NeurIPS 2023 Papers

Dealing with distribution shifts is one of the central challenges for modern machine learning. One fundamental situation is the covariate shift, where the input distributions of data change from the training to testing stages while the input-conditional output distribution remains unchanged. In this paper, we initiate the study of a more challenging scenario --- continuous covariate shift --- in which the test data appear sequentially, and their distributions can shift continuously. Our goal is to adaptively train the predictor such that its prediction risk accumulated over time can be minimized. Starting with the importance-weighted learning, we theoretically show the method works effectively if the time-varying density ratios of test and train inputs can be accurately estimated. However, existing density ratio estimation methods would fail due to data scarcity at each time step. To this end, we propose an online density ratio estimation method that can appropriately reuse historical information. Our method is proven to perform well by enjoying a dynamic regret bound, which finally leads to an excess risk guarantee for the predictor. Empirical results also validate the effectiveness.

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) has been widely applied in improving model generalization on unlabeled target data. However, accurately selecting the best UDA model for the target domain is challenging due to the absence of labeled target data and domain distribution shifts. Traditional model selection approaches involve training extra models with source data to estimate the target validation risk. Recent studies propose practical methods that are based on measuring various properties of model predictions on target data. Although effective for some UDA models, these methods often lack stability and may lead to poor selections for other UDA models. In this paper, we present MixVal, an innovative model selection method that operates solely with unlabeled target data during inference. MixVal leverages mixed target samples with pseudo labels to directly probe the learned target structure by each UDA model. Specifically, MixVal employs two distinct types of probes: the intra-cluster mixed samples for evaluating neighborhood density and the inter-cluster mixed samples for investigating the classification boundary. With this comprehensive probing strategy, MixVal elegantly combines the strengths of two state-of-the-art model selection methods, Entropy and SND. We extensively evaluate MixVal on 11 UDA methods across 4 adaptation settings, including classification and segmentation tasks. Experimental results consistently demonstrate that MixVal achieves state-of-the-art performance and maintains exceptional stability in model selection. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/LHXXHB/MixVal}.

Procedural Content Generation (PCG) is a technique to generate complex and diverse environments in an automated way. However, while generating content with PCG methods is often straightforward, generating meaningful content that reflects specific intentions and constraints remains challenging. Furthermore, many PCG algorithms lack the ability to generate content in an open-ended manner. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown to be incredibly effective in many diverse domains. These trained LLMs can be fine-tuned, re-using information and accelerating training for new tasks. Here, we introduce MarioGPT, a fine-tuned GPT2 model trained to generate tile-based game levels, in our case Super Mario Bros levels. MarioGPT can not only generate diverse levels, but can be text-prompted for controllable level generation, addressing one of the key challenges of current PCG techniques. As far as we know, MarioGPT is the first text-to-level model and combined with novelty search it enables the generation of diverse levels with varying play-style dynamics (i.e. player paths) and the open-ended discovery of an increasingly diverse range of content. Code available at https://github.com/shyamsn97/mario-gpt.

We propose a novel algorithm for data augmentation in nonlinear over-parametrized regression. Our data augmentation algorithm borrows from the literature on causality. Contrary to the current state-of-the-art solutions that rely on modifications of Mixup algorithm, we extend the recently proposed distributionally robust Anchor regression (AR) method for data augmentation. Our Anchor Data Augmentation (ADA) uses several replicas of the modified samples in AR to provide more training examples, leading to more robust regression predictions. We apply ADA to linear and nonlinear regression problems using neural networks. ADA is competitive with state-of-the-art C-Mixup solutions.

Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) is a sub-domain of classification problems with positive and negative labels and a "bag" of inputs, where the label is positive if and only if a positive element is contained within the bag, and otherwise is negative. Training in this context requires associating the bag-wide label to instance-level information, and implicitly contains a causal assumption and asymmetry to the task (i.e., you can't swap the labels without changing the semantics). MIL problems occur in healthcare (one malignant cell indicates cancer), cyber security (one malicious executable makes an infected computer), and many other tasks. In this work, we examine five of the most prominent deep-MIL models and find that none of them respects the standard MIL assumption. They are able to learn anti-correlated instances, i.e., defaulting to "positive" labels until seeing a negative counter-example, which should not be possible for a correct MIL model. We suspect that enhancements and other works derived from these models will share the same issue. In any context in which these models are being used, this creates the potential for learning incorrect models, which creates risk of operational failure. We identify and demonstrate this problem via a proposed ``algorithmic unit test'', where we create synthetic datasets that can be solved by a MIL respecting model, and which clearly reveal learning that violates MIL assumptions. The five evaluated methods each fail one or more of these tests. This provides a model-agnostic way to identify violations of modeling assumptions, which we hope will be useful for future development and evaluation of MIL models.

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework---thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models---could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

Many unsupervised methods have recently been proposed for multivariate time series anomaly detection. However, existing works mainly focus on stable data yet often omit the drift generated from non-stationary environments, which may lead to numerous false alarms. We propose **D**ynamic **D**ecomposition with **D**iffusion **R**econstruction (D$^3$R), a novel anomaly detection network for real-world unstable data to fill the gap. D$^3$R tackles the drift via decomposition and reconstruction. In the decomposition procedure, we utilize data-time mix-attention to dynamically decompose long-period multivariate time series, overcoming the limitation of the local sliding window. The information bottleneck is critical yet difficult to determine in the reconstruction procedure. To avoid retraining once the bottleneck changes, we control it externally by noise diffusion and directly reconstruct the polluted data. The whole model can be trained end-to-end. Extensive experiments on various real-world datasets demonstrate that D$^3$R significantly outperforms existing methods, with a 11% average relative improvement over the previous SOTA models.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are the predominant model used for a variety of medical image analysis tasks. At inference time, these models are computationally intensive, especially with volumetric data.In principle, it is possible to trade accuracy for computational efficiency by manipulating the rescaling factor in the downsample and upsample layers of CNN architectures.However, properly exploring the accuracy-efficiency trade-off is prohibitively expensive with existing models.To address this, we introduce Scale-Space HyperNetworks (SSHN), a method that learns a spectrum of CNNs with varying internal rescaling factors.A single SSHN characterizes an entire Pareto accuracy-efficiency curve of models that match, and occasionally surpass, the outcomes of training many separate networks with fixed rescaling factors.We demonstrate the proposed approach in several medical image analysis applications, comparing SSHN against strategies with both fixed and dynamic rescaling factors.We find that SSHN consistently provides a better accuracy-efficiency trade-off at a fraction of the training cost. Trained SSHNs enable the user to quickly choose a rescaling factor that appropriately balances accuracy and computational efficiency for their particular needs at inference.

Viewing Transformers as interacting particle systems, we describe the geometry of learned representations when the weights are not time-dependent. We show that particles, representing tokens, tend to cluster toward particular limiting objects as time tends to infinity. Using techniques from dynamical systems and partial differential equations, we show that type of limiting object that emerges depends on the spectrum of the value matrix. Additionally, in the one-dimensional case we prove that the self-attention matrix converges to a low-rank Boolean matrix. The combination of these results mathematically confirms the empirical observation made by Vaswani et al. [ VSP`17 ] that leaders appear in a sequence of tokens when processed by Transformers.

Recent 4D shape representations model continuous temporal evolution of implicit shapes by (1) learning query flows without leveraging shape and articulation priors or (2) decoding shape occupancies separately for each time value. Thus, they do not effectively capture implicit correspondences between articulated shapes or regularize jittery temporal deformations. In this work, we present FourierHandFlow, which is a spatio-temporally continuous representation for human hands that combines a 3D occupancy field with articulation-aware query flows represented as Fourier series. Given an input RGB sequence, we aim to learn a fixed number of Fourier coefficients for each query flow to guarantee smooth and continuous temporal shape dynamics. To effectively model spatio-temporal deformations of articulated hands, we compose our 4D representation based on two types of Fourier query flow: (1) pose flow that models query dynamics influenced by hand articulation changes via implicit linear blend skinning and (2) shape flow that models query-wise displacement flow. In the experiments, our method achieves state-of-the-art results on video-based 4D reconstruction while being computationally more efficient than the existing 3D/4D implicit shape representations. We additionally show our results on motion inter- and extrapolation and texture transfer using the learned correspondences of implicit shapes. To the best of our knowledge, FourierHandFlow is the first neural 4D continuous hand representation learned from RGB videos. The code will be publicly accessible.

We propose the Multimodal Clinical Benchmark for Emergency Care (MC-BEC), a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating foundation models in Emergency Medicine using a dataset of 100K+ continuously monitored Emergency Department visits from 2020-2022. MC-BEC focuses on clinically relevant prediction tasks at timescales from minutes to days, including predicting patient decompensation, disposition, and emergency department (ED) revisit, and includes a standardized evaluation framework with train-test splits and evaluation metrics. The multimodal dataset includes a wide range of detailed clinical data, including triage information, prior diagnoses and medications, continuously measured vital signs, electrocardiogram and photoplethysmograph waveforms, orders placed and medications administered throughout the visit, free-text reports of imaging studies, and information on ED diagnosis, disposition, and subsequent revisits. We provide performance baselines for each prediction task to enable the evaluation of multimodal, multitask models. We believe that MC-BEC will encourage researchers to develop more effective, generalizable, and accessible foundation models for multimodal clinical data.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been successful in various domains like robotics, game playing, and simulation. While RL agents have shown impressive capabilities in their specific tasks, they insufficiently adapt to new tasks. In supervised learning, this adaptation problem is addressed by large-scale pre-training followed by fine-tuning to new down-stream tasks. Recently, pre-training on multiple tasks has been gaining traction in RL. However, fine-tuning a pre-trained model often suffers from catastrophic forgetting. That is, the performance on the pre-training tasks deteriorates when fine-tuning on new tasks. To investigate the catastrophic forgetting phenomenon, we first jointly pre-train a model on datasets from two benchmark suites, namely Meta-World and DMControl. Then, we evaluate and compare a variety of fine-tuning methods prevalent in natural language processing, both in terms of performance on new tasks, and how well performance on pre-training tasks is retained. Our study shows that with most fine-tuning approaches, the performance on pre-training tasks deteriorates significantly. Therefore, we propose a novel method, Learning-to-Modulate (L2M), that avoids the degradation of learned skills by modulating the information flow of the frozen pre-trained model via a learnable modulation pool. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Continual-World benchmark, while retaining performance on the pre-training tasks. Finally, to aid future research in this area, we release a dataset encompassing 50 Meta-World and 16 DMControl tasks.

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) serve as one type of efficient model to process spatio-temporal patterns in time series, such as the Address-Event Representation data collected from Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS). Although convolutional SNNs have achieved remarkable performance on these AER datasets, benefiting from the predominant spatial feature extraction ability of convolutional structure, they ignore temporal features related to sequential time points. In this paper, we develop a recurrent spiking neural network (RSNN) model embedded with an advanced spiking convolutional block attention module (SCBAM) component to combine both spatial and temporal features of spatio-temporal patterns. It invokes the history information in spatial and temporal channels adaptively through SCBAM, which brings the advantages of efficient memory calling and history redundancy elimination. The performance of our model was evaluated in DVS128-Gesture dataset and other time-series datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed SRNN-SCBAM model makes better use of the history information in spatial and temporal dimensions with less memory space, and achieves higher accuracy compared to other models.

We propose a new family of label randomizers for training _regression_ models under the constraint of label differential privacy (DP). In particular, we leverage the trade-offs between bias and variance to construct better label randomizers depending on a privately estimated prior distribution over the labels. We demonstrate that these randomizers achieve state-of-the-art privacy-utility trade-offs on several datasets, highlighting the importance of reducing bias when training neural networks with label DP. We also provide theoretical results shedding light on the structural properties of the optimal unbiased randomizers.

We study matrix estimation problems arising in reinforcement learning with low-rank structure. In low-rank bandits, the matrix to be recovered specifies the expected arm rewards, and for low-rank Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), it characterizes the transition kernel of the MDP. In both cases, each entry of the matrix carries important information, and we seek estimation methods with low entry-wise prediction error. Importantly, these methods further need to accommodate for inherent correlations in the available data (e.g. for MDPs, the data consists of system trajectories). We investigate the performance of simple spectral-based matrix estimation approaches: we show that they efficiently recover the singular subspaces of the matrix and exhibit nearly-minimal entry-wise prediction error. These new results on low-rank matrix estimation make it possible to devise reinforcement learning algorithms that fully exploit the underlying low-rank structure. We provide two examples of such algorithms: a regret minimization algorithm for low-rank bandit problems, and a best policy identification algorithm for low-rank MDPs. Both algorithms yield state-of-the-art performance guarantees.

No-regret learners seek to minimize the difference between the loss they cumulated through the actions they played, and the loss they would have cumulated in hindsight had they consistently modified their behavior according to some strategy transformation function. The size of the set of transformations considered by the learner determines a natural notion of rationality. As the set of transformations each learner considers grows, the strategies played by the learners recover more complex game-theoretic equilibria, including correlated equilibria in normal-form games and extensive-form correlated equilibria in extensive-form games. At the extreme, a no-swap-regret agent is one that minimizes regret against the set of all functions from the set of strategies to itself. While it is known that the no-swap-regret condition can be attained efficiently in nonsequential (normal-form) games, understanding what is the strongest notion of rationality that can be attained efficiently in the worst case in sequential (extensive-form) games is a longstanding open problem. In this paper we provide a positive result, by showing that it is possible, in any sequential game, to retain polynomial-time (in the game tree size) iterations while achieving sublinear regret with respect to all linear transformations of the mixed strategy space, a notion called no-linear-swap regret. This notion of hindsight rationality is as strong as no-swap-regret in nonsequential games, and stronger than no-trigger-regret in sequential games—thereby proving the existence of a subset of extensive-form correlated equilibria robust to linear deviations, which we call linear-deviation correlated equilibria, that can be approached efficiently.

The decision tree is a flexible machine-learning model that finds its success in numerous applications. It is usually fitted in a recursively greedy manner using CART. In this paper, we study the convergence rate of CART under a regression setting. First, we prove an upper bound on the prediction error of CART under a sufficient impurity decrease (SID) condition \cite{chi2020asymptotic} -- our result is an improvement over the known result by \cite{chi2020asymptotic} under a similar assumption. We show via examples that this error bound cannot be further improved by more than a constant or a log factor. Second, we introduce a few easy-to-check sufficient conditions of the SID condition. In particular, we show that the SID condition can be satisfied by an additive model when the component functions satisfy a ``locally reverse Poincare inequality". We discuss a few familiar function classes in non-parametric estimation to demonstrate the usefulness of this conception.

Large language models (LLMs) solve problems more accurately and interpretably when instructed to work out the answer step by step using a "chain-of-thought" (CoT) prompt. One can also improve LLMs' performance on a specific task by supervised fine-tuning, i.e., by using gradient ascent on some tunable parameters to maximize the average log-likelihood of correct answers from a labeled training set. Naively combining CoT with supervised tuning requires supervision not just of the correct answers, but also of detailed rationales that lead to those answers; these rationales are expensive to produce by hand. Instead, we propose a fine-tuning strategy that tries to maximize the \emph{marginal} log-likelihood of generating a correct answer using CoT prompting, approximately averaging over all possible rationales. The core challenge is sampling from the posterior over rationales conditioned on the correct answer; we address it using a simple Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm inspired by the self-taught reasoner (STaR), memoized wake-sleep, Markovian score climbing, and persistent contrastive divergence. This algorithm also admits a novel control-variate technique that drives the variance of our gradient estimates to zero as the model improves. Applying our technique to GSM8K and the tasks in BIG-Bench Hard, we find that this MCMC-EM fine-tuning technique typically improves the model's accuracy on held-out examples more than STaR or prompt-tuning with or without CoT.

We propose a new score-based approach to generate 3D molecules represented as atomic densities on regular grids. First, we train a denoising neural network that learns to map from a smooth distribution of noisy molecules to the distribution of real molecules. Then, we follow the _neural empirical Bayes_ framework [Saremi and Hyvarinen, 2019] and generate molecules in two steps: (i) sample noisy density grids from a smooth distribution via underdamped Langevin Markov chain Monte Carlo, and (ii) recover the "clean" molecule by denoising the noisy grid with a single step. Our method, _VoxMol_, generates molecules in a fundamentally different way than the current state of the art (ie, diffusion models applied to atom point clouds). It differs in terms of the data representation, the noise model, the network architecture and the generative modeling algorithm. Our experiments show that VoxMol captures the distribution of drug-like molecules better than state of the art, while being faster to generate samples.