NeurIPS 2024 Papers

Synthesizing time series data is pivotal in modern society, aiding effective decision making and ensuring privacy preservation in various scenarios. Time series are associated with various attributes, including trends, seasonality, and external information such as location. Recent research has predominantly focused on random unconditional synthesis or conditional synthesis. Nonetheless, these paradigms generate time series from scratch and are incapable of manipulating existing time series samples. This paper introduces a novel task, called Time Series Editing (TSE), to synthesize time series by manipulating existing time series. The objective is to modify the given time series according to the specified attributes while preserving other properties unchanged. This task is not trivial due to the inadequacy of data coverage and the intricate relationships between time series and their attributes. To address these issues, we introduce a novel diffusion model, called TEdit. The proposed TEdit is trained using a novel bootstrap learning algorithm that effectively enhances the coverage of the original data. It is also equipped with an innovative multi-resolution modeling and generation paradigm to capture the complex relationships between time series and their attributes. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of TEdit for editing specified attributes upon the existing time series data. The project page is at https://seqml.github.io/tse.

Remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) enables non-invasive extraction of blood volume pulse signals through imaging, transforming spatial-temporal data into time series signals. Advances in end-to-end rPPG approaches have focused on this transformation where attention mechanisms are crucial for feature extraction. However, existing methods compute attention disjointly across spatial, temporal, and channel dimensions. Here, we propose the Factorized Self-Attention Module (FSAM), which jointly computes multidimensional attention from voxel embeddings using nonnegative matrix factorization. To demonstrate FSAM's effectiveness, we developed FactorizePhys, an end-to-end 3D-CNN architecture for estimating blood volume pulse signals from raw video frames. Our approach adeptly factorizes voxel embeddings to achieve comprehensive spatial, temporal, and channel attention, enhancing performance of generic signal extraction tasks. Furthermore, we deploy FSAM within an existing 2D-CNN-based rPPG architecture to illustrate its versatility. FSAM and FactorizePhys are thoroughly evaluated against state-of-the-art rPPG methods, each representing different types of architecture and attention mechanism. We perform ablation studies to investigate the architectural decisions and hyperparameters of FSAM. Experiments on four publicly available datasets and intuitive visualization of learned spatial-temporal features substantiate the effectiveness of FSAM and enhanced cross-dataset generalization in estimating rPPG signals, suggesting its broader potential as a multidimensional attention mechanism. The code is accessible at https://github.com/PhysiologicAILab/FactorizePhys.

We present a novel approach for test-time adaptation via online self-training, consisting of two components. First, we introduce a statistical framework that detects distribution shifts in the classifier's entropy values obtained on a stream of unlabeled samples. Second, we devise an online adaptation mechanism that utilizes the evidence of distribution shifts captured by the detection tool to dynamically update the classifier's parameters. The resulting adaptation process drives the distribution of test entropy values obtained from the self-trained classifier to match those of the source domain, building invariance to distribution shifts. This approach departs from the conventional self-training method, which focuses on minimizing the classifier's entropy. Our approach combines concepts in betting martingales and online learning to form a detection tool capable of quickly reacting to distribution shifts. We then reveal a tight relation between our adaptation scheme and optimal transport, which forms the basis of our novel self-supervised loss. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach improves test-time accuracy under distribution shifts while maintaining accuracy and calibration in their absence, outperforming leading entropy minimization methods across various scenarios.

In time-series analysis, many recent works seek to provide a unified view and representation for time-series across multiple domains, leading to the development of foundation models for time-series data. Despite diverse modeling techniques, existing models are black boxes and fail to provide insights and explanations about their representations. In this paper, we present VQShape, a pre-trained, generalizable, and interpretable model for time-series representation learning and classification. By introducing a novel representation for time-series data, we forge a connection between the latent space of VQShape and shape-level features. Using vector quantization, we show that time-series from different domains can be described using a unified set of low-dimensional codes, where each code can be represented as an abstracted shape in the time domain. On classification tasks, we show that the representations of VQShape can be utilized to build interpretable classifiers, achieving comparable performance to specialist models. Additionally, in zero-shot learning, VQShape and its codebook can generalize to previously unseen datasets and domains that are not included in the pre-training process. The code and pre-trained weights are available at https://github.com/YunshiWen/VQShape.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. It, however, is challenging as it requires methods to (1) have high expressive power of representing complicated dependencies along the time axis to capture both long-term progression and seasonal patterns, (2) capture the inter-variate dependencies when it is informative, (3) dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and (4) have efficient training and inference for very long sequences. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera, an expressive variation of the 2-dimensional SSMs with careful design of parameters to maintain high expressive power while keeping the training complexity linear. Using two SSM heads with different discretization processes and input-dependent parameters, Chimera is provably able to learn long-term progression, seasonal patterns, and desirable dynamic autoregressive processes. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically trained to predict in the forward direction of time. However, recent works have shown that prompting these models to look back and critique their own generations can produce useful feedback. Motivated by this, we explore the question of whether LLMs can be empowered to think (predict and score) backwards to provide unsupervised feedback that complements forward LLMs. Towards this, we introduce Time Reversed Language Models (TRLMs), which can score and generate queries when conditioned on responses, effectively functioning in the reverse direction of time. Further, to effectively infer in the response to query direction, we pre-train and fine-tune a language model (TRLM-Ba) in the reverse token order from scratch. We show empirically (and theoretically in a stylized setting) that time-reversed models can indeed complement forward model predictions when used to score the query given response for re-ranking multiple forward generations. We obtain up to 5\% improvement on the widely used AlpacaEval Leaderboard over the competent baseline of best-of-N re-ranking using self log-perplexity scores. We further show that TRLM scoring outperforms conventional forward scoring of response given query, resulting in significant gains in applications such as citation generation and passage retrieval. We next leverage the generative ability of TRLM to augment or provide unsupervised feedback to input safety filters of LLMs, demonstrating a drastic reduction in false negative rate with negligible impact on false positive rates against several attacks published on the popular JailbreakBench leaderboard.

Although pre-trained transformers and reprogrammed text-based LLMs have shown strong performance on time series tasks, the best-performing architectures vary widely across tasks, with most models narrowly focused on specific areas, such as time series forecasting. Unifying predictive and generative time series tasks within a single model remains challenging. We introduce UniTS, a unified multi-task time series model that utilizes task tokenization to integrate predictive and generative tasks into a single framework. UniTS employs a modified transformer block to capture universal time series representations, enabling transferability from a heterogeneous, multi-domain pre-training dataset—characterized by diverse dynamic patterns, sampling rates, and temporal scales—to a wide range of downstream datasets with varied task specifications and data domains. Tested on 38 datasets across human activity sensors, healthcare, engineering, and finance, UniTS achieves superior performance compared to 12 forecasting models, 20 classification models, 18 anomaly detection models, and 16 imputation models, including adapted text-based LLMs. UniTS also demonstrates strong few-shot and prompt capabilities when applied to new domains and tasks. In single-task settings, UniTS outperforms competitive task-specialized time series models. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/mims-harvard/UniTS.

Time series analysis is widely used in many fields such as power energy, economics, and transportation, including different tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. Missing values are widely observed in these tasks, and often leading to unpredictable negative effects on existing methods, hindering their further application. In response to this situation, existing time series imputation methods mainly focus on restoring sequences based on their data characteristics, while ignoring the performance of the restored sequences in downstream tasks. Considering different requirements of downstream tasks (e.g., forecasting), this paper proposes an efficient downstream task-oriented time series imputation evaluation approach. By combining time series imputation with neural network models used for downstream tasks, the gain of different imputation strategies on downstream tasks is estimated without retraining, and the most favorable imputation value for downstream tasks is given by combining different imputation strategies according to the estimated gain.

It is a well-known fact that correlated equilibria can be computed in polynomial time in a large class of concisely represented games using the celebrated Ellipsoid Against Hope algorithm \citep{Papadimitriou2008:Computing, Jiang2015:Polynomial}. However, the landscape of efficiently computable equilibria in sequential (extensive-form) games remains unknown. The Ellipsoid Against Hope does not apply directly to these games, because they do not have the required ``polynomial type'' property. Despite this barrier, \citet{Huang2008:Computing} altered the algorithm to compute exact extensive-form correlated equilibria. In this paper, we generalize the Ellipsoid Against Hope and develop a simple algorithmic framework for efficiently computing saddle-points in bilinear zero-sum games, even when one of the dimensions is exponentially large. Moreover, the framework only requires a ``good-enough-response'' oracle, which is a weakened notion of a best-response oracle. Using this machinery, we develop a general algorithmic framework for computing exact linear $\Phi$-equilibria in any polyhedral game (under mild assumptions), including correlated equilibria in normal-form games, and extensive-form correlated equilibria in extensive-form games. This enables us to give the first polynomial-time algorithm for computing exact linear-deviation correlated equilibria in extensive-form games, thus resolving an open question by \citet{Farina2023:Polynomial}. Furthermore, even for the cases for which a polynomial time algorithm for exact equilibria was already known, our framework provides a conceptually simpler solution.

Delivering precise point and distributional forecasts across a spectrum of prediction horizons represents a significant and enduring challenge in the application of time-series forecasting within various industries. Prior research on developing deep learning models for time-series forecasting has often concentrated on isolated aspects, such as long-term point forecasting or short-term probabilistic estimations. This narrow focus may result in skewed methodological choices and hinder the adaptability of these models to uncharted scenarios. While there is a rising trend in developing universal forecasting models, a thorough understanding of their advantages and drawbacks, especially regarding essential forecasting needs like point and distributional forecasts across short and long horizons, is still lacking. In this paper, we present ProbTS, a benchmark tool designed as a unified platform to evaluate these fundamental forecasting needs and to conduct a rigorous comparative analysis of numerous cutting-edge studies from recent years. We dissect the distinctive data characteristics arising from disparate forecasting requirements and elucidate how these characteristics can skew methodological preferences in typical research trajectories, which often fail to fully accommodate essential forecasting needs. Building on this, we examine the latest models for universal time-series forecasting and discover that our analyses of methodological strengths and weaknesses are also applicable to these universal models. Finally, we outline the limitations inherent in current research and underscore several avenues for future exploration.

Mobile devices have become essential enablers for AI applications, particularly in scenarios that require real-time performance. Vision Transformer (ViT) has become a fundamental cornerstone in this regard due to its high accuracy. Recent efforts have been dedicated to developing various transformer architectures that offer im- proved accuracy while reducing the computational requirements. However, existing research primarily focuses on reducing the theoretical computational complexity through methods such as local attention and model pruning, rather than considering realistic performance on mobile hardware. Although these optimizations reduce computational demands, they either introduce additional overheads related to data transformation (e.g., Reshape and Transpose) or irregular computation/data-access patterns. These result in significant overhead on mobile devices due to their limited bandwidth, which even makes the latency worse than vanilla ViT on mobile. In this paper, we present ECP-ViT, a real-time framework that employs the core-periphery principle inspired by the brain functional networks to guide self-attention in ViTs and enable the deployment of ViT models on smartphones. We identify the main bottleneck in transformer structures caused by data transformation and propose a hardware-friendly core-periphery guided self-attention to decrease computation demands. Additionally, we design the system optimizations for intensive data transformation in pruned models. ECP-ViT, with the proposed algorithm-system co-optimizations, achieves a speedup of 4.6× to 26.9× on mobile GPUs across four datasets: STL-10, CIFAR100, TinyImageNet, and ImageNet.

Time series data are essential in a wide range of machine learning (ML) applications. However, temporal data are often scarce or highly sensitive, limiting data sharing and the use of data-intensive ML methods. A possible solution to this problem is the generation of synthetic datasets that resemble real data. In this work, we introduce Time Series Generative Modeling (TSGM), an open-source framework for the generative modeling and evaluation of synthetic time series datasets. TSGM includes a broad repertoire of machine learning methods: generative models, probabilistic, simulation-based approaches, and augmentation techniques. The framework enables users to evaluate the quality of the produced data from different angles: similarity, downstream effectiveness, predictive consistency, diversity, fairness, and privacy. TSGM is extensible and user-friendly, which allows researchers to rapidly implement their own methods and compare them in a shareable environment. The framework has been tested on open datasets and in production and proved to be beneficial in both cases. https://github.com/AlexanderVNikitin/tsgm

Medical time series (MedTS) data, such as Electroencephalography (EEG) and Electrocardiography (ECG), play a crucial role in healthcare, such as diagnosing brain and heart diseases. Existing methods for MedTS classification primarily rely on handcrafted biomarkers extraction and CNN-based models, with limited exploration of transformer-based models. In this paper, we introduce Medformer, a multi-granularity patching transformer tailored specifically for MedTS classification. Our method incorporates three novel mechanisms to leverage the unique characteristics of MedTS: cross-channel patching to leverage inter-channel correlations, multi-granularity embedding for capturing features at different scales, and two-stage (intra- and inter-granularity) multi-granularity self-attention for learning features and correlations within and among granularities. We conduct extensive experiments on five public datasets under both subject-dependent and challenging subject-independent setups. Results demonstrate Medformer's superiority over 10 baselines, achieving top averaged ranking across five datasets on all six evaluation metrics. These findings underscore the significant impact of our method on healthcare applications, such as diagnosing Myocardial Infarction, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's disease. We release the source code at https://github.com/DL4mHealth/Medformer.

Time Series Classification (TSC) encompasses two settings: classifying entire sequences or classifying segmented subsequences. The raw time series for segmented TSC usually contain Multiple classes with Varying Duration of each class (MVD). Therefore, the characteristics of MVD pose unique challenges for segmented TSC, yet have been largely overlooked by existing works. Specifically, there exists a natural temporal dependency between consecutive instances (segments) to be classified within MVD. However, mainstream TSC models rely on the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), focusing on independently modeling each segment. Additionally, annotators with varying expertise may provide inconsistent boundary labels, leading to unstable performance of noise-free TSC models. To address these challenges, we first formally demonstrate that valuable contextual information enhances the discriminative power of classification instances. Leveraging the contextual priors of MVD at both the data and label levels, we propose a novel consistency learning framework Con4m, which effectively utilizes contextual information more conducive to discriminating consecutive segments in segmented TSC tasks, while harmonizing inconsistent boundary labels for training. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets validate the effectiveness of Con4m in handling segmented TSC tasks on MVD. The source code is available at https://github.com/MrNobodyCali/Con4m.

The vertebrate hippocampus is thought to use recurrent connectivity in area CA3 to support episodic memory recall from partial cues. This brain area also contains place cells, whose location-selective firing fields implement maps supporting spatial memory. Here we show that place cells emerge in networks trained to remember temporally continuous sensory episodes. We model CA3 as a recurrent autoencoder that recalls and reconstructs sensory experiences from noisy and partially occluded observations by agents traversing simulated arenas. The agents move in realistic trajectories modeled from rodents and environments are modeled as continuously varying, high-dimensional, sensory experience maps (spatially smoothed Gaussian random fields). Training our autoencoder to accurately pattern-complete and reconstruct sensory experiences with a constraint on total activity causes spatially localized firing fields, i.e., place cells, to emerge in the encoding layer. The emergent place fields reproduce key aspects of hippocampal phenomenology: a) remapping (maintenance of and reversion to distinct learned maps in different environments), implemented via repositioning of experience manifolds in the network’s hidden layer, b) orthogonality of spatial representations in different arenas, c) robust place field emergence in differently shaped rooms, with single units showing multiple place fields in large or complex spaces, and (d) slow representational drift of place fields. We argue that these results arise because continuous traversal of space makes sensory experience temporally continuous. We make testable predictions: a) rapidly changing sensory context will disrupt place fields, b) place fields will form even if recurrent connections are blocked, but reversion to previously learned representations upon remapping will be abolished, c) the dimension of temporally smooth experience sets the dimensionality of place fields, including during virtual navigation of abstract spaces.

Time series forecasting is crucial for applications across multiple domains and various scenarios. Although Transformers have dramatically advanced the landscape of forecasting, their effectiveness remains debated. Recent findings have indicated that simpler linear models might outperform complex Transformer-based approaches, highlighting the potential for more streamlined architectures. In this paper, we shift the focus from evaluating the overall Transformer architecture to specifically examining the effectiveness of self-attention for time series forecasting. To this end, we introduce a new architecture, Cross-Attention-only Time Series transformer (CATS), that rethinks the traditional transformer framework by eliminating self-attention and leveraging cross-attention mechanisms instead. By establishing future horizon-dependent parameters as queries and enhanced parameter sharing, our model not only improves long-term forecasting accuracy but also reduces the number of parameters and memory usage. Extensive experiment across various datasets demonstrates that our model achieves superior performance with the lowest mean squared error and uses fewer parameters compared to existing models. The implementation of our model is available at: https://github.com/dongbeank/CATS.

Early and accurate detection of anomalous events on the freeway, such as accidents, can improve emergency response and clearance. However, existing delays and mistakes from manual crash reporting records make it a difficult problem to solve. Current large-scale freeway traffic datasets are not designed for anomaly detection and ignore these challenges. In this paper, we introduce the first large-scale lane-level freeway traffic dataset for anomaly detection. Our dataset consists of a month of weekday radar detection sensor data collected in 4 lanes along an 18-mile stretch of Interstate 24 heading toward Nashville, TN, comprising over 3.7 million sensor measurements. We also collect official crash reports from the Tennessee Department of Transportation Traffic Management Center and manually label all other potential anomalies in the dataset. To show the potential for our dataset to be used in future machine learning and traffic research, we benchmark numerous deep learning anomaly detection models on our dataset. We find that unsupervised graph neural network autoencoders are a promising solution for this problem and that ignoring spatial relationships leads to decreased performance. We demonstrate that our methods can reduce reporting delays by over 10 minutes on average while detecting 75% of crashes. Our dataset and all preprocessing code needed to get started are publicly released at https://vu.edu/ft-aed/ to facilitate future research.

We study Bandits with Knapsacks (Bwk) in a piecewise-stationary environment. We propose a novel inventory reserving algorithm which draws new insights into the problem. Suppose parameters $\eta_{\min}, \eta_{\max} \in (0,1]$ respectively lower and upper bound the reward earned and the resources consumed in a time round. Our algorithm achieves a provably near-optimal competitive ratio of $O(\log(\eta_{\max}/\eta_{\min}))$, with a matching lower bound provided. Our performance guarantee is based on a dynamic benchmark, distinguishing our work from existing works on adversarial Bwk who compare with the static benchmark. Furthermore, different from existing non-stationary Bwk work, we do not require a bounded global variation.

Human image animation aims to generate a human motion video from the inputs of a reference human image and a target motion video. Current diffusion-based image animation systems exhibit high precision in transferring human identity into targeted motion, yet they still exhibit irregular quality in their outputs. Their optimal precision is achieved only when the physical compositions (i.e., scale and rotation) of the human shapes in the reference image and target pose frame are aligned. In the absence of such alignment, there is a noticeable decline in fidelity and consistency. Especially, in real-world environments, this compositional misalignment commonly occurs, posing significant challenges to the practical usage of current systems. To this end, we propose Test-time Procrustes Calibration (TPC), which enhances the robustness of diffusion-based image animation systems by maintaining optimal performance even when faced with compositional misalignment, effectively addressing real-world scenarios. The TPC provides a calibrated reference image for the diffusion model, enhancing its capability to understand the correspondence between human shapes in the reference and target images. Our method is simple and can be applied to any diffusion-based image animation system in a model-agnostic manner, improving the effectiveness at test time without additional training.