NeurIPS 2024 Papers

Identifying causal relations from purely observational data typically requires additional assumptions on relations and/or noise. Most current methods restrict their analysis to datasets that are assumed to have pure linear or nonlinear relations, which is often not reflective of real-world datasets that contain a combination of both. This paper presents CaPS, an ordering-based causal discovery algorithm that effectively handles linear and nonlinear relations. CaPS introduces a novel identification criterion for topological ordering and incorporates the concept of "parent score" during the post-processing optimization stage. These scores quantify the strength of the average causal effect, helping to accelerate the pruning process and correct inaccurate predictions in the pruning step. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed solutions outperform state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic data with varying ratios of linear and nonlinear relations. The results obtained from real-world data also support the competitiveness of CaPS. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/E2real/CaPS.

We study the identification of causal effects, motivated by two improvements to identifiability which can be attained if one knows that some variables in a causal graph are functionally determined by their parents (without needing to know the specific functions). First, an unidentifiable causal effect may become identifiable when certain variables are functional. Second, certain functional variables can be excluded from being observed without affecting the identifiability of a causal effect, which may significantly reduce the number of needed variables in observational data. Our results are largely based on an elimination procedure which removes functional variables from a causal graph while preserving key properties in the resulting causal graph, including the identifiability of causal effects.

Video causal reasoning aims to achieve a high-level understanding of video content from a causal perspective. However, current video reasoning tasks are limited in scope, primarily executed in a question-answering paradigm and focusing on short videos containing only a single event and simple causal relationships, lacking comprehensive and structured causality analysis for videos with multiple events. To fill this gap, we introduce a new task and dataset, Multi-Event Causal Discovery (MECD). It aims to uncover the causal relationships between events distributed chronologically across long videos. Given visual segments and textual descriptions of events, MECD requires identifying the causal associations between these events to derive a comprehensive, structured event-level video causal diagram explaining why and how the final result event occurred. To address MECD, we devise a novel framework inspired by the Granger Causality method, using an efficient mask-based event prediction model to perform an Event Granger Test, which estimates causality by comparing the predicted result event when premise events are masked versus unmasked. Furthermore, we integrate causal inference techniques such as front-door adjustment and counterfactual inference to address challenges in MECD like causality confounding and illusory causality. Experiments validate the effectiveness of our framework in providing causal relationships in multi-event videos, outperforming GPT-4o and VideoLLaVA by 5.7% and 4.1%, respectively.

Linear causal models are important tools for modeling causal dependencies and yet in practice, only a subset of the variables can be observed. In this paper, we examine the parameter identifiability of these models by investigating whether the edge coefficients can be recovered given the causal structure and partially observed data. Our setting is more general than that of prior research—we allow all variables, including both observed and latent ones, to be flexibly related, and we consider the coefficients of all edges, whereas most existing works focus only on the edges between observed variables. Theoretically, we identify three types of indeterminacy for the parameters in partially observed linear causal models. We then provide graphical conditions that are sufficient for all parameters to be identifiable and show that some of them are provably necessary. Methodologically, we propose a novel likelihood-based parameter estimation method that addresses the variance indeterminacy of latent variables in a specific way and can asymptotically recover the underlying parameters up to trivial indeterminacy. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate our identifiability theory and the effectiveness of the proposed method in the finite-sample regime.

Causal discovery is essential for understanding relationships among variables of interest in many scientific domains. In this paper, we focus on permutation-based methods for learning causal graphs in Linear Gaussian Acyclic Models (LiGAMs), where the permutation encodes a causal ordering of the variables. Existing methods in this setting are not scalable due to their high computational complexity. These methods are comprised of two main components: (i) constructing a specific DAG, $\mathcal{G}^\pi$, for a given permutation $\pi$, which represents the best structure that can be learned from the available data while adhering to $\pi$, and (ii) searching over the space of permutations (i.e., causal orders) to minimize the number of edges in $\mathcal{G}^\pi$. We introduce QWO, a novel approach that significantly enhances the efficiency of computing $\mathcal{G}^\pi$ for a given permutation $\pi$. QWO has a speed-up of $O(n^2)$ ($n$ is the number of variables) compared to the state-of-the-art BIC-based method, making it highly scalable. We show that our method is theoretically sound and can be integrated into existing search strategies such as GRASP and hill-climbing-based methods to improve their performance.

Causal discovery with time series data remains a challenging yet increasingly important task across many scientific domains. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) and related methods have been proposed to study time series that are generated by dynamical systems, where traditional approaches like Granger causality are unreliable. However, CCM often yields inaccurate results depending upon the quality of the data. We propose the Tangent Space Causal Inference (TSCI) method for detecting causalities in dynamical systems. TSCI works by considering vector fields as explicit representations of the systems' dynamics and checks for the degree of synchronization between the learned vector fields. The TSCI approach is model-agnostic and can be used as a drop-in replacement for CCM and its generalizations. We first present a basic version of the TSCI algorithm, which is shown to be more effective than the basic CCM algorithm with very little additional computation. We additionally present augmented versions of TSCI that leverage the expressive power of latent variable models and deep learning. We validate our theory on standard systems, and we demonstrate improved causal inference performance across a number of benchmark tasks.

Differentiable structure learning is a novel line of causal discovery research that transforms the combinatorial optimization of structural models into a continuous optimization problem. However, the field has lacked feasible methods to integrate partial order constraints, a critical prior information typically used in real-world scenarios, into the differentiable structure learning framework. The main difficulty lies in adapting these constraints, typically suited for the space of total orderings, to the continuous optimization context of structure learning in the graph space. To bridge this gap, this paper formalizes a set of equivalent constraints that map partial orders onto graph spaces and introduces a plug-and-play module for their efficient application. This module preserves the equivalent effect of partial order constraints in the graph space, backed by theoretical validations of correctness and completeness. It significantly enhances the quality of recovered structures while maintaining good efficiency, which learns better structures using 90\% fewer samples than the data-based method on a real-world dataset. This result, together with a comprehensive evaluation on synthetic cases, demonstrates our method's ability to effectively improve differentiable structure learning with partial orders.

The study of cells and their responses to genetic or chemical perturbations promises to accelerate the discovery of therapeutics targets. However, designing adequate and insightful models for such data is difficult because the response of a cell to perturbations essentially depends on contextual covariates (e.g., genetic background or type of the cell). There is therefore a need for models that can identify interactions between drugs and contextual covariates. This is crucial for discovering therapeutics targets, as such interactions may reveal drugs that affect certain cell types but not others. We tackle this problem with a novel Factorized Causal Representation (FCR) learning method, an identifiable deep generative model that reveals causal structure in single-cell perturbation data from several cell lines. FCR learns multiple cellular representations that are disentangled, comprised of covariate-specific (Z_x), treatment-specific (Z_t) and interaction-specific (Z_tx) representations. Based on recent advances of non-linear ICA theory, we prove the component-wise identifiability of Z_tx and block-wise identifiability of Z_t and Z_x. Then, we present our implementation of FCR, and empirically demonstrate that FCR outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in various tasks across four single-cell datasets.

We present Causal Amortized Active Structure Learning (CAASL), an active intervention design policy that can select interventions that are adaptive, real-time and that does not require access to the likelihood. This policy, an amortized network based on the transformer, is trained with reinforcement learning on a simulator of the design environment, and a reward function that measures how close the true causal graph is to a causal graph posterior inferred from the gathered data. On synthetic data and a single-cell gene expression simulator, we demonstrate empirically that the data acquired through our policy results in a better estimate of the underlying causal graph than alternative strategies. Our design policy successfully achieves amortized intervention design on the distribution of the training environment while also generalizing well to distribution shifts in test-time design environments. Further, our policy also demonstrates excellent zero-shot generalization to design environments with dimensionality higher than that during training, and to intervention types that it has not been trained on.

Unobserved discrete data are ubiquitous in many scientific disciplines, and how to learn the causal structure of these latent variables is crucial for uncovering data patterns. Most studies focus on the linear latent variable model or impose strict constraints on latent structures, which fail to address cases in discrete data involving non-linear relationships or complex latent structures. To achieve this, we explore a tensor rank condition on contingency tables for an observed variable set $\mathbf{X}_p$, showing that the rank is determined by the minimum support of a specific conditional set (not necessary in $\mathbf{X}_p$) that d-separates all variables in $\mathbf{X}_p$. By this, one can locate the latent variable through probing the rank on different observed variables set, and further identify the latent causal structure under some structure assumptions. We present the corresponding identification algorithm and conduct simulated experiments to verify the effectiveness of our method. In general, our results elegantly extend the identification boundary for causal discovery with discrete latent variables and expand the application scope of causal discovery with latent variables.

There are two issues in news-driven multi-stock movement prediction tasks that are not well solved in the existing works. On the one hand, "relation discovery" is a pivotal part when leveraging the price information of other stocks to achieve accurate stock movement prediction. Given that stock relations are often unidirectional, such as the "supplier-consumer" relationship, causal relations are more appropriate to capture the impact between stocks. On the other hand, there is substantial noise existing in the news data leading to extracting effective information with difficulty. With these two issues in mind, we propose a novel framework called CausalStock for news-driven multi-stock movement prediction, which discovers the temporal causal relations between stocks. We design a lag-dependent temporal causal discovery mechanism to model the temporal causal graph distribution. Then a Functional Causal Model is employed to encapsulate the discovered causal relations and predict the stock movements. Additionally, we propose a Denoised News Encoder by taking advantage of the excellent text evaluation ability of large language models (LLMs) to extract useful information from massive news data. The experiment results show that CausalStock outperforms the strong baselines for both news-driven multi-stock movement prediction and multi-stock movement prediction tasks on six real-world datasets collected from the US, China, Japan, and UK markets. Moreover, getting benefit from the causal relations, CausalStock could offer a clear prediction mechanism with good explainability.

We study causal effect estimation in a setting where the data are not i.i.d.$\ $(independent and identically distributed). We focus on exchangeable data satisfying an assumption of independent causal mechanisms. Traditional causal effect estimation frameworks, e.g., relying on structural causal models and do-calculus, are typically limited to i.i.d. data and do not extend to more general exchangeable generative processes, which naturally arise in multi-environment data. To address this gap, we develop a generalized framework for exchangeable data and introduce a truncated factorization formula that facilitates both the identification and estimation of causal effects in our setting. To illustrate potential applications, we introduce a causal Pólya urn model and demonstrate how intervention propagates effects in exchangeable data settings. Finally, we develop an algorithm that performs simultaneous causal discovery and effect estimation given multi-environment data.

Detecting dependencies among variables is a fundamental task across scientific disciplines. We propose a novel neural network model for graph structure inference, which aims to learn a mapping from observational data to the corresponding underlying dependence structures. The model is trained with variably shaped and coupled simulated input data and requires only a single forward pass through the trained network for inference. Central to our approach is a novel bilinear attention mechanism (BAM) operating on covariance matrices of transformed data while respecting the geometry of the manifold of symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices. Inspired by graphical lasso methods, our model optimizes over continuous graph representations in the SPD space, where inverse covariance matrices encode conditional independence relations. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the robustness of our method in detecting diverse dependencies, excelling in undirected graph estimation and showing competitive performance in completed partially directed acyclic graph estimation via a novel two-step approach. The trained model effectively detects causal relationships and generalizes well across different functional forms of nonlinear dependencies.