ICML 2023 Papers

Deep neural networks have been demonstrated to achieve phenomenal success in many domains, and yet their inner mechanisms are not well understood. In this paper, we investigate the curvature of image manifolds, i.e., the manifold deviation from being flat in its principal directions. We find that state-of-the-art trained convolutional neural networks for image classification have a characteristic curvature profile along layers: an initial steep increase, followed by a long phase of a plateau, and followed by another increase. In contrast, this behavior does not appear in untrained networks in which the curvature flattens. We also show that the curvature gap between the last two layers has a strong correlation with the generalization capability of the network. Moreover, we find that the intrinsic dimension of latent codes is not necessarily indicative of curvature. Finally, we observe that common regularization methods such as mixup yield flatter representations when compared to other methods. Our experiments show consistent results over a variety of deep learning architectures and multiple data sets.

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian perspective, and also addresses the scalability issues of previous attempts. Specifically, the proposed generalised Bayesian formalism leads to conjugate posteriors whose parameters are available in closed form by leveraging diffusion score matching. The resulting algorithm is exact, can be updated through simple algebra, and is more than 10 times faster than its closest competitor.

Due to privacy, storage, and other constraints, there is a growing need for unsupervised domain adaptation techniques in machine learning that do not require access to the data used to train a collection of source models. Existing methods for multi-source-free domain adaptation (MSFDA) typically train a target model using pseudo-labeled data produced by the source models, which focus on improving the pseudo-labeling techniques or proposing new training objectives. Instead, we aim to analyze the fundamental limits of MSFDA. In particular, we develop an information-theoretic bound on the generalization error of the resulting target model, which illustrates an inherent bias-variance trade-off. We then provide insights on how to balance this trade-off from three perspectives, including domain aggregation, selective pseudo-labeling, and joint feature alignment, which leads to the design of novel algorithms. Experiments on multiple datasets validate our theoretical analysis and demonstrate the state-of-art performance of the proposed algorithm, especially on some of the most challenging datasets, including Office-Home and DomainNet.

Policy Optimization (PO) is one of the most popular methods in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Thus, theoretical guarantees for PO algorithms have become especially important to the RL community. In this paper, we study PO in adversarial MDPs with a challenge that arises in almost every real-world application -- *delayed bandit feedback*. We give the first near-optimal regret bounds for PO in tabular MDPs, and may even surpass state-of-the-art (which uses less efficient methods). Our novel Delay-Adapted PO (DAPO) is easy to implement and to generalize, allowing us to extend our algorithm to: (i) infinite state space under the assumption of linear $Q$-function, proving the first regret bounds for delayed feedback with function approximation. (ii) deep RL, demonstrating its effectiveness in experiments on MuJoCo domains.

Diffusion models have exhibited excellent performance in various domains. The probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) of diffusion models (i.e., diffusion ODEs) is a particular case of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), which enables deterministic inference and exact likelihood evaluation. However, the likelihood estimation results by diffusion ODEs are still far from those of the state-of-the-art likelihood-based generative models. In this work, we propose several improved techniques for maximum likelihood estimation for diffusion ODEs, including both training and evaluation perspectives. For training, we propose velocity parameterization and explore variance reduction techniques for faster convergence. We also derive an error-bounded high-order flow matching objective for finetuning, which improves the ODE likelihood and smooths its trajectory. For evaluation, we propose a novel training-free truncated-normal dequantization to fill the training-evaluation gap commonly existing in diffusion ODEs. Building upon these techniques, we achieve state-of-the-art likelihood estimation results on image datasets (2.56 on CIFAR-10, 3.43/3.69 on ImageNet-32) without variational dequantization or data augmentation.

Deep neural networks have long been criticized for lacking the ability to perform analogical visual reasoning. Here, we propose a neural network model to solve Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM) - one of the standard intelligence tests in human psychology. Specifically, we design a reasoning block based on the well-known concept of prediction error (PE) in neuroscience. Our reasoning block uses convolution to extract abstract rules from high-level visual features of the 8 context images and generates the features of a predicted answer. PEs are then calculated between the predicted features and those of the 8 candidate answers, and are then passed to the next stage. We further integrate our novel reasoning blocks into a residual network and build a new Predictive Reasoning Network (PredRNet). Extensive experiments show that our proposed PredRNet achieves state-of-the-art average performance on several important RPM benchmarks. PredRNet also shows good generalization abilities in a variety of out-of-distribution scenarios and other visual reasoning tasks. Most importantly, our PredRNet forms low-dimensional representations of abstract rules and minimizes hierarchical prediction errors during model training, supporting the critical role of PE minimization in visual reasoning. Our work highlights the potential of using neuroscience theories to solve abstract visual reasoning problems in artificial intelligence. The code is available at https://github.com/ZjjConan/AVR-PredRNet.

Learning to control an agent from offline data collected in a rich pixel-based visual observation space is vital for real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL). A major challenge in this setting is the presence of input information that is hard to model and irrelevant to controlling the agent. This problem has been approached by the theoretical RL community through the lens of *exogenous information*, i.e., any control-irrelevant information contained in observations. For example, a robot navigating in busy streets needs to ignore irrelevant information, such as other people walking in the background, textures of objects, or birds in the sky. In this paper, we focus on the setting with visually detailed exogenous information and introduce new offline RL benchmarks that offer the ability to study this problem. We find that contemporary representation learning techniques can fail on datasets where the noise is a complex and time-dependent process, which is prevalent in practical applications. To address these, we propose to use multi-step inverse models to learn Agent-Centric Representations for Offline-RL (ACRO). Despite being simple and reward-free, we show theoretically and empirically that the representation created by this objective greatly outperforms baselines.

We propose a new method to ensure neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) satisfy output specifications by using invariance set propagation. Our approach uses a class of control barrier functions to transform output specifications into constraints on the parameters and inputs of the learning system. This setup allows us to achieve output specification guarantees simply by changing the constrained parameters/inputs both during training and inference. Moreover, we demonstrate that our invariance set propagation through data-controlled neural ODEs not only maintains generalization performance but also creates an additional degree of robustness by enabling causal manipulation of the system's parameters/inputs. We test our method on a series of representation learning tasks, including modeling physical dynamics and convexity portraits, as well as safe collision avoidance for autonomous vehicles.

The measure of a machine learning algorithm is the difficulty of the tasks it can perform, and sufficiently difficult tasks are critical drivers of strong machine learning models. However, quantifying the generalization difficulty of machine learning benchmarks has remained challenging. We propose what is to our knowledge the first model-agnostic measure of the inherent generalization difficulty of tasks. Our inductive bias complexity measure quantifies the total information required to generalize well on a task minus the information provided by the data. It does so by measuring the fractional volume occupied by hypotheses that generalize on a task given that they fit the training data. It scales exponentially with the intrinsic dimensionality of the space over which the model must generalize but only polynomially in resolution per dimension, showing that tasks which require generalizing over many dimensions are drastically more difficult than tasks involving more detail in fewer dimensions. Our measure can be applied to compute and compare supervised learning, reinforcement learning and meta-learning generalization difficulties against each other. We show that applied empirically, it formally quantifies intuitively expected trends, e.g. that in terms of required inductive bias, MNIST $<$ CIFAR10 $<$ Imagenet and fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs) $<$ partially observable MDPs. Further, we show that classification of complex images $<$ few-shot meta-learning with simple images. Our measure provides a quantitative metric to guide the construction of more complex tasks requiring greater inductive bias, and thereby encourages the development of more sophisticated architectures and learning algorithms with more powerful generalization capabilities.

To balance quality and cost, various domain areas of science and engineering run simulations at multiple levels of sophistication. Multi-fidelity active learning aims to learn a direct mapping from input parameters to simulation outputs at the highest fidelity by actively acquiring data from multiple fidelity levels. However, existing approaches based on Gaussian processes are hardly scalable to high-dimensional data. Deep learning-based methods often impose a hierarchical structure in hidden representations, which only supports passing information from low-fidelity to high-fidelity. These approaches can lead to the undesirable propagation of errors from low-fidelity representations to high-fidelity ones. We propose a novel framework called Disentangled Multi-fidelity Deep Bayesian Active Learning (D-MFDAL), which learns the surrogate models conditioned on the distribution of functions at multiple fidelities. On benchmark tasks of learning deep surrogates of partial differential equations including heat equation, Poisson's equation and fluid simulations, our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art in prediction accuracy and sample efficiency.

Data imbalance is a common problem in machine learning that can have a critical effect on the performance of a model. Various solutions exist but their impact on the convergence of the learning dynamics is not understood. Here, we elucidate the significant negative impact of data imbalance on learning, showing that the learning curves for minority and majority classes follow sub-optimal trajectories when training with a gradient-based optimizer. This slowdown is related to the imbalance ratio and can be traced back to a competition between the optimization of different classes. Our main contribution is the analysis of the convergence of full-batch (GD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and of variants that renormalize the contribution of each per-class gradient. We find that GD is not guaranteed to decrease the loss for each class but that this problem can be addressed by performing a per-class normalization of the gradient. With SGD, class imbalance has an additional effect on the direction of the gradients: the minority class suffers from a higher directional noise, which reduces the effectiveness of the per-class gradient normalization. Our findings not only allow us to understand the potential and limitations of strategies involving the per-class gradients, but also the reason for the effectiveness of previously used solutions for class imbalancesuch as oversampling.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the *sequential predictive conformal inference* (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

We study the problem of (learning) algorithm comparison, where the goal is to find differences between models trained with two different learning algorithms. We begin by formalizing this goal as one of finding distinguishing feature transformations, i.e., input transformations that change the predictions of models trained with one learning algorithm but not the other. We then present ModelDiff, a method that leverages the datamodels framework (Ilyas et al., 2022) to compare learning algorithms based on how they use their training data. We demonstrate ModelDiff through three case studies, comparing models trained with/without data augmentation, with/without pre-training, and with different SGD hyperparameters.

With the arrival of the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era and the fast development of machine learning, variational quantum algorithms (VQA) including Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) and quantum neural network (QNN) have received increasing attention with wide potential applications in foreseeable near future. We study the problem of quantum architecture search (QAS) for VQA to automatically design parameterized quantum circuits (PQC). We devise a differentiable searching algorithm based on Gumbel-Softmax in contrast to peer methods that often require numerous circuit sampling and evaluation. Two versions of our algorithm are provided, namely macro search and micro search, where macro search directly searches for the whole circuit like other literature while the innovative micro search is able to infer the sub-circuit structure from a small-scale and then transfer that to a large-scale problem. We conduct intensive experiments on unweighted Max-Cut, ground state energy estimation, and image classification. The superior performance shows the efficiency and capability of macro search, which requires little prior knowledge. Moreover, the experiments on micro search show the potential of our algorithm for large-scale QAS problems.

Discovering knowledge about which types of events influence others, using datasets of event sequences without time stamps, has several practical applications. While neural sequence models are able to capture complex and potentially long-range historical dependencies, they often lack the interpretability of simpler models for event sequence dynamics. We provide a novel neural framework in such a setting - a probabilistic attention-to-influence neural model - which not only captures complex instance-wise interactions between events but also learns influencers for each event type of interest. Given event sequence data and a prior distribution on type-wise influence, we efficiently learn an approximate posterior for type-wise influence by an attention-to-influence transformation using variational inference. Our method subsequently models the conditional likelihood of sequences by sampling the above posterior to focus attention on influencing event types. We motivate our general framework and show improved performance in experiments compared to existing baselines on synthetic data as well as real-world benchmarks, for tasks involving prediction and influencing set identification.

Universality is a key hypothesis in mechanistic interpretability -- that different models learn similar features and circuits when trained on similar tasks. In this work, we study the universality hypothesis by examining how small networks learn to implement group compositions. We present a novel algorithm by which neural networks may implement composition for any finite group via mathematical representation theory. We then show that these networks consistently learn this algorithm by reverse engineering model logits and weights, and confirm our understanding using ablations. By studying networks trained on various groups and architectures, we find mixed evidence for universality: using our algorithm, we can completely characterize the family of circuits and features that networks learn on this task, but for a given network the precise circuits learned -- as well as the order they develop -- are arbitrary.

Model-based reinforcement learning is a powerful tool, but collecting data to fit an accurate model of the system can be costly. Exploring an unknown environment in a sample-efficient manner is hence of great importance. However, the complexity of dynamics and the computational limitations of real systems make this task challenging. In this work, we introduce FLEX, an exploration algorithm for nonlinear dynamics based on optimal experimental design. Our policy maximizes the information of the next step and results in an adaptive exploration algorithm, compatible with arbitrary parametric learning models, and requiring minimal computing resources. We test our method on a number of nonlinear environments covering different settings, including time-varying dynamics. Keeping in mind that exploration is intended to serve an exploitation objective, we also test our algorithm on downstream model-based classical control tasks and compare it to other state-of-the-art model-based and model-free approaches. The performance achieved by FLEX is competitive and its computational cost is low.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is a crucial task across many fields, helping policy and decision-makers take better actions. There has been recent progress on robust and efficient methods for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function, but these methods often do not take into account the risk of hidden confounding, which could arbitrarily and unknowingly bias any causal estimate based on observational data. We propose a meta-learner called the B-Learner, which can efficiently learn sharp bounds on the CATE function under limits on the level of hidden confounding. We derive the B-Learner by adapting recent results for sharp and valid bounds of the average treatment effect (Dorn et al., 2021) into the framework given by Kallus & Oprescu (2023) for robust and model-agnostic learning of conditional distributional treatment effects. The B-Learner can use any function estimator such as random forests and deep neural networks, and we prove its estimates are valid, sharp, efficient, and have a quasi-oracle property with respect to the constituent estimators under more general conditions than existing methods. Semi-synthetic experimental comparisons validate the theoretical findings, and we use real-world data demonstrate how the method might be used in practice.

Placement is a critical step in modern chip design, aiming to determine the positions of circuit modules on the chip canvas. Recent works have shown that reinforcement learning (RL) can improve human performance in chip placement. However, such an RL-based approach suffers from long training time and low transfer ability in unseen chip circuits. To resolve these challenges, we cast the chip placement as an offline RL formulation and present ChiPFormer that enables learning a transferable placement policy from fixed offline data. ChiPFormer has several advantages that prior arts do not have. First, ChiPFormer can exploit offline placement designs to learn transferable policies more efficiently in a multi-task setting. Second, ChiPFormer can promote effective finetuning for unseen chip circuits, reducing the placement runtime from hours to minutes. Third, extensive experiments on 32 chip circuits demonstrate that ChiPFormer achieves significantly better placement quality while reducing the runtime by 10x compared to recent state-of-the-art approaches in both public benchmarks and realistic industrial tasks. The deliverables are released at https://sites.google.com/view/chipformer/home.