Weak Supervision

The evaluation and post-training of large language models (LLMs) rely on supervision, but strong supervision for difficult tasks is often unavailable, especially when evaluating strong models. In such cases, models have been demonstrated to exploit evaluation schemes built on such imperfect supervision, leading to deceptive results. However, underutilized in LLM research, a wealth of mechanism design research focuses on game-theoretic *incentive compatibility* - eliciting honest and informative answers with weak supervision. Drawing from this literature, we introduce the peer prediction method for model evaluation and post-training. It rewards honest and informative answers over deceptive and uninformative ones, using a metric based on mutual predictability and without requiring ground truth labels. We demonstrate the method's effectiveness and resistance to deception, with both theoretical guarantees and empirical validation on models with up to 405B parameters. We show that training an 8B model with peer prediction-based reward recovers most of the drop in truthfulness due to prior malicious finetuning, even when the reward is produced by a 0.135B language model with no finetuning. On the evaluation front, in contrast to LLM-as-a-Judge which requires strong and trusted judges, we discover an inverse scaling property in peer prediction, where, surprisingly, resistance to deception is *strengthened* as the capability gap between the experts and participants *widens*, enabling reliable evaluation of strong models with weak supervision. In particular, LLM-as-a-Judge become worse than random guess when facing deceptive models 5-20$\times$ the judge's size, while peer prediction thrives when such gaps are large, including in cases with over 100$\times$ size difference.

Conventional wisdom in selecting supervision data for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) is to prioritize datasets that are intuitively similar to the target task (e.g. text-rich v.s. vision-centric). However, it remains unclear how reliably such similarity translates into improved performance on the test benchmarks. In this paper, we take the first step to study the problem in MLLMs: can we predict a training data's influence on a target benchmark even before any training takes place? To answer this question, we first conduct an in-depth analysis using 14 vision-language datasets covering 7 diverse tasks. Our analysis shows that intuitive task similarity is unreliable in predicting task generalizability, and that transfer depends on the specific dataset rather than the broader task category. We propose DATAPROPHET, a training-free, simple yet effective metric based on multimodal perplexity, similarity, and data diversity. Our experiments demonstrate that the influence rankings for different supervision datasets derived from DATAPROPHET is strongly-correlated with rankings based on the actual performance increase after training, with a Kendall’s $\tau$ correlation coefficient of 86.0\%. Moreover, we show that DATAPROPHET can help select better supervision data, achieving up to 6.9\% improvement in average over uniform selection, 1.4\% over SoTA training-based baseline, and 0.2\% higher than oracle experiment performance-based selection. Our code and data will be released.

Weak-to-Strong generalization (W2SG) is a new trend to elicit the full capabilities of a strong model with supervision from a weak model. While existing W2SG studies focus on simple tasks like binary classification, we extend this paradigm to complex interactive decision-making environments. Specifically, we fine-tune a strong model with trajectories of intermediate actions generated by a weak model. Motivated by the human learning process, we propose to generalize not only successful knowledge but also failed experiences so that the strong model can learn from the failed trajectories accumulated by weak models. To effectively and efficiently elicit the potential of strong agents, we further construct ``trajectory trees," a hierarchical representation that organizes weak model-generated action trajectories, coupled with Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to optimize the strong model. Through theoretical analysis, we provide formal guarantees for the effectiveness of our method in improving W2SG performance. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate substantial improvements in reasoning and decision-making capabilities across diverse task domains, validating the scalability and robustness of our proposed framework. Our code is available at: https://github.com/yeruimeng/TraTree.git.

Preference alignment is an essential step in adapting large language models (LLMs) to human values, but existing approaches typically depend on costly human annotations or large-scale API-based models. We explore whether a weak LLM can instead act as an effective annotator. We surprisingly find that selecting only a subset of a weak LLM's highly confident samples leads to substantially better performance than using full human annotations. Building on this insight, we propose **C**onfidence-**W**eighted **P**reference **O**ptimization (CW-PO), a general framework that re-weights training samples by a weak LLM’s confidence and can be applied across different preference optimization objectives. Notably, the model aligned by CW-PO with just 20\% of human annotations outperforms the model trained with 100\% of annotations under standard DPO. These results suggest that weak LLMs, when paired with confidence weighting, can dramatically reduce the cost of preference alignment while even outperforming methods trained on fully human-labeled data.

Clustering is a fundamental primitive in unsupervised learning. However, classical algorithms for $k$-clustering (such as $k$-median and $k$-means) assume access to exact pairwise distances---an unrealistic requirement in many modern applications. We study clustering in the \emph{Rank-model (R-model)}, where access to distances is entirely replaced by a \emph{quadruplet oracle} that provides only relative distance comparisons. In practice, such an oracle can represent learned models or human feedback, and is expected to be noisy and entail an access cost. Given a metric space with $n$ input items, we design randomized algorithms that, using only a noisy quadruplet oracle, compute a set of $O(k \cdot \mathsf{polylog}(n))$ centers along with a mapping from the input items to the centers such that the clustering cost of the mapping is at most constant times the optimum $k$-clustering cost. Our method achieves a query complexity of $O(n\cdot k \cdot \mathsf{polylog}(n))$ for arbitrary metric spaces and improves to $O((n+k^2) \cdot \mathsf{polylog}(n))$ when the underlying metric has bounded doubling dimension. When the metric has bounded doubling dimension we can further improve the approximation from constant to $1+\varepsilon$, for any arbitrarily small constant $\varepsilon\in(0,1)$, while preserving the same asymptotic query complexity. Our framework demonstrates how noisy, low-cost oracles, such as those derived from large language models, can be systematically integrated into scalable clustering algorithms.

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems approach and surpass expert human performance across a broad range of tasks, obtaining high-quality human supervision for evaluation and training becomes increasingly challenging. Our focus is on tasks that require deep knowledge and skills of multiple domains. Unfortunately, even the best human experts are knowledgeable only in a single narrow area, and will not be able to evaluate the correctness of advanced AI systems on such superhuman tasks. However, based on their narrow expertise, humans may provide a weak signal, i.e., a *complementary label* indicating an option that is incorrect. For example, a cardiologist could state that ``this is not related to cardiology,'' even if they cannot identify the true disease. Based on this weak signal, we propose a scalable oversight framework that enables us to evaluate frontier AI systems without the need to prepare the ground truth. We derive an *unbiased* estimator of top-1 accuracy from complementary labels and quantify how many complementary labels are needed to match the variance of ordinary labels. We further introduce two estimators to combine scarce ordinary labels with abundant complementary labels. We provide finite-sample deviation guarantees for both complementary-only and the mixed estimators. Empirically, we show that we can evaluate the output of large language models without the ground truth, if we have complementary labels. We further show that we can train an AI system with such weak signals: we show how we can design an agentic AI system automatically that can perform better by these partitioned human supervision.

Video anomaly detection (VAD) aims to detect anomalies that deviate from what is expected. In open-world scenarios, the expected events may change as requirements change. For example, not wearing a mask may be considered abnormal during a flu outbreak but normal otherwise. However, existing methods assume that the definition of anomalies is invariable, and thus are not applicable to the open world. To address this, we propose a novel open-world VAD paradigm with variable definitions, allowing guided detection through user-provided natural language at inference time. This paradigm necessitates establishing a robust mapping from video and textual definition to anomaly scores. Therefore, we propose LaGoVAD (**La**nguage-**g**uided **O**pen-world **V**ideo **A**nomaly **D**etector), a model that dynamically adapts anomaly definitions under weak supervision with two regularization strategies: diversifying the relative durations of anomalies via dynamic video synthesis, and enhancing feature robustness through contrastive learning with negative mining. Training such adaptable models requires diverse anomaly definitions, but existing datasets typically provide labels without semantic descriptions. To bridge this gap, we collect PreVAD (**Pre**-training **V**ideo **A**nomaly **D**ataset), the largest and most diverse video anomaly dataset to date, featuring 35,279 annotated videos with multi-level category labels and descriptions that explicitly define anomalies. Zero-shot experiments on seven datasets demonstrate LaGoVAD's SOTA performance. Our dataset and code are released at https://github.com/Kamino666/LaGoVAD-PreVAD.

We initiate a unified theoretical and algorithmic study of a key problem in weak-to-strong (W2S) generalization: when fine-tuning a strong pre-trained student with pseudolabels from a weaker teacher on a downstream task with spurious correlations, does W2S happen, and how to improve it upon failures? We consider two sources of spurious correlations caused by group imbalance: (i) a weak teacher fine-tuned on group-imbalanced labeled data with a minority group of fraction $\eta_\ell$, and (ii) a group-imbalanced unlabeled set pseudolabeled by the teacher with a minority group of fraction $\eta_u$. Theoretically, a precise characterization of W2S gain at the proportional asymptotic limit shows that W2S always happens with sufficient pseudolabels when $\eta_u = \eta_\ell$ but may fail when $\eta_u \ne \eta_\ell$, where W2S gain diminishes as $(\eta_u - \eta_\ell)^2$ increases. Our theory is corroborated by extensive experiments on various spurious correlation benchmarks and teacher-student pairs. To boost W2S performance upon failures, we further propose a simple, effective algorithmic remedy that retrains the strong student on its high-confidence data subset after W2S fine-tuning. Our algorithm is group-label-free and achieves consistent, substantial improvements over vanilla W2S fine-tuning.