Occupancy Prediction

In this work, we propose a novel link prediction model and further boost it by studying graph incompleteness. First, We introduce MPNN-then-SF, an innovative architecture leveraging structural feature (SF) to guide MPNN's representation pooling, with its implementation, namely Neural Common Neighbor (NCN). NCN exhibits superior expressiveness and scalability compared with existing models, which can be classified into two categories: SF-then-MPNN, augmenting MPNN's input with SF, and SF-and-MPNN, decoupling SF and MPNN. Second, we investigate the impact of graph incompleteness---the phenomenon that some links are unobserved in the input graph---on SF, like the common neighbor. Through dataset visualization, we observe that incompleteness reduces common neighbors and induces distribution shifts, significantly affecting model performance. To address this issue, we propose to use a link prediction model to complete the common neighbor structure. Combining this method with NCN, we propose Neural Common Neighbor with Completion (NCNC). NCN and NCNC outperform recent strong baselines by large margins, and NCNC further surpasses state-of-the-art models in standard link prediction benchmarks.

With the continuous advancement of neural network methodologies, time series prediction has attracted substantial interest over the past decades. Nonetheless, the interpretability of neural networks is insufficient and the utilization of deep learning techniques for prediction necessitates significant computational expenditures, rendering its application arduous in numerous scenarios. In order to tackle this challenge, an interpretable sparse system identification method which does not require a time-consuming training through back-propagation is proposed in this study. This method integrates advantages from both knowledge-based and data-driven approaches, and constructs dictionary functions by leveraging Fourier basis and taking into account both the long-term trends and the short-term fluctuations behind data. By using the $l_1$ norm for sparse optimization, prediction results can be gained with an explicit sparse expression function and an extremely high accuracy. The performance evaluation of the proposed method is conducted on comprehensive benchmark datasets, including ETT, Exchange, and ILI. Results reveal that our proposed method attains a significant overall improvement of more than 20\% in accordance with the most recent state-of-the-art deep learning methodologies. Additionally, our method demonstrates the efficient training capability on only CPUs. Therefore, this study may shed some light onto the realm of time series reconstruction and prediction.

Understanding the 3D structures of protein multimers is crucial, as they play a vital role in regulating various cellular processes. It has been empirically confirmed that the multimer structure prediction (MSP) can be well handled in a step-wise assembly fashion using provided dimer structures and predicted protein-protein interactions (PPIs). However, due to the biological gap in the formation of dimers and larger multimers, directly applying PPI prediction techniques can often cause a poor generalization to the MSP task. To address this challenge, we aim to extend the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales (i.e., chain numbers). Specifically, we propose PromptMSP, a pre-training and Prompt tuning framework for Multimer Structure Prediction. First, we tailor the source and target tasks for effective PPI knowledge learning and efficient inference, respectively. We design PPI-inspired prompt learning to narrow the gaps of two task formats and generalize the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales. We provide a meta-learning strategy to learn a reliable initialization of the prompt model, enabling our prompting framework to effectively adapt to limited data for large-scale multimers. Empirically, we achieve both significant accuracy (RMSD and TM-Score) and efficiency improvements compared to advanced MSP models.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct prediction sets with invalid coverage rates, as the i.i.d. assumption is violated. To address this issue, a recent work, Randomized Smoothed Conformal Prediction (RSCP), was first proposed to certify the robustness of conformal prediction methods to adversarial noise. However, RSCP has two major limitations: (i) its robustness guarantee is flawed when used in practice and (ii) it tends to produce large uncertainty sets. To address these limitations, we first propose a novel framework called RSCP+ to provide provable robustness guarantee in evaluation, which fixes the issues in the original RSCP method. Next, we propose two novel methods, Post-Training Transformation (PTT) and Robust Conformal Training (RCT), to effectively reduce prediction set size with little computation overhead. Experimental results in CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet suggest the baseline method only yields trivial predictions including full label set, while our methods could boost the efficiency by up to $4.36\times$, $5.46\times$, and $16.9\times$ respectively and provide practical robustness guarantee.

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting, where the probabilities of labels can differ between the source and target distributions. Our algorithm relies on constructing confidence intervals for importance weights by propagating uncertainty through a Gaussian elimination algorithm. We evaluate our approach on four datasets: the CIFAR-10 and ChestX-Ray image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart Dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller prediction set sizes compared to several baselines.

Modern machine learning (ML) systems demand substantial training data, often resorting to external sources. Nevertheless, this practice renders them vulnerable to backdoor poisoning attacks. Prior backdoor defense strategies have primarily focused on the identification of backdoored models or poisoned data characteristics, typically operating under the assumption of access to clean data. In this work, we delve into a relatively underexplored challenge: the automatic identification of backdoor data within a poisoned dataset, all under realistic conditions, *i.e.*, without the need for additional clean data or without manually defining a threshold for backdoor detection. We draw an inspiration from the scaled prediction consistency (SPC) technique, which exploits the prediction invariance of poisoned data to an input scaling factor. Based on this, we pose the backdoor data identification problem as a hierarchical data splitting optimization problem, leveraging a novel SPC-based loss function as the primary optimization objective. Our innovation unfolds in several key aspects. First, we revisit the vanilla SPC method, unveiling its limitations in addressing the proposed backdoor identification problem. Subsequently, we develop a bi-level optimization-based approach to precisely identify backdoor data by minimizing the advanced SPC loss. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our proposal against a spectrum of backdoor attacks, encompassing basic label-corrupted attacks as well as more sophisticated clean-label attacks, evaluated across various benchmark datasets. Experiment results show that our approach often surpasses the performance of current baselines in identifying backdoor data points, resulting in about 4\%-36\% improvement in average AUROC. Codes are available at https://github.com/OPTML-Group/BackdoorMSPC.