Risk Modeling

Noisy labels pose a common challenge for training accurate deep neural networks. To mitigate label noise, prior studies have proposed various robust loss functions to achieve noise tolerance in the presence of label noise, particularly symmetric losses. However, they usually suffer from the underfitting issue due to the overly strict symmetric condition. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective approach for relaxing the symmetric condition, namely **$\epsilon$-softmax**, which simply modifies the outputs of the softmax layer to approximate one-hot vectors with a controllable error $\epsilon$. Essentially, ***$\epsilon$-softmax** not only acts as an alternative for the softmax layer, but also implicitly plays the crucial role in modifying the loss function.* We prove theoretically that **$\epsilon$-softmax** can achieve noise-tolerant learning with controllable excess risk bound for almost any loss function. Recognizing that **$\epsilon$-softmax**-enhanced losses may slightly reduce fitting ability on clean datasets, we further incorporate them with one symmetric loss, thereby achieving a better trade-off between robustness and effective learning. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in mitigating synthetic and real-world label noise.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned models to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Scaling machine learning models significantly improves their performance. However, such gains come at the cost of inference being slow and resource-intensive. Early-exit neural networks (EENNs) offer a promising solution: they accelerate inference by allowing intermediate layers to exit and produce a prediction early. Yet a fundamental issue with EENNs is how to determine when to exit without severely degrading performance. In other words, when is it 'safe' for an EENN to go 'fast'? To address this issue, we investigate how to adapt frameworks of risk control to EENNs. Risk control offers a distribution-free, post-hoc solution that tunes the EENN's exiting mechanism so that exits only occur when the output is of sufficient quality. We empirically validate our insights on a range of vision and language tasks, demonstrating that risk control can produce substantial computational savings, all the while preserving user-specified performance goals.

This paper introduces the risk-sensitive control as inference (RCaI) that extends CaI by using Rényi divergence variational inference. RCaI is shown to be equivalent to log-probability regularized risk-sensitive control, which is an extension of the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) control. We also prove that the risk-sensitive optimal policy can be obtained by solving a soft Bellman equation, which reveals several equivalences between RCaI, MaxEnt control, the optimal posterior for CaI, and linearly-solvable control. Moreover, based on RCaI, we derive the risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) methods: the policy gradient and the soft actor-critic. As the risk-sensitivity parameter vanishes, we recover the risk-neutral CaI and RL, which means that RCaI is a unifying framework. Furthermore, we give another risk-sensitive generalization of the MaxEnt control using Rényi entropy regularization. We show that in both of our extensions, the optimal policies have the same structure even though the derivations are very different.

The field of risk-constrained reinforcement learning (RCRL) has been developed to effectively reduce the likelihood of worst-case scenarios by explicitly handling risk-measure-based constraints. However, the nonlinearity of risk measures makes it challenging to achieve convergence and optimality. To overcome the difficulties posed by the nonlinearity, we propose a spectral risk measure-constrained RL algorithm, spectral-risk-constrained policy optimization (SRCPO), a bilevel optimization approach that utilizes the duality of spectral risk measures. In the bilevel optimization structure, the outer problem involves optimizing dual variables derived from the risk measures, while the inner problem involves finding an optimal policy given these dual variables. The proposed method, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to guarantee convergence to an optimum in the tabular setting. Furthermore, the proposed method has been evaluated on continuous control tasks and showed the best performance among other RCRL algorithms satisfying the constraints. Our code is available at https://github.com/rllab-snu/Spectral-Risk-Constrained-RL.

The well-known $\textit{empirical risk minimization}$ (ERM) principle is the basis of many widely used machine learning algorithms, and plays an essential role in the classical PAC theory. A common description of a learning algorithm's performance is its so-called “learning curve”, that is, the decay of the expected error as a function of the input sample size. As the PAC model fails to explain the behavior of learning curves, recent research has explored an alternative universal learning model and has ultimately revealed a distinction between optimal universal and uniform learning rates (Bousquet et al., 2021). However, a basic understanding of such differences with a particular focus on the ERM principle has yet to be developed. In this paper, we consider the problem of universal learning by ERM in the realizable case and study the possible universal rates. Our main result is a fundamental $\textit{tetrachotomy}$: there are only four possible universal learning rates by ERM, namely, the learning curves of any concept class learnable by ERM decay either at $e^{-n}$, $1/n$, $\log{(n)}/n$, or arbitrarily slow rates. Moreover, we provide a complete characterization of which concept classes fall into each of these categories, via new complexity structures. We also develop new combinatorial dimensions which supply sharp asymptotically-valid constant factors for these rates, whenever possible.