Causal Recommendation

Controlling stylistic attributes of Large Language Models (LLMs), such as formality or conceptual complexity, is crucial for effective human-AI interaction. However, current methods often suffer from discreteness, reliance on expensive parallel corpora, and instability, limiting their practical utility. This paper introduces a novel framework for robust activation steering that eliminates the need for parallel corpora, enabling continuous, fine-grained, and linear control over LLM outputs. Our key insight is to reframe Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) as a causal intervention tool. By contrasting activations on identical inputs with and without a LoRA perturbation trained via a contrastive objective, we separate the influence of content. To enhance reliability, we introduce a robust aggregation pipeline that uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for denoising and the geometric median for centrality estimation, yielding a stable and disentangled style vector. At inference, this vector allows for precise bidirectional control via activation steering with negligible computational overhead. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on controlling conceptual complexity, text detoxification, and formality control. Our method not only provides superior control but also generalizes across different models and tasks, and enables simultaneous multi-attribute control.

Preference‑based reward learning is widely used for shaping agent behavior to match a user's preference, yet its sparse binary feedback makes it especially vulnerable to causal confusion. The learned reward often latches onto spurious features that merely co‑occur with preferred trajectories during training, collapsing when those correlations disappear or reverse at test time. We introduce ReCouPLe, a lightweight framework that uses natural language rationales to provide the missing causal signal. Each rationale is treated as a guiding projection axis in embedding space, training the model to score trajectories based on features aligned with that axis while de-emphasizing context that is unrelated to the stated reason. Because identical rationales can arise across multiple tasks (e.g., "_it avoids collisions with a fragile object_"), ReCouPLe naturally reuses the same causal direction whenever tasks share semantics, and transfers preference knowledge to novel tasks without extra data or language‑model fine‑tuning. Our learned reward model can ground preferences on the articulated reason, aligning better with user intent and generalizing beyond spurious features.

Causal discovery from i.i.d. observational data is known to be generally ill-posed. We demonstrate that if we have access to the distribution induced by a structural causal model, and additional data from (in the best case) *only two* environments that sufficiently differ in the noise statistics, the unique causal graph is identifiable. Notably, this is the first result in the literature that guarantees the entire causal graph recovery with a constant number of environments and arbitrary nonlinear mechanisms. Our only constraint is the Gaussianity of the noise terms; however, we propose potential ways to relax this requirement. Of interest on its own, we expand on the well-known duality between independent component analysis (ICA) and causal discovery; recent advancements have shown that nonlinear ICA can be solved from multiple environments, at least as many as the number of sources: we show that the same can be achieved for causal discovery while having access to much less auxiliary information.

Interventional causal discovery seeks to identify causal relations by leveraging distributional changes introduced by interventions, even in the presence of latent confounders. Beyond the spurious dependencies induced by latent confounders, we highlight a common yet often overlooked challenge in the problem due to post-treatment selection, in which samples are selectively included in datasets after interventions. This fundamental challenge widely exists in biological studies; for example, in gene expression analysis, both observational and interventional samples are retained only if they meet quality control criteria (e.g., highly active cells). Neglecting post-treatment selection may introduce spurious dependencies and distributional changes under interventions, which can mimic causal responses, thereby distorting causal discovery results and challenging existing causal formulations. To address this, we introduce a novel causal formulation that explicitly models post-treatment selection and reveals how its differential reactions to interventions can distinguish causal relations from selection patterns, allowing us to go beyond traditional equivalence classes toward the underlying true causal structure. We then characterize its Markov properties and propose a $\mathcal{F}$ine-grained $\mathcal{I}$nterventional equivalence class, named $\mathcal{FI}$-Markov equivalence, represented by a new graphical diagram, $\mathcal{F}$-PAG. Finally, we develop a provably sound and complete algorithm, $\mathcal{F}$-FCI, to identify causal relations, latent confounders, and post-treatment selection up to $\mathcal{FI}$-Markov equivalence, using both observational and interventional data. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method recovers causal relations despite the presence of both selection and latent confounders.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from right-censored survival data is critical in high-stakes applications such as precision medicine and individualized policy-making. Yet, the survival analysis setting poses unique challenges for HTE estimation due to censoring, unobserved counterfactuals, and complex identification assumptions. Despite recent advances, from causal survival forests to survival meta-learners and outcome imputation approaches, evaluation practices remain fragmented and inconsistent. We introduce SurvHTE‐Bench, the first comprehensive benchmark for HTE estimation with censored outcomes. The benchmark spans (i) a modular suite of synthetic datasets with known ground truth, systematically varying causal assumptions and survival dynamics, (ii) semi-synthetic datasets that pair real-world covariates with simulated treatments and outcomes, and (iii) real-world datasets from a twin study (with known ground truth) and from an HIV clinical trial. Across synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world settings, we provide the first rigorous comparison of survival HTE methods under diverse conditions and realistic assumption violations. SurvHTE‐Bench establishes a foundation for fair, reproducible, and extensible evaluation of causal survival methods.

Causal inference estimates the treatment effect by comparing the potential outcomes of the treated and control groups. Due to the existence of confounders, the distributions of treated and control groups are imbalanced, resulting in limited generalization ability of the outcome prediction model, \ie, the prediction model trained on one group cannot perform well on the other group. To tackle this, existing methods usually adjust confounders to learn balanced representations for aligning the distributions. However, these methods could suffer from the over-balancing issue that predictive information about outcomes is removed during adjustment. In this paper, we propose to adjust the outcome prediction model to improve its generalization ability on both groups simultaneously, so that the over-balancing issue caused by confounder adjustment can be avoided. To address the challenge of large distribution discrepancy between groups during model adjustment, we propose to generate intermediate groups through the Wasserstein geodesic, which smoothly connects the control and treated groups. Based on this, we gradually adjust the outcome prediction model between consecutive groups by a self-training paradigm. To further enhance the performance of the model, we filter the generated samples to select high-quality samples for learning. We provide the theoretical analysis regarding our method, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several benchmark datasets in terms of multiple evaluation metrics.

Learning the dynamic causal structure is a difficult challenge in discovering causality from time series. Most existing studies rely on distributional or structural invariance to uncover the underlying causal dynamics, assuming stationary or partially stationary causality, which frequently conflicts with complex causal relationships in the real world. This boosts temporal causal discovery to encompass fully dynamic causality, where both instantaneous and lagged causal dependencies may change over time, bringing significant challenges to the efficiency and stability of causal discovery. To tackle these challenges, we introduce DyCausal, a dynamic causal structure learning framework that leverages convolutional networks to effectively model causal structures within coarse-grained time windows, and introduces linear interpolation to refine causal structures to each time step and recover time-varying causal graphs. In addition, we propose an acyclic constraint based on matrix norm scaling. It is more stable both theoretically and empirically, and constrains loops in dynamic causal structures with improved efficiency. Evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets prove that DyCausal significantly outperforms existing methods and identifies fully dynamic causal structures from coarse to fine.

Chain-of-thought explanations are widely used to inspect the decision process of large language models (LLMs) and to evaluate the trustworthiness of model outputs, making them important for effective collaboration between LLMs and humans. We demonstrate that preference optimization -- a key step in the alignment phase -- can inadvertently reduce the faithfulness of these explanations. This occurs because the reward model (RM), which guides alignment, is tasked with optimizing both the expected quality of the response and the appropriateness of the explanations (e.g., minimizing bias or adhering to safety standards), creating potential conflicts. The RM lacks a mechanism to assess the consistency between the model’s internal decision process and the generated explanation. Consequently, the LLM may engage in ``reward hacking'' by producing a final response that scores highly while giving an explanation tailored to maximize reward rather than accurately reflecting its reasoning. To address this issue, we propose enriching the RM’s input with a causal attribution of the prediction, allowing the RM to detect discrepancies between the generated self-explanation and the model's decision process. In controlled settings, we show that this approach reduces the tendency of the LLM to generate misleading explanations.

We present FLOP (Fast Learning of Order and Parents), a score-based causal discovery algorithm for linear models. It pairs fast parent selection with iterative Cholesky-based score updates, cutting run-times over prior algorithms. This makes it feasible to fully embrace discrete search, enabling iterated local search with principled order initialization to find graphs with scores at or close to the global optimum. The resulting structures are highly accurate across benchmarks, with near-perfect recovery in standard settings. This performance calls for revisiting discrete search over graphs as a reasonable approach to causal discovery.

In heterogeneous treatment effect estimation from observational data, the fundamental challenge is that only the factual outcome under the received treatment is observable, while the potential outcomes under other treatments or no treatment can never be observed. As a simple and effective approach, matching aims to predict counterfactual outcomes of the target treatment by leveraging the nearest neighbors within the target group. However, due to limited observational data and the distribution shifts between groups, one cannot always find sufficiently close neighbors in the target group, resulting in inaccurate counterfactual prediction because of the manifold structure of data. To address this, we remove group barriers and propose a matching method that selects neighbors from all samples, not just the target group. This helps find closer neighbors and improves counterfactual prediction. Specifically, we analyze the effect estimation error in matching, which motivates us to propose a self optimal transport model for matching. Based on this, we employ an outcome propagation mechanism via the transport plan for counterfactual prediction, and exploit factual outcomes to learn a distance as the transport cost. The experiments are conducted on both binary and multiple treatment settings to evaluate our method.

While collaborative filtering delivers predictive accuracy and efficiency, and Large Language Models (LLMs) enable expressive and generalizable reasoning, modern recommendation systems must bring these strengths together. Growing user expectations, such as natural-language queries and transparent explanations, further highlight the need for a unified approach. However, doing so is nontrivial. Collaborative signals are often token-efficient but semantically opaque, while LLMs are semantically rich but struggle to model implicit user preferences when trained only on textual inputs. This paper introduces Item-ID + Natural-language Mixture-of-Experts Language Model (IDIOMoE), which treats item interaction histories as a native dialect within the language space, enabling collaborative signals to be understood in the same way as natural language. By splitting the Feed Forward Network of each block of a pretrained LLM into a separate text expert and an item expert with token-type gating, our method avoids destructive interference between text and catalog modalities. IDIOMoE demonstrates strong recommendation performance across both public and proprietary datasets, while preserving the text understanding of the pretrained model.

Causal reasoning lies at the heart of robust and generalizable decision-making, and the *Pearl Causal Hierarchy* provides a formal language for distinguishing between observational ($\mathcal{L}_1$), interventional ($\mathcal{L}_2$), and counterfactual ($\mathcal{L}_3$) levels of reasoning. Existing bandit algorithms that leverage causal knowledge have primarily operated within the $\mathcal{L}_1$ and $\mathcal{L}_2$ regimes, treating each realizable and physical intervention as a distinct arm. That is, they have largely excluded counterfactual quantities due to their perceived inaccessibility. In this paper, we introduce a *counterfactual structural causal bandit* (ctf-SCB) framework which expands the agent's feasible action space beyond conventional observational and interventional arms to include a class of realizable counterfactual actions. Our framework offers a principled extension of structural causal bandits and paves the way for integrating counterfactual reasoning into sequential decision-making.

In recent years, diffusion models (DMs) have achieved remarkable success in recommender systems (RSs), owing to their strong capacity to model the complex distributions of item content and user behaviors. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods pose the danger of generating uncredible content recommendations (e.g., fake news, misinformation) that may significantly harm social well-being, as they primarily emphasize recommendation accuracy while neglecting the credibility of the recommended content. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose Disco, a novel method to steer diffusion models towards credible content recommendation. Specifically, we design a novel disentangled diffusion model to mitigate the harmful influence of uncredible content on the generation process while preserving high recommendation accuracy. This is achieved by reformulating the diffusion objective to encourage generation conditioned on preference-related signals while discouraging generation conditioned on uncredible content-related signals. In addition, to further improve the recommendation credibility, we design a progressively enhanced credible subspace projection that suppresses uncredible content by projecting diffusion targets into the null space of uncredible content. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of Disco in terms of both accurate and credible content recommendations.

Estimating causal effects becomes particularly challenging when outcomes possess complex, non-Euclidean structures, where conventional approaches often fail to capture meaningful structural variation. We introduce a novel framework for topological causal inference, defining treatment effects through changes in the underlying topological structure of outcomes. In our framework, intervention-driven topological shifts across homology are summarized via power-weighted silhouettes. We propose a doubly robust estimator, derive its asymptotic properties, and develop a formal test for the null hypothesis of no topological effect. Empirical studies demonstrate that our approach reliably quantifies treatment effects and remains robust across diverse, complex outcome spaces.

A common approach to mechanistic interpretability is to causally manipulate model representations via targeted interventions in order to understand what those representations encode. Here we ask whether such interventions create out-of-distribution (divergent) representations, and whether this raises concerns about how faithful their resulting explanations are to the target model in its natural state. First, we demonstrate theoretically and empirically that common causal intervention techniques often do shift internal representations away from the natural distribution of the target model. Then, we provide a theoretical analysis of two cases of such divergences: "harmless" divergences that occur in the behavioral null-space of the layer(s) of interest, and "pernicious" divergences that activate hidden network pathways and cause dormant behavioral changes. Finally, in an effort to mitigate the pernicious cases, we apply and modify the Counterfactual Latent (CL) loss from Grant (2025) allowing representations from causal interventions to remain closer to the natural distribution, reducing the likelihood of harmful divergences while preserving the interpretive power of the interventions. Together, these results highlight a path towards more reliable interpretability methods.

Transformers have demonstrated remarkable in-context learning abilities, adapting to new tasks from just a few examples without parameter updates. However, theoretical understanding of this phenomenon typically assumes fixed dependency structures, while real-world sequences exhibit flexible, context-dependent relationships. We address this gap by investigating whether transformers can learn causal structures -- the underlying dependencies between sequence elements -- directly from in-context examples. We propose a novel framework using Markov chains with randomly sampled causal dependencies, where transformers must infer which tokens depend on which predecessors to make accurate predictions. Our key contributions are threefold: (1) We prove that a two-layer transformer with relative position embeddings can implement Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), the optimal statistical algorithm for causal structure inference; (2) Through extensive experiments and parameter-level analysis, we demonstrate that transformers trained on this task learn to approximate BMA, with attention patterns directly reflecting the inferred causal structures; (3) We provide information-theoretic guarantees showing how transformers recover causal dependencies and extend our analysis to continuous dynamical systems, revealing fundamental differences in representational requirements. Our findings bridge the gap between empirical observations of in-context learning and theoretical understanding, showing that transformers can perform sophisticated statistical inference over structural uncertainty.

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are a standard tool in causal modeling, but their suitability for capturing the complexity of large-scale multimodal data is questionable. In practice, real-world multimodal datasets are often collected from heterogeneous generative processes that do not conform to a single DAG. Instead, they may involve multiple, and even opposing, DAG structures with inverse causal directions. To address this gap, in this work, we first propose a novel latent partial causal model tailored for multimodal data representation learning, featuring two latent coupled variables parts connected by an undirected edge, to represent the transfer of knowledge across modalities. Under specific statistical assumptions, we establish an identifiability result, demonstrating that representations learned by MultiModal Contrastive Learning (MMCL) correspond to the latent coupled variables up to a trivial transformation. This result deepens our understanding of the why MMCL works, highlights its potential for representation disentanglement, and expands the utility of pre-trained models like CLIP. Synthetic experiments confirm the robustness of our findings, even when the assumptions are partially violated. Most importantly, experiments on a pre-trained CLIP model embodies disentangled representations, enabling few-shot learning and improving domain generalization across diverse real-world datasets. Together, these contributions push the boundaries of MMCL, both in theory and in practical applications.

We present a systematic method for pruning edges from causal graphs by leveraging tiered knowledge. We characterize conditions under which edges can be removed from a causal graph while preserving the identifiability of (conditional) causal effects. This result enables causal identification on simplified graphs that are substantially smaller than the original graphs. This approach is particularly valuable when researchers are interested in causal relationships within specific tiers while controlling for broader influences from other tiers without fully specifying them. Building on this, we introduce a \emph{query-specific} causal discovery procedure that takes a causal query as an additional input and recovers a reduced graph tailored to the query from observational data. Through theoretical analysis and empirical studies, we demonstrate that our procedure can achieve exponential speedups compared to the existing method when tiered knowledge is available.

Causal discovery with latent variables is a fundamental task. Yet most existing methods rely on strong structural assumptions, such as enforcing specific indicator patterns for latents or restricting how they can interact with others. We argue that a core obstacle to a general, structural-assumption-free approach is the lack of an equivalence characterization: without knowing what can be identified, one generally cannot design methods for how to identify it. In this work, we aim to close this gap for linear non-Gaussian models. We establish the graphical criterion for when two graphs with arbitrary latent structure and cycles are distributionally equivalent, that is, they induce the same observed distribution set. Key to our approach is a new tool, edge rank constraints, which fills a missing piece in the toolbox for latent-variable causal discovery in even broader settings. We further provide a procedure to traverse the whole equivalence class and develop an algorithm to recover models from data up to such equivalence. To our knowledge, this is the first equivalence characterization with latent variables in any parametric setting without structural assumptions, and hence the first structural-assumption-free discovery method. Code and an interactive demo are available at https://equiv.cc.

Causal inference across multiple data sources can improve the generalizability and reproducibility of scientific findings. However, for time-to-event outcomes, data integration methods remain underdeveloped, especially when populations are heterogeneous and privacy constraints prevent direct data pooling. We propose a federated learning method for estimating target site-specific causal effects in multi-source survival settings. Our approach dynamically re-weights source contributions to correct for distributional shifts, while preserving privacy. Leveraging semiparametric efficiency theory under a site-specific exchangeability assumption}, data-adaptive weighting and flexible machine learning, the method achieves double robustness, and it improves efficiency {if at least one source site provides a consistent estimate. Through simulations and two real data applications: (i) multi-site randomized trials of monoclonal antibodies for HIV-1 prevention among cisgender men and transgender persons in the United States, Brazil, Peru, and Switzerland, as well as women in sub-Saharan Africa, and (ii) an analysis of sex disparities across biomarker groups for all-cause mortality using the ``flchain'' dataset, we demonstrate the validity, efficiency gains, and practical utility of the approach. Our findings highlight the promise of federated methods for efficient, privacy-preserving causal survival analysis under distribution shift.