30\% on ImageNet-C while maintaining nearly the same efficiency as standard inference. The source code is available at https://github.com/Cascol-Chen/COLA.

Closed-loop neuroscience experimentation, where recorded neural activity is used to modify the experiment on-the-fly, is critical for deducing causal connections and optimizing experimental time. Thus while new optical methods permit on-line recording (via Multi-photon calcium imaging) and stimulation (via holographic stimulation) of large neural populations, a critical barrier in creating closed-loop experiments that can target and modulate single neurons is the real-time inference of neural activity from streaming recordings. In particular, while multi-photon calcium imaging (CI) is crucial in monitoring neural populations, extracting a single neuron's activity from the fluorescence videos often requires batch processing of the video data. Without batch processing, dimmer neurons and events are harder to identify and unrecognized neurons can create false positives when computing the activity of known neurons. We solve these issues by adapting a recently proposed robust time-trace estimator---Sparse Emulation of Unused Dictionary Objects (SEUDO) algorithm---as a basis for a new on-line processing algorithm that simultaneously identifies neurons in the fluorescence video and infers their time traces in a way that is robust to as-yet unidentified neurons. To achieve real-time SEUDO (realSEUDO), we introduce a combination of new algorithmic improvements, a fast C-based implementation, and a new cell finding loop to enable realSEUDO to identify new cells on-the-fly with no "warm-up" period. We demonstrate comparable performance to offline algorithms (e.g., CNMF), and improved performance over the current on-line approach (OnACID) at speeds of 120 Hz on average. This speed is faster than the typical 30 Hz framerate, leaving critical computation time for the computation of feedback in a closed-loop setting.

We present a novel algorithm that efficiently computes near-optimal deterministic policies for constrained reinforcement learning (CRL) problems. Our approach combines three key ideas: (1) value-demand augmentation, (2) action-space approximate dynamic programming, and (3) time-space rounding. Our algorithm constitutes a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for any time-space recursive (TSR) cost criteria. A TSR criteria requires the cost of a policy to be computable recursively over both time and (state) space, which includes classical expectation, almost sure, and anytime constraints. Our work answers three open questions spanning two long-standing lines of research: polynomial-time approximability is possible for 1) anytime-constrained policies, 2) almost-sure-constrained policies, and 3) deterministic expectation-constrained policies.

The number of large language models (LLMs) with varying parameter scales and vocabularies is increasing. While they deliver powerful performance, they also face a set of common optimization needs to meet specific requirements or standards, such as instruction following or avoiding the output of sensitive information from the real world. However, how to reuse the fine-tuning outcomes of one model to other models to reduce training costs remains a challenge. To bridge this gap, we introduce Cross-model Control (CMC), a method that improves multiple LLMs in one-time training with a portable tiny language model. Specifically, we have observed that the logit shift before and after fine-tuning is remarkably similar across different models. Based on this insight, we incorporate a tiny language model with a minimal number of parameters. By training alongside a frozen template LLM, the tiny model gains the capability to alter the logits output by the LLMs. To make this tiny language model applicable to models with different vocabularies, we propose a novel token mapping strategy named PM-MinED. We have conducted extensive experiments on instruction tuning and unlearning tasks, demonstrating the effectiveness of CMC. Our code is available at https://github.com/wujwyi/CMC

Diffusion models (DMs) produce very detailed and high-quality images. Their power results from extensive training on large amounts of data - usually scraped from the internet without proper attribution or consent from content creators. Unfortunately, this practice raises privacy and intellectual property concerns, as DMs can memorize and later reproduce their potentially sensitive or copyrighted training images at inference time. Prior efforts prevent this issue by either changing the input to the diffusion process, thereby preventing the DM from generating memorized samples during inference, or removing the memorized data from training altogether. While those are viable solutions when the DM is developed and deployed in a secure and constantly monitored environment, they hold the risk of adversaries circumventing the safeguards and are not effective when the DM itself is publicly released. To solve the problem, we introduce NeMo, the first method to localize memorization of individual data samples down to the level of neurons in DMs' cross-attention layers. Through our experiments, we make the intriguing finding that in many cases, single neurons are responsible for memorizing particular training samples. By deactivating these memorization neurons, we can avoid the replication of training data at inference time, increase the diversity in the generated outputs, and mitigate the leakage of private and copyrighted data. In this way, our NeMo contributes to a more responsible deployment of DMs.

The increased adoption of Internet of Things (IoT) devices has led to the generation of large data streams with applications in healthcare, sustainability, and robotics. In some cases, deep neural networks have been deployed directly on these resource-constrained units to limit communication overhead, increase efficiency and privacy, and enable real-time applications. However, a common challenge in this setting is the continuous adaptation of models necessary to accommodate changing environments, i.e., data distribution shifts. Test-time adaptation (TTA) has emerged as one potential solution, but its validity has yet to be explored in resource-constrained hardware settings, such as those involving microcontroller units (MCUs). TTA on constrained devices generally suffers from i) memory overhead due to the full backpropagation of a large pre-trained network, ii) lack of support for normalization layers on MCUs, and iii) either memory exhaustion with large batch sizes required for updating or poor performance with small batch sizes. In this paper, we propose TinyTTA, to enable, for the first time, efficient TTA on constrained devices with limited memory. To address the limited memory constraints, we introduce a novel self-ensemble and batch-agnostic early-exit strategy for TTA, which enables continuous adaptation with small batch sizes for reduced memory usage, handles distribution shifts, and improves latency efficiency. Moreover, we develop the TinyTTA Engine, a first-of-its-kind MCU library that enables on-device TTA. We validate TinyTTA on a Raspberry Pi Zero 2W and an STM32H747 MCU. Experimental results demonstrate that TinyTTA improves TTA accuracy by up to 57.6\%, reduces memory usage by up to six times, and achieves faster and more energy-efficient TTA. Notably, TinyTTA is the only framework able to run TTA on MCU STM32H747 with a 512 KB memory constraint while maintaining high performance.

Over the past decade, studies of naturalistic language processing where participants are scanned while listening to continuous text have flourished. Using word embeddings at first, then large language models, researchers have created encoding models to analyze the brain signals. Presenting these models with the same text as the participants allows to identify brain areas where there is a significant correlation between the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series and the ones predicted by the models' artificial neurons. One intriguing finding from these studies is that they have revealed highly symmetric bilateral activation patterns, somewhat at odds with the well-known left lateralization of language processing. Here, we report analyses of an fMRI dataset where we manipulate the complexity of large language models, testing 28 pretrained models from 8 different families, ranging from 124M to 14.2B parameters. First, we observe that the performance of models in predicting brain responses follows a scaling law, where the fit with brain activity increases linearly with the logarithm of the number of parameters of the model (and its performance on natural language processing tasks). Second, although this effect is present in both hemispheres, it is stronger in the left than in the right hemisphere. Specifically, the left-right difference in brain correlation follows a scaling law with the number of parameters. This finding reconciles computational analyses of brain activity using large language models with the classic observation from aphasic patients showing left hemisphere dominance for language.

Approximating invariant subspaces of generalized eigenvalue problems (GEPs) is a fundamental computational problem at the core of machine learning and scientific computing. It is, for example, the root of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction, data visualization, and noise filtering, and of Density Functional Theory (DFT), arguably the most popular method to calculate the electronic structure of materials. Given Hermitian $H,S\in\mathbb{C}^{n\times n}$, where $S$ is positive-definite, let $\Pi_k$ be the true spectral projector on the invariant subspace that is associated with the $k$ smallest (or largest) eigenvalues of the GEP $HC=SC\Lambda$, for some $k\in[n]$. We show that we can compute a matrix $\widetilde\Pi_k$ such that $\lVert\Pi_k-\widetilde\Pi_k\rVert_2\leq \epsilon$, in $O\left( n^{\omega+\eta}\mathrm{polylog}(n,\epsilon^{-1},\kappa(S),\mathrm{gap}_k^{-1}) \right)$ bit operations in the floating point model, for some $\epsilon\in(0,1)$, with probability $1-1/n$. Here, $\eta>0$ is arbitrarily small, $\omega\lesssim 2.372$ is the matrix multiplication exponent, $\kappa(S)=\lVert S\rVert_2\lVert S^{-1}\rVert_2$, and $\mathrm{gap}_k$ is the gap between eigenvalues $k$ and $k+1$. To achieve such provable "forward-error" guarantees, our methods rely on a new $O(n^{\omega+\eta})$ stability analysis for the Cholesky factorization, and a smoothed analysis for computing spectral gaps, which can be of independent interest. Ultimately, we obtain new matrix multiplication-type bit complexity upper bounds for PCA problems, including classical PCA and (randomized) low-rank approximation.

Solar power is a critical source of renewable energy, offering significant potential to lower greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change. However, the cloud induced-variability of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface presents a challenge for integrating solar power into the grid (e.g., storage and backup management). The new generation of geostationary satellites such as GOES-16 has become an important data source for large-scale and high temporal frequency solar radiation forecasting. However, no machine-learning-ready dataset has integrated geostationary satellite data with fine-grained solar radiation information to support forecasting model development and benchmarking with consistent metrics. We present SolarCube, a new ML-ready benchmark dataset for solar radiation forecasting. SolarCube covers 19 study areas distributed over multiple continents: North America, South America, Asia, and Oceania. The dataset supports short (i.e., 30 minutes to 6 hours) and long-term (i.e., day-ahead or longer) solar radiation forecasting at both point-level (i.e., specific locations of monitoring stations) and area-level, by processing and integrating data from multiple sources, including geostationary satellite images, physics-derived solar radiation, and ground station observations from different monitoring networks over the globe. We also evaluated a set of forecasting models for point- and image-based time-series data to develop performance benchmarks under different testing scenarios. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11498739. A Python library is available to conveniently generate different variations of the dataset based on user needs, along with baseline models at https://github.com/Ruohan-Li/SolarCube.

3D particle tracking velocimetry (PTV) is a key technique for analyzing turbulent flow, one of the most challenging computational problems of our century. At the core of 3D PTV is the dual-frame fluid motion estimation algorithm, which tracks particles across two consecutive frames. Recently, deep learning-based methods have achieved impressive accuracy in dual-frame fluid motion estimation; however, they heavily depend on large volumes of labeled data. In this paper, we introduce a new method that is **completely self-supervised and notably outperforms its fully-supervised counterparts while requiring only 1\% of the training samples (without labels) used by previous methods.** Our method features a novel zero-divergence loss that is specific to the domain of turbulent flow. Inspired by the success of splat operation in high-dimensional filtering and random fields, we propose a splat-based implementation for this loss which is both efficient and effective. The self-supervised nature of our method naturally supports test-time optimization, leading to the development of a tailored Dynamic Velocimetry Enhancer (DVE) module. We demonstrate that strong cross-domain robustness is achieved through test-time optimization on unseen leave-one-out synthetic domains and real physical/biological domains. Code, data and models are available at [https://github.com/Forrest-110/FluidMotionNet](https://github.com/Forrest-110/FluidMotionNet).

*Boundaries* are the timestamps at which a class in a time series changes. Recently, representation-based boundary detection has gained popularity, but its emphasis on consecutive distance difference backfires, especially when the changes are gradual. In this paper, we propose a boundary detection method, **RECURVE**, based on a novel change metric, the ***curvature*** of a representation trajectory, to accommodate both gradual and abrupt changes. Here, a sequence of representations in the representation space is interpreted as a trajectory, and a curvature at each timestamp can be computed. Using the theory of random walk, we formally show that the mean curvature is lower near boundaries than at other points. Extensive experiments using diverse real-world time-series datasets confirm the superiority of RECURVE over state-of-the-art methods.

Traditional video restoration approaches were designed to recover clean videos from a specific type of degradation, making them ineffective in handling multiple unknown types of degradation. To address this issue, several studies have been conducted and have shown promising results. However, these studies overlook that the degradations in video usually change over time, dubbed time-varying unknown degradations (TUD). To tackle such a less-touched challenge, we propose an innovative method, termed as All-in-one VidEo Restoration Network (AverNet), which comprises two core modules, i.e., Prompt-Guided Alignment (PGA) module and Prompt-Conditioned Enhancement (PCE) module. Specifically, PGA addresses the issue of pixel shifts caused by time-varying degradations by learning and utilizing prompts to align video frames at the pixel level. To handle multiple unknown degradations, PCE recasts it into a conditional restoration problem by implicitly establishing a conditional map between degradations and ground truths. Thanks to the collaboration between PGA and PCE modules, AverNet empirically demonstrates its effectiveness in recovering videos from TUD. Extensive experiments are carried out on two synthesized datasets featuring seven types of degradations with random corruption levels. The code is available at https://github.com/XLearning-SCU/2024-NeurIPS-AverNet.

Missing data in multivariate time series are common issues that can affect the analysis and downstream applications. Although multivariate time series data generally consist of the trend, seasonal and residual terms, existing works mainly focus on optimizing the modeling for the first two items. However, we find that the residual term is more crucial for getting accurate fillings, since it is more related to the diverse changes of data and the biggest component of imputation errors. Therefore, in this study, we introduce frequency-domain information and design Frequency-aware Generative Models for Multivariate Time Series Imputation (FGTI). Specifically, FGTI employs a high-frequency filter to boost the residual term imputation, supplemented by a dominant-frequency filter for the trend and seasonal imputation. Cross-domain representation learning module then fuses frequency-domain insights with deep representations. Experiments over various datasets with real-world missing values show that FGTI achieves superiority in both data imputation and downstream applications.

In a rapidly evolving job market, skill demand forecasting is crucial as it enables policymakers and businesses to anticipate and adapt to changes, ensuring that workforce skills align with market needs, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, by identifying emerging skill requirements, it directs individuals towards relevant training and education opportunities, promoting continuous self-learning and development. However, the absence of comprehensive datasets presents a significant challenge, impeding research and the advancement of this field. To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models. Based on millions of public job advertisements collected from online recruitment platforms, this dataset encompasses monthly recruitment demand. Our dataset uniquely enables evaluating skill demand forecasting models at various granularities, including occupation, company, and regional levels. We benchmark a range of models on this dataset, evaluating their performance in standard scenarios, in predictions focused on lower value ranges, and in the presence of structural breaks, providing new insights for further research. Our code and dataset are publicly accessible via the https://github.com/Job-SDF/benchmark.

Time series forecasting typically needs to address non-stationary data with evolving trend and seasonal patterns. To address the non-stationarity, reversible instance normalization has been recently proposed to alleviate impacts from the trend with certain statistical measures, e.g., mean and variance. Although they demonstrate improved predictive accuracy, they are limited to expressing basic trends and are incapable of handling seasonal patterns. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a new instance normalization solution, called frequency adaptive normalization (FAN), which extends instance normalization in handling both dynamic trend and seasonal patterns. Specifically, we employ the Fourier transform to identify instance-wise predominant frequent components that cover most non-stationary factors. Furthermore, the discrepancy of those frequency components between inputs and outputs is explicitly modeled as a prediction task with a simple MLP model. FAN is a model-agnostic method that can be applied to arbitrary predictive backbones. We instantiate FAN on four widely used forecasting models as the backbone and evaluate their prediction performance improvements on eight benchmark datasets. FAN demonstrates significant performance advancement, achieving 7.76\%$\sim$37.90\% average improvements in MSE. Our code is publicly available at http://github.com/icannotnamemyself/FAN.

Hypothesis selection, also known as density estimation, is a fundamental problem in statistics and learning theory. Suppose we are given a sample set from an unknown distribution $P$ and a finite class of candidate distributions (called hypotheses) $\mathcal{H} \coloneqq \{H_1, H_2, \ldots, H_n\}$. The aim is to design an algorithm that selects a distribution $\hat H$ in $\mathcal{H}$ that best fits the data. The algorithm's accuracy is measured based on the distance between $\hat{H}$ and $P$ compared to the distance of the closest distribution in $\mathcal{H}$ to $P$ (denoted by $OPT$). Concretely, we aim for $\|\hat{H} - P\|_{TV}$ to be at most $ \alpha \cdot OPT + \epsilon$ for some small $\epsilon$ and $\alpha$. While it is possible to decrease the value of $\epsilon$ as the number of samples increases, $\alpha$ is an inherent characteristic of the algorithm. In fact, one cannot hope to achieve $\alpha < 3$ even when there are only two candidate hypotheses, unless the number of samples is proportional to the domain size of $P$ [Bousquet, Kane, Moran '19]. Finding the best $\alpha$ has been one of the main focuses of studies of the problem since early work of [Devroye, Lugosi '01]. Prior to our work, no algorithm was known that achieves $\alpha = 3$ in near-linear time. We provide the first algorithm that operates in almost linear time ($\tilde{O}(n/\epsilon^3)$ time) and achieves $\alpha = 3$. This result improves upon a long list of results in hypothesis selection. Previously known algorithms either had worse time complexity, a larger factor $\alpha$, or extra assumptions about the problem setting. In addition to this algorithm, we provide another (almost) linear-time algorithm with better dependency on the additive accuracy parameter $\epsilon$, albeit with a slightly worse accuracy parameter, $\alpha = 4$.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently achieved remarkable advancements in time series forecasting (TSF) due to their powerful ability of sequence dependence modeling. To date, existing DNN-based TSF methods still suffer from unreliable predictions for real-world data due to its non-stationarity characteristics, i.e., data distribution varies quickly over time. To mitigate this issue, several normalization methods (e.g., SAN) have recently been specifically designed by normalization in a fixed period/window in the time domain. However, these methods still struggle to capture distribution variations, due to the complex time patterns of time series in the time domain. Based on the fact that wavelet transform can decompose time series into a linear combination of different frequencies, which exhibits distribution variations with time-varying periods, we propose a novel Dual-domain Dynamic Normalization (DDN) to dynamically capture distribution variations in both time and frequency domains. Specifically, our DDN tries to eliminate the non-stationarity of time series via both frequency and time domain normalization in a sliding window way. Besides, our DDN can serve as a plug-in-play module, and thus can be easily incorporated into other forecasting models. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets under different forecasting models demonstrate the superiority of our DDN over other normalization methods. Code will be made available following the review process.

Although transformer-based methods have achieved great success in multi-scale temporal pattern interaction modeling, two key challenges limit their further development: (1) Individual time points contain less semantic information, and leveraging attention to model pair-wise interactions may cause the information utilization bottleneck. (2) Multiple inherent temporal variations (e.g., rising, falling, and fluctuating) entangled in temporal patterns. To this end, we propose Adaptive Multi-Scale Hypergraph Transformer (Ada-MSHyper) for time series forecasting. Specifically, an adaptive hypergraph learning module is designed to provide foundations for modeling group-wise interactions, then a multi-scale interaction module is introduced to promote more comprehensive pattern interactions at different scales. In addition, a node and hyperedge constraint mechanism is introduced to cluster nodes with similar semantic information and differentiate the temporal variations within each scales. Extensive experiments on 11 real-world datasets demonstrate that Ada-MSHyper achieves state-of-the-art performance, reducing prediction errors by an average of 4.56%, 10.38%, and 4.97% in MSE for long-range, short-range, and ultra-long-range time series forecasting, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/shangzongjiang/Ada-MSHyper.