Sequential Recommendation

We initiate the study of strategic behavior in screening processes with multiple classifiers. We focus on two contrasting settings: a "conjunctive'' setting in which an individual must satisfy all classifiers simultaneously, and a sequential setting in which an individual to succeed must satisfy classifiers one at a time. In other words, we introduce the combination of strategic classificationwith screening processes. We show that sequential screening pipelines exhibit new and surprising behavior where individuals can exploit the sequential ordering of the tests to "zig-zag'' between classifiers without having to simultaneously satisfy all of them. We demonstrate an individual can obtain a positive outcome using a limited manipulation budget even when far from the intersection of the positive regions of every classifier. Finally, we consider a learner whose goal is to design a sequential screening process that is robust to such manipulations, and provide a construction for the learner that optimizes a natural objective.

Polar codes are widely used state-of-the-art codes for reliable communication that have recently been included in the $5^{\text{th}}$ generation wireless standards ($5$G). However, there still remains room for design of polar decoders that are both efficient and reliable in the short blocklength regime. Motivated by recent successes of data-driven channel decoders, we introduce a novel $\textbf{ C}$ur${\textbf{RI}}$culum based $\textbf{S}$equential neural decoder for $\textbf{P}$olar codes (CRISP). We design a principled curriculum, guided by information-theoretic insights, to train CRISP and show that it outperforms the successive-cancellation (SC) decoder and attains near-optimal reliability performance on the $\text{Polar}(32,16)$ and $\text{Polar}(64,22)$ codes. The choice of the proposed curriculum is critical in achieving the accuracy gains of CRISP, as we show by comparing against other curricula. More notably, CRISP can be readily extended to Polarization-Adjusted-Convolutional (PAC) codes, where existing SC decoders are significantly less reliable. To the best of our knowledge, CRISP constructs the first data-driven decoder for PAC codes and attains near-optimal performance on the $\text{PAC}(32,16)$ code.

Independence testing is a classical statistical problem that has been extensively studied in the batch setting when one fixes the sample size before collecting data. However, practitioners often prefer procedures that adapt to the complexity of a problem at hand instead of setting sample size in advance. Ideally, such procedures should (a) stop earlier on easy tasks (and later on harder tasks), hence making better use of available resources, and (b) continuously monitor the data and efficiently incorporate statistical evidence after collecting new data, while controlling the false alarm rate. Classical batch tests are not tailored for streaming data: valid inference after data peeking requires correcting for multiple testing which results in low power. Following the principle of testing by betting, we design sequential kernelized independence tests that overcome such shortcomings. We exemplify our broad framework using bets inspired by kernelized dependence measures, e.g., the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion. Our test is also valid under non-i.i.d. time-varying settings. We demonstrate the power of our approaches on both simulated and real data.

The study of Neural Tangent Kernels (NTKs) has provided much needed insight into convergence and generalization properties of neural networks in the over-parametrized (wide) limit by approximating the network using a first-order Taylor expansion with respect to its weights in the neighborhood of their initialization values. This allows neural network training to be analyzed from the perspective of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), which is informative in the over-parametrized regime, but a poor approximation for narrower networks as the weights change more during training. Our goal is to extend beyond the limits of NTK toward a more general theory. We construct an exact power-series representation of the neural network in a finite neighborhood of the initial weights as an inner product of two feature maps, respectively from data and weight-step space, to feature space, allowing neural network training to be analyzed from the perspective of reproducing kernel Banach space (RKBS). We prove that, regardless of width, the training sequence produced by gradient descent can be exactly replicated by regularized sequential learning in RKBS. Using this, we present novel bound on uniform convergence where the iterations count and learning rate play a central role, giving new theoretical insight into neural network training.

The primary goal in recommendation is to suggest relevant content to users, but optimizing for accuracy often results in recommendations that lack diversity. To remedy this, conventional approaches such as re-ranking improve diversity by *presenting* more diverse items. Here we argue that to promote inherent and prolonged diversity, the system must encourage its *creation*. Towards this, we harness the performative nature of recommendation, and show how learning can incentivize strategic content creators to create diverse content. Our approach relies on a novel form of regularization that anticipates strategic changes to content, and penalizes for content homogeneity. We provide analytic and empirical results that demonstrate when and how diversity can be incentivized, and experimentally demonstrate the utility of our approach on synthetic and semi-synthetic data.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the *sequential predictive conformal inference* (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome indirectly via the treatment variable(s). Most IV applications focus on low-dimensional treatments and crucially require at least as many instruments as treatments. This assumption is restrictive: in the natural sciences we often seek to infer causal effects of high-dimensional treatments (e.g., the effect of gene expressions or microbiota on health and disease), but can only run few experiments with a limited number of instruments (e.g., drugs or antibiotics). In such under-specified problems, the full treatment effect is not identifiable in a single experiment even in the linear case. We show that one can still reliably recover the projection of the treatment effect onto the instrumented subspace and develop techniques to consistently combine such partial estimates from different sets of instruments. We then leverage our combined estimators in an algorithm that iteratively proposes the most informative instruments at each round of experimentation to maximize the overall information about the full causal effect.

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

This study explores the impact of content creators' competition on user welfare in recommendation platforms, as well as the long-term dynamics of relevance-driven recommendations. We establish a model of creator competition, under the setting where the platform uses a top-$K$ recommendation policy, user decisions are guided by the Random Utility model, and creators, in absence of explicit utility functions, employ arbitrary no-regret learning algorithms for strategy updates. We study the user welfare guarantee through the lens of Price of Anarchy and show that the fraction of user welfare loss due to creator competition is always upper bounded by a small constant depending on $K$ and randomness in user decisions; we also prove the tightness of this bound. Our result discloses an intrinsic merit of the relevance-driven recommendation policy, as long as users' decisions involve randomness and the platform provides reasonably many alternatives to its users.

Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior, hyperparameters, and inducing points, making accurate learning challenging. Here, we present a method to keep all such errors in check using the recently proposed dual sparse variational GP. Our method enables accurate inference for generic likelihoods and improves learning by actively building and updating a memory of past data. We demonstrate its effectiveness in several applications involving Bayesian optimization, active learning, and continual learning.

Black box optimisation of an unknown function from expensive and noisy evaluations is a ubiquitous problem in machine learning, academic research and industrial production. An abstraction of the problem can be formulated as a kernel based bandit problem (also known as Bayesian optimisation), where a learner aims at optimising a kernelized function through sequential noisy observations. The existing work predominantly assumes feedback is immediately available; an assumption which fails in many real world situations, including recommendation systems, clinical trials and hyperparameter tuning. We consider a kernel bandit problem under stochastically delayed feedback, and propose an algorithm with $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\sqrt{\Gamma_k(T) T}+\mathbb{E}[\tau]\right)$ regret, where $T$ is the number of time steps, $\Gamma_k(T)$ is the maximum information gain of the kernel with $T$ observations, and $\tau$ is the delay random variable. This represents a significant improvement over the state of the art regret bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\Gamma_k(T)\sqrt{ T}+\mathbb{E}[\tau]\Gamma_k(T)\right)$ reported in (Verma et al., 2022). In particular, for very non-smooth kernels, the information gain grows almost linearly in time, trivializing the existing results. We also validate our theoretical results with simulations.

We present a simple reduction from sequential estimation to sequential changepoint detection (SCD). In short, suppose we are interested in detecting changepoints in some parameter or functional $\theta$ of the underlying distribution. We demonstrate that if we can construct a confidence sequence (CS) for $\theta$, then we can also successfully perform SCD for $\theta$. This is accomplished by checking if two CSs --- one forwards and the other backwards --- ever fail to intersect. Since the literature on CSs has been rapidly evolving recently, the reduction provided in this paper immediately solves several old and new change detection problems. Further, our ``backward CS'', constructed by reversing time, is new and potentially of independent interest. We provide strong nonasymptotic guarantees on the frequency of false alarms and detection delay, and demonstrate numerical effectiveness on several problems.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful technique that allows an autonomous agent to learn an optimal policy to maximize the expected return. The optimality of various RL algorithms relies on the stationarity assumption, which requires time-invariant state transition and reward functions. However, deviations from stationarity over extended periods often occur in real-world applications like robotics control, health care and digital marketing, resulting in suboptimal policies learned under stationary assumptions. In this paper, we propose a model-based doubly robust procedure for testing the stationarity assumption and detecting change points in offline RL settings with certain degree of homogeneity. Our proposed testing procedure is robust to model misspecifications and can effectively control type-I error while achieving high statistical power, especially in high-dimensional settings. Extensive comparative simulations and a real-world interventional mobile health example illustrate the advantages of our method in detecting change points and optimizing long-term rewards in high-dimensional, non-stationary environments.

Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) is a framework for dealing with the logged bandit feedback problem, where the goal is to improve a logging policy using offline data. In this paper, we explore the case where it is possible to deploy learned policies multiple times and acquire new data. We extend the CRM principle and its theory to this scenario, which we call "Sequential Counterfactual Risk Minimization (SCRM)." We introduce a novel counterfactual estimator and identify conditions that can improve the performance of CRM in terms of excess risk and regret rates, by using an analysis similar to restart strategies in accelerated optimization methods. We also provide an empirical evaluation of our method in both discrete and continuous action settings, and demonstrate the benefits of multiple deployments of CRM.