ICML 2024 Papers

International Conference on Machine Learning

Decision breakdown

2,610papers

Counted from the official paper list; may differ slightly from the number the conference announced.

  • Oral
    1445.5%
  • Spotlight
    1917.3%
  • Poster
    2,27587.2%

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Conformal Prediction Sets Improve Human Decision Making

Jesse C. Cresswell, Yi Sui, Bhargava Kumar, Noël Vouitsis

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In response to everyday queries, humans explicitly signal uncertainty and offer alternative answers when they are unsure. Machine learning models that output calibrated prediction sets through conformal prediction mimic this human behaviour; larger sets signal greater uncertainty while providing alternatives. In this work, we study the usefulness of conformal prediction sets as an aid for human decision making by conducting a pre-registered randomized controlled trial with conformal prediction sets provided to human subjects. With statistical significance, we find that when humans are given conformal prediction sets their accuracy on tasks improves compared to fixed-size prediction sets with the same coverage guarantee. The results show that quantifying model uncertainty with conformal prediction is helpful for human-in-the-loop decision making and human-AI teams.

Poster
Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preference

Wei-Lin Chiang, Lianmin Zheng, Ying Sheng, Anastasios Nikolas Angelopoulos, Tianle Li, Dacheng Li, Banghua Zhu, Hao Zhang, Michael Jordan, Joseph E. Gonzalez, Ion Stoica

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Large Language Models (LLMs) have unlocked new capabilities and applications; however, evaluating the alignment with human preferences still poses significant challenges. To address this issue, we introduce Chatbot Arena, an open platform for evaluating LLMs based on human preferences. Our methodology employs a pairwise comparison approach and leverages input from a diverse user base through crowdsourcing. The platform has been operational for several months, amassing over 240K votes. This paper describes the platform, analyzes the data we have collected so far, and explains the tried-and-true statistical methods we are using for efficient and accurate evaluation and ranking of models. We confirm that the crowdsourced questions are sufficiently diverse and discriminating and that the crowd-sourced human votes are in good agreement with those of expert raters. These analyses collectively establish a robust foundation for the credibility of Chatbot Arena. Because of its unique value and openness, Chatbot Arena has emerged as one of the most referenced LLM leaderboards, widely cited by leading LLM developers and companies. The platform is publicly available at https://chat.lmsys.org.

Poster
Explaining Graph Neural Networks via Structure-aware Interaction Index

Ngoc Bui, Hieu Trung Nguyen, Viet Anh Nguyen, Rex Ying

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The Shapley value is a prominent tool for interpreting black-box machine learning models thanks to its strong theoretical foundation. However, for models with structured inputs, such as graph neural networks, existing Shapley-based explainability approaches either focus solely on node-wise importance or neglect the graph structure when perturbing the input instance. This paper introduces the Myerson-Taylor interaction index that internalizes the graph structure into attributing the node values and the interaction values among nodes. Unlike the Shapley-based methods, the Myerson-Taylor index decomposes coalitions into components satisfying a pre-chosen connectivity criterion. We prove that the Myerson-Taylor index is the unique one that satisfies a system of five natural axioms accounting for graph structure and high-order interaction among nodes. Leveraging these properties, we propose Myerson-Taylor Structure-Aware Graph Explainer (MAGE), a novel explainer that uses the second-order Myerson-Taylor index to identify the most important motifs influencing the model prediction, both positively and negatively. Extensive experiments on various graph datasets and models demonstrate that our method consistently provides superior subgraph explanations compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Poster
On the Calibration of Human Pose Estimation

Kerui Gu, Rongyu Chen, Xuanlong Yu, Angela Yao

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2D human pose estimation predicts keypoint locations and the corresponding confidence. Calibration-wise, the confidence should be aligned with the pose accuracy. Yet existing pose estimation methods tend to estimate confidence with heuristics such as the maximum value of heatmaps. This work shows, through theoretical analysis and empirical verification, a calibration gap in current pose estimation frameworks. Our derivations directly lead to closed-form adjustments in the confidence based on additionally inferred instance size and visibility. Given the black-box nature of deep neural networks, however, it is not possible to close the gap with only closed-form adjustments. We go one step further and propose a Calibrated ConfidenceNet (CCNet) to explicitly learn network-specific adjustments with a confidence prediction branch. The proposed CCNet, as a lightweight post-hoc addition, improves the calibration of standard off-the-shelf pose estimation frameworks.

Poster