Sim-to-Real

Dynamic pricing strategies are crucial for firms to maximize revenue by adjusting prices based on market conditions and customer characteristics. However, designing optimal pricing strategies becomes challenging when historical data are limited, as is often the case when launching new products or entering new markets. One promising approach to overcome this limitation is to leverage information from related products or markets to inform the focal pricing decisions. In this paper, we explore transfer learning for nonparametric contextual dynamic pricing under a covariate shift model, where the marginal distributions of covariates differ between source and target domains while the reward functions remain the same. We propose a novel Transfer Learning for Dynamic Pricing (TLDP) algorithm that can effectively leverage pre-collected data from a source domain to enhance pricing decisions in the target domain. The regret upper bound of TLDP is established under a simple Lipschitz condition on the reward function. To establish the optimality of TLDP, we further derive a matching minimax lower bound, which includes the target-only scenario as a special case and is presented for the first time in the literature. Extensive numerical experiments validate our approach, demonstrating its superiority over existing methods and highlighting its practical utility in real-world applications.

While super-resolution (SR) methods based on diffusion models (DM) have demonstrated inspiring performance, their deployment is impeded due to the heavy request of memory and computation. Recent researchers apply two kinds of methods to compress or fasten the DM. One is to compress the DM into 1-bit, aka binarization, alleviating the storage and computation pressure. The other distills the multi-step DM into only one step, significantly speeding up inference process. Nonetheless, it remains impossible to deploy DM to resource-limited edge devices. To address this problem, we propose BiMaCoSR, which combines binarization and one-step distillation to obtain extreme compression and acceleration. To prevent the catastrophic collapse of the model caused by binarization, we proposed sparse matrix branch (SMB) and low rank matrix branch (LRM). Both auxiliary branches pass the full-precision (FP) information but in different ways. SMB absorbs the extreme values and its output is high rank, carrying abundant FP information. Whereas, the design of LRMB is inspired by LoRA and is initialized with the top r SVD components, outputting low rank representation. The computation and storage overhead of our proposed branches can be safely ignored. Comprehensive comparison experiments are conducted to exhibit BiMaCoSR outperforms current state-of-the-art binarization methods and gains competitive performance compared with FP one-step model. Moreover, we achieve excellent compression and acceleration. BiMaCoSR achieves a 23.8x compression ratio and a 27.4x speedup ratio compared to FP counterpart. Our code and model are available at https://github.com/Kai-Liu001/BiMaCoSR

Data pruning -- the combinatorial task of selecting a small and representative subset from a large dataset, is crucial for mitigating the enormous computational costs associated with training data-hungry modern deep learning models at scale. Since large-scale data collections are invariably noisy, developing data pruning strategies that remain robust even in the presence of corruption is critical in practice. Existing data pruning methods often fail under high corruption rates due to their reliance on empirical mean estimation, which is highly sensitive to outliers. In response, this work proposes Geometric Median (GM) Matching, a novel k-subset selection strategy that leverages the Geometric Median (GM) , a robust estimator with an optimal breakdown point of 1/2; to enhance resilience against noisy data. Our method iteratively selects a $k$-subset such that the mean of the subset approximates the GM of the (potentially) noisy dataset, ensuring robustness even under arbitrary corruption. We provide theoretical guarantees, showing that GM Matching enjoys an improved $\mathcal{O}(1/k)$ convergence rate, outperforming $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{k})$ scaling of uniform sampling, even under arbitrary corruption. Extensive experiments across image classification and image generation tasks demonstrate that GM Matching consistently outperforms existing pruning approaches, particularly in high-corruption settings; making it a strong baseline for robust data pruning.

We propose HyperIV, a novel approach for real-time implied volatility smoothing that eliminates the need for traditional calibration procedures. Our method employs a hypernetwork to generate parameters for a compact neural network that constructs complete volatility surfaces within 2 milliseconds, using only 9 market observations. Moreover, the generated surfaces are guaranteed to be free of static arbitrage. Extensive experiments across 8 index options demonstrate that HyperIV achieves superior accuracy compared to existing methods while maintaining computational efficiency. The model also exhibits strong cross-asset generalization capabilities, indicating broader applicability across different market instruments. These key features -- rapid adaptation to market conditions, guaranteed absence of arbitrage, and minimal data requirements -- make HyperIV particularly valuable for real-time trading applications. We make code available at https://github.com/qmfin/hyperiv.

Realizing the vision of using AI agents to automate critical IT tasks depends on the ability to measure and understand effectiveness of proposed solutions. We introduce ITBench, a framework that offers a systematic methodology for benchmarking AI agents to address real-world IT automation tasks. Our initial release targets three key areas: Site Reliability Engineering (SRE), Compliance and Security Operations (CISO), and Financial Operations (FinOps). The design enables AI researchers to understand the challenges and opportunities of AI agents for IT automation with push-button workflows and interpretable metrics. IT-Bench includes an initial set of 102 real-world scenarios, which can be easily extended by community contributions. Our results show that agents powered by state-of-the-art models resolve only 11.4% of SRE scenarios, 25.2% of CISO scenarios, and 25.8% of FinOps scenarios (excluding anomaly detection). For FinOps-specific anomaly detection (AD) scenarios, AI agents achieve an F1 score of 0.35. We expect ITBench to be a key enabler of AI-driven IT automation that is correct, safe, and fast. IT-Bench, along with a leaderboard and sample agent implementations, is available at https://github.com/ibm/itbench.

Automotive drag coefficient ($C_d$) is pivotal to energy efficiency, fuel consumption, and aerodynamic performance. However, costly computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and wind tunnel tests struggle to meet the rapid-iteration demands of automotive design. We present DragSolver, a Transformer-based framework for rapid and accurate $C_d$ estimation from large-scale, diverse 3D vehicle models. DragSolver tackles four key real-world challenges: (1) multi-scale feature extraction to capture both global shape and fine local geometry; (2) heterogeneous scale normalization to handle meshes with varying sizes and densities; (3) surface-guided gating to suppress internal structures irrelevant to external aerodynamics; and (4) epistemic uncertainty estimation via Monte Carlo dropout for risk-aware design. Extensive evaluations on three industrial-scale datasets (DrivaerNet, DrivaerNet++, and DrivaerML) show that DragSolver outperforms existing approaches in accuracy and generalization, achieving an average reduction of relative $L_2$ error by 58.7% across real-world datasets. Crucially, DragSolver is the first to achieve reliable, real-time $C_d$ inference on production-level automotive geometries.

We evaluate methods for causal representation learning (CRL) on a simple, real-world system where these methods are expected to work. The system consists of a controlled optical experiment specifically built for this purpose, which satisfies the core assumptions of CRL and where the underlying causal factors---the inputs to the experiment---are known, providing a ground truth. We select methods representative of different approaches to CRL and find that they all fail to recover the underlying causal factors. To understand the failure modes of the evaluated algorithms, we perform an ablation on the data by substituting the real data-generating process with a simpler synthetic equivalent. The results reveal a reproducibility problem, as most methods already fail on this synthetic ablation despite its simple data-generating process. Additionally, we observe that common assumptions on the mixing function are crucial for the performance of some of the methods but do not hold in the real data. Our efforts highlight the contrast between the theoretical promise of the state of the art and the challenges in its application. We hope the benchmark serves as a simple, real-world sanity check to further develop and validate methodology, bridging the gap towards CRL methods that work in practice. We make all code and datasets publicly available at <anonymized>.

The ultimate goal of verification is to guarantee the safety of deployed neural networks. Here, we claim that all the state-of-the-art verifiers we are aware of fail to reach this goal. Our key insight is that theoretical soundness (bounding the full-precision output while computing with floating point) does not imply practical soundness (bounding the floating point output in a potentially stochastic environment). We prove this observation for the approaches that are currently used to achieve provable theoretical soundness, such as interval analysis and its variants. We also argue that achieving practical soundness is significantly harder computationally. We support our claims empirically as well by evaluating several well-known verification methods. To mislead the verifiers, we create adversarial networks that detect and exploit features of the deployment environment, such as the order and precision of floating point operations. We demonstrate that all the tested verifiers are vulnerable to our new deployment-specific attacks, which proves that they are not practically sound.

Probabilistic survival analysis models seek to estimate the distribution of the future occurrence (time) of an event given a set of covariates. In recent years, these models have preferred nonparametric specifications that avoid directly estimating survival distributions via discretization. Specifically, they estimate the probability of an individual event at fixed times or the time of an event at fixed probabilities (quantiles), using supervised learning. Borrowing ideas from the quantile regression literature, we propose a parametric survival analysis method based on the Asymmetric Laplace Distribution (ALD). This distribution allows for closed-form calculation of popular event summaries such as mean, median, mode, variation, and quantiles. The model is optimized by maximum likelihood to learn, at the individual level, the parameters (location, scale, and asymmetry) of the ALD distribution. Extensive results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms parametric and nonparametric approaches in terms of accuracy, discrimination and calibration.

External controls from historical trials or observational data can augment randomized controlled trials when large-scale randomization is impractical or unethical, such as in drug evaluation for rare diseases. However, non-randomized external controls can introduce biases, and existing Bayesian and frequentist methods may inflate the type I error rate, particularly in small-sample trials where external data borrowing is most critical. To address these challenges, we propose a randomization inference framework that ensures finite-sample exact and model-free type I error rate control, adhering to the “analyze as you randomize” principle to safeguard against hidden biases. Recognizing that biased external controls reduce the power of randomization tests, we leverage conformal inference to develop an individualized test-then-pool procedure that selectively borrows comparable external controls to improve power. Our approach incorporates selection uncertainty into randomization tests, providing valid post-selection inference. Additionally, we propose an adaptive procedure to optimize the selection threshold by minimizing the mean squared error across a class of estimators encompassing both no-borrowing and full-borrowing approaches. The proposed methods are supported by non-asymptotic theoretical analysis, validated through simulations, and applied to a randomized lung cancer trial that integrates external controls from the National Cancer Database.

Despite the impressive advancements in modern machine learning, achieving robustness in Domain Generalization (DG) tasks remains a significant challenge. In DG, models are expected to perform well on samples from unseen test distributions (also called domains), by learning from multiple related training distributions. Most existing approaches to this problem rely on single-valued predictions, which inherently limit their robustness. We argue that set-valued predictors could be leveraged to enhance robustness across unseen domains, while also taking into account that these sets should be as small as possible. We introduce a theoretical framework defining successful set prediction in the DG setting, focusing on meeting a predefined performance criterion across as many domains as possible, and provide theoretical insights into the conditions under which such domain generalization is achievable. We further propose a practical optimization method compatible with modern learning architectures, that balances robust performance on unseen domains with small prediction set sizes. We evaluate our approach on several real-world datasets from the WILDS benchmark, demonstrating its potential as a promising direction for robust domain generalization.

Constructing robust simulators is essential for asking "what if?" questions and guiding policy in critical domains like healthcare and logistics. However, existing methods often struggle, either failing to generalize beyond historical data or, when using Large Language Models (LLMs), suffering from inaccuracies and poor empirical alignment. We introduce **G-Sim**, a hybrid framework that automates simulator construction by synergizing LLM-driven structural design with rigorous empirical calibration. G-Sim employs an LLM in an iterative loop to propose and refine a simulator's core components and causal relationships, guided by domain knowledge. This structure is then grounded in reality by estimating its parameters using flexible calibration techniques. Specifically, G-Sim can leverage methods that are both **likelihood-free** and **gradient-free** with respect to the simulator, such as **gradient-free optimization** for direct parameter estimation or **simulation-based inference** for obtaining a posterior distribution over parameters. This allows it to handle non-differentiable and stochastic simulators. By integrating domain priors with empirical evidence, G-Sim produces reliable, causally-informed simulators, mitigating data-inefficiency and enabling robust system-level interventions for complex decision-making.

A central challenge in transfer learning is designing algorithms that can quickly adapt and generalize to new tasks without retraining. Yet, the conditions of when and how algorithms can effectively transfer to new tasks is poorly characterized. We introduce a geometric characterization of transfer in Hilbert spaces and define three types of inductive transfer: interpolation within the convex hull, extrapolation to the linear span, and extrapolation outside the span. We propose a method grounded in the theory of function encoders to achieve all three types of transfer. Specifically, we introduce a novel training scheme for function encoders using least-squares optimization, prove a universal approximation theorem for function encoders, and provide a comprehensive comparison with existing approaches such as transformers and meta-learning on four diverse benchmarks. Our experiments demonstrate that the function encoder outperforms state-of-the-art methods on four benchmark tasks and on all three types of transfer.

We study transfer learning for matrix completion in a Missing Not-at-Random (MNAR) setting that is motivated by biological problems. The target matrix $Q$ has entire rows and columns missing, making estimation impossible without side information. To address this, we use a noisy and incomplete source matrix $P$, which relates to $Q$ via a feature shift in latent space. We consider both the *active* and *passive* sampling of rows and columns. We establish minimax lower bounds for entrywise estimation error in each setting. Our computationally efficient estimation framework achieves this lower bound for the active setting, which leverages the source data to query the most informative rows and columns of $Q$. This avoids the need for *incoherence* assumptions required for rate optimality in the passive sampling setting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through comparisons with existing algorithms on real-world biological datasets.

Maximizing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a standard approach to imbalanced binary classification tasks. Existing AUC maximization methods typically assume that training and test distributions are identical. However, this assumption is often violated due to {\it a covariate shift}, where the input distribution can vary but the conditional distribution of the class label given the input remains unchanged. The importance weighting is a common approach to the covariate shift, which minimizes the test risk with importance-weighted training data. However, it cannot maximize the AUC. In this paper, to achieve this, we theoretically derive two estimators of the test AUC risk under the covariate shift by using positive and unlabeled (PU) data in the training distribution and unlabeled data in the test distribution. Our first estimator is calculated from importance-weighted PU data in the training distribution, and the second one is calculated from importance-weighted positive data in the training distribution and unlabeled data in the test distribution. We train classifiers by minimizing a weighted sum of the two AUC risk estimators that approximates the test AUC risk. Unlike the existing importance weighting, our method does not require negative labels and class-priors. We show the effectiveness of our method with six real-world datasets.

Label completion serves as a preprocessing approach to handling the sparse crowdsourced label matrix problem, significantly boosting the effectiveness of the downstream label aggregation. In recent advances, worker modeling has been proved to be a powerful strategy to further improve the performance of label completion. However, in real-world scenarios, workers typically annotate only a few instances, leading to insufficient worker modeling and thus limiting the improvement of label completion. To address this issue, we propose a novel transfer learning-based label completion (TLLC) method. Specifically, we first identify all high-confidence instances from the whole crowdsourced data as a source domain and use it to pretrain a Siamese network. The abundant annotated instances in the source domain provide essential knowledge for worker modeling. Then, we transfer the pretrained network to the target domain with the instances annotated by each worker separately, ensuring worker modeling captures unique characteristics of each worker. Finally, we leverage the new embeddings learned by the transferred network to complete each worker’s missing labels. Extensive experiments on several widely used real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of TLLC. Our codes and datasets are available at https://github.com/jiangliangxiao/TLLC.

Domain randomization in reinforcement learning is an established technique for increasing the robustness of control policies learned in simulation. By randomizing properties of the environment during training, the learned policy can be robust to uncertainty along the randomized dimensions. While the environment distribution is typically specified by hand, in this paper we investigate the problem of automatically discovering this sampling distribution via entropy-regularized reward maximization of a neural sampling distribution in the form of a normalizing flow. We show that this architecture is more flexible and results in better robustness than existing approaches to learning simple parameterized sampling distributions. We demonstrate that these policies can be used to learn robust policies for contact-rich assembly tasks. Additionally, we explore how these sampling distributions, in combination with a privileged value function, can be used for out-of-distribution detection in the context of an uncertainty-aware multi-step manipulation planner.

We present a conformal inference method for constructing lower prediction bounds for survival times from right-censored data, extending recent approaches designed for more restrictive type-I censoring scenarios. The proposed method imputes unobserved censoring times using a machine learning model, and then analyzes the imputed data using a survival model calibrated via weighted conformal inference. This approach is theoretically supported by an asymptotic double robustness property. Empirical studies on simulated and real data demonstrate that our method leads to relatively informative predictive inferences and is especially robust in challenging settings where the survival model may be inaccurate.