Variational Inference

Semi-implicit distributions have shown great promise in variational inference and generative modeling. Hierarchical semi-implicit models, which stack multiple semi-implicit layers, enhance the expressiveness of semi-implicit distributions and can be used to accelerate diffusion models given pretrained score networks. However, their sequential training often suffers from slow convergence. In this paper, we introduce CoSIM, a continuous semi-implicit model that extends hierarchical semi-implicit models into a continuous framework. By incorporating a continuous transition kernel, CoSIM enables efficient, simulation-free training. Furthermore, we show that CoSIM achieves consistency with a carefully designed transition kernel, offering a novel approach for multistep distillation of generative models at the distributional level. Extensive experiments on image generation demonstrate that CoSIM performs on par or better than existing diffusion model acceleration methods, achieving superior performance on FD-DINOv2.

We consider the problem of clustering grouped data for which the observations may include group-specific variables in addition to the variables that are shared across groups. This type of data is quite common; for example, in cancer genomic studies, molecular information is available for all cancers whereas cancer-specific clinical information may only be available for certain cancers. Existing grouped clustering methods only consider the shared variables but ignore valuable information from the group-specific variables. To allow for these group-specific variables to aid in the clustering, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach, termed global-local (GLocal) Dirichlet process, that models the "global-local" structure of the observations across groups. We characterize the GLocal Dirichlet process using the stick-breaking representation and the representation as a limit of a finite mixture model. We theoretically quantify the approximation errors of the truncated prior, the corresponding finite mixture model, and the associated posterior distribution. We develop a fast variational Bayes algorithm for scalable posterior inference, which we illustrate with extensive simulations and a TCGA pan-gastrointestinal cancer dataset.

Bayesian phylogenetics is vital for understanding evolutionary dynamics, and requires accurate and efficient approximation of posterior distributions over trees. In this work, we develop a variational Bayesian approach for ultrametric phylogenetic trees. We present a novel variational family based on coalescent times of a single-linkage clustering and derive a closed-form density for the resulting distribution over trees. Unlike existing methods for ultrametric trees, our method performs inference over all of tree space, it does not require any Markov chain Monte Carlo subroutines, and our variational family is differentiable. Through experiments on benchmark genomic datasets and an application to the viral RNA of SARS-CoV-2, we demonstrate that our method achieves competitive accuracy while requiring significantly fewer gradient evaluations than existing state-of-the-art techniques.

Score matching is a vital tool for learning the distribution of data with applications across many areas including diffusion processes, energy based modelling, and graphical model estimation. Despite all these applications, little work explores its use when data is incomplete. We address this by adapting score matching (and its major extensions) to work with missing data in a flexible setting where data can be partially missing over any subset of the coordinates. We provide two separate score matching variations for general use, an importance weighting (IW) approach, and a variational approach. We provide finite sample bounds for our IW approach in finite domain settings and show it to have especially strong performance in small sample lower dimensional cases. Complementing this, we show our variational approach to be strongest in more complex high-dimensional settings which we demonstrate on graphical model estimation tasks on both real and simulated data.

Multimodal learning with variational autoencoders (VAEs) requires estimating joint distributions to evaluate the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Current methods, the product and mixture of experts, aggregate single-modality distributions assuming independence for simplicity, which is an overoptimistic assumption. This research introduces a novel methodology for aggregating single-modality distributions by exploiting the principle of *consensus of dependent experts* (CoDE), which circumvents the aforementioned assumption. Utilizing the CoDE method, we propose a novel ELBO that approximates the joint likelihood of the multimodal data by learning the contribution of each subset of modalities. The resulting CoDE-VAE model demonstrates better performance in terms of balancing the trade-off between generative coherence and generative quality, as well as generating more precise log-likelihood estimations. CoDE-VAE further minimizes the generative quality gap as the number of modalities increases. In certain cases, it reaches a generative quality similar to that of unimodal VAEs, which is a desirable property that is lacking in most current methods. Finally, the classification accuracy achieved by CoDE-VAE is comparable to that of state-of-the-art multimodal VAE models.

Recent contributions of semantic information theory reveal the set-element relationship between semantic and syntactic information, represented as synonymous relationships. In this paper, we propose a synonymous variational inference (SVI) method based on this synonymity viewpoint to re-analyze the perceptual image compression problem. It takes perceptual similarity as a typical synonymous criterion to build an ideal synonymous set (Synset), and approximate the posterior of its latent synonymous representation with a parametric density by minimizing a partial semantic KL divergence. This analysis theoretically proves that the optimization direction of perception image compression follows a triple tradeoff that can cover the existing rate-distortion-perception schemes. Additionally, we introduce synonymous image compression (SIC), a new image compression scheme that corresponds to the analytical process of SVI, and implement a progressive SIC codec to fully leverage the model's capabilities. Experimental results demonstrate comparable rate-distortion-perception performance using a single progressive SIC codec, thus verifying the effectiveness of our proposed analysis method.

A key challenge in personalized healthcare is identifying optimal intervention sequences to guide temporal systems toward target outcomes, a novel problem we formalize as counterfactual target achievement. In addressing this problem, directly adopting counterfactual estimation methods face compounding errors due to the unobservability of counterfactuals. To overcome this, we propose Variational Counterfactual Intervention Planning (VCIP), which reformulates the problem by modeling the conditional likelihood of achieving target outcomes, implemented through variational inference. By leveraging the g-formula to bridge the gap between interventional and observational log-likelihoods, VCIP enables reliable training from observational data. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that VCIP significantly outperforms existing methods in target achievement accuracy.

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of variational inference in latent variable models for survival analysis, emphasizing the distinctive challenges associated with applying variational methods to survival data. We identify a critical weakness in the existing methodology, demonstrating how a poorly designed variational distribution may hinder the objective of survival analysis tasks—modeling time-to-event distributions. We prove that the optimal variational distribution, which perfectly bounds the log-likelihood, may depend on the censoring mechanism. To address this issue, we propose censor-dependent variational inference (CDVI), tailored for latent variable models in survival analysis. More practically, we introduce CD-CVAE, a V-structure Variational Autoencoder (VAE) designed for the scalable implementation of CDVI. Further discussion extends some existing theories and training techniques to survival analysis. Extensive experiments validate our analysis and demonstrate significant improvements in the estimation of individual survival distributions.

Variational data assimilation estimates the dynamical system states by minimizing a cost function that fits the numerical models with the observational data. Although four-dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) is widely used, it faces high computational costs in complex nonlinear systems and depends on imperfect state-observation mappings. Deep learning (DL) offers more expressive approximators, while integrating DL models into 4D-Var is challenging due to their nonlinearities and lack of theoretical guarantees in assimilation results. In this paper, we propose \textit{Tensor-Var}, a novel framework that integrates kernel conditional mean embedding (CME) with 4D-Var to linearize nonlinear dynamics, achieving convex optimization in a learned feature space. Moreover, our method provides a new perspective for solving 4D-Var in a linear way, offering theoretical guarantees of consistent assimilation results between the original and feature spaces. To handle large-scale problems, we propose a method to learn deep features (DFs) using neural networks within the Tensor-Var framework. Experiments on chaotic systems and global weather prediction with real-time observations show that Tensor-Var outperforms conventional and DL hybrid 4D-Var baselines in accuracy while achieving a 10- to 20-fold speed improvement.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), a class of latent-variable generative models, have seen extensive use in high-fidelity synthesis tasks, yet their loss landscape remains poorly understood. Prior theoretical works on VAE loss analysis have focused on their latent-space representational capabilities, both in the optimal and limiting cases. Although these insights have guided better VAE designs, they also often restrict VAEs to problem settings where classical algorithms, such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), can trivially guarantee globally optimal solutions. In this work, we push the boundaries of our understanding of VAEs beyond these traditional regimes to tackle NP-hard sparse inverse problems, for which no classical algorithms exist. Specifically, we examine the nontrivial Sparse Linear Regression (SLR) problem of recovering optimal sparse inputs in the presence of an ill-conditioned design matrix having correlated features. We provably show that, under a linear encoder-decoder architecture incorporating the product of the SLR design matrix with a trainable, sparsity-promoting diagonal matrix, any minimum of VAE loss is guaranteed to be an optimal solution. This property is especially useful for identifying (a) a preconditioning factor that reduces the eigenvalue spread, and (b) the corresponding optimal sparse representation. Lastly, our empirical analysis with different types of design matrices validates these findings and even demonstrates a higher recovery rate at low sparsity where traditional algorithms fail. Overall, this work highlights the flexible nature of the VAE loss, which can be adapted to efficiently solve computationally hard problems under specific constraints.

Normalizing flows are a flexible class of probability distributions, expressed as transformations of a simple base distribution. A limitation of standard normalizing flows is representing distributions with heavy tails, which arise in applications to both density estimation and variational inference. A popular current solution to this problem is to use a heavy tailed base distribution. We argue this can lead to poor performance due to the difficulty of optimising neural networks, such as normalizing flows, under heavy tailed input. We propose an alternative, "tail transform flow'' (TTF), which uses a Gaussian base distribution and a final transformation layer which can produce heavy tails. Experimental results show this approach outperforms current methods, especially when the target distribution has large dimension or tail weight.

We study Variational Rectified Flow Matching, a framework that enhances classic rectified flow matching by modeling multi-modal velocity vector-fields. At inference time, classic rectified flow matching 'moves' samples from a source distribution to the target distribution by solving an ordinary differential equation via integration along a velocity vector-field. At training time, the velocity vector-field is learnt by linearly interpolating between coupled samples one drawn from the source and one drawn from the target distribution randomly. This leads to ''ground-truth'' velocity vector-fields that point in different directions at the same location, i.e., the velocity vector-fields are multi-modal/ambiguous. However, since training uses a standard mean-squared-error loss, the learnt velocity vector-field averages ''ground-truth'' directions and isn't multi-modal. In contrast, variational rectified flow matching learns and samples from multi-modal flow directions. We show on synthetic data, MNIST, CIFAR-10, and ImageNet that variational rectified flow matching leads to compelling results.

Sparse variational Gaussian processes (GPs) construct tractable posterior approximations to GP models. At the core of these methods is the assumption that the true posterior distribution over training function values ${\bf f}$ and inducing variables ${\bf u}$ is approximated by a variational distribution that incorporates the conditional GP prior $p({\bf f} | {\bf u})$ in its factorization. While this assumption is considered as fundamental, we show that for model training we can relax it through the use of a more general variational distribution $q({\bf f} | {\bf u} )$ that depends on $N$ extra parameters, where $N$ is the number of training examples. In GP regression, we can analytically optimize the evidence lower bound over the extra parameters and express a tractable collapsed bound that is tighter than the previous bound. The new bound is also amenable to stochastic optimization and its implementation requires minor modifications to existing sparse GP code. Further, we also describe extensions to non-Gaussian likelihoods. On several datasets we demonstrate that our method can reduce bias when learning the hyperparameters and can lead to better predictive performance.

We introduce FedGVI, a probabilistic Federated Learning (FL) framework that is robust to both prior and likelihood misspecification. FedGVI addresses limitations in both frequentist and Bayesian FL by providing unbiased predictions under model misspecification, with calibrated uncertainty quantification. Our approach generalises previous FL approaches, specifically Partitioned Variational Inference (Ashman et al., 2022), by allowing robust and conjugate updates, decreasing computational complexity at the clients. We offer theoretical analysis in terms of fixed-point convergence, optimality of the cavity distribution, and provable robustness to likelihood misspecification. Further, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of FedGVI in terms of improved robustness and predictive performance on multiple synthetic and real world classification data sets.

Data assimilation for nonlinear state space models (SSMs) is inherently challenging due to non-Gaussian posteriors. We propose Deep Bayesian Filtering (DBF), a novel approach to data assimilation in nonlinear SSMs. DBF introduces latent variables $h_t$ in addition to physical variables $z_t$, ensuring Gaussian posteriors by (i) constraining state transitions in the latent space to be linear and (ii) learning a Gaussian inverse observation operator $r(h_t|o_t)$. This structured posterior design enables analytical recursive computation, avoiding the accumulation of Monte Carlo sampling errors over time steps. DBF optimizes these operators and other latent SSM parameters by maximizing the evidence lower bound. Experiments demonstrate that DBF outperforms existing methods in scenarios with highly non-Gaussian posteriors.

*Variational inequalities (VIs)* encompass many fundamental problems in diverse areas ranging from engineering to economics and machine learning. However, their considerable expressivity comes at the cost of computational intractability. In this paper, we introduce and analyze a natural relaxation—which we refer to as *expected variational inequalities (EVIs)*—where the goal is to find a distribution that satisfies the VI constraint in expectation. By adapting recent techniques from game theory, we show that, unlike VIs, EVIs can be solved in polynomial time under general (nonmonotone) operators. EVIs capture the seminal notion of correlated equilibria, but enjoy a greater reach beyond games. We also employ our framework to capture and generalize several existing disparate results, including from settings such as smooth games, and games with coupled constraints or nonconcave utilities.

We introduce a novel one-parameter variational objective that lower bounds the data evidence and enables the estimation of approximate fractional posteriors. We extend this framework to hierarchical construction and Bayes posteriors, offering a versatile tool for probabilistic modelling. We demonstrate two cases where gradients can be obtained analytically and a simulation study on mixture models showing that our fractional posteriors can be used to achieve better calibration compared to posteriors from the conventional variational bound. When applied to variational autoencoders (VAEs), our approach attains higher evidence bounds and enables learning of high-performing approximate Bayes posteriors jointly with fractional posteriors. We show that VAEs trained with fractional posteriors produce decoders that are better aligned for generation from the prior.

Modern deep neural networks exhibit heterogeneity across numerous layers of various types such as residuals, multi-head attention, etc., due to varying structures (dimensions, activation functions, etc.), distinct representation characteristics, which impact predictions. We develop a general layer-wise quantization framework with tight variance and code-length bounds, adapting to the heterogeneities over the course of training. We then apply a new layer-wise quantization technique within distributed variational inequalities (VIs), proposing a novel Quantized Optimistic Dual Averaging (QODA) algorithm with adaptive learning rates, which achieves competitive convergence rates for monotone VIs. We empirically show that QODA achieves up to a $150$% speedup over the baselines in end-to-end training time for training Wasserstein GAN on $12+$ GPUs.

We present a theory for the construction of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection features for neural networks. We introduce random features for OOD through a novel information-theoretic loss functional consisting of two terms, the first based on the KL divergence separates resulting in-distribution (ID) and OOD feature distributions and the second term is the Information Bottleneck, which favors compressed features that retain the OOD information. We formulate a variational procedure to optimize the loss and obtain OOD features. Based on assumptions on OOD distributions, one can recover properties of existing OOD features, i.e., shaping functions. Furthermore, we show that our theory can predict a new shaping function that out-performs existing ones on OOD benchmarks. Our theory provides a general framework for constructing a variety of new features with clear explainability.

Recent years have witnessed growing interest in semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) methods due to their ability to rapidly generate samples from complex distributions. However, since the likelihood of these samples is non-trivial to estimate in high dimensions, current research focuses on finding effective SIVI training routines. Although unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI) has largely been dismissed as imprecise and computationally prohibitive because of its inner MCMC loop, we revisit this method and show that UIVI's MCMC loop can be effectively replaced via importance sampling and the optimal proposal distribution can be learned stably by minimizing an expected forward Kullback–Leibler divergence without bias. Our refined approach demonstrates superior performance or parity with state-of-the-art methods on established SIVI benchmarks.