ICML 2024 Papers

In response to everyday queries, humans explicitly signal uncertainty and offer alternative answers when they are unsure. Machine learning models that output calibrated prediction sets through conformal prediction mimic this human behaviour; larger sets signal greater uncertainty while providing alternatives. In this work, we study the usefulness of conformal prediction sets as an aid for human decision making by conducting a pre-registered randomized controlled trial with conformal prediction sets provided to human subjects. With statistical significance, we find that when humans are given conformal prediction sets their accuracy on tasks improves compared to fixed-size prediction sets with the same coverage guarantee. The results show that quantifying model uncertainty with conformal prediction is helpful for human-in-the-loop decision making and human-AI teams.

2D human pose estimation predicts keypoint locations and the corresponding confidence. Calibration-wise, the confidence should be aligned with the pose accuracy. Yet existing pose estimation methods tend to estimate confidence with heuristics such as the maximum value of heatmaps. This work shows, through theoretical analysis and empirical verification, a calibration gap in current pose estimation frameworks. Our derivations directly lead to closed-form adjustments in the confidence based on additionally inferred instance size and visibility. Given the black-box nature of deep neural networks, however, it is not possible to close the gap with only closed-form adjustments. We go one step further and propose a Calibrated ConfidenceNet (CCNet) to explicitly learn network-specific adjustments with a confidence prediction branch. The proposed CCNet, as a lightweight post-hoc addition, improves the calibration of standard off-the-shelf pose estimation frameworks.