ICML 2020 Papers

In many predictive decision-making scenarios, such as credit scoring and academic testing, a decision-maker must construct a model that accounts for agents’ propensity to “game” the decision rule by changing their features so as to receive better decisions. Whereas the strategic classification literature has previously assumed that agents’ outcomes are not causally affected by their features (and thus that strategic agents’ goal is deceiving the decision-maker), we join concurrent work in modeling agents’ outcomes as a function of their changeable attributes. As our main contribution, we provide efficient algorithms for learning decision rules that optimize three distinct decision-maker objectives in a realizable linear setting: accurately predicting agents’ post-gaming outcomes (prediction risk minimization), incentivizing agents to improve these outcomes (agent outcome maximization), and estimating the coefficients of the true underlying model (parameter estimation). Our algorithms circumvent a hardness result of Miller et al. (2019) by allowing the decision maker to test a sequence of decision rules and observe agents’ responses, in effect performing causal interventions through the decision rules.

In many applications areas—lending, education, and online recommenders, for example—fairness and equity concerns emerge when a machine learning system interacts with a dynamically changing environment to produce both immediate and long-term effects for individuals and demographic groups. We discuss causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) as a unifying framework for the recent literature on fairness in such dynamical systems. We show that this formulation affords several new directions of inquiry to the modeler, where sound causal assumptions can be expressed and manipulated. We emphasize the importance of computing interventional quantities in the dynamical fairness setting, and show how causal assumptions enable simulation (when environment dynamics are known) and estimation by adjustment (when dynamics are unknown) of intervention on short- and long-term outcomes, at both the group and individual levels.

Latent confounders—unobserved variables that influence both treatment and outcome—can bias estimates of causal effects. In some cases, these confounders are shared across observations, e.g. all students taking a course are influenced by the course’s difficulty in addition to any educational interventions they receive individually. This paper shows how to semiparametrically model latent confounders that have this structure and thereby improve estimates of causal effects. The key innovations are a hierarchical Bayesian model, Gaussian processes with structured latent confounders (GP-SLC), and a Monte Carlo inference algorithm for this model based on elliptical slice sampling. GP-SLC provides principled Bayesian uncertainty estimates of individual treatment effect with minimal assumptions about the functional forms relating confounders, covariates, treatment, and outcome. Finally, this paper shows GP-SLC is competitive with or more accurate than widely used causal inference techniques on three benchmark datasets, including the Infant Health and Development Program and a dataset showing the effect of changing temperatures on state-wide energy consumption across New England.

Causal effect identifiability is concerned with establishing the effect of intervening on a set of variables on another set of variables from observational or interventional distributions under causal assumptions that are usually encoded in the form of a causal graph. Most of the results of this literature implicitly assume that every variable modeled in the graph is measured in the available distributions. In practice, however, the data collections of the different studies considered do not measure the same variables, consistently. In this paper, we study the causal effect identifiability problem when the available distributions encompass different sets of variables, which we refer to as identification under partial-observability. We study a number of properties of the factors that comprise a causal effect under various levels of abstraction, and then characterize the relationship between them with respect to their status relative to the identification of a targeted intervention. We establish a sufficient graphical criterion for determining whether the effects are identifiable from partially-observed distributions. Finally, building on these graphical properties, we develop an algorithm that returns a formula for a causal effect in terms of the available distributions.

In this article, we propose novel structural nested models to estimate causal effects of continuous treatments based on mobile health data. To find the treatment regime which optimizes the short-term outcomes for the patients, we define the weighted lag K advantage. The optimal treatment regime is then defined to be the one which maximizes this advantage. This method imposes minimal assumptions on the data generating process. Statistical inference can also be provided for the estimated parameters. Simulation studies and an application to the Ohio type 1 diabetes dataset show that our method could provide meaningful insights for dose suggestions with mobile health data.

Frank-Wolfe algorithm is an efficient method for optimizing non-convex constrained problems. However, most of existing methods focus on the first-order case. In real-world applications, the gradient is not always available. To address the problem of lacking gradient in many applications, we propose two new stochastic zeroth-order Frank-Wolfe algorithms and theoretically proved that they have a faster convergence rate than existing methods for non-convex problems. Specifically, the function queries oracle of the proposed faster zeroth-order Frank-Wolfe (FZFW) method is $O(\frac{n^{1/2}d}{\epsilon^2})$ which can match the iteration complexity of the first-order counterpart approximately. As for the proposed faster zeroth-order conditional gradient sliding (FZCGS) method, its function queries oracle is improved to $O(\frac{n^{1/2}d}{\epsilon})$, indicating that its iteration complexity is even better than that of its first-order counterpart NCGS-VR. In other words, the iteration complelxity of the accelerated first-order Frank-Wolfe method NCGS-VR is suboptimal. Then, we proposed a new algorithm to improve its IFO (incremental first-order oracle) to $O(\frac{n^{1/2}}{\epsilon})$. At last, the empirical studies on benchmark datasets validate our theoretical results.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have recently achieved remarkable successes in various sequential decision making tasks, leveraging advances in methods for training large deep networks. However, these methods usually require large amounts of training data, which is often a big problem for real-world applications. One natural question to ask is whether learning good representations for states and using larger networks helps in learning better policies. In this paper, we try to study if increasing input dimensionality helps improve performance and sample efficiency of model-free deep RL algorithms. To do so, we propose an online feature extractor network (OFENet) that uses neural nets to produce \emph{good} representations to be used as inputs to an off-policy RL algorithm. Even though the high dimensionality of input is usually thought to make learning of RL agents more difficult, we show that the RL agents in fact learn more efficiently with the high-dimensional representation than with the lower-dimensional state observations. We believe that stronger feature propagation together with larger networks allows RL agents to learn more complex functions of states and thus improves the sample efficiency. Through numerical experiments, we show that the proposed method achieves much higher sample efficiency and better performance. Codes for the proposed method are available at http://www.merl.com/research/license/OFENet

Out-of-training-distribution (OOD) scenarios are a common challenge of learning agents at deployment, typically leading to arbitrary deductions and poorly-informed decisions. In principle, detection of and adaptation to OOD scenes can mitigate their adverse effects. In this paper, we highlight the limitations of current approaches to novel driving scenes and propose an epistemic uncertainty-aware planning method, called \emph{robust imitative planning} (RIP). Our method can detect and recover from some distribution shifts, reducing the overconfident and catastrophic extrapolations in OOD scenes. If the model’s uncertainty is too great to suggest a safe course of action, the model can instead query the expert driver for feedback, enabling sample-efficient online adaptation, a variant of our method we term \emph{adaptive robust imitative planning} (AdaRIP). Our methods outperform current state-of-the-art approaches in the nuScenes \emph{prediction} challenge, but since no benchmark evaluating OOD detection and adaption currently exists to assess \emph{control}, we introduce an autonomous car novel-scene benchmark, \texttt{CARNOVEL}, to evaluate the robustness of driving agents to a suite of tasks with distribution shifts, where our methods outperform all the baselines.

Building accurate language models that capture meaningful long-term dependencies is a core challenge in natural language processing. Towards this end, we present a calibration-based approach to measure long-term discrepancies between a generative sequence model and the true distribution, and use these discrepancies to improve the model. Empirically, we show that state-of-the-art language models, including LSTMs and Transformers, are miscalibrated: the entropy rates of their generations drift dramatically upward over time. We then provide provable methods to mitigate this phenomenon. Furthermore, we show how this calibration-based approach can also be used to measure the amount of memory that language models use for prediction.

We present CURL: Contrastive Unsupervised Representations for Reinforcement Learning. CURL extracts high-level features from raw pixels using contrastive learning and performs off-policy control on top of the extracted features. CURL outperforms prior pixel-based methods, both model-based and model-free, on complex tasks in the DeepMind Control Suite and Atari Games showing 1.9x and 1.2x performance gains at the 100K environment and interaction steps benchmarks respectively. On the DeepMind Control Suite, CURL is the first image-based algorithm to nearly match the sample-efficiency of methods that use state-based features. Our code is open-sourced and available at https://www.github.com/MishaLaskin/curl.

Mutual information (MI) minimization has gained considerable interests in various machine learning tasks. However, estimating and minimizing MI in high-dimensional spaces remains a challenging problem, especially when only samples, rather than distribution forms, are accessible. Previous works mainly focus on MI lower bound approximation, which is not applicable to MI minimization problems. In this paper, we propose a novel Contrastive Log-ratio Upper Bound (CLUB) of mutual information. We provide a theoretical analysis of the properties of CLUB and its variational approximation. Based on this upper bound, we introduce a MI minimization training scheme and further accelerate it with a negative sampling strategy. Simulation studies on Gaussian distributions show the reliable estimation ability of CLUB. Real-world MI minimization experiments, including domain adaptation and information bottleneck, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The code is at https://github.com/Linear95/CLUB.

We study the problem of learning Granger causality between event types from asynchronous, interdependent, multi-type event sequences. Existing work suffers from either limited model flexibility or poor model explainability and thus fails to uncover Granger causality across a wide variety of event sequences with diverse event interdependency. To address these weaknesses, we propose CAUSE (Causality from AttribUtions on Sequence of Events), a novel framework for the studied task. The key idea of CAUSE is to first implicitly capture the underlying event interdependency by fitting a neural point process, and then extract from the process a Granger causality statistic using an axiomatic attribution method. Across multiple datasets riddled with diverse event interdependency, we demonstrate that CAUSE achieves superior performance on correctly inferring the inter-type Granger causality over a range of state-of-the-art methods.

We introduce a new budgeted framework for online influence maximization, considering the total cost of an advertising campaign instead of the common cardinality constraint on a chosen influencer set. Our approach models better the real-world setting where the cost of influencers varies and advertizers want to find the best value for their overall social advertising budget. We propose an algorithm assuming an independent cascade diffusion model and edge-level semi-bandit feedback, and provide both theoretical and experimental results. Our analysis is also valid for the cardinality-constraint setting and improves the state of the art regret bound in this case.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) variants approximately minimize divergences between the model and the data distribution using a discriminator. Wasserstein GANs (WGANs) enjoy superior empirical performance, however, unlike in f-GANs, the discriminator does not provide an estimate for the ratio between model and data densities, which is useful in applications such as inverse reinforcement learning. To overcome this limitation, we propose an new training objective where we additionally optimize over a set of importance weights over the generated samples. By suitably constraining the feasible set of importance weights, we obtain a family of objectives which includes and generalizes the original f-GAN and WGAN objectives. We show that a natural extension outperforms WGANs while providing density ratios as in f-GAN, and demonstrate empirical success on distribution modeling, density ratio estimation and image generation.

Neural architecture search (NAS) has become an important approach to automatically find effective architectures. To cover all possible good architectures, we need to search in an extremely large search space with billions of candidate architectures. More critically, given a large search space, we may face a very challenging issue of space explosion. However, due to the limitation of computational resources, we can only sample a very small proportion of the architectures, which provides insufficient information for the training. As a result, existing methods may often produce sub-optimal architectures. To alleviate this issue, we propose a curriculum search method that starts from a small search space and gradually incorporates the learned knowledge to guide the search in a large space. With the proposed search strategy, our Curriculum Neural Architecture Search (CNAS) method significantly improves the search efficiency and finds better architectures than existing NAS methods. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) achieves significant empirical successes. However, MARL suffers from the curse of many agents. In this paper, we exploit the symmetry of agents in MARL. In the most generic form, we study a mean-field MARL problem. Such a mean-field MARL is defined on mean-field states, which are distributions that are supported on continuous space. Based on the mean embedding of the distributions, we propose MF-FQI algorithm, which solves the mean-field MARL and establishes a non-asymptotic analysis for MF-FQI algorithm. We highlight that MF-FQI algorithm enjoys a “blessing of many agents” property in the sense that a larger number of observed agents improves the performance of MF-FQI algorithm.

We consider the study of a classification model whose properties are impossible to estimate using a validation set, either due to the absence of such a set or because access to the classifier, even as a black-box, is impossible. Instead, only aggregate statistics on the rate of positive predictions in each of several sub-populations are available, as well as the true rates of positive labels in each of these sub-populations. We show that these aggregate statistics can be used to lower-bound the discrepancy of a classifier, which is a measure that balances inaccuracy and unfairness. To this end, we define a new measure of unfairness, equal to the fraction of the population on which the classifier behaves differently, compared to its global, ideally fair behavior, as defined by the measure of equalized odds. We propose an efficient and practical procedure for finding the best possible lower bound on the discrepancy of the classifier, given the aggregate statistics, and demonstrate in experiments the empirical tightness of this lower bound, as well as its possible uses on various types of problems, ranging from estimating the quality of voting polls to measuring the effectiveness of patient identification from internet search queries. The code and data are available at https://github.com/sivansabato/bfa.

The use of machine learning algorithms in finance, medicine, and criminal justice can deeply impact human lives. As a consequence, research into interpretable machine learning has rapidly grown in an attempt to better control and fix possible sources of mistakes and biases. Tree ensembles, in particular, offer a good prediction quality in various domains, but the concurrent use of multiple trees reduces the interpretability of the ensemble. Against this background, we study born-again tree ensembles, i.e., the process of constructing a single decision tree of minimum size that reproduces the exact same behavior as a given tree ensemble in its entire feature space. To find such a tree, we develop a dynamic-programming based algorithm that exploits sophisticated pruning and bounding rules to reduce the number of recursive calls. This algorithm generates optimal born-again trees for many datasets of practical interest, leading to classifiers which are typically simpler and more interpretable without any other form of compromise.

Learning a good representation is an essential component for deep reinforcement learning (RL). Representation learning is especially important in multitask and partially observable settings where building a representation of the unknown environment is crucial to solve the tasks. Here we introduce Predictions of Bootstrapped Latents (PBL), a simple and flexible self-supervised representation learning algorithm for multitask deep RL. PBL builds on multistep predictive representations of future observations, and focuses on capturing structured information about environment dynamics. Specifically, PBL trains its representation by predicting latent embeddings of future observations. These latent embeddings are themselves trained to be predictive of the aforementioned representations. These predictions form a bootstrapping effect, allowing the agent to learn more about the key aspects of the environment dynamics. In addition, by defining prediction tasks completely in latent space, PBL provides the flexibility of using multimodal observations involving pixel images, language instructions, rewards and more. We show in our experiments that PBL delivers across-the-board improved performance over state of the art deep RL agents in the DMLab-30 multitask setting.