NeurIPS 2024 Papers

Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision breakdown

4,562papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    721.6%
  • Spotlight
    3828.4%
  • Poster
    4,06489.1%
  • Other / unlabeled
    441.0%

Browse all papers

Testing Calibration in Nearly-Linear Time

Lunjia Hu, Arun Jambulapati, Kevin Tian, Chutong Yang

Expand abstract

In the recent literature on machine learning and decision making, calibration has emerged as a desirable and widely-studied statistical property of the outputs of binary prediction models. However, the algorithmic aspects of measuring model calibration have remained relatively less well-explored. Motivated by Blasiok et al '23, which proposed a rigorous framework for measuring distances to calibration, we initiate the algorithmic study of calibration through the lens of property testing. We define the problem of calibration testing from samples where given $n$ draws from a distribution $\mathcal{D}$ on $(\text{predictions}, \text{binary outcomes})$, our goal is to distinguish between the cases where $\mathcal{D}$ is perfectly calibrated or $\epsilon$-far from calibration. We make the simple observation that the empirical smooth calibration linear program can be reformulated as an instance of minimum-cost flow on a highly-structured graph, and design an exact dynamic programming-based solver for it which runs in time $O(n\log^2(n))$, and solves the calibration testing problem information-theoretically optimally in the same time. This improves upon state-of-the-art black-box linear program solvers requiring $\Omega(n^\omega)$ time, where $\omega > 2$ is the exponent of matrix multiplication. We also develop algorithms for tolerant variants of our testing problem improving upon black-box linear program solvers, and give sample complexity lower bounds for alternative calibration measures to the one considered in this work. Finally, we present experiments showing the testing problem we define faithfully captures standard notions of calibration, and that our algorithms scale efficiently to accommodate large sample sizes.

Poster
On the Noise Robustness of In-Context Learning for Text Generation

Hongfu Gao, Feipeng Zhang, Wenyu Jiang, Jun Shu, Feng Zheng, Hongxin Wei

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Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on downstream tasks by in-context learning (ICL), which heavily relies on the quality of demonstrations selected from a large set of annotated examples. Recent works claim that in-context learning is robust to noisy demonstrations in text classification. In this work, we show that, on text generation tasks, noisy annotations significantly hurt the performance of in-context learning. To circumvent the issue, we propose a simple and effective approach called Local Perplexity Ranking (LPR), which replaces the "noisy" candidates with their nearest neighbors that are more likely to be clean. Our method is motivated by analyzing the perplexity deviation caused by noisy labels and decomposing perplexity into inherent perplexity and matching perplexity. Our key idea behind LPR is thus to decouple the matching perplexity by performing the ranking among the neighbors in semantic space. Our approach can prevent the selected demonstrations from including mismatched input-label pairs while preserving the effectiveness of the original selection methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of LPR, improving the EM score by up to 18.75 on common benchmarks with noisy annotations.

Poster
The Well: a Large-Scale Collection of Diverse Physics Simulations for Machine Learning

Ruben Ohana, Michael McCabe, Lucas Thibaut Meyer, Rudy Morel, Fruzsina Julia Agocs, Miguel Beneitez, Marsha Berger, Blakesley Burkhart, Stuart B. Dalziel, Drummond Buschman Fielding, Daniel Fortunato, Jared A. Goldberg, Keiya Hirashima, Yan-Fei Jiang, Rich Kerswell, Suryanarayana Maddu, Jonah M. Miller, Payel Mukhopadhyay, Stefan S. Nixon, Jeff Shen, Romain Watteaux, Bruno Régaldo-Saint Blancard, François Rozet, Liam Holden Parker, Miles Cranmer, Shirley Ho

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Machine learning based surrogate models offer researchers powerful tools for accelerating simulation-based workflows. However, as standard datasets in this space often cover small classes of physical behavior, it can be difficult to evaluate the efficacy of new approaches. To address this gap, we introduce the Well: a large-scale collection of datasets containing numerical simulations of a wide variety of spatiotemporal physical systems. The Well draws from domain experts and numerical software developers to provide 15TB of data across 16 datasets covering diverse domains such as biological systems, fluid dynamics, acoustic scattering, as well as magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of extra-galactic fluids or supernova explosions. These datasets can be used individually or as part of a broader benchmark suite. To facilitate usage of the Well, we provide a unified PyTorch interface for training and evaluating models. We demonstrate the function of this library by introducing example baselines that highlight the new challenges posed by the complex dynamics of the Well. The code and data is available at https://github.com/PolymathicAI/the_well.

Poster
Bayes-optimal learning of an extensive-width neural network from quadratically many samples

Antoine Maillard, Emanuele Troiani, Simon Martin, Florent Krzakala, Lenka Zdeborova, Lenka Zdeborová

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We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a single hidden layer neural network, with a quadratic activation function after the first layer, and random weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the input dimension and the network width are proportionally large. Recent work [Cui et al., 2023] established that linear regression provides Bayes-optimal test error to learn such a function when the number of available samples is only linear in the dimension. That work stressed the open challenge of theoretically analyzing the optimal test error in the more interesting regime where the number of samples is quadratic in the dimension. In this paper, we solve this challenge for quadratic activations and derive a closed-form expression for the Bayes-optimal test error. We also provide an algorithm, that we call GAMP-RIE, which combines approximate message passing with rotationally invariant matrix denoising, and that asymptotically achieves the optimal performance. Technically, our result is enabled by establishing a link with recent works on optimal denoising of extensive-rank matrices and on the ellipsoid fitting problem. We further show empirically that, in the absence of noise, randomly-initialized gradient descent seems to sample the space of weights, leading to zero training loss, and averaging over initialization leads to a test error equal to the Bayes-optimal one.

Poster