ICML 2025 Papers

We revisit the Bayesian Black–Litterman (BL) portfolio model and remove its reliance on subjective investor views. Classical BL requires an investor “view”: a forecast vector $q$ and its uncertainty matrix $\Omega$ that describe how much a chosen portfolio should outperform the market. Our key idea is to treat $(q,\Omega)$ as latent variables and learn them from market data within a single Bayesian network. Consequently, the resulting posterior estimation admits closed-form expression, enabling fast inference and stable portfolio weights. Building on these, we propose two mechanisms to capture how features interact with returns: shared-latent parametrization and feature-influenced views; both recover classical BL and Markowitz portfolios as special cases. Empirically, on 30-year Dow-Jones and 20-year sector-ETF data, we improve Sharpe ratios by 50\% and cut turnover by 55\% relative to Markowitz and the index baselines. This work turns BL into a fully data-driven, view-free, and coherent Bayesian framework for portfolio optimization.

We introduce CUPS, a novel method for learning sequence-to-sequence 3D human shapes and poses from RGB videos with uncertainty quantification. To improve on top of prior work, we develop a method to {generate and score multiple hypotheses during training}, effectively integrating uncertainty quantification into the learning process. This process results in a deep uncertainty function that is trained end-to-end with the 3D pose estimator. Post-training, the learned deep uncertainty model is used as the conformity score, which can be used to calibrate a conformal predictor in order to {assess} the quality of the output prediction. Since the data in human pose-shape learning is not fully exchangeable, we also {present} two practical bounds for the coverage gap in conformal prediction, developing theoretical backing for the uncertainty bound of our model. Our results indicate that by taking advantage of deep uncertainty with conformal prediction, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across various metrics and datasets while inheriting the probabilistic guarantees of conformal prediction. Interactive 3D visualization, code, and data will be available at https://sites.google.com/view/champpp.

The K-means algorithm is one of the most widely studied clustering algorithms in machine learning. While extensive research has focused on its ability to achieve a globally optimal solution, there still lacks a rigorous analysis of its local optimality guarantees. In this paper, we first present conditions under which the K-means algorithm converges to a locally optimal solution. Based on this, we propose simple modifications to the K-means algorithm which ensure local optimality in both the continuous and discrete sense, with the same computational complexity as the original K-means algorithm. As the dissimilarity measure, we consider a general Bregman divergence, which is an extension of the squared Euclidean distance often used in the K-means algorithm. Numerical experiments confirm that the K-means algorithm does not always find a locally optimal solution in practice, while our proposed methods provide improved locally optimal solutions with reduced clustering loss. Our code is available at https://github.com/lmingyi/LO-K-means.

Distributed learning methods have gained substantial momentum in recent years, with communication overhead often emerging as a critical bottleneck. Gradient compression techniques alleviate communication costs but involve an inherent trade-off between the empirical efficiency of biased compressors and the theoretical guarantees of unbiased compressors. In this work, we introduce a novel Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) compression scheme that leverages biased compressors to construct statistically unbiased estimates. This approach effectively bridges the gap between biased and unbiased methods, combining the strengths of both. To showcase the versatility of our method, we apply it to popular compressors, like Top-$k$ and bit-wise compressors, resulting in enhanced variants. Furthermore, we derive an adaptive version of our approach to further improve its performance. We validate our method empirically on distributed deep learning tasks.

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization (WDRO) is a principled framework for robust estimation under distributional uncertainty. However, its standard formulation can be overly conservative, particularly in small-sample regimes. We propose a novel knowledge-guided WDRO (KG-WDRO) framework for transfer learning, which adaptively incorporates multiple sources of external knowledge to improve generalization accuracy. Our method constructs smaller Wasserstein ambiguity sets by controlling the transportation along directions informed by the source knowledge. This strategy can alleviate perturbations on the predictive projection of the covariates and protect against information loss. Theoretically, we establish the equivalence between our WDRO formulation and the knowledge-guided shrinkage estimation based on collinear similarity, ensuring tractability and geometrizing the feasible set. This also reveals a novel and general interpretation for recent shrinkage-based transfer learning approaches from the perspective of distributional robustness. In addition, our framework can adjust for scaling differences in the regression models between the source and target and accommodates general types of regularization such as lasso and ridge. Extensive simulations demonstrate the superior performance and adaptivity of KG-WDRO in enhancing small-sample transfer learning.

Recent advancements in video generation have enabled models to synthesize high-quality, minute-long videos. However, generating even longer videos with temporal coherence remains a major challenge and existing length extrapolation methods lead to temporal repetition or motion deceleration. In this work, we systematically analyze the role of frequency components in positional embeddings and identify an intrinsic frequency that primarily governs extrapolation behavior. Based on this insight, we propose RIFLEx, a minimal yet effective approach that reduces the intrinsic frequency to suppress repetition while preserving motion consistency, without requiring any additional modifications. RIFLEx offers a true free lunch—achieving high-quality $2\times$ extrapolation on state-of-the-art video diffusion transformers in a completely training-free manner. Moreover, it enhances quality and enables $3\times$ extrapolation by minimal fine-tuning without long videos.

Many existing evaluation benchmarks for Large Language Models (LLMs) quickly become outdated due to the emergence of new models and training data. These benchmarks also fall short in assessing how LLM performance changes over time, as they consist of a static set of questions without a temporal dimension. To address these limitations, we propose using future event prediction as a continuous evaluation method to assess LLMs' temporal generalization and forecasting abilities. Our benchmark, Daily Oracle, automatically generates question-answer (QA) pairs from daily news, challenging LLMs to predict "future" event outcomes. Our findings reveal that as pre-training data becomes outdated, LLM performance degrades over time. While Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has the potential to enhance prediction accuracy, the performance degradation pattern persists, highlighting the need for continuous model updates. Code and data are available at https://agenticlearning.ai/daily-oracle.

Accurately modeling and predicting complex dynamical systems, particularly those involving force exchange and dissipation, is crucial for applications ranging from fluid dynamics to robotics, but presents significant challenges due to the intricate interplay of geometric constraints and energy transfer. This paper introduces Geometric Contact Flows (GFC), a novel framework leveraging Riemannian and Contact geometry as inductive biases to learn such systems. GCF constructs a latent contact Hamiltonian model encoding desirable properties like stability or energy conservation. An ensemble of contactomorphisms then adapts this model to the target dynamics while preserving these properties. This ensemble allows for uncertainty-aware geodesics that attract the system’s behavior toward the data support, enabling robust generalization and adaptation to unseen scenarios. Experiments on learning dynamics for physical systems and for controlling robots on interaction tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose \textbf{TimeDART}, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way.We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach.Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART}.

With rapid advancements in machine learning, first-order algorithms have emerged as the backbone of modern optimization techniques, owing to their computational efficiency and low memory requirements. Recently, the connection between accelerated gradient methods and damped heavy-ball motion, particularly within the framework of Hamiltonian dynamics, has inspired the development of innovative quantum algorithms for continuous optimization. One such algorithm, Quantum Hamiltonian Descent (QHD), leverages quantum tunneling to escape saddle points and local minima, facilitating the discovery of global solutions in complex optimization landscapes. However, QHD faces several challenges, including slower convergence rates compared to classical gradient methods and limited robustness in highly non-convex problems due to the non-local nature of quantum states. Furthermore, the original QHD formulation primarily relies on function value information, which limits its effectiveness. Inspired by insights from high-resolution differential equations that have elucidated the acceleration mechanisms in classical methods, we propose an enhancement to QHD by incorporating gradient information, leading to what we call gradient-based QHD. This gradient-based QHD achieves faster convergence and significantly increases the likelihood of identifying global solutions. Numerical simulations on challenging problem instances demonstrate that this gradient-based QHD outperforms existing quantum and classical methods by at least an order of magnitude.

Many video-to-audio (VTA) methods have been proposed for dubbing silent AI-generated videos. An efficient quality assessment method for AI-generated audio-visual content (AGAV) is crucial for ensuring audio-visual quality. Existing audio-visual quality assessment methods struggle with unique distortions in AGAVs, such as unrealistic and inconsistent elements. To address this, we introduce **AGAVQA-3k**, the first large-scale AGAV quality assessment dataset, comprising $3,382$ AGAVs from $16$ VTA methods. AGAVQA-3k includes two subsets: AGAVQA-MOS, which provides multi-dimensional scores for audio quality, content consistency, and overall quality, and AGAVQA-Pair, designed for optimal AGAV pair selection. We further propose **AGAV-Rater**, a LMM-based model that can score AGAVs, as well as audio and music generated from text, across multiple dimensions, and selects the best AGAV generated by VTA methods to present to the user. AGAV-Rater achieves state-of-the-art performance on AGAVQA-3k, Text-to-Audio, and Text-to-Music datasets. Subjective tests also confirm that AGAV-Rater enhances VTA performance and user experience. The dataset and code is available at https://github.com/charlotte9524/AGAV-Rater.

Solving the Nash equilibrium in normal-form games with large-scale strategy spaces presents significant challenges. Open-ended learning frameworks, such as PSRO and its variants, have emerged as effective solutions. However, these methods often lack an efficient metric for evaluating strategy improvement, which limits their effectiveness in approximating equilibria. In this paper, we introduce a novel evaluative metric called Advantage, which possesses desirable properties inherently connected to the Nash equilibrium, ensuring that each strategy update approaches equilibrium. Building upon this, we propose the Advantage Policy Space Response Oracle (A-PSRO), an innovative unified open-ended learning framework applicable to both zero-sum and general-sum games. A-PSRO leverages the Advantage as a refined evaluation metric, leading to a consistent learning objective for agents in normal-form games. Experiments showcase that A-PSRO significantly reduces exploitability in zero-sum games and improves rewards in general-sum games, outperforming existing algorithms and validating its practical effectiveness.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are tractable representations of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. Recent advancements have improved the scalability of PCs either by leveraging their sparse properties or through the use of tensorized operations for better hardware utilization. However, no existing method fully exploits both aspects simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a novel sparse and structured parameterization for the sum blocks in PCs. By replacing dense matrices with sparse Monarch matrices, we significantly reduce the memory and computation costs, enabling unprecedented scaling of PCs. From a theory perspective, our construction arises naturally from circuit multiplication; from a practical perspective, compared to previous efforts on scaling up tractable probabilistic models, our approach not only achieves state-of-the-art generative modeling performance on challenging benchmarks like Text8, LM1B and ImageNet, but also demonstrates superior scaling behavior, achieving the same performance with substantially less compute as measured by the number of floating-point operations (FLOPs) during training.

Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for _in-context fine-tuning_ of a time-series foundation model. In particular, we design a pretrained foundation model that can be prompted (at inference time) with multiple time-series examples, in order to forecast a target time-series into the future. Our foundation model is specifically trained to utilize examples from multiple related time-series in its context window (in addition to the history of the target time-series) to help it adapt to the specific distribution of the target domain at inference time. We show that such a foundation model that uses in-context examples at inference time can obtain much better performance on popular forecasting benchmarks compared to supervised deep learning methods, statistical models, and other time series foundation models. Interestingly, our in-context fine-tuning approach even matches the performance of a foundation model that is explicitly fine-tuned on the target domain.

Retrieval-augmented classification and generation models benefit from *early-stage fusion* of high-quality text-based metadata, often called memory, but face high latency and noise sensitivity. In extreme classification (XC), where low latency is crucial, existing methods use *late-stage fusion* for efficiency and robustness. To enhance accuracy while maintaining low latency, we propose MOGIC, a novel approach to metadata-infused oracle guidance for XC. We train an early-fusion oracle classifier with access to both query-side and label-side ground-truth metadata in textual form and subsequently use it to guide existing memory-based XC disciple models via regularization. The MOGIC algorithm improves precision@1 and propensity-scored precision@1 of XC disciple models by 1-2% on six standard datasets, at no additional inference-time cost. We show that MOGIC can be used in a plug-and-play manner to enhance memory-free XC models such as NGAME or DEXA. Lastly, we demonstrate the robustness of the MOGIC algorithm to missing and noisy metadata. The code is publicly available at [https://github.com/suchith720/mogic](https://github.com/suchith720/mogic).

Current fake image detectors trained on large synthetic image datasets perform satisfactorily on limited studied generative models. However, these detectors suffer a notable performance decline over unseen models. Besides, collecting adequate training data from online generative models is often expensive or infeasible. To overcome these issues, we propose Few-Shot Detector (FSD), a novel AI-generated image detector which learns a specialized metric space for effectively distinguishing unseen fake images using very few samples. Experiments show that FSD achieves state-of-the-art performance by $+11.6\%$ average accuracy on the GenImage dataset with only $10$ additional samples. More importantly, our method is better capable of capturing the intra-category commonality in unseen images without further training. Our code is available at https://github.com/teheperinko541/Few-Shot-AIGI-Detector.

We present MFRNet, a novel network for multi-modal object re-identification that integrates multi-modal data features to effectively retrieve specific objects across different modalities. Current methods suffer from two principal limitations: (1) insufficient interaction between pixel-level semantic features across modalities, and (2) difficulty in balancing modality-shared and modality-specific features within a unified architecture. To address these challenges, our network introduces two core components. First, the Feature Fusion Module (FFM) enables fine-grained pixel-level feature generation and flexible cross-modal interaction. Second, the Feature Representation Module (FRM) efficiently extracts and combines modality-specific and modality-shared features, achieving strong discriminative ability with minimal parameter overhead. Extensive experiments on three challenging public datasets (RGBNT201, RGBNT100, and MSVR310) demonstrate the superiority of our approach in terms of both accuracy and efficiency, with 8.4% mAP and 6.9% accuracy improved in RGBNT201 with negligible additional parameters.

We consider the problem of clustering grouped data for which the observations may include group-specific variables in addition to the variables that are shared across groups. This type of data is quite common; for example, in cancer genomic studies, molecular information is available for all cancers whereas cancer-specific clinical information may only be available for certain cancers. Existing grouped clustering methods only consider the shared variables but ignore valuable information from the group-specific variables. To allow for these group-specific variables to aid in the clustering, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach, termed global-local (GLocal) Dirichlet process, that models the "global-local" structure of the observations across groups. We characterize the GLocal Dirichlet process using the stick-breaking representation and the representation as a limit of a finite mixture model. We theoretically quantify the approximation errors of the truncated prior, the corresponding finite mixture model, and the associated posterior distribution. We develop a fast variational Bayes algorithm for scalable posterior inference, which we illustrate with extensive simulations and a TCGA pan-gastrointestinal cancer dataset.

Formal logic enables computers to reason in natural language by representing sentences in symbolic forms and applying rules to derive conclusions. However, in what our study characterizes as "rulebreaker" scenarios, this method can lead to conclusions that are typically not inferred or accepted by humans given their common sense and factual knowledge. Inspired by works in cognitive science, we create RULEBREAKERS, the first dataset for rigorously evaluating the ability of large language models (LLMs) to recognize and respond to rulebreakers (versus non-rulebreakers) in a knowledge-informed and human-like manner. Evaluating seven LLMs, we find that most models achieve mediocre accuracy on RULEBREAKERS and exhibit some tendency to over-rigidly apply logical rules, unlike what is expected from typical human reasoners. Further analysis suggests that this apparent failure is potentially associated with the models' poor utilization of their world knowledge and their attention distribution patterns. Whilst revealing a limitation of current LLMs, our study also provides a timely counterbalance to a growing body of recent works that propose methods relying on formal logic to improve LLMs' general reasoning capabilities, highlighting their risk of further increasing divergence between LLMs and human-like reasoning.