NeurIPS 2023 Papers

The causal revolution has stimulated interest in understanding complex relationships in various fields. Most of the existing methods aim to discover causal relationships among all variables within a complex large-scale graph. However, in practice, only a small subset of variables in the graph are relevant to the outcomes of interest. Consequently, causal estimation with the full causal graph---particularly given limited data---could lead to numerous *falsely discovered, spurious* variables that exhibit high correlation with, but exert no causal impact on, the target outcome. In this paper, we propose learning a class of *necessary and sufficient causal graphs (NSCG)* that exclusively comprises causally relevant variables for an outcome of interest, which we term *causal features*. The key idea is to employ *probabilities of causation* to systematically evaluate the importance of features in the causal graph, allowing us to identify a subgraph relevant to the outcome of interest. To learn NSCG from data, we develop a *necessary and sufficient causal structural learning (NSCSL)* algorithm, by establishing theoretical properties and relationships between probabilities of causation and natural causal effects of features. Across empirical studies of simulated and real data, we demonstrate that NSCSL outperforms existing algorithms and can reveal crucial yeast genes for target heritable traits of interest.

As more and more decisions that have a significant ethical dimension are being outsourced to AI systems, it is important to have a definition of _moral responsibility_ that can be applied to AI systems. Moral responsibility for an outcome of an agent who performs some action is commonly taken to involve both a _causal condition_ and an _epistemic condition_: the action should cause the outcome, and the agent should have been aware - in some form or other - of the possible moral consequences of their action. This paper presents a formal definition of both conditions within the framework of causal models. I compare my approach to the existing approaches of Braham and van Hees (BvH) and of Halpern and Kleiman-Weiner (HK). I then generalize my definition into a _degree of responsibility_.

Delayed feedback is a critical problem in dynamic recommender systems. In practice, the feedback result often depends on the frequency of recommendation. Most existing online learning literature fails to consider optimization of the recommendation frequency, and regards the reward from each successfully recommended message to be equal. In this paper, we consider a novel cascading bandits setting, where individual messages from a selected list are sent to a user periodically. Whenever a user does not like a message, she may abandon the system with a probability positively correlated with the recommendation frequency. A learning agent needs to learn both the underlying message attraction probabilities and users' abandonment probabilities through the randomly delayed feedback. We first show a dynamic programming solution to finding the optimal message sequence in deterministic scenarios, in which the reward is allowed to vary with different messages. Then we propose a polynomial time UCB-based offline learning algorithm, and discuss its performance by characterizing its regret bound. For the online setting, we propose a learning algorithm which allows adaptive content for a given user. Numerical experiment on AmEx dataset confirms the effectiveness of our algorithms.

In an online social network, link recommendations are a way for users to discover relevant links to people they may know, thereby potentially increasing their engagement on the platform. However, the addition of links to a social network can also have an effect on the level of conflict in the network --- expressed in terms of polarization and disagreement. To date, however, we have very little understanding of how these two implications of link formation relate to each other: are the goals of high relevance and conflict reduction aligned, or are the links that users are most likely to accept fundamentally different from the ones with the greatest potential for reducing conflict? Here we provide the first analysis of this question, using the recently popular Friedkin-Johnsen model of opinion dynamics. We first present a surprising result on how link additions shift the level of opinion conflict, followed by explanation work that relates the amount of shift to structural features of the added links. We then characterize the gap in conflict reduction between the set of links achieving the largest reduction and the set of links achieving the highest relevance. The gap is measured on real-world data, based on instantiations of relevance defined by 13 link recommendation algorithms. We find that some, but not all, of the more accurate algorithms actually lead to better reduction of conflict. Our work suggests that social links recommended for increasing user engagement may not be as conflict-provoking as people might have thought.

Causality-based recommendation systems focus on the causal effects of user-item interactions resulting from item exposure (i.e., which items are recommended or exposed to the user), as opposed to conventional correlation-based recommendation. They are gaining popularity due to their multi-sided benefits to users, sellers and platforms alike. However, existing causality-based recommendation methods require additional input in the form of exposure data and/or propensity scores (i.e., the probability of exposure) for training. Such data, crucial for modeling causality in recommendation, are often not available in real-world situations due to technical or privacy constraints. In this paper, we bridge the gap by proposing a new framework, called Propensity Estimation for Causality-based Recommendation (PropCare). It can estimate the propensity and exposure from a more practical setup, where only interaction data are available *without* any ground truth on exposure or propensity in training and inference. We demonstrate that, by relating the pairwise characteristics between propensity and item popularity, PropCare enables competitive causality-based recommendation given only the conventional interaction data. We further present a theoretical analysis on the bias of the causal effect under our model estimation. Finally, we empirically evaluate PropCare through both quantitative and qualitative experiments.