Gaussian Processes

Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) is a theoretically promising approach for black-box optimization; however, the confidence parameter $\beta$ is considerably large in the theorem and chosen heuristically in practice. Then, randomized GP-UCB (RGP-UCB) uses a randomized confidence parameter, which follows the Gamma distribution, to mitigate the impact of manually specifying $\beta$. This study first generalizes the regret analysis of RGP-UCB to a wider class of distributions, including the Gamma distribution. Furthermore, we propose improved RGP-UCB (IRGP-UCB) based on a two-parameter exponential distribution, which achieves tighter Bayesian regret bounds. IRGP-UCB does not require an increase in the confidence parameter in terms of the number of iterations, which avoids over-exploration in the later iterations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of IRGP-UCB through extensive experiments.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast $\ell_2$ gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

Horizon dependence is an important difference between reinforcement learning and other machine learning paradigms. Yet, existing results tackling the (exact) horizon dependence either assume that the reward is bounded per step, introducing unfair comparison, or assume strict total boundedness that requires the sum of rewards to be bounded *almost surely* -- allowing only restricted noise on the reward observation. This paper addresses these limitations by introducing a new relaxation -- *expected boundedness* on rewards, where we allow the reward to be stochastic with only boundedness on the *expected* sum -- opening the door to study horizon-dependence with a much broader set of reward functions with noises. We establish a novel generic algorithm that achieves *no-horizon dependence* in terms of sample complexity for both Markov Decision Processes (MDP) and Games, via reduction to a good-conditioned *auxiliary Markovian environment*, in which only ``important'' state-action pairs are preserved. The algorithm takes only $\tilde{O}(\frac{S^2A}{\epsilon^2})$ episodes interacting with such an environment to achieve an $\epsilon$-optimal policy/strategy (with high probability), improving (zhang, 2022) (which only applies to MDPs with deterministic rewards). Here $S$ is the number of states and $A$ is the number of actions, and the bound is independent of the horizon $H$.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

This paper revisits Gaussian Mixture Copula Model (GMCM), a more expressive alternative to the widely used Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), with the goal to make its parameter estimation tractable. Both the Expectation Maximization and the direct Likelihood Maximization frameworks for GMCM have to grapple with a likelihood function that lacks a closed form. This has led to a few approximation schemes that alleviate the problem, nonetheless leaving the issue still unresolved. Additionally, past works have alluded to an additional challenge of parameter non-identifiability, but none has offered a rigorous treatment and a commensurate solution framework to overcome the same. This work offers solutions to each of these issues in an attempt to help GMCM realize its full potential. The source of non-identifiability is not only proven but also suitable priors are proposed that eliminate the problem. Additionally, an efficient numerical framework is proposed to evaluate the intractable likelihood function, while also providing its analytical derivatives. Finally, a view of GMCM as a series of bijective mappings from a base distribution is presented, which paves the way to synthesize GMCM using modern, probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). The main claims of this work are supported by empirical evidence gathered on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Neural network approaches for meta-learning distributions over functions have desirable properties such as increased flexibility and a reduced complexity of inference. Building on the successes of denoising diffusion models for generative modelling, we propose Neural Diffusion Processes (NDPs), a novel approach that learns to sample from a rich distribution over functions through its finite marginals. By introducing a custom attention block we are able to incorporate properties of stochastic processes, such as exchangeability, directly into the NDP's architecture. We empirically show that NDPs can capture functional distributions close to the true Bayesian posterior, demonstrating that they can successfully emulate the behaviour of Gaussian processes and surpass the performance of neural processes. NDPs enable a variety of downstream tasks, including regression, implicit hyperparameter marginalisation, non-Gaussian posterior prediction and global optimisation.

We study regret minimization for reinforcement learning (RL) in Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs) with context in hindsight. We design a novel model-based algorithmic framework which can be instantiated with both a model-optimistic and a value-optimistic solver. We prove an $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{\mathsf{Var}^\star M \Gamma S A K})$ regret bound where $\tilde{O}$ hides logarithm factors, $M$ is the number of contexts, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, $K$ is the number of episodes, $\Gamma \le S$ is the maximum transition degree of any state-action pair, and $\mathsf{Var}^\star$ is a variance quantity describing the determinism of the LMDP. The regret bound only scales logarithmically with the planning horizon, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound for LMDP. This is also the first problem-dependent regret bound for LMDP. Key in our proof is an analysis of the total variance of alpha vectors (a generalization of value functions), which is handled with a truncation method. We complement our positive result with a novel $\Omega(\sqrt{\mathsf{Var}^\star M S A K})$ regret lower bound with $\Gamma = 2$, which shows our upper bound minimax optimal when $\Gamma$ is a constant for the class of variance-bounded LMDPs. Our lower bound relies on new constructions of hard instances and an argument inspired by the symmetrization technique from theoretical computer science, both of which are technically different from existing lower bound proof for MDPs, and thus can be of independent interest.

In many human-centric applications for Machine Learning instances will adapt to a classifier after its deployment. The field of strategic classification deals with this issue by aiming for a classifier that balances the trade-off between correctness and robustness to manipulation. This task is made harder if the underlying manipulation structure (i.e. the set of manipulations available at every instance) is unknown to the learner. We propose a novel batch-learning setting in which we use unlabeled data from previous rounds to estimate the manipulation structure. We show that in this batch-learning setting it is possible to learn a close-to-optimal classifier in terms of the strategic loss even without knowing the feasible manipulations beforehand. In line with recent advances in the strategic classification literature, we do not assume a best-response from agents but only require that observed manipulations are feasible.

We study a distributed stochastic multi-armed bandit where a client supplies the learner with communication-constrained feedback based on the rewards for the corresponding arm pulls. In our setup, the client must encode the rewards such that the second moment of the encoded rewards is no more than $P$, and this encoded reward is further corrupted by additive Gaussian noise of variance $\sigma^2$; the learner only has access to this corrupted reward. For this setting, we derive an information-theoretic lower bound of $\Omega\left(\sqrt{\frac{KT}{\mathtt{SNR} \wedge1}} \right)$ on the minimax regret of any scheme, where $\mathtt{SNR}\coloneqq \frac{P}{\sigma^2}$, and $K$ and $T$ are the number of arms and time horizon, respectively. Furthermore, we propose a multi-phase bandit algorithm, $\mathtt{UE}\text{-}\mathtt{UCB}\text{++}$, which matches this lower bound to a minor additive factor. $\mathtt{UE}\text{-}\mathtt{UCB}\text{++}$ performs uniform exploration in its initial phases and then utilizes the *upper confidence bound *(UCB) bandit algorithm in its final phase. An interesting feature of $\mathtt{UE}\text{-}\mathtt{UCB}\text{++}$ is that the coarser estimates of the mean rewards formed during a uniform exploration phase help to refine the encoding protocol in the next phase, leading to more accurate mean estimates of the rewards in the subsequent phase. This positive reinforcement cycle is critical to reducing the number of uniform exploration rounds and closely matching our lower bound.

We uncover how SGD interacts with batch normalization and can exhibit undesirable training dynamics such as divergence. More precisely, we study how Single Shuffle (SS) and Random Reshuffle (RR)---two widely used variants of SGD---interact surprisingly differently in the presence of batch normalization: RR leads to much more stable evolution of training loss than SS. As a concrete example, for regression using a linear network with batch normalized inputs, we prove that SS and RR converge to distinct global optima that are ``distorted'' away from gradient descent. Thereafter, for classification we characterize conditions under which training divergence for SS and RR can, and cannot occur. We present explicit constructions to show how SS leads to distorted optima in regression and divergence for classification, whereas RR avoids both distortion and divergence. We validate our results empirically in realistic settings, and conclude that the separation between SS and RR used with batch normalization is relevant in practice.

Despite their many desirable properties, Gaussian processes (GPs) are often compared unfavorably to deep neural networks (NNs) for lacking the ability to learn representations. Recent efforts to bridge the gap between GPs and deep NNs have yielded a new class of inter-domain variational GPs in which the inducing variables correspond to hidden units of a feedforward NN. In this work, we examine some practical issues associated with this approach and propose an extension that leverages the orthogonal decomposition of GPs to mitigate these limitations. In particular, we introduce spherical inter-domain features to construct more flexible data-dependent basis functions for both the principal and orthogonal components of the GP approximation and show that incorporating NN activation features under this framework not only alleviates these shortcomings but is more scalable than alternative strategies. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

We present Simplex Random Features (SimRFs), a new random feature (RF) mechanism for unbiased approximation of the softmax and Gaussian kernels by geometrical correlation of random projection vectors. We prove that SimRFs provide the smallest possible mean square error (MSE) on unbiased estimates of these kernels among the class of weight-independent geometrically-coupled positive random feature (PRF) mechanisms, substantially outperforming the previously most accurate Orthogonal Random Features (ORFs) at no observable extra cost. We present a more computationally expensive SimRFs+ variant, which we prove is asymptotically optimal in the broader family of weight-dependent geometrical coupling schemes (which permit correlations between random vector directions and norms). In extensive empirical studies, we show consistent gains provided by SimRFs in settings including pointwise kernel estimation, nonparametric classification and scalable Transformers.

Despite being a fundamental building block for reinforcement learning, Markov decision processes (MDPs) often suffer from ambiguity in model parameters. Robust MDPs are proposed to overcome this challenge by optimizing the worst-case performance under ambiguity. While robust MDPs can provide reliable policies with limited data, their worst-case performances are often overly conservative, and so they do not offer practical insights into the actual performance of these reliable policies. This paper proposes robust satisficing MDPs (RSMDPs), where the expected returns of feasible policies are softly-constrained to achieve a user-specified target under ambiguity. We derive a tractable reformulation for RSMDPs and develop a first-order method for solving large instances. Experimental results demonstrate that RSMDPs can prescribe policies to achieve their targets, which are much higher than the optimal worst-case returns computed by robust MDPs. Moreover, the average and percentile performances of our model are competitive among other models. We also demonstrate the scalability of the proposed algorithm compared with a state-of-the-art commercial solver.

In the context of adversarial robustness, we make three strongly related contributions. First, we prove that while attacking ReLU classifiers is $\mathit{NP}$-hard, ensuring their robustness at training time is $\Sigma^2_P$-hard (even on a single example). This asymmetry provides a rationale for the fact that robust classifications approaches are frequently fooled in the literature. Second, we show that inference-time robustness certificates are not affected by this asymmetry, by introducing a proof-of-concept approach named Counter-Attack (CA). Indeed, CA displays a reversed asymmetry: running the defense is $\mathit{NP}$-hard, while attacking it is $\Sigma_2^P$-hard. Finally, motivated by our previous result, we argue that adversarial attacks can be used in the context of robustness certification, and provide an empirical evaluation of their effectiveness. As a byproduct of this process, we also release UG100, a benchmark dataset for adversarial attacks.

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models is the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. For problems with high-dimensional latent variables and large datasets, EM scales poorly because it needs to invert as many large covariance matrices as the number of data points. We introduce probabilistic unrolling, a method that combines Monte Carlo sampling with iterative linear solvers to circumvent matrix inversion. Our theoretical analyses reveal that unrolling and backpropagation through the iterations of the solver can accelerate gradient estimation for maximum likelihood estimation. In experiments on simulated and real data, we demonstrate that probabilistic unrolling learns latent Gaussian models up to an order of magnitude faster than gradient EM, with minimal losses in model performance.

With the introduction of data protection and privacy regulations, it has become crucial to remove the lineage of data on demand from a machine learning (ML) model. In the last few years, there have been notable developments in machine unlearning to remove the information of certain training data efficiently and effectively from ML models. In this work, we explore unlearning for the regression problem, particularly in deep learning models. Unlearning in classification and simple linear regression has been considerably investigated. However, unlearning in deep regression models largely remains an untouched problem till now. In this work, we introduce deep regression unlearning methods that generalize well and are robust to privacy attacks. We propose the Blindspot unlearning method which uses a novel weight optimization process. A randomly initialized model, partially exposed to the retain samples and a copy of the original model are used together to selectively imprint knowledge about the data that we wish to keep and scrub off the information of the data we wish to forget. We also propose a Gaussian fine tuning method for regression unlearning. The existing unlearning metrics for classification are not directly applicable to regression unlearning. Therefore, we adapt these metrics for the regression setting. We conduct regression unlearning experiments for computer vision, natural language processing and forecasting applications. Our methods show excellent performance for all these datasets across all the metrics. Source code: https://github.com/ayu987/deep-regression-unlearning

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

The optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) is a family of risk measures that cover important examples such as entropic risk, conditional value-at-risk and mean-variance models. In this paper, we propose a new episodic risk-sensitive reinforcement learning formulation based on tabular Markov decision processes with recursive OCEs. We design an efficient learning algorithm for this problem based on value iteration and upper confidence bound. We derive an upper bound on the regret of the proposed algorithm, and also establish a minimax lower bound. Our bounds show that the regret rate achieved by our proposed algorithm has optimal dependence on the number of episodes and the number of actions.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

We analyze continual learning on a sequence of separable linear classification tasks with binary labels. We show theoretically that learning with weak regularization reduces to solving a sequential max-margin problem, corresponding to a special case of the Projection Onto Convex Sets (POCS) framework. We then develop upper bounds on the forgetting and other quantities of interest under various settings with recurring tasks, including cyclic and random orderings of tasks. We discuss several practical implications to popular training practices like regularization scheduling and weighting. We point out several theoretical differences between our continual classification setting and a recently studied continual regression setting.