ICML 2026 Papers

International Conference on Machine Learning

Decision breakdown

6,341papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Spotlight
    5368.5%
  • Poster
    5,80591.5%

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Stage-wise Distortion–Perception Traversal in Zero-shot Inverse Problems with Diffusion Models

Jiawei Zhang, Ziyuan Liu, Leon Yan, Zhenyu Xiao, Yuantao Gu

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The distortion–perception (D–P) tradeoff is a fundamental phenomenon of Bayesian inverse problems, which characterizes the inherent tension between distortion performance and perceptual quality. Enabling flexible traversal of the D-P tradeoff at inference time is crucial for practical applications. Despite the recent success of diffusion models in zero-shot inverse problem solving, efficient and principled strategies for D-P traversal in diffusion-based inverse algorithms remain inadequately characterized. In this paper, we propose a stage-wise framework for realizing D-P traversal using a single diffusion model in zero-shot inverse problems. Our proposed method, termed MAP-RPS, starts with an MAP estimation stage that approximates the MMSE solution and provides a low-distortion initialization, followed by a re-noised posterior sampling stage that progressively improves perceptual quality. We provide theoretical analyses for both stages, establishing the validity and effectiveness of the proposed design. Furthermore, we extend MAP-RPS to the latent space, yielding LMAP-RPS, which enjoys broader applicability by leveraging large-scale pre-trained latent diffusion backbones. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MAP-RPS and LMAP-RPS enable more effective D-P traversal on various tasks, while also exhibiting strong performance as efficient solvers for real-world inverse problems.

Poster
CoMem: Context Management with A Decoupled Long-Context Model

Yuwei Zhang, Chengyu Dong, Shuowei Jin, Changlong Yu, Hejie Cui, Hongye Jin, Xinyang Zhang, Hamed Bonab, Colin Lockard, Jianshu Chen, Zhenyu Shi, Jingbo Shang, Xian Li, Bing Yin

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Context management enables agentic models to solve long-horizon tasks through iterative summarization of previous interaction histories. However, this process typically incurs substantial decoding overhead for the extra summarization tokens, which significantly affect the end-to-end response latency at deployment. In this paper, we introduce CoMem, a novel framework that decouples memory management from the primary agent workflow, enabling these processes to execute in parallel. We propose a $k$-step-off asynchronous pipeline that overlaps the memory model's summarization with the agent's inference, effectively masking the latency of context processing. To ensure robustness under this asynchronous setting, we introduce a reward-driven training strategy that aligns the memory model to capture sufficient statistics for the agent's decision-making. Theoretical analysis confirms that CoMem offers a superior efficiency-effectiveness trade-off compared to coupled architectures. Our extensive experimental results on SWE-Bench-Verified show that CoMem provides 1.4x latency improvements upon vanilla long-context solutions while preserving most of the performance. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these latency gains scale favorably with increased system throughput, offering a modular path forward for the independent optimization of agent reasoning and memory compression.

Poster
On the Effect of Misspecifying the Embedding Dimension in Low-rank Network Models

Roddy Taing, Keith Levin

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As network data has become ubiquitous in the sciences, there has been growing interest in network models whose structure is driven by latent node-level variables in a (typically low-dimensional) latent geometric space. These "latent positions" are often estimated via embeddings, whereby the nodes of a network are mapped to points in Euclidean space so that "similar" nodes are mapped to nearby points. Under certain model assumptions, these embeddings are consistent estimates of the latent positions, but most such results require the embedding dimension to be chosen correctly. Methods for choosing the embedding dimension have been studied extensively, but little is known about the behavior of embeddings when the dimension is misspecified. In this work, we provide a theoretical description of the effects of dimension misspecification under the random dot product graph, a class of latent space network models that includes several widely-used network models, most notably the stochastic blockmodel, as special cases. We show that when the dimension is chosen too large, consistent estimation still holds, albeit at a slower rate than when the embedding dimension is chosen correctly. On the other hand, when the dimension is chosen too small, there is a fundamental estimation error lower bound that need not go to zero in the large-network limit. A range of synthetic data experiments support our theoretical results. Our main technical result, which may be of independent interest, is a generalization of earlier work in random matrix theory showing that all non-signal eigenvectors of a low-rank matrix subject to additive noise are delocalized.

Poster
AnyBand-Diff: A Unified Remote Sensing Image Generation and Band Repair Framework with Spectral Priors

Zhao zuopeng, Ying Liu, Xiaoyu Li, Su Luo, Lu Li, Wenwen Liu

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Existing diffusion models have made significant progress in generating realistic images. However, their direct adaptation to remote sensing imagery often disregards intrinsic physical laws. This oversight frequently leads to spectral distortion and radiometric inconsistency, severely limiting the scientific utility of generated data. To address this issue, this paper introduces AnyBand-Diff, a novel spectral-prior-guided diffusion framework tailored for robust spectral reconstruction. Specifically, we design a Masked Conditional Diffusion backbone integrated with a dual stochastic masking strategy, empowering the model to recover complete spectral information from arbitrary band subsets. Subsequently, to ensure radiometric fidelity, a Physics-Guided Sampling mechanism is proposed, leveraging gradients from a differentiable physical model to explicitly steer the denoising trajectory toward the manifold of physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, a Multi-Scale Physical Loss is formulated to enforce rigorous constraints across pixel, region, and global levels in a joint manner. Extensive experiments confirm the effectiveness of AnyBand-Diff in generating reliable imagery and achieving accurate spectral reconstruction, contributing to the advancement of physics-aware generative methods for Earth observation.

Poster
With Argus Eyes: Assessing Retrieval Gaps via Uncertainty Scoring to Detect and Remedy Retrieval Blind Spots

Zeinab Sadat Taghavi, Ali Modarressi, Hinrich Schuetze, Andreas Marfurt

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Reliable retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems depend fundamentally on the retriever’s ability to find relevant information. We show that neural retrievers used in RAG systems have blind spots, which we define as the failure to retrieve entities that are relevant to the query, but have low similarity to the query embedding. We investigate the training-induced biases that cause such blind-spot entities to be mapped to inaccessible parts of the embedding space, resulting in low retrievability. Using a large-scale dataset constructed from Wikidata relations and first paragraphs of Wikipedia, and our proposed Retrieval Probability Score (RPS), we show that blind spot risk in standard retrievers (e.g., Contriever, ReasonIR) can be predicted pre-index from entity embedding geometry, avoiding expensive retrieval evaluations. To address these blind spots, we introduce ARGUS, a pipeline that enables the retrievability of high-risk (low-RPS) entities through targeted document augmentation from a knowledge base (KB), first paragraphs of Wikipedia, in our case. Extensive experiments on BRIGHT, ImpliRet, and RAR-b show that ARGUS achieves consistent improvements across all evaluated retrievers (averaging +3.4 nDCG@5 and +4.5 nDCG@10 absolute points), with substantially larger gains in challenging subsets. These results establish that preemptively remedying blind spots is critical for building robust and trustworthy RAG systems (Code and data: github.com/ZeinabTaghavi/With_Argus_Eyes)

Poster
Uncovering Hidden Triggers: Backdoor Attribution in Language Models

Miao Yu, Zhenhong Zhou, Moayad Aloqaily, Kun Wang, Biwei Huang, Stephen Wang, Yueming Jin, Qingsong Wen

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Fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) are vulnerable to backdoor attacks through data poisoning, yet the internal mechanisms governing these attacks remain a black box. Previous research on interpretability for LLM safety tends to focus on alignment, jailbreak, and hallucination, but overlooks backdoor mechanisms, making it difficult to understand and fully eliminate the backdoor threat. In this paper, aiming to bridge this gap, we explore the interpretable mechanisms of LLM backdoors through Backdoor Attribution (BkdAttr), a tripartite causal analysis framework. We first introduce the Backdoor Probe that proves the existence of learnable backdoor features encoded within the representations. Building on this insight, we further develop Backdoor Attention Head Attribution (BAHA), efficiently pinpointing the specific attention heads responsible for processing these features. Our primary experiments reveals these heads are relatively sparse; ablating a minimal \textbf{$\sim$ 3%} of total heads is sufficient to reduce the Attack Success Rate (ASR) by \textbf{over 90%}. More importantly, we further employ these findings to construct the Backdoor Vector derived from these attributed heads as a master controller for the backdoor. Through only \textbf{1-point} intervention on \textbf{single} representation, the vector can either boost ASR up to \textbf{$\sim$ 100% $\uparrow$} on clean inputs, or completely neutralize backdoor, suppressing ASR down to \textbf{ $\sim$ 0%} on triggered inputs. In conclusion, our work pioneers the exploration of mechanistic interpretability in LLM backdoors, demonstrating a powerful method for backdoor control and revealing actionable insights for the community.

Poster
PLaID++: A Preference Aligned Language Model for Targeted Inorganic Materials Design

Andy Xu, Rohan Desai, Larry Wang, Ethan T. Ritz, Gabriel Hope

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Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a promising approach to improve correctness in LLMs, however, in many scientific problems, the objective is not necessarily to produce *the* correct answer, but instead to produce a diverse array of candidates which satisfy a set of constraints. We study this challenge in the context of materials generation. To this end, we introduce PLaID++, an LLM post-trained for stable and property-guided crystal generation. We find that applying naive preference optimization to a coordinate-based crystal representation leads to mode collapse. Hence, we introduce a compact, symmetry-informed Wyckoff text representation which improves computational efficiency and encourages generalization from physical priors. By encoding symmetry constraints directly into text and guiding model outputs towards desirable chemical space, PLaID++ generates structures that are thermodynamically stable, unique, and novel at a $>$50\% greater rate than prior methods. We further demonstrate that unified training across conditional and unconditional tasks are mutually beneficial in data-sparse regimes. Our work demonstrates the potential of adapting post-training techniques from natural language processing to materials design, paving the way for targeted and efficient discovery of novel materials.

Poster
GuidedBridge: Training-freely Improving Bridge Models with Prior Guidance

Zehua Chen, Yucheng Yang, Binjie Yuan, Kaiwen Zheng, Jun S. Liu, Jun Zhu

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Guidance methods, such as classifier-free guidance (CFG) and auto-guidance (AG), have advanced noise-to-data generation in diffusion models. Recently, bridge models have introduced a data-to-data generative process that can exploit an instructive clean prior. In this work, inspired by previous methods creating quality difference between denoising results as guidance, we propose a training-free bridge guidance method, termed Prior Guidance (PG). Specifically, we introduce a weak prior, which is unseen during bridge pre-training, hindering prior exploitation and thereby degrading denoising result. Then, we contrast it with the seen prior to highlight and enhance prior exploitation via a scaling factor. Moreover, we analyze the underlying mechanism of prior exploitation in the bridge process and design frequency-modulated prior guidance (FMPG), which tailors the guidance scale to low- and high-frequency bands coherent with bridge generative dynamics. To address prior exploitation in image in-painting, we develop a cascaded framework, CFG-FMPG, which first generates a noisy hidden representation via CFG and then exploits it as a generative prior with FMPG, fulfilling their complementary strengths without compromising inference efficiency. Experiments demonstrate that our PG methods consistently improve pre-trained bridge models across diverse image translation tasks.

Poster
AURA: Visually Interpretable Affective Understanding via Robust Archetypes

Guanyu Hu, Dimitrios Kollias, Xinyu Yang

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Interpretable methods such as vision--language models (VLMs) have advanced affect analysis by aligning images with textual descriptions. However, relying on text as an intermediate proxy faces critical limitations: linguistic templates are inherently discrete, making them fundamentally incompatible with continuous valence--arousal regression, while also acting as a bottleneck for fine-grained visual nuances. Cognitive psychology suggests that human affective perception is not mediated by linguistic translation, but is grounded in perceptual resemblance to internalized visual archetypes. Motivated by this, we propose AURA, an archetype-based framework that replaces brittle linguistic proxies with a self-organizing archetype manifold. By adaptively allocating representational density according to affective complexity, AURA enables accurate continuous regression and reshapes affective taxonomies by decomposing labels into interpretable, geometrically coherent visual primitives. This paradigm offers a transparent, visually grounded decision trail and achieves state-of-the-art results across discrete and continuous tasks.

Poster
Global Merger-Arbitrage Forecasting with Language Models

Hinal Jajal, Michał Mucha, Charles Sweat, Chris Pulman, Charlie Flanagan, Peter Anderson

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We present a language-model forecasting system for merger arbitrage, a specialized high-stakes financial setting in which the task is to predict the outcome of announced M\&A deals. Unlike prior work on judgmental forecasting with LLMs, which has focused on broad mixed-topic benchmarks and short context such as news snippets, we study a setting that requires long-context reasoning over hundreds of pages of technical documents. Our system combines expert-guided context engineering with finetuning on hindsight-guided reasoning traces derived from historical deals. Given an announced deal, it outputs a probability distribution over three mutually exclusive outcomes: closing at announced terms, a higher bid, or deal termination. On an out-of-sample set of more than 400 large deals spanning 42 countries, our finetuned system achieves the best performance of any method we evaluate, reducing class-balanced Brier score to 0.151. This is 24% below calibrated market-implied probabilities, 19% below XGBoost, and 25-42% below frontier language models. These results, together with ablation studies, show that LLM-based forecasting can succeed in specialized, long-context financial workflows, with hindsight-based supervision and expert-designed context playing a critical role.

Poster
Drop-in Circulant Structural Priors for Transformer Decoding of Cyclic Codes

Shuai Xiao, Weijun Fang, Qiaosheng Zhang

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While Transformer-based architectures have revolutionized neural decoding, existing models often treat codes as generic sequences, ignoring their inherent algebraic properties. In this paper, we take a step toward bridging these two domains by proposing a novel decoding approach that integrates the algebraic structure of cyclic codes into Transformer-based decoders. Leveraging the inherent cyclic properties, we introduce interpretable error correction patterns and inter-node relationship hypotheses that link the structural characteristics of the codes to the model parameters. Building on these insights, we design a plug-and-play, flexibly deployable decoding method tailored for cyclic codes. Experimental results show that our method achieves an average reduction in bit error rate (BER) by an order of magnitude, while also reducing the total number of parameters by approximately 97%. Additional comparative experiments validate our proposed conjectures and highlight a promising pathway for bridging classical coding theory and modern Transformer-based decoding architectures.

Poster
TAMPO: Task- and Model-Aware Automatic Prompt Optimization for Auto-Routing in LLM-based Systems

Yuejun Jiao, Jun Xia, Yanxin Yang, Yonghao Yang, Hao Shen, Mingsong Chen

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Automatic Prompt Optimization (APO) enables Large Language Models (LLMs) to adapt to specific tasks while minimizing manual engineering costs. However, since existing APO approaches either rely solely on multi-round iterative procedures or use model-specific generators tailored to optimizing prompts for a single model and objective, they are not readily applicable to auto-routing scenarios, which require operating over diverse LLMs and juggling multiple, often competing, trade-offs. To address this issue, we propose TAMPO, a novel task- and model-aware APO framework for auto-routing in LLM-based systems. Specifically, to capture performance variation across a broad range of tasks and models, we construct a comprehensive, heterogeneity-aware dataset to train an uncertainty-aware reward model. Serving as an offline proxy, this reward model can greatly mitigate reward hacking, allowing TAMPO to learn an optimal multi-objective conditional policy for robust prompt generation. Based on the user requirements encoded in our defined preference vector, this policy enables flexible control over prompt generation and supports a cost-effective deployment strategy. Extensive experiments across 86 tasks demonstrate that TAMPO effectively maintains performance stability across diverse tasks and models, providing a robust, controllable solution for auto-routing in various LLM-based systems.

Poster
From Correspondence to Actions: Human-Like Multi-Image Spatial Reasoning in Multi-modal Large Language Models

Masanari Oi, Koki Maeda, Ryuto Koike, Daisuke Oba, Nakamasa Inoue, Naoaki Okazaki

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While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made substantial progress in single-image spatial reasoning, multi-image spatial reasoning, which requires integration of information from multiple viewpoints, remains challenging. Cognitive studies suggest that humans address such tasks through two mechanisms: *cross-view correspondence*, which identifies regions across different views that correspond to the same physical locations, and *stepwise viewpoint transformation*, which composes relative viewpoint changes sequentially. However, existing studies incorporate these mechanisms only partially and often implicitly, without explicit supervision for both. We propose Human-Aware Training for Cross-view correspondence and viewpoint cHange (HATCH), a training framework with two complementary objectives: (1) Patch-Level Spatial Alignment, which encourages patch representations to align across views for spatially corresponding regions, and (2) Action-then-Answer Reasoning, which requires the model to generate explicit viewpoint transition actions before predicting the final answer. Experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that HATCH consistently outperforms baselines of comparable size by a clear margin and achieves competitive results against much larger models, while preserving single-image reasoning capabilities.

Poster
SpeedVFI: One-step Diffusion for Efficient Video Frame Interpolation

Ganggui Ding, Xiaogang Xu, Hao Chen, Chunhua Shen

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Generative video diffusion models have shown strong robustness to large motion and occlusions for video frame interpolation (VFI). However, their inference efficiency lags significantly behind learning-based methods due to the structural redundancy of pairwise inference and the procedural latency of multi-step iterative denoising. To address these limitations, we propose SpeedVFI, a task-specific one-step diffusion formulation that recasts generative VFI as unified sequence interpolation. SpeedVFI achieves dual efficiency improvements by interpolating the entire video sequence in a single forward pass to eliminate pairwise overhead, and by distilling the generation trajectory into a one-step denoising process to bypass iterative latency. To make this formulation effective for VFI, we introduce temporal RoPE alignment for temporally consistent conditioning and noise-centric partial attention to reduce computational overhead while preserving global context. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SpeedVFI accelerates diffusion-based VFI by orders of magnitude while maintaining competitive quantitative and visual quality.

Poster
Dynamics and Representation Structure of Local Approximations to Gradient-Based Learning in Linear Recurrent Neural Networks

Ezekiel Williams, Alexandre Payeur, Guillaume Lajoie

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Biological and neuromorphic recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are subject to spatial and temporal locality constraints on the information that can plausibly be used during learning. A common strategy to satisfy these constraints is to modify gradient descent by neglecting non-local terms to varying degrees, as in random feedback local online (RFLO) learning and truncated backpropagation through time (tBPTT). However, the learning dynamics of these algorithms, and how they compare with BPTT, remain poorly understood. We apply dynamical systems theory to data-aligned linear RNNs---whose dynamics can be separated into orthogonal modes---to compare stationary solutions, stability properties, and convergence rates, finding qualitatively distinct behaviour for RFLO versus BPTT and one-step tBPTT. We further observe that the solutions learned by RFLO are restricted to low-rank perturbations of initial parameters, a result which holds beyond the data-aligned setting. Our work provides analytical insight into how locality constraints shape learning dynamics, with implications for neuroscientific models of learning and alternative optimization approaches for RNNs.

Poster
ArcDAE: Asymmetric Rectified Contrastive Diffusion Autoencoder for Unified Representation Learning

Ge Gao, Di Xiong, Zeke Xie, Jian Yang, Shuo Chen

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The unification of generative details and discriminative semantics presents a structural paradox in *diffusion-based representation learning*. Early approaches decouple semantics from generation, inevitably compromising representational completeness (i.e., *information split*). While recent bridge-based methods achieve unification via a tightly coupled mapping, they suffer from *information overload*. This is because unconstrained reconstruction objectives incentivize the encoder to entangle high-frequency stochastic noise into the latent bottleneck. To solve this, we introduce *asymmetric rectified contrastive diffusion autoencoder* (ArcDAE), which rebuilds the diffusion bridge as a *dynamic sifter*. Through imposing a *timestep-aware rectification constraint* that orthogonalizes the semantic manifold from the stochastic noise space, ArcDAE compels the bottleneck to distill discriminative features while actively shedding high-frequency redundancy. Consequently, our approach eliminates the overload trap without reverting to decoupling. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of our FFHQ-trained ArcDAE, surpassing state-of-the-art methods by up to 6.4% in downstream semantics regression and 9.7% in reconstruction fidelity.

Poster
MIST: Moment-Aligned Invariant Stability Transform for Robust Flow Matching

Liang Peng, Deqing Li, Yujia Wu, Hao Meng, Kuan Cao, Yu Wu, Xiaoxiao Xu, Lin Qu

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Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) is a cornerstone of flow-matching models, significantly enhancing visual quality and prompt adherence. However, high guidance scales inherently violate the optimal transport dynamics, leading to visual artifacts and mode collapse. In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms of this failure through the lens of velocity moment decomposition. Our analysis reveals that the distributional shift induced by CFG decouples into two geometric components: a Linear Barycentric Drift that shifts the global distribution center, and a Quadratic Energetic Instability that injects surplus kinetic energy, disrupting the transport cost and triggering variance explosion. To mitigate these issues, we introduce MIST (Moment-aligned Invariant Stability Transform), a training-free method designed to confine the sampling trajectory to the learned data manifold. MIST comprises two hierarchical stages: (1) Invariant Alignment (IA), a global statistical rectifier that restores structural integrity by removing the linear drift and realigning the energy profile; and (2) Stability Thresholding (ST), a local dynamical regulator that enforces Lipschitz-like smoothness via temporal decay and spatial suppression. MIST enables robust, high-fidelity generation across a wide range of guidance scales while consistently improving performance at moderate scales. Extensive experiments on diverse text-to-image and text-to-video benchmarks demonstrate that MIST outperforms standard CFG and state-of-the-art corrections, establishing a new benchmark for robust guidance in flow-based generative models.

Poster
COGNOS: Universal Enhancement for Time Series Anomaly Detection via Constrained Gaussian-Noise Optimization and Smoothing

Wenlong Shang, Shihao Tian, Xutong Wan, Peng Chang

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Reconstruction-based methods are a dominant paradigm in time series anomaly detection (TSAD), however, their near-universal reliance on Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss results in statistically flawed reconstruction residuals. This fundamental weakness leads to noisy, unstable anomaly scores, hindering reliable detection. To address this, we propose Constrained Gaussian-Noise Optimization and Smoothing (COGNOS), a universal, model-agnostic enhancement framework that tackles this issue at its source. COGNOS introduces a novel Gaussian-White Noise Regularization strategy during training, which directly constrains the model's output residuals to conform to a Gaussian white noise distribution. This engineered statistical property creates the ideal precondition for our second contribution: Adaptive Residual Kalman Smoother that provably operates as a statistically robust estimator to denoise the raw anomaly scores. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that COGNOS consistently enhances the performance of state-of-the-art backbones significantly, validating the efficacy of coupling statistical regularization with adaptive filtering.

Poster
DRIFT-BENCH: Diagnosing CoopeRative Breakdowns in LLM Agents under Input Faults via Multi-Turn Interaction

Han Bao, Zheyuan Zhang, Pengcheng Jing, Zhengqing Yuan, Kaiwen Shi, Yanfang Ye

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As Large Language Models transition to autonomous agents, user inputs frequently violate cooperative assumptions (e.g., implicit intent, missing parameters, false presuppositions, or ambiguous expressions), creating execution risks that text-only evaluations do not capture. Existing benchmarks typically assume well-specified instructions or restrict evaluation to text-only, single-turn clarification, and thus do not measure multi-turn disambiguation under grounded execution risk. We introduce DRIFT-BENCH, the first diagnostic benchmark that evaluates agentic pragmatics under input faults through multi-turn clarification across state-oriented and service-oriented execution environments. Grounded in classical theories of communication, DRIFT-BENCH provides a unified taxonomy of cooperative breakdowns and employs a persona-driven user simulator with the Rise evaluation protocol. Experiments show substantial performance drops under these faults, with clarification effectiveness varying across user personas and fault types. DRIFT-BENCH connects clarification studies with agent benchmarking, providing a framework to diagnose failures arising from faulty user inputs.

Poster
Sparks of Cooperative Reasoning: LLMs as Strategic Hanabi Agents

Mahesh Ramesh, Kaousheik Jayakumar, Aswinkumar Ramkumar, Pavan Thodima, Aniket Rege, Emmanouil-Vasileios Vlatakis-Gkaragkounis, Emmanouil-Vasileios Vlatakis-Gkaragkounis

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Cooperative reasoning under incomplete information remains complex for both humans and multi-agent AI, requiring agents to transcend individual logic in favor of recursive Theory-of-Mind (ToM) and strategic coordination. To investigate these challenges, we conduct a large-scale evaluation of 17 state-of-the-art LLMs (4B–600B+) on Hanabi card game across 2–5 players. To examine their limitations, we analyze the impact of context engineering and scaffold robustness, ranging from minimal prompts (Watson setting) to Bayesian-motivated scaffolding (Sherlock setting) and multi-turn working memory (Mycroft setting). Our findings reveal that: (1) top-performing models can autonomously track game states via internal working memory, although not reliably, and (2) cross-play performance scales smoothly with model capability. However, even the best models (scoring ≈ 15/25) trail specialist human experts (> 20/25). We introduce and release two novel datasets: HanabiLogs (1,520 annotated trajectories) and HanabiRewards (560 games with dense move-level utilities). By fine-tuning a 4B open-weight model (Qwen3-Instruct) on our datasets, we achieve performance gains of up to 156%, bringing performance to within 3 points of a strong proprietary reasoning model (o4-mini) and surpassing the best non-reasoning model (GPT-4.1) by 52%. Crucially, our HanabiRewards RL-finetuned model further generalizes beyond Hanabi, improving performance on a cooperative group-guessing benchmark by 11 percentage points, temporal reasoning on EventQA by 6.4 points, instruction-following on IFBench by 1.7 Pass@10, and matching AIME 2025 mathematical reasoning Pass@10. Code and datasets are available at https://app.primeintellect.ai/dashboard/environments/mahesh-ramesh/hanabi.

Poster