Theory · statistics

We show that deep neural networks can achieve dimension-independent rates of convergence for learning structured densities typical of image, audio, video, and text data. For example, in images, where each pixel becomes independent of the rest of the image when conditioned on pixels at most $t$ steps away, a simple $L^2$-minimizing neural network can attain a rate of $n^{-1/((t+1)^2+4)}$, where $t$ is independent of the ambient dimension $d$, i.e. the total number of pixels. We further provide empirical evidence that, in real-world applications, $t$ is often a small constant, thus effectively circumventing the curse of dimensionality. Moreover, for sequential data (e.g., audio or text) exhibiting a similar local dependence structure, our analysis shows a rate of $n^{-1/(t+5)}$, offering further evidence of dimension independence in practical scenarios.

We study the complexity of learning $k$-mixtures of Gaussians ($k$-GMMs) on $\mathbb R^d$. This task is known to have complexity $d^{\Omega(k)}$ in full generality. To circumvent this exponential lower bound on the number of components, research has focused on learning families of GMMs satisfying additional structural properties. A natural assumption posits that the component weights are not exponentially small and that the components have the same unknown covariance. Recent work gave a $d^{O(\log(1/w_{\min}))}$-time algorithm for this class of GMMs, where $w_{\min}$ is the minimum weight. Our first main result is a Statistical Query (SQ) lower bound showing that this quasi-polynomial upper bound is essentially best possible, even for the special case of uniform weights. Specifically, we show that it is SQ-hard to distinguish between such a mixture and the standard Gaussian. We further explore how the distribution of weights affects the complexity of this task. Our second main result is a quasi-polynomial upper bound for the aforementioned testing task when most of the weights are uniform while a small fraction of the weights are potentially arbitrary.

Feature learning in neural networks is crucial for their expressive power and inductive biases, motivating various theoretical approaches. Some approaches describe network behavior after training through a change in kernel scale from initialization, resulting in a generalization power comparable to a Gaussian process. Conversely, in other approaches training results in the adaptation of the kernel to the data, involving directional changes to the kernel. The relationship and respective strengths of these two views have so far remained unresolved. This work presents a theoretical framework of multi-scale adaptive feature learning bridging these two views. Using methods from statistical mechanics, we derive analytical expressions for network output statistics which are valid across scaling regimes and in the continuum between them. A systematic expansion of the network's probability distribution reveals that mean-field scaling requires only a saddle-point approximation, while standard scaling necessitates additional correction terms. Remarkably, we find across regimes that kernel adaptation can be reduced to an effective kernel rescaling when predicting the mean network output in the special case of a linear network. However, for linear and non-linear networks, the multi-scale adaptive approach captures directional feature learning effects, providing richer insights than what could be recovered from a rescaling of the kernel alone.

Nonparametric contextual bandit is an important model of sequential decision making problems. Under $\alpha$-Tsybakov margin condition, existing research has established a regret bound of $\tilde{O}\left(T^{1-\frac{\alpha+1}{d+2}}\right)$ for bounded supports. However, the optimal regret with unbounded contexts has not been analyzed. The challenge of solving contextual bandit problems with unbounded support is to achieve both exploration-exploitation tradeoff and bias-variance tradeoff simultaneously. In this paper, we solve the nonparametric contextual bandit problem with unbounded contexts. We propose two nearest neighbor methods combined with UCB exploration. The first method uses a fixed $k$. Our analysis shows that this method achieves minimax optimal regret under a weak margin condition and relatively light-tailed context distributions. The second method uses adaptive $k$. By a proper data-driven selection of $k$, this method achieves an expected regret of $\tilde{O}\left(T^{1-\frac{(\alpha+1)\beta}{\alpha+(d+2)\beta}}+T^{1-\beta}\right)$, in which $\beta$ is a parameter describing the tail strength. This bound matches the minimax lower bound up to logarithm factors, indicating that the second method is approximately optimal.

In the rapidly growing literature on explanation algorithms, it often remains unclear what precisely these algorithms are for and how they should be used. In this position paper, we argue for a novel and pragmatic perspective: Explainable machine learning needs to recognize its parallels with applied statistics. Concretely, explanations are statistics of high-dimensional functions, and we should think about them analogously to traditional statistical quantities. Among others, this implies that we must think carefully about the matter of interpretation, or how the explanations relate to intuitive questions that humans have about the world. The fact that this is scarcely being discussed in research papers is one of the main drawbacks of the current literature. Moving forward, the analogy between explainable machine learning and applied statistics provides a fruitful way for how research practices can be improved.

We study the task of list-decodable linear regression using batches, recently introduced by Das et al. 2023.. In this setting, we are given $m$ batches with each batch containing $n$ points in $\mathbb R^d$. A batch is called clean if the points it contains are i.i.d. samples from an unknown linear regression distribution. For a parameter $\alpha \in (0, 1/2)$, an unknown $\alpha$-fraction of the batches are clean and no assumptions are made on the remaining batches. The goal is to output a small list of vectors at least one of which is close to the true regressor vector in $\ell_2$-norm. Das et al. 2023 gave an efficient algorithm for this task, under natural distributional assumptions, with the following guarantee. Under the assumption that the batch size satisfies $n \geq \tilde{\Omega}(\alpha^{-1})$ and the total number of batches is $m = \text{poly}(d, n, 1/\alpha)$, their algorithm runs in polynomial time and outputs a list of $O(1/\alpha^2)$ vectors at least one of which is $\tilde{O}(\alpha^{-1/2}/\sqrt{n})$ close to the target regressor. Here we design a new polynomial-time algorithm for this task with significantly stronger guarantees under the assumption that the low-degree moments of the covariates distribution are Sum-of-Squares (SoS) certifiably bounded. Specifically, for any constant $\delta>0$, as long as the batch size is $n \geq \Omega_{\delta}(\alpha^{-\delta})$ and the degree-$\Theta(1/\delta)$ moments of the covariates are SoS certifiably bounded, our algorithm uses $m = \text{poly}((dn)^{1/\delta}, 1/\alpha)$ batches, runs in polynomial-time, and outputs an $O(1/\alpha)$-sized list of vectors one of which is $O(\alpha^{-\delta/2}/\sqrt{n})$ close to the target. That is, our algorithm substantially improves both the minimum batch size and the final error guarantee, while achieving the optimal list size. Our approach leverages higher-order moment information by carefully combining the SoS paradigm interleaved with an iterative method and a novel list pruning procedure for this setting. In the process, we give an SoS proof of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality that may be of broader applicability.

We study the algorithmic problem of robust mean estimation of an identity covariance Gaussian in the presence of mean-shift contamination. In this contamination model, we are given a set of points in $\mathbb{R}^d$ generated i.i.d. via the following process. For a parameter $\alpha<1/2$, the $i$-th sample $x_i$ is obtained as follows: with probability $1-\alpha$, $x_i$ is drawn from $\mathcal{N}(\mu, I)$, where $\mu \in \mathbb{R}^d$ is the target mean; and with probability $\alpha$, $x_i$ is drawn from $\mathcal{N}(z_i, I)$, where $z_i$ is unknown and potentially arbitrary. Prior work characterized the information-theoretic limits of this task. Specifically, it was shown that— in contrast to Huber contamination— in the presence of mean-shift contamination consistent estimation is possible. On the other hand, all known robust estimators in the mean-shift model have running times exponential in the dimension. Here we give the first computationally efficient algorithm for high-dimensional robust mean estimation with mean-shift contamination that can tolerate a constant fraction of outliers. In particular, our algorithm has near-optimal sample complexity, runs in sample-polynomial time, and approximates the target mean to any desired accuracy. Conceptually, our result contributes to a growing body of work that studies inference with respect to natural noise models lying in between fully adversarial and random settings.

We study universal properties in real-world complex and synthetically generated datasets. Our approach is to analogize data to a physical system and employ tools from statistical physics and Random Matrix Theory (RMT) to reveal their underlying structure. Examining the local and global eigenvalue statistics of feature-feature covariance matrices, we find: (i) bulk eigenvalue power-law scaling vastly differs between uncorrelated Gaussian and real-world data, (ii) this power law behavior is reproducible using Gaussian data with long-range correlations, (iii) all dataset types exhibit chaotic RMT universality, (iv) RMT statistics emerge at smaller dataset sizes than typical training sets, correlating with power-law convergence, (v) Shannon entropy correlates with RMT structure and requires fewer samples in strongly correlated datasets. These results suggest natural image Gram matrices can be approximated by Wishart random matrices with simple covariance structure, enabling rigorous analysis of neural network behavior.

As machine learning models grow increasingly competent, their predictions can supplement scarce or expensive data in various important domains. In support of this paradigm, algorithms have emerged to combine a small amount of high-fidelity observed data with a much larger set of imputed model outputs to estimate some quantity of interest. Yet current hybrid-inference tools target only means or single quantiles, limiting their applicability for many critical domains and use cases. We present QuEst, a principled framework to merge observed and imputed data to deliver point estimates and rigorous confidence intervals for a wide family of quantile-based distributional measures. QuEst covers a range of measures, from tail risk (CVaR) to population segments such as quartiles, that are central to fields such as economics, sociology, education, medicine, and more. We extend QuEst to multidimensional metrics, and introduce an additional optimization technique to further reduce variance in this and other hybrid estimators. We demonstrate the utility of our framework through experiments in economic modeling, opinion polling, and language model auto-evaluation.

Recent developments in large language models (LLMs) have led to their widespread usage for various tasks. The prevalence of LLMs in society implores the assurance on the reliability of their performance. In particular, risk-sensitive applications demand meticulous attention to unexpectedly poor outcomes, i.e., tail events, for instance, toxic answers, humiliating language, and offensive outputs. Due to the costly nature of acquiring human annotations, general-purpose scoring models have been created to automate the process of quantifying these tail events. This phenomenon introduces potential human-machine misalignment between the respective scoring mechanisms. In this work, we present a lightweight calibration framework for blackbox models that ensures the alignment of humans and machines with provable guarantees. Our framework provides a rigorous approach to controlling any distortion risk measure that is characterized by a weighted average of quantiles of the loss incurred by the LLM with high confidence. The theoretical foundation of our method relies on the connection between conformal risk control and a traditional family of statistics, i.e., L-statistics. To demonstrate the utility of our framework, we conduct comprehensive experiments that address the issue of human-machine misalignment.

In this paper, we investigate deep feedforward neural networks with random weights. The input data matrix $\boldsymbol{X}$ is drawn from a Gaussian mixture model. We demonstrate that certain eigenvalues of the conjugate kernel and neural tangent kernel may lie outside the support of their limiting spectral measures in the high-dimensional regime. The existence and asymptotic positions of such isolated eigenvalues are rigorously analyzed. Furthermore, we provide a precise characterization of the entrywise limit of the projection matrix onto the eigenspace associated with these isolated eigenvalues. Our findings reveal that the eigenspace captures inherent group features present in $\boldsymbol{X}$. This study offers a quantitative analysis of how group features from the input data evolve through hidden layers in randomly weighted neural networks.

Learning models have been shown to rely on spurious correlations between non-predictive features and the associated labels in the training data, with negative implications on robustness, bias and fairness. In this work, we provide a statistical characterization of this phenomenon for high-dimensional regression, when the data contains a predictive *core* feature $x$ and a *spurious* feature $y$. Specifically, we quantify the amount of spurious correlations $\mathcal C$ learned via linear regression, in terms of the data covariance and the strength $\lambda$ of the ridge regularization. As a consequence, we first capture the simplicity of $y$ through the spectrum of its covariance, and its correlation with $x$ through the Schur complement of the full data covariance. Next, we prove a trade-off between $\mathcal C$ and the in-distribution test loss $\mathcal L$, by showing that the value of $\lambda$ that minimizes $\mathcal L$ lies in an interval where $\mathcal C$ is increasing. Finally, we investigate the effects of over-parameterization via the random features model, by showing its equivalence to regularized linear regression. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments on Gaussian, Color-MNIST, and CIFAR-10 datasets.

Typical contextual bandit algorithms assume that the rewards at each round lie in some fixed range $[0, R]$, and their regret scales polynomially with this reward range $R$. However, many practical scenarios naturally involve heavy-tailed rewards or rewards where the worst-case range can be substantially larger than the variance. In this paper, we develop an algorithmic approach building on Catoni's estimator from robust statistics, and apply it to contextual bandits with general function approximation. When the variance of the reward at each round is known, we use a variance-weighted regression approach and establish a regret bound that depends only on the cumulative reward variance and logarithmically on the reward range $R$ as well as the number of rounds $T$. For the unknown-variance case, we further propose a careful peeling-based algorithm and remove the need for cumbersome variance estimation. With additional dependence on the fourth moment, our algorithm also enjoys a variance-based bound with logarithmic reward-range dependence. Moreover, we demonstrate the optimality of the leading-order term in our regret bound through a matching lower bound.